Reuters
Speculators hold record short Treas futures - CFTC
Friday July 2, 4:28 pm ET
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. debt traders held a record
high net short position in U.S. Treasury futures in the latest
week, the weekly commitments of traders report showed on
Friday.
The market's bias helped set up Friday's surge in futures
as firms scrambled to cover after the weaker-than-expected June
payrolls report.
U.S. fixed income markets had been positioned for higher
interest rates going into the Federal Open Market Committee
meeting on June 29-30.
However, Friday's jobs report, on the heels of the FOMC's
renewed pledge to maintain a "measured" stance on rates, sent
futures up sharply as interest rates plunged.
"Aggregate short positions hit a record all-time short on
Tuesday, lead by 10-years and 30-years, which may explain the
subsequent price action," analysts at 4CAST Ltd. said in a
research report.
Ten-year Treasury note yields (US10YT=RR) ended the week at
4.46 percent, down from 4.69 percent at Tuesday's close, when
the weekly report was compiled.
As of June 29, net speculative short positions hit a record
high in Chicago Board of Trade 10-year Treasury notes and were
the highest since at least early 2000 in 30-year bond futures.
Non-commercial firms -- often termed commodity funds or
hedge funds -- were short a net 202,921 contracts in 10-year
note futures, up 27,937 contracts on the week.
Nonreportable positions, or small speculators, also
increased net short positions in 10-year notes.
Across town at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, large
speculators increased their short position in Eurodollars by
more than 80,000 contracts on the week.
Data from the commitments of traders report are used by
analysts as an indicator of market direction.
Speculators still favor long positions in CBOT five-year
note futures but net longs fell by almost 36,000 on the week,
chiefly on long liquidation.
The following table shows positions held by non-commercial
firms in futures only:
30-YEAR BONDS
6/29/04 week 6/22/04 week
Long 37,586 56,213
Short 109,895 106,384
Net -72,309 -50,171
10-YEAR NOTES
6/29/04 week 6/22/04 week
Long 107,387 134,625
Short 310,308 309,609
Net -202,921 -174,984
FIVE-YEAR NOTES
6/29/04 week 6/22/04 week
Long 307,170 335,053
Short 201,811 193,797
Net 105,359 141,256
TWO-YEAR NOTES
6/29/04 week 6/22/04 week
Long 52,579 53,165
Short 31,840 39,143
Net 20,739 14,022