Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bronx5Y-10Y-Bund .. il ritorno del figliol prodigo (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ciao Andrè 
io rimango la situazione si sta facendo interessante
io rimango la situazione si sta facendo interessante
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
e op op op sotto 1280 di mS&P500 prende corpo l'ipotesi grafica di W capovolta 
abbasso trail a 766 e godo
abbasso trail a 766 e godo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Dollar, Bonds May Benefit as Democrats Win Congress
By Ye Xie
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds may gain because a U.S. government divided between a Republican president and Democratic Congress is likely to restrain government spending, analysts said.
The Democrats clinched majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate after Jim Webb won a narrow victory for a Virginia senate seat from Republican incumbent George Allen. The Associated Press declared Webb the winner by a margin of 0.3 percent, or 7,200 votes. The result provided the party with full control for the first time since 1994.
``The odds are that the Democrats will try to have a good record on the deficit, and that's good for the bond market,'' said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. Slower spending may limit the government's borrowing in the Treasury market, shoring up prices for existing government securities.
Democrats picked up at least 27 House seats, giving them the 435-seat chamber in January. And the six Senate seats they gained were just enough for a majority there.
Bond and currency markets were little changed yesterday as investors didn't anticipate any immediate changes after the election. The benchmark 10-year note yield rose 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.65 percent at 9:10 a.m. in New York, according to broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The dollar traded at $1.2774 per euro, from $1.2757 yesterday.
``It does have long-term implications for the dollar if, for example, the Democrats achieve a Congressional majority and decide to take the initiative'' in reducing federal debt, said Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities in New York. ``But that's an `if' -- it's not a given yet.''
Limiting Spending
Congressional Democrats promised to reintroduce pay-as-you- go budget rules if they took control of Congress. Those rules, which lapsed in 2002, could limit tax cuts and increases in spending on entitlement programs such as the Medicare health plan.
``A Democratic sweep is good for the dollar in terms of fiscal deficits,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts the deficit will widen to $286 billion in fiscal 2007, from $248 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30.
Disagreement between the Congress and the president will produce a slowdown in spending similar to that during the Clinton presidency. After Democrats lost control of the House in 1994, the budget went from a deficit of $164 billion in 1995 to a surplus of $236 billion in 2000. Under Bush, the surplus became a $413 billion deficit at its peak in 2004 with GOP control of the House and Senate.
Social Security
President Bush has pledged to privatize Social Security, which paid out almost $500 billion in 2004 in benefits, making it the largest government program in the world.
Economists said elements of privatization, which would allow Americans to direct the investment of their retirement money, could boost demand for bonds as individuals increase their ownership of less-volatile fixed-income securities.
``The Democrats will be more pressured to have a pension reform, and you could label it as a plus for the bond market,'' because any pension reform typically means more ownership of fixed-income securities, Crescenzi at Miller Tabak said.
At the same time, bonds and the dollar may be hampered if the U.S. gets more aggressive about the trade deficit, and debate over China could become heated, analysts said. The trade gap with China reached an all-time high of $22 billion in August, exceeding the previous record of $20.5 billion in October 2005.
Tariff Threat
Some Democrats have proposed a punitive tariff on imports from China, which they accuse of keeping its currency relatively cheap in order to give its exporters an advantage.
During the first eight months of 2006, China trailed only Canada and Mexico in the value of goods traded with the U.S., according to Commerce Department data. The Chinese total of $214.5 billion was almost 20 percent higher than in the comparable 2005 period.
``The administration may feel more pressured to go to China on their own,'' Crescenzi said. ``It will probably push further revaluation of the yuan, and the revaluation of yuan is generally seen as negative for Treasuries because it reduces the Chinese need to buy dollars.''
Historical Patterns
Investors are also examining previous patterns to discern how these markets typically perform after an election. In all mid-term legislative elections since 1982, one party has gained control of both chambers, and in each instance except one, the dollar has rallied for three months following the elections, according to a research report last month by Kathy Lien, chief currency strategist, and John Kicklighter, a currency analyst, at Forex Capital Markets LLC in New York.
``Foreign exchange markets like harmony,'' Lien and Kicklighter wrote.
The last three times the president's party lost control of one or both houses of Congress, in 1974, 1990 and 1994, bond yields declined or held steady in the few weeks after the election, David Ader, U.S. government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, wrote in a report yesterday.
By Ye Xie
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds may gain because a U.S. government divided between a Republican president and Democratic Congress is likely to restrain government spending, analysts said.
The Democrats clinched majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate after Jim Webb won a narrow victory for a Virginia senate seat from Republican incumbent George Allen. The Associated Press declared Webb the winner by a margin of 0.3 percent, or 7,200 votes. The result provided the party with full control for the first time since 1994.
``The odds are that the Democrats will try to have a good record on the deficit, and that's good for the bond market,'' said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. Slower spending may limit the government's borrowing in the Treasury market, shoring up prices for existing government securities.
Democrats picked up at least 27 House seats, giving them the 435-seat chamber in January. And the six Senate seats they gained were just enough for a majority there.
Bond and currency markets were little changed yesterday as investors didn't anticipate any immediate changes after the election. The benchmark 10-year note yield rose 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.65 percent at 9:10 a.m. in New York, according to broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The dollar traded at $1.2774 per euro, from $1.2757 yesterday.
``It does have long-term implications for the dollar if, for example, the Democrats achieve a Congressional majority and decide to take the initiative'' in reducing federal debt, said Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities in New York. ``But that's an `if' -- it's not a given yet.''
Limiting Spending
Congressional Democrats promised to reintroduce pay-as-you- go budget rules if they took control of Congress. Those rules, which lapsed in 2002, could limit tax cuts and increases in spending on entitlement programs such as the Medicare health plan.
``A Democratic sweep is good for the dollar in terms of fiscal deficits,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts the deficit will widen to $286 billion in fiscal 2007, from $248 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30.
Disagreement between the Congress and the president will produce a slowdown in spending similar to that during the Clinton presidency. After Democrats lost control of the House in 1994, the budget went from a deficit of $164 billion in 1995 to a surplus of $236 billion in 2000. Under Bush, the surplus became a $413 billion deficit at its peak in 2004 with GOP control of the House and Senate.
Social Security
President Bush has pledged to privatize Social Security, which paid out almost $500 billion in 2004 in benefits, making it the largest government program in the world.
Economists said elements of privatization, which would allow Americans to direct the investment of their retirement money, could boost demand for bonds as individuals increase their ownership of less-volatile fixed-income securities.
``The Democrats will be more pressured to have a pension reform, and you could label it as a plus for the bond market,'' because any pension reform typically means more ownership of fixed-income securities, Crescenzi at Miller Tabak said.
At the same time, bonds and the dollar may be hampered if the U.S. gets more aggressive about the trade deficit, and debate over China could become heated, analysts said. The trade gap with China reached an all-time high of $22 billion in August, exceeding the previous record of $20.5 billion in October 2005.
Tariff Threat
Some Democrats have proposed a punitive tariff on imports from China, which they accuse of keeping its currency relatively cheap in order to give its exporters an advantage.
During the first eight months of 2006, China trailed only Canada and Mexico in the value of goods traded with the U.S., according to Commerce Department data. The Chinese total of $214.5 billion was almost 20 percent higher than in the comparable 2005 period.
``The administration may feel more pressured to go to China on their own,'' Crescenzi said. ``It will probably push further revaluation of the yuan, and the revaluation of yuan is generally seen as negative for Treasuries because it reduces the Chinese need to buy dollars.''
Historical Patterns
Investors are also examining previous patterns to discern how these markets typically perform after an election. In all mid-term legislative elections since 1982, one party has gained control of both chambers, and in each instance except one, the dollar has rallied for three months following the elections, according to a research report last month by Kathy Lien, chief currency strategist, and John Kicklighter, a currency analyst, at Forex Capital Markets LLC in New York.
``Foreign exchange markets like harmony,'' Lien and Kicklighter wrote.
The last three times the president's party lost control of one or both houses of Congress, in 1974, 1990 and 1994, bond yields declined or held steady in the few weeks after the election, David Ader, U.S. government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, wrote in a report yesterday.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Strange Brew
The markets continue to act perversely, even in the face of a hawkish rate comment from Michael Moskow, and the ECB. Rather than slowing speculative interest, such comments actually seem instead to weaken the Yen, and embolden wildcat finance types into even more carry trades. Amplifying this strange brew are further distortions engendered by the endless new derivative concoctions from Pig Men. FT writes about how new structured credit instruments have serve to influence and contribute to yet another short squeeze, that has compressed credit spreads down to near extinction.
The current “market” in credit risk, really isn’t even a market at all now. Overlaying this is my strong suspicion that more than a few rogue players may be in effect cornering the market. It feels very rigged, and completely divorced from reality. This reminds me of the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze corner of 1980, but instead of silver, rogues may have cornered the credit spread market, and right when real life conditions are quickly worsening.
The LBO frenzy also surges on supported by the same strange brew, that Riskloves just don’t care about risk and returns on the financing used. Behind the scenes however, are signs that bondholders, and regulators are moving to close the barn door. In the interim these deals create high powered money supply to inflate financial assets generally. Consistent with the whole out of control scene, regulators also warn Wall Street on manipulation practices. Feel like something and someone is headed for a long overdue crack down, and scandal. But, in the meantime, several of the aforementioned firms, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns are about to reward their 173,000 employees with US$36 billion in bonuses. That’s a hell of a lot of inflationary fire power, and a strange brew indeed.
Food for thought for the new Democrat Congress?
The markets continue to act perversely, even in the face of a hawkish rate comment from Michael Moskow, and the ECB. Rather than slowing speculative interest, such comments actually seem instead to weaken the Yen, and embolden wildcat finance types into even more carry trades. Amplifying this strange brew are further distortions engendered by the endless new derivative concoctions from Pig Men. FT writes about how new structured credit instruments have serve to influence and contribute to yet another short squeeze, that has compressed credit spreads down to near extinction.
The current “market” in credit risk, really isn’t even a market at all now. Overlaying this is my strong suspicion that more than a few rogue players may be in effect cornering the market. It feels very rigged, and completely divorced from reality. This reminds me of the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze corner of 1980, but instead of silver, rogues may have cornered the credit spread market, and right when real life conditions are quickly worsening.
The LBO frenzy also surges on supported by the same strange brew, that Riskloves just don’t care about risk and returns on the financing used. Behind the scenes however, are signs that bondholders, and regulators are moving to close the barn door. In the interim these deals create high powered money supply to inflate financial assets generally. Consistent with the whole out of control scene, regulators also warn Wall Street on manipulation practices. Feel like something and someone is headed for a long overdue crack down, and scandal. But, in the meantime, several of the aforementioned firms, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns are about to reward their 173,000 employees with US$36 billion in bonuses. That’s a hell of a lot of inflationary fire power, and a strange brew indeed.
Food for thought for the new Democrat Congress?
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Gipa rulexxx
A parte gli scherzi la discesa di oggi è stata si dettata da chiusure carry (per fortuna c'è fleu che mi ascolta... ) ma anche dalla prossima pubblicazione sul dato inflattivo (CPI).
Come vi avevo già postato a inizio mese quel dato sarà cruciale per i prossimi giorni dei mercati in quanto già l'occupazione (uno degli indicatori chiave per la FED) è supportiva al rialzo dei tassi e se anche il dato del CPI fosse superiore alle previsioni o comunque superiore al tassi di crescita preventivabile le aspettative per un rialzo si moltiplicherebbero visto anche il comportamento delle altre banche centrali.
Il comportamento delle commodity ed in particolare dei preziosi (peccato aver chiuso le posizioni sugli auriferi ma in un periodo di flattaggio sono stati utili) è stato particolarmente brillante e questo è un indicatore che il mercato qualche timore ce l'ha.
Così come la discesa delle commodity energy e preziosi hanno portato liquidità sui mercati ora se la stanno riprendendo con le conseguenze che abbiamo visto oggi.
Carry non supportivo, commodity in crescita e investitori individuali innervositi.
La seduta odierna rappresenta tutto questo.
Cosa succederà nei prossimi giorni?
La chiave di tutto sarà il 16 con la pubblicazione dei CPI ma nei prossimi giorni si navigherà a vista tra dati macro, movimenti valutari (girules
)e andamento delle commodity.
I bond oggi hanno tenuto per la buona domanda sul decennale ma anche per loro l'appuntamento è il 16.
Un ultimo cenno alle elezioni. Sicuramente il ribaltone al congresso non fa piacere al mercato ma la sua influenza non è ancora certa.
Guardiamo altro per le logiche del mercato perchè chiunque governi deve essere pro mercato
Per il momento non è ancora inversione ma la pressione c'è.
A parte gli scherzi la discesa di oggi è stata si dettata da chiusure carry (per fortuna c'è fleu che mi ascolta...
) ma anche dalla prossima pubblicazione sul dato inflattivo (CPI).Come vi avevo già postato a inizio mese quel dato sarà cruciale per i prossimi giorni dei mercati in quanto già l'occupazione (uno degli indicatori chiave per la FED) è supportiva al rialzo dei tassi e se anche il dato del CPI fosse superiore alle previsioni o comunque superiore al tassi di crescita preventivabile le aspettative per un rialzo si moltiplicherebbero visto anche il comportamento delle altre banche centrali.
Il comportamento delle commodity ed in particolare dei preziosi (peccato aver chiuso le posizioni sugli auriferi ma in un periodo di flattaggio sono stati utili) è stato particolarmente brillante e questo è un indicatore che il mercato qualche timore ce l'ha.
Così come la discesa delle commodity energy e preziosi hanno portato liquidità sui mercati ora se la stanno riprendendo con le conseguenze che abbiamo visto oggi.
Carry non supportivo, commodity in crescita e investitori individuali innervositi.
La seduta odierna rappresenta tutto questo.
Cosa succederà nei prossimi giorni?
La chiave di tutto sarà il 16 con la pubblicazione dei CPI ma nei prossimi giorni si navigherà a vista tra dati macro, movimenti valutari (girules
)e andamento delle commodity.I bond oggi hanno tenuto per la buona domanda sul decennale ma anche per loro l'appuntamento è il 16.
Un ultimo cenno alle elezioni. Sicuramente il ribaltone al congresso non fa piacere al mercato ma la sua influenza non è ancora certa.
Guardiamo altro per le logiche del mercato perchè chiunque governi deve essere pro mercato
Per il momento non è ancora inversione ma la pressione c'è.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Un commento che da maggiore importanza di quanto ne dia io alla politica e una opinione leggermente diversa dalla mia sulle prossime mosse FED (anche se la conclusione è similare....
The stage is set for significant weakness in the U.S. Dollar and significant strength in gold and gold stocks. December gold futures are up $6.70 to $625.00 U.S. per ounce this morning. Consider the following:
· Late last night, the Republican conceeded defeat in the Senate seat in Virginia. The Democrats now control the agenda in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Effectively, the Democrats control the political agenda in the U.S.. Bush truly is now a “lame duck” president with little or no chance of gaining acceptance of his agenda. His strength comes from the “bully pulpit” where he either can influence small changes in Democrat bills or veto their bills. The end result is a “rudderless” U.S. government over the next two years during a time when important economic and international issues will need to be addressed. International investors will not be impressed. International funds needed to offset the U.S. trade deficit will have a weaker flow. Net impact is a slow, but steady decline in the U.S. Dollar and a corresponding increase in the price of gold. Hopefully, international investors will not start to sell their U.S. dollar treasury bonds. If they do, weakness in the U.S. Dollar will escalate.
· Conciliatory comments by the Democrat leadership yesterday have to be “taken with a grain of salt”. The Democrats have vowed to proceed with their initial agenda within “the first 100 hours”. Their initial agenda generally is anti-business and anti-trade. It is controlled by the far left members of the party. Concerns will grow prior to mid January when the official “changing of the guard” in Congress occurs.
· The Fed is “caught between a rock and a hard spot”. It has been trying to stabilize the Fed Fund rate without tipping the U.S. economy into recession. The market is hoping that the Fed will lower the Fed Fund rate by the first quarter. However, rising administered interest rates in Europe, Japan and China are starting to put pressure on the U.S. Dollar. This morning the Bank of England raised its Base Rate from 4.75% to 5.00%. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar will encourage the Fed either to maintain the Fed Fund rate at 5.25% for a long period of time or to increase rates next year.
The stage is set for significant weakness in the U.S. Dollar and significant strength in gold and gold stocks. December gold futures are up $6.70 to $625.00 U.S. per ounce this morning. Consider the following:
· Late last night, the Republican conceeded defeat in the Senate seat in Virginia. The Democrats now control the agenda in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Effectively, the Democrats control the political agenda in the U.S.. Bush truly is now a “lame duck” president with little or no chance of gaining acceptance of his agenda. His strength comes from the “bully pulpit” where he either can influence small changes in Democrat bills or veto their bills. The end result is a “rudderless” U.S. government over the next two years during a time when important economic and international issues will need to be addressed. International investors will not be impressed. International funds needed to offset the U.S. trade deficit will have a weaker flow. Net impact is a slow, but steady decline in the U.S. Dollar and a corresponding increase in the price of gold. Hopefully, international investors will not start to sell their U.S. dollar treasury bonds. If they do, weakness in the U.S. Dollar will escalate.
· Conciliatory comments by the Democrat leadership yesterday have to be “taken with a grain of salt”. The Democrats have vowed to proceed with their initial agenda within “the first 100 hours”. Their initial agenda generally is anti-business and anti-trade. It is controlled by the far left members of the party. Concerns will grow prior to mid January when the official “changing of the guard” in Congress occurs.
· The Fed is “caught between a rock and a hard spot”. It has been trying to stabilize the Fed Fund rate without tipping the U.S. economy into recession. The market is hoping that the Fed will lower the Fed Fund rate by the first quarter. However, rising administered interest rates in Europe, Japan and China are starting to put pressure on the U.S. Dollar. This morning the Bank of England raised its Base Rate from 4.75% to 5.00%. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar will encourage the Fed either to maintain the Fed Fund rate at 5.25% for a long period of time or to increase rates next year.
