Interessante commento macro...
mentre i bond sembrano pressupporre debolezza economica nei prossimi quarti il mercato azionario non sembra scontarlo.Chi ha ragione? solo il tempo ce lo dirà anche se gli indicatori economici, il recente trend dei bond ed una superiore capacità predittiva dei bond rispetto all'equity sembrerebbero dar ragione ai bond.
Comunque secondo l'ultima statistica il GDP cresce al ritmo dell' 1,6% mentre nel primo trimestre cresceva al ritmo del 5,6%. la forzaz degli indici azionari però potrebbero indicare la possibilità di un soft lending dell'economia cioè di una discesa non aggressiva della crescita. In caso di rallentamento della crescita con rallentamento dell'inflazione e quindi discesa dei tassi potrebbero comunque fare bene sia i mercati obbligazionari che quelli azionari.. ma se l'inflazione non rallenta allora potrebbero sbagliare entrambi.
Per l'autore il rallentamento che sembra concretizzarsi non dovrebbe costringere la FED ad ulteriori rialzi ma solo a continuare a lanciare allarmi sull'inflazione per mantenere credibilità sui mercati.
Molti che credono nel soft landing pensano che il comportamento dell'azionario di questi giorni sia il segnale di non preoccuparsi del futuro dato del GDP ma purtroppop non si tiene conto che l'azionario non è sempre un buon predittore di eventuali recessioni economici così come è accaduto nel 2000 e nel 2001.
A marzo del 2000 l'economia era già in rallentamento ma il Nasdaq fece un top, poi nella primavera del 2001 lo spoore crebbe parecchio nella speranza che i tagli dei tassi della FED avrebbero fatto riprendere l'economia e l'azionario ma questo non successe.
L'autore fa notare la similitudine grafica tra l'andamento del GDP di allora e quello di adesso.
Al momento pochi economisti stimano una recessione ma è risaputo l'idiosincrasia degli economisti alle recessioni:
A marzo 2001 un sondaggio di economisti mostrava che il 95% di essi non stimava una possibile recessione.
Nel 2001 una delle cause della recessione era l'eccesso produttivo e anche di carta del settore tecnologico che nopn riuscì ad essere stimolato nenache dal ribasso dei tassi.
Eccessi di offerta potrebbero trovarsi ora nel settore immobiliare, automobilistico e consumo durevoli.
Is The Stock Market Right? - Current Environment
The bond market and the stock market have been at odds in recent weeks. With the recent run up in bond prices, bond buyers are forecasting economic weakness in the coming quarters. The stock market is telling us that it believes that the weakness will not be as significant as bond buyers think. We may get a read on Friday, October 27th when the first pass at Q3 2006 growth is released at 8:30 AM ET. It would not be a surprise to see the number come in below consensus. The consensus forecast has dropped from 3.0% to 2.0% (a 33% decline). A reading between 1.5% and 2.0% may be more likely.
Which Market Is Correct? or Is It Possible That They Are Both Wrong? or Can They Both Be Right? Only time will tell, but the economic indicators (see page 2), recent GDP trends, and history lean toward the bond market having the more accurate forecast (see previous update Housing & The Markets for some insight). If Q3 2006 GDP does come in at 2.0%, it would represent a 64% decline in economic growth vs. Q1's 5.6% reading. A 2.0% Q3 2006 GDP would mean a 52% decline in growth Y-O-Y vs. Q3 2005. The average GDP reading for the last six quarters is 3.48% or 1.74 times more (read better) than the expected 2.0% in Q3 2006. These figures show an economy that is at best slowing down significantly. These figures also tell us that the bond market may be right after all.
However, one cannot ignore the recent strength in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gives some support to the soft landing scenario for the economy. If we get the Goldilocks or soft landing scenario (slower growth/slowing inflation/steady or lower interest rates), it is possible that both stock and bond investors will do well in the coming months. If inflation does not pull back as the economy slows, both stock and bond holders could be disappointed. With troublesome inflation, many feel the FED may be forced to raise interest rates again, which would harm both stocks and bonds. With GDP numbers falling fast, from where I sit, the odds of the FED raising rates again appear to be extremely slim. The FED will continue to talk tough on inflation in an attempt to retain credibility with the financial markets and general public, but the roughly 64% decline in economic growth between Q1 2006 and Q3 2006, largely caused by a rapidly weakening housing market and expanding trade deficit, will prevent them from backing up the public comments and official statements with any rate hikes.
Many of the soft landing supporters, point to the stock market as a reason to not be concerned about future GDP reports. As the chart below shows, the stock market is not always good at forecasting economic slowdowns or recessions. In March of 2000, the NASDAQ powered to new highs just as the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was beginning to significantly slow down. In the spring of 2001, once again, stock investors got ahead of themselves pushing the S&P 500 up 18% from April 4th to May 21, 2001. The market thought the Federal Reserve would be able to save the slowing economy with lower interest rates. This is the same talk heard on Wall Street today. Unfortunately, the FED was not able to save the economy (see GDP rate of change in pink) or stocks despite aggressive rate cuts in 2001 (the FED funds rate dropped from 6.0% to 1.5%). After the 18% run up in stocks in 2001, the S&P 500 dropped 40% once it became clear that stock investors got it wrong and the economy continued to weaken. The blue line in the chart shows recent GDP rates of change from Q4 2004 to the last published reading for Q2 2006. While somewhat meaningless due to the low number of data points, it is interesting to note the similar trend in the two series.
On the topic of inaccurate economic forecasts, here are some points taken from an Economist article dated January 13, 2005:
"Should you trust the leading indicators or the forecasts? Embarrassingly, conventional economic forecasts have rarely correctly predicted a recession. In late 1981, when (it later transpired) America's economy was already shrinking, the average forecast for GDP growth in 1982 was over 2%. In the event, output fell by 2%. In August 1990, the very month that America dipped into its next recession, the consensus was that the economy would grow by 2% in 1991; again, output declined. In early 2001, the average forecast for growth that year was also close to 2%. We now know that a recession was already under way. In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession."
One factor that contributed to the recession in 2001 was the glut of supply in the technology sector (both products and stocks). Even with record low interest rates, it was not possible to stimulate enough demand to offset the excessive inventory levels. It is possible that we are in a similar situation today with the excess supply found in housing, automobiles, and consumer durables. It is also possible that the excess supply will have to be worked off as it was from 2000-2001
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- interessantissimo (e spettacolare per come è scritto) l'articolo che hai postato: Stephanie Pomboy Presents: A Yen for Risk 
