Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond-10y-Bund : la maledizione di f4f (vm18)

gipa69 ha scritto:
Secondo me i big hanno due possibilità:

1) sanno che il mercato azionario si indebolirà e anticipano
2) sanno che i tassi hanno raggiunto il top e costruiscono posizioni con leva sulla parte lunga e reinvestono i gains sull'azionario.

Potrebbero essere anche entrambe le opzioni.

tassi usa o EU ?
 
Questo è probabile.... soprattutto se la M2 non rallenta significativamente e l'oil neppure.


New home sales tumble 4.3 percent in July
Thursday August 24, 10:05 am ET


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes tumbled to a smaller-than-expected seasonally adjusted 1.072 million annualized rate in July and a key inventory measure jumped to a ten-year high, pointing to a rapidly cooling housing market, a government report showed on Thursday.

New homes sales fell 4.3 percent last month, the biggest drop since an 11.5 percent plunge in February and the lowest annualized rate since February as well, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting sales to ease to a 1.100 million annual rate.

The supply of homes available for sale at the current sales pace rose to 6.5 months, the highest level since a 6.8 months' supply in November 1995.

There were 568,000 new homes available for sale at the end of the month, a record high, according to the report.

The median sales price of a new home slipped to $230,000 but was still above the median $229,200 price in July 2005.

Sales plummeted 8 percent in the South, the busiest sales region, and by 21.3 percent in the Midwest. They rose by 11.7 percent in the West, the second busiest sales region of the country, and by 1.8 percent in the Northeast.

New home sales are recorded on contract, usually before the home is built, and can be seen as a gauge of future economic activity.
 
Comincia a svilupparsi qualche timore....

Data points to slowing economy
Thursday August 24, 11:38 am ET
By Mark Felsenthal


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes and orders for durable goods both fell by more than expected in July, providing further evidence of slowing U.S. economic growth.
U.S. stock prices slipped and bond yields edged down in the wake of the data which is seen supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next month.


"It suggests that the economy is cooling off," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons in St. Louis.

"The Fed will stay on the sidelines," Thayer said.

New homes sales fell 4.3 percent last month, the biggest drop since an 11.5 percent plunge in February and the lowest annualized rate since February as well, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting sales to ease to a 1.100 million annual rate.

Sales of new U.S. homes slid to a smaller-than-expected seasonally adjusted 1.072 million annualized rate in July and a key inventory measure jumped to a ten-year high, pointing to a rapidly cooling housing market, a government report showed on Thursday.

The supply of homes available for sale at the current sales pace rose to 6.5 months, the highest level since a 6.8 months' supply in November 1995.

There were 568,000 new homes available for sale at the end of the month, a record high, according to the report.

The median sales price of a new home slipped to $230,000 but was still above the median $229,200 price in July 2005.

Sales plummeted 8 percent in the South, the busiest sales region, and by 21.3 percent in the Midwest. They rose by 11.7 percent in the West, the second busiest sales region of the country, and by 1.8 percent in the Northeast.

New home sales are recorded on contract, usually before the home is built, and can be seen as a gauge of future economic activity.

Other government reports on Thursday showed overall new orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell a much greater-than-expected 2.4 percent last month as civilian aircraft and car orders tumbled.

It was the first decline in orders for durable goods, items built to last three years or longer, in three months, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting durable goods orders to fall 0.5 percent.

However, excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5 percent as motor vehicle and parts orders dropped 7 percent and civilian aircraft orders slid 10 percent. Analysts were expecting a 0.3 percent rise in durable goods outside transportation.

When defense orders were stripped out, durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 1.9 percent as defense aircraft and parts orders rose 9 percent. Analysts were expecting a 0.5 percent rise in durable goods orders excluding defense.

A closely watched category that many see as a signal of business spending, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, rose a much larger-than-expected 1.5 percent. Analysts had forecast a 0.4 percent rise in the category.

The orders report "is an indication that at least the manufacturing sector is still doing reasonably well," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist for RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

A separate report showed the number of workers seeking first-time jobless aid fell 1,000 last week, signaling a steady, solid job market.

The Labor Department said the number of initial claims for state jobless benefits declined to 313,000 last week from an upwardly revised 314,000 in the prior week. The total was slightly below the 315,000 claims that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll.

The Labor Department had initially reported the prior week's total as 312,000 and a department analyst said there were no special factors explaining the latest week's dip. New claims have oscillated within a tight range of 297,000 to 322,000 since the beginning of June.

The four-week moving average, considered a more reliable barometer of employment conditions because it irons out weekly fluctuations, rose to 315,250 last week from a revised 311,750.

The number of workers remaining on state unemployment benefits for the week ended August 12, the latest week for which such figures were available, fell by 9,000 to 2.492 million, just below analysts' forecasts of 2.495 million.

(Additional reporting by David Lawder))
 
Se vogliono fermare il trend delle commodity devono fermare la causa giustificante il trend...


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Reuters
IMF urges China to further tighten monetary policy
Thursday August 24, 11:42 am ET


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China's economic policies are still not sufficiently tight to curb credit growth, an International Monetary Fund spokesman said on Thursday, urging Beijing to further tighten monetary policy.

"Additional monetary tightening would drain liquidity from the banking system and guard against continued rapid growth," IMF spokesman David Hawley said at a regular news briefing.

"The Chinese authorities have taken important steps to slow credit and fixed-investment growth to more sustainable levels. However, economic activity remains strong, driven by net exports and investment, while inflation is low," Hawley added.

China hiked interest rates on August 18 for the second time in four months to cool booming credit and investment that the central bank said posed problems for the economy.

The People's Bank of China ordered an increase of 0.27 percentage point in commercial banks' benchmark one-year deposit and lending rates. The deposit rate is now 2.52 percent and the lending rate stands at 6.12 percent.

The bank raised lending rates by the same margin on April 27 but kept deposit rates unchanged.

Growth in the world's fourth-largest economy quickened to 11.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in a decade, compared with 10.3 percent for the previous quarter.
 
certo se ipotizziamo una naturale crisi di crescita della Cina allora i conti tornano
azz che autunno rovente ci aspetta , prego dotarsi all'uopo di mutande di ghisa fortissimi :V
 
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
certo se ipotizziamo una naturale crisi di crescita della Cina allora i conti tornano
azz che autunno rovente ci aspetta , prego dotarsi all'uopo di mutande di ghisa fortissimi :V

opzioni niente, eh?
cmq, l'è l'anno del deltahedging, believe me
mi deste una mano .... pokkapupazz'

invece che bere bira :P
 

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