Sp500: target luglio 2011...

[Rindomenceslao]

 

[alingtonsky]

NEW YORK, Sept. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The S&P 500 is entering the second leg of the bull market that started in March 2009 and has room to run, according to Mark Arbeter, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at S&P Equity Research Services (ERS).
From Arbeter's perspective, the intermediate-term trend for the S&P 500 has turned to bullish from neutral, and he points out that the blue-chip benchmark has broken out from an inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation. Arbeter presented his technical outlook during ERS' third-quarter 2010 webinar.
Arbeter, who does not see a bear market forming for domestic equities, sees market internals remaining strong, technical patterns indicating uptrends, and momentum in the bulls' favor.
He points out that internals from the major exchanges signal strength. For instance, the NYSE advance/decline line recently hit another all-time high, and up-versus-down volume on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ shows healthy levels in favor of the bulls, in his view. What's more, the leaders of the first phase of the bull market are leading the market higher once again, which is another positive, according to Arbeter.
Daily price momentum also remains in an uptrend and has not yet cycled into overbought territory. In his view, this suggests that the current advance has further to run.
Arbeter sees the potential for added gains over the next three to six months. The index has traced out a higher high and a higher low, which is the technical definition of an uptrend. He thinks that based on the size of the inverse H&S pattern, the S&P 500 could see a measured move to just above the April bull-market highs. With a strong finish for the week ending September 24, the index took out resistance at the 61.8% retracement level of the April-to-July correction.
"In our view, the next potential hurdle is just above 1,170, where chart resistance from the mid-May pivot high sits. In addition, a 76.2% retracement of the correction also lies just above the 1,170 region," Arbeter said during the webinar.
After September 20's strong breakout of the four-month price base, the S&P 500 pulled right back and successfully tested the breakout area of 1,128. This was followed with September 24's strong reversal higher. "This is what a healthy market does, and is something that we have not witnessed in a while," says Arbeter.
Moving into the fourth quarter, the weekly chart of the S&P 500 continues to show improvement, confirming Arbeter's view that higher prices could be seen. While the best stock market gains historically have come in the November-to-January time frame, "we think that might be altered this year due to the strong price move in September and what looks to be the four-year cycle low that was traced out in July," according to Arbeter.
...

'S&P 500' Seen Entering Second Leg of Bull Market -- NEW YORK, Sept. 29 /PRNewswire/ --


Bing Translator

la previsione comunicata da Mark Arbeter Chief Technical Strategist di S&P Equity Research Services verso fine settembre si è dimostrata corretta. Iniziava la seconda gamba del mercato toro e c' è stata positività in ottobre per S&P500 in anticipo rispetto al più comune periodo positivo tra novembre e gennaio.


Adesso copio un' altra analisi, in breve


Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Elections are over. FED day is over.

So, will the stock market finally pick a direction again?

Wave 5 should be underway now. Possible objectives for this wave are 1220 (April high), 1250 (inverse H&S target) or even much higher around 1300.

Wavaholic - Stock Market Analysis and Forecasts - Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Waves: S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 3 November 2010

 

[alingtonsky]

un articolo prevede che nel 2011 i principali indici azionari USA saliranno più in alto dei livelli attuali e prevede che nel 2011 ci saranno notevoli rialzi azionari


November 04, 2010

This is indeed the most important week of the year, and maybe even the most important week of the entire business cycle. Whatever happens, there will be a huge opportunity to make some significant gains in 2011. Either the market will breakout today and continue to run until year end, or we'll get our much needed correction after rallying nearly 20% in a little over 2 months on the NASDAQ.
Market participants are looking at two numbers today which will give us the direction for the intermediate term. If the S&P 500 breaks above 1,200 today (Thursday, November 4th) and closes above that mark, then we're headed much much higher from here. Maybe even to 1,300 before year end. If the S&P closes substantially below 1179, then we're probably at the eve of correction. It doesn't matter what happens today because there will be opportunity to capitalize on the directional move in the market.
Yet that isn't even the most important aspect of this week. Whatever happens--correction or continuation of the melt-up bubble--one thing is very clear. 2011 is going to be one huge blowout year for equities. If we get a correction, then it will be one of the best buying opportunities since the March 2009 lows. However, if the S&P breaks above 1230 and the QQQQ breaks above $55, then we're going to see some massive moves in equities.
In fact, break above $55 on the QQQQ and we'll see Apple (AAPL) $500, Google (GOOG) $800, Amazon (AMZN) $250, Research in Motion (RIMM) $120, Microsoft (MSFT) $40, IBM (IBM) $200 and Intel (INTC) $33 sometime within the next 18 months. A break above $55 on the QQQQ will send technology stocks skyrocketing as the QQQQ will see absolutely no significant long-term resistance all the way to $83.
Notice these price targets are not based on fundamentals but on a theory of asset inflation. We're going to get a new mini-tech bubble much like what we saw in 1999-2000. Just because things might become overvalued, doesn't mean we can't go much much higher. A significant break above $55 on the QQQQ suggests a 70% move in Apple.

A Huge Rally for Equities Coming in 2011 -- Seeking Alpha


http://it.babelfish.yahoo.com/

 

[Rindomenceslao]

molto interessante alingtosky.... grazie per aver postato quell'articolo...

a mio avviso 40$ microsoft la vedo un po' dura....