Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 2

[Dogtown]

Buonasera
Mi permetto di postare (un po' in ritardo) la mia visione..

E' solo la mia opinione personale, lascia il tempo che trova..

Essenzialmente sono d'accordo con gipa69..
Bund in ribasso da maggio 2013. Supporto di breve, come chiusura, 140,20; ora quota 140.90.
BTP in rialzo. Resistenza di breve, come chiusura, 113.425 ; ora quota 113,38
BTP, Bund e Spread tutti su un punto cruciale, difficile fare valutazioni (ma lo è sempre).
Secondo me, per un proseguimento del Trend al Rialzo del BTP e proseguimento del Trend al Ribasso del Bund sono importanti sia i livelli che ho indicato sopra, sia la tenuta al rialzo di 2.48/2.50 sullo Spread BTP/Bund.

Di segui posto i mei grafici:

Grazie y2k

 

[Dogtown]

Le tensioni fiscali al Congresso americano, dove accordi su budget e debito appaiono lontani, minaccia di far deragliare i piani della Federal Reserve per il tapering, l'avvio di un ritiro del Quantitative Easing, atteso forse fin da settembre. E' questa la crescente preoccupazione tra gli economisti, stando a sondaggi del quotidiano Financial Times. La prospettiva di paralisi governative, se mischiata con dati economici non eccessivamente forti, potrebbe convincere la Banca centrale a non agire in occasione del prossimo vertice del 17 e 18 settembre per non danneggiare troppo una crescita ancora modesta. Ethan Harris di Bank of America Merrill Lynch pronostica che la Fed aspettera' in realta' fino a dicembre per frenare gli stimoli all'espansione. Gli appuntamenti fiscali incombono: senza compromessi sul bilancio federale il governo esaurira' i suoi fondi dal primo ottobre, inizio del nuovo anno fiscale. E il tetto sul debito federale potrebbe essere raggiunto entro meta' novembre se non verra' alzato dal Parlamento.

 

[y2k]

Buonasera
Mi permetto di postare (un po' in ritardo) la mia visione..

E' solo la mia opinione personale, lascia il tempo che trova..

Essenzialmente sono d'accordo con gipa69..
Bund in ribasso da maggio 2013. Supporto di breve, come chiusura, 140,20; ora quota 140.90.
BTP in rialzo. Resistenza di breve, come chiusura, 113.425 ; ora quota 113,38
BTP, Bund e Spread tutti su un punto cruciale, difficile fare valutazioni (ma lo è sempre).
Secondo me, per un proseguimento del Trend al Rialzo del BTP e proseguimento del Trend al Ribasso del Bund sono importanti sia i livelli che ho indicato sopra, sia la tenuta al rialzo di 2.48/2.50 sullo Spread BTP/Bund.

Una precisazione inutile...
Lo stabilizzarsi o l'avvicinarsi dei tassi tra Germania e Italia manterrebbe costante o in diminuzione lo Spread. Non vi è dipendenza dei corsi e dei tassi dallo spread, se mai il contrario.
Lo Spread ha una sua valenza come eventuale indicatore di rischio.

Scusate il disturbo.

Buon Ferragosto

 

[Dogtown]

Una precisazione inutile...
Lo stabilizzarsi o l'avvicinarsi dei tassi tra Germania e Italia manterrebbe costante o in diminuzione lo Spread. Non vi è dipendenza dei corsi e dei tassi dallo spread, se mai il contrario.
Lo Spread ha una sua valenza come eventuale indicatore di rischio.

Scusate il disturbo.

Buon Ferragosto

...buon ferragosto anche a te y2k

 

[Dogtown]

Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase, Supporting Fed Forecast

The cost of living in the U.S. rose in July for a third month, supporting the Federal Reserve’s forecast that inflation will move closer to its target.
The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in June, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The advance matched the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core measure, which excludes food and fuel, also climbed 0.2 percent from June.

Fed policy makers have said they will watch inflation figures closely to ensure the U.S. doesn’t slip into a prolonged period of diminishing increases, or disinflation, that would damage the recovery. Macy’s Inc. is among companies having trouble boosting prices as the world’s largest economy struggles to accelerate following a slowdown that began in late 2012.
It’s a “pretty subdued pace of inflation but not getting any weaker,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York and a former Fed researcher. That’s “probably a pretty welcome development for the Fed.”
Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 0.1 percent to a gain of 0.5 percent.
Another Labor Department report today showed claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in almost six years, signaling the job market continues to mend. The number of applications for unemployment insurance payments declined by 15,000 to 320,000 in the week ended Aug. 10, the fewest since October 2007. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 335,000.
Manufacturing Expands
Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in August for a third month, another report showed. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 8.2 from 9.5 last month. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Stock-index futures dropped, adding to earlier losses, after the reports signaled an improving U.S. economy may prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to curtail monthly bond purchases. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in September dropped 0.8 percent to 1,669.3 at 8:55 a.m. in New York.
The increase in consumer prices last month was led by rising costs for clothing, medical care, tobacco and new automobiles. Declines in household furnishings, airline fares and used cars and trucks limited the advance.
Core Prices
The core gauge advanced 0.2 percent for a third consecutive month, and matched the median forecast of economists surveyed.
Overall consumer prices increased 2 percent in the 12 months ended in July after a 1.8 percent year-over-year gain the prior month.
The core CPI rose 1.7 percent from July 2012, following a 1.6 percent advance in the prior 12-month period that was the smallest since June 2011.
Energy costs increased 0.2 percent from a month earlier, while food costs climbed 0.1 percent.
Even with inflation under control, paychecks are failing to keep pace. Hourly earnings adjusted for inflation dropped 0.2 percent in July, and were down 0.1 percent over the past 12 months, separate figures from the Labor Department showed today.
“There still is a fundamental issue of purchasing power for U.S. consumers” as they’re demanding discounts and keeping core inflation tame, said BNP Paribas’s Coronado. Prices “will only shift gradually over time.”
More Promotions
Macy’s, the second-largest U.S. department-store chain, yesterday posted fiscal second-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates and cut its forecast for earnings this year after sales unexpectedly dropped.
Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren used promotions to clear inventory that had built up as a cool spring depressed purchases of summer clothing and uneven economic growth restrained consumers’ spending.
“Our performance in the period, in part, reflects consumers’ continuing uncertainty about spending on discretionary items in the current economic environment,” Lundgren said in a statement.
Fed policy makers have warned of the risks of prolonged inflation below their 2-percent target, while economists project the central bank will start reducing its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases in September as the economy shows improvement.
Bernanke’s Concern
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has said low inflation could cause the recovery to bog down by inhibiting capital investment and increasing the risk of “outright deflation,” a broad-based decline in prices. “Very low inflation poses risks to economic performance,” he told lawmakers July 17. “We will monitor this situation closely.”
The CPI is the broadest of three price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes goods and services. About 60 percent of the index covers prices consumers pay for services from medical visits to airline fares, movie tickets and rents.
Wholesale prices unexpectedly were little changed in July after two straight increases, Labor Department data showed yesterday. Import prices rose less than forecast in July, reflecting the biggest drop in automobile import prices in more than 20 years, according to a report released earlier this week.

 

[Dogtown]

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Lowest Level Since 2007


Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in almost six years, signaling the U.S. job market continues to mend.
The number of applications for unemployment insurance payments declined by 15,000 to 320,000 in the week ended Aug. 10, the fewest since October 2007, from a revised 335,000, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 335,000. There was nothing unusual in the data and no states were estimated, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press.
Enlarge image Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to Lowest Level in Almost Six Years
Contractors work on construction of the Shea Homes Frame & Focus development in San Diego, California. Photographer: Sam Hodgson/Bloomberg
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall; Consumer Prices Increase2:56
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped by 15,000 to 320,000 in the week ended Aug. 10, the fewest since October 2007. Also, the consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in June, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Betty Liu and Sara Eisen report on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
The slowdown in firings may be a precursor to a pickup in hiring, which would bolster household incomes and spending. Fewer dismissals are also helping boost consumer confidence as growth in the world’s largest economy shows signs of picking up in the second half of 2013.
“The labor market is improving,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, who projected 322,000, the closest of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “We’ve got decent momentum on consumer spending” heading into the third quarter, he said.
Another Labor Department report today showed the consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent in July after a 0.5 percent gain the prior month. The advance matched the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core measure, which excludes food and fuel, also climbed 0.2 percent from June.
Manufacturing Expands
Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in August for a third month, another report showed. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 8.2 from 9.5 last month. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Stock-index futures dropped, adding to earlier losses, after the reports signaled an improving U.S. economy may prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to curtail monthly bond purchases. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in September dropped 0.8 percent to 1,668.3 at 8:47 a.m. in New York.
Last week’s claims reading was lower than any economist in the Bloomberg survey projected. Estimates ranged from 322,000 to 347,000. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure from an initially reported 333,000.
Continuing Claims
The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 54,000 to 2.97 million in the week ended August 3. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.
Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 36,700 to 1.55 million in the week ended July 27.
The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 2.3 percent in the week ended August 3, today’s report showed.
Thirty-five states and territories reported an increase in claims, while 18 reported a decrease. These data are reported with a one-week lag.
Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and typically wane before job growth can accelerate. As an improving economy encourages companies to hold on to their employees, job candidates could benefit from a growing number of available positions.
Need Hiring
“Layoffs are relatively low, it’s the lack of hiring that’s problematic,” Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report.
Companies who did trim their workforce included Oshkosh Corp. (OSK), which derives about half of its revenue from defense products and has felt government cuts to defense spending.
“Also during June and July, as previously announced, we reduced both our hourly and salaried workforces in the Defense segment,” chief executive officer Charles Szews said in an August 12 earnings call. “These reductions were necessary to align our staffing levels with lower expected production requirements.”
Others have added jobs, albeit at a slower pace. Payrolls expanded by 162,000 workers in July, compared to 188,000 the prior month. The jobless rate dropped to a more than four-year low of 7.4 percent in July from 7.6 percent in June.
Federal Reserve policy makers are watching the job market to determine when to begin scaling back the central bank’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Officials have said they will continue the program until the labor market has improved “substantially.”
Central bankers will probably reduce their asset purchases in September, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month.

 

[Dogtown]

oggi si scende...vediamo sin dove e per quanto, lasciata la Gipa's zone sullo spoore ;-)

 

[Dogtown]

Il T-bond scende sulla soglia dei 125 e questo potrebbe innescare qualcosa di poco simpatico

 

[Platano]

Nessuno si può permettere tassi più alti o perdite sul portafoglio di riserva... e poi con il calo del surplus naturale che riducano gli acquisti... la Cina ha da aggiustare la sua economia

...dici che hanno "begun" loro a maggio

e siamo ai dati di giugno.......(chissa luglio.....)


http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt


uanandredendtuentifor miliardozz less in tre mes.......

(non vendite cinesi che sostanzialmente si mantiene stabile)

mic pizz e fik.......

 

[Dogtown]

U.S. Stocks Drop as Economic Data Fuel Stimulus Concern

U.S. stocks declined, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level since July 10, as an unexpected drop in jobless claims and a rise in the cost of living fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus this year.
The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 1 percent to 1,669.07 at 9:33 a.m. in New York. Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in two years.
Enlarge image U.S. Stocks Decline as Economic Data Fuel Fed Stimulus Concern
A treader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 13, 2013. Photographer: Richard Drew/AP Photo
“These data provide a reasonable assessment that a fall time period for taper is something the market should consider,” Stephen Wood, the New York-based chief market strategist who helps oversee about $237 billion at Russell Investments, said by phone. “Inflation has been coming in uncomfortably on the low side. Critical to this environment is inflation expectations.”
The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in June, Labor Department figures showed. The advance matched the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core measure, which excludes food and fuel, also climbed 0.2 percent from June.
Central bank policy makers have said they will watch inflation figures closely to ensure the U.S. doesn’t slip into a prolonged period of diminishing increases, or disinflation, that would damage the recovery.
Inflation Watch
Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who has backed the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, the stimulus program known as quantitative easing, said the current low pace of inflation wouldn’t ordinarily prompt the central bank to curtail stimulus.
“The committee would not normally remove policy accommodation in an environment where inflation is below target and is projected to remain there,” said Bullard, who votes on policy this year, in prepared remarks in Louisville, Kentucky. The Fed’s inflation goal is 2 percent.
The number of applications for unemployment insurance payments declined by 15,000 to 320,000 in the week ended Aug. 10, the fewest since October 2007, from a revised 335,000, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 335,000.
Industrial production in the U.S. was unchanged in July as a slowdown at factories overshadowed an increase in mining. Another report showed manufacturing in the New York region expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in August.
The S&P 500 has retreated 2.2 percent since closing at an all-time high on Aug. 2 amid increasing speculation the Fed will pare bond purchases this year. Central-bank stimulus helped propel the index up more than 150 percent from its low in 2009.
Economists Survey
The Fed, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, will probably reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at its meeting on Sept. 17-18, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Aug. 9 to Aug. 13. In a survey last month, half of economists predicted a reduction at next month’s meeting. The first step may be small, with monthly purchases tapered by $10 billion to a $75 billion pace, the survey showed.
“We could still be in an environment where the market is having difficulty digesting some positive data points because of the possible end result of tapering happening sooner or more forcefully than we would like,” Kristina Hooper, U.S. head of investment and client strategies at Allianz Global Investors, said in an interview from Frankfurt. Her firm oversees more than $409 billion.
Better-than-estimated corporate earnings have also helped U.S. equities rally in 2013. Of the 459 companies in the benchmark index that have reported quarterly results this period, 72 percent have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show.