Is the bullish market creating a volatility anomaly? - New paradigm or short
term anomaly?
In these last few days we are seeing an “inverse” relationship between spot and
implied volatility. In normal market conditions as market moves up the
volatility tends to decrease inversely. In the last 3 days, though, both the
spot and volatility on the S&P500 have been moving up. Some are talking about a
new paradigm, but actually the only paradigm is a current low volatility
environment combined with a flow of investors buying upside calls provided by a
bullish market sentiment.
Some of the explanations lead to investor concerns for potential downside
corrections. Upside calls provide upside exposure while limiting a potential
correction. A second reason may also be a simple technical effect: with
volatility so low, even if spot keeps increasing, the implied volatility does
not move down further.