Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione f4f
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
T-bronx ha preso la via del soft landing
Treasuries fall as strong retail data surprise
Fri Aug 11, 2006
By Zubin Jelveh
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Friday after stronger-than-anticipated July retail sales revived speculation the Federal Reserve might resume raising interest rates.
Without a rally, government debt prices will snap a six-week winning streak. Bond yields are near the bottom of their current ranges and some market participants took profits ahead of the weekend, strategists said.
Treasuries have treaded water since the Fed paused its two-year campaign of rate increases on Tuesday and hinted in its accompanying statement that inflation pressures might not trigger more monetary policy tightening, for now.
While some economists have speculated that the Fed would not raise rates in September for fear of rattling markets, U.S. short-term interest rate futures showed about a 42 percent perceived chance of a rate increase at the Fed's September meeting after the retail sales data, compared with about 30 percent before the data.
"I don't think it is overly surprising you have seen a little bit of selling pressure in Treasuries here, with retail sales stronger than expected," said Kevin Flanagan, fixed income strategist for global wealth management with Morgan Stanley in Purchase, New York.
"In terms of future price action and what you are anticipating that the Fed may or may not do, you have to look at the third quarter to see if that moderation in growth is sustained. So far, what you are seeing is that consumer spending is lending support," Flanagan added.
Treasuries fall as strong retail data surprise
Fri Aug 11, 2006
By Zubin Jelveh
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Friday after stronger-than-anticipated July retail sales revived speculation the Federal Reserve might resume raising interest rates.
Without a rally, government debt prices will snap a six-week winning streak. Bond yields are near the bottom of their current ranges and some market participants took profits ahead of the weekend, strategists said.
Treasuries have treaded water since the Fed paused its two-year campaign of rate increases on Tuesday and hinted in its accompanying statement that inflation pressures might not trigger more monetary policy tightening, for now.
While some economists have speculated that the Fed would not raise rates in September for fear of rattling markets, U.S. short-term interest rate futures showed about a 42 percent perceived chance of a rate increase at the Fed's September meeting after the retail sales data, compared with about 30 percent before the data.
"I don't think it is overly surprising you have seen a little bit of selling pressure in Treasuries here, with retail sales stronger than expected," said Kevin Flanagan, fixed income strategist for global wealth management with Morgan Stanley in Purchase, New York.
"In terms of future price action and what you are anticipating that the Fed may or may not do, you have to look at the third quarter to see if that moderation in growth is sustained. So far, what you are seeing is that consumer spending is lending support," Flanagan added.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ditro cazzarola stai guadagnando come un puerco in calore . le stai imbroccando tutte
secondo me è l'influsso positivo della nascita della nuova trading room
appena puoi mandami una saccoccia del terreno santo dove sta sorgendo
secondo me è l'influsso positivo della nascita della nuova trading room
appena puoi mandami una saccoccia del terreno santo dove sta sorgendo
ditropan
Forumer storico
Grains ... io inizio a portare a casa un pò di roba, sarei un fesso a non farlo. 
... inizio a sbaraccare le posizioni (solo sbaraccamento), e se continua così si chiude l'anno in gloria ! 
... non mancherò ! 
Buon W.E. bbandito ! 
... inizio a sbaraccare le posizioni (solo sbaraccamento), e se continua così si chiude l'anno in gloria !
Fleursdumal ha scritto:ditro cazzarola stai guadagnando come un puerco in calore . le stai imbroccando tutte
secondo me è l'influsso positivo della nascita della nuova trading room
appena puoi mandami una saccoccia del terreno santo dove sta sorgendo
... non mancherò ! Buon W.E. bbandito !
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
ditropan ha scritto:Linea dell'utile aggiornata con il gain di oggi.
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1155319570azz2.jpg
Impressionante
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Per chi segue i COT:
sembrerebbe che i dati son stati riclassificati e alcuni commercial siano stati spostati nei non commercial
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotnotice080406.htm
per cui la forte riduzione delle posizioni short dei commercial della settimana scorsa sugli indici azionari è stata effettuata anche a causa di questo aggiustamento.
sembrerebbe che i dati son stati riclassificati e alcuni commercial siano stati spostati nei non commercial
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotnotice080406.htm
per cui la forte riduzione delle posizioni short dei commercial della settimana scorsa sugli indici azionari è stata effettuata anche a causa di questo aggiustamento.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Forti posizioni short sul dollaro. Solitamente con queste letture bisognerebbe avere una chiave contraria del mercato....
IMM specs hold record net long euro, stg positions
Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:13pm ET
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - International Money Market currency speculators upped their bets against the dollar in the week to Aug. 8, in the process accumulating record bets on the euro and sterling strengthening, data released on Friday showed.
The overall net short dollar position held by IMM accounts in that week against six major currencies swelled to $17.6 billion from $13.2 billion the week before, according to Reuters calculations. Those currencies are the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars.
The increase in bets against the greenback came in a week that covered several key dollar-negative developments. They included the Bank of England's surprise interest rate hike, the European Central Bank's anticipated rate hike, a below-consensus U.S. employment report and the Federal Reserve's decision to break a two-year-long monetary policy tightening campaign and keep interest rates on hold.
Yet since Tuesday, the dollar has recovered ground, exiting Friday's U.S. session around its highest levels of the week on a basket basis. In this light, it's more than likely that these short dollar positions reported on Friday have been pared back to some degree.
Still, in the week to Tuesday, net long euro <EUR> positions on the IMM were increased to 92,108 contracts from 73,429 contracts the previous week, worth around $14.77 billion, according to Reuters calculations.
Net long sterling <GBP> positions increased to 55,626 contracts from 45,003 the week before, worth around $6.58 billion.
Being "short" a currency is effectively a bet it will weaken over a certain period of time, while being "long" is effectively a bet it will strengthen.
Extreme market positioning often suggests a currency is poised to snap back, largely because investors are uncomfortable holding increasingly large exposure in a currency over an increasing length of time and would be tempted to reduce their risk exposure.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 25,031 25,391
Short 76,822 68,375
Net -51,791 -42,984
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 101,133 85,072
Short 9,025 11,643
Net 92,108 73,429
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 65,228 56,297
Short 9,602 11,294
Net 55,626 45,003
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 21,484 17,487
Short 36,337 26,881
Net -14,853 -9,394
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 23,185 18,809
Short 13,355 26,225
Net 9,830 -7,416
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 36,364 40,195
Short 3,307 2,082
Net 33,057 38,113
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 28,762 27,255
Short 6,853 9,580
Net 21,909 17,675
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 9,468 10,955
Short 2,523 2,752
Net 6,945 8,203
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved
IMM specs hold record net long euro, stg positions
Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:13pm ET
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - International Money Market currency speculators upped their bets against the dollar in the week to Aug. 8, in the process accumulating record bets on the euro and sterling strengthening, data released on Friday showed.
The overall net short dollar position held by IMM accounts in that week against six major currencies swelled to $17.6 billion from $13.2 billion the week before, according to Reuters calculations. Those currencies are the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars.
The increase in bets against the greenback came in a week that covered several key dollar-negative developments. They included the Bank of England's surprise interest rate hike, the European Central Bank's anticipated rate hike, a below-consensus U.S. employment report and the Federal Reserve's decision to break a two-year-long monetary policy tightening campaign and keep interest rates on hold.
Yet since Tuesday, the dollar has recovered ground, exiting Friday's U.S. session around its highest levels of the week on a basket basis. In this light, it's more than likely that these short dollar positions reported on Friday have been pared back to some degree.
Still, in the week to Tuesday, net long euro <EUR> positions on the IMM were increased to 92,108 contracts from 73,429 contracts the previous week, worth around $14.77 billion, according to Reuters calculations.
Net long sterling <GBP> positions increased to 55,626 contracts from 45,003 the week before, worth around $6.58 billion.
Being "short" a currency is effectively a bet it will weaken over a certain period of time, while being "long" is effectively a bet it will strengthen.
Extreme market positioning often suggests a currency is poised to snap back, largely because investors are uncomfortable holding increasingly large exposure in a currency over an increasing length of time and would be tempted to reduce their risk exposure.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 25,031 25,391
Short 76,822 68,375
Net -51,791 -42,984
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 101,133 85,072
Short 9,025 11,643
Net 92,108 73,429
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 65,228 56,297
Short 9,602 11,294
Net 55,626 45,003
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 21,484 17,487
Short 36,337 26,881
Net -14,853 -9,394
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 23,185 18,809
Short 13,355 26,225
Net 9,830 -7,416
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 36,364 40,195
Short 3,307 2,082
Net 33,057 38,113
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 28,762 27,255
Short 6,853 9,580
Net 21,909 17,675
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
8/08/06 week 8/01/06 week
Long 9,468 10,955
Short 2,523 2,752
Net 6,945 8,203
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stocks seek clarity on inflation, growth
Fri Aug 11, 2006 6:40pm ET
Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stocks seek clarity on inflation, growth
Jennifer Coogan
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Investors will keep a sharp eye on inflation data next week with Wall Street anxious for any indication of whether the Federal Reserve will remain paused at its September meeting or resume hiking rates.
Aside from macroeconomic themes, earnings season winds down with several major retailers set to report results, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Home Depot Inc. (HD.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Staples Inc. (SPLS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and TJX Companies Inc. (TJX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) -- all on Tuesday.
Geopolitics still have the potential to roil markets next week as well, given that Israel said an expanded offensive into Lebanon was set to begin on Friday even as negotiations continued at the United Nations on a cease-fire resolution.
The equity market may struggle to take a firm direction after the Fed's statement earlier this week also left investors unclear about the state of the economy. Stocks rose shortly after the announcement of the pause, only to turn lower once the implications of slowing growth sank in.
The Dow Jones industrial average <DJI> settled down 36.34 points, or 0.33 percent, at 11,088.03 on Friday, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <SPX> 5.07 points lower, or 0.40 percent, at 1,266.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <IXIC> was down 14.03 points, or 0.68 percent, at 2,057.71.
For the week, the Dow fell 1.37 percent, the S&P 500 slipped almost 1 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 1.31 percent.
"There seems to be a large divergence of opinion whether the economy will slow down dramatically and possibly experience a recession next year, and some who feel that once we get past a fairly short-lived period of below-trend growth, that the economy will pick up again," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at brokerage Spencer Clarke in New York.
"It's this divergence that is creating a very choppy and difficult market for investors to navigate right now."
INFLATION WATCH
The Labor Department's report on the U.S. producer price index, set for Tuesday, followed by consumer prices data on Wednesday may give some indication about the Fed's next move.
"Inflation data will be important because the reason the Fed paused was on the premise that as the economy slows, inflation should peak and start to decelerate," Sheldon said.
"If the economy slows as expected, but inflation does not come down, that is likely to force the Fed's hand once again and make it more likely it will have to raise rates. That's not a favorable scenario for the economy or equity markets."
According to economists polled by Reuters, the headline PPI probably rose 0.4 percent in July. Core PPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, is expected to edge up 0.2 percent.
For July CPI, economists are forecasting a 0.4 percent increase and a 0.3 percent rise in the core consumer price index.
After whipping back and forth earlier this week, crude oil prices will likely still be a strong influence on equities, especially with hurricane season in full swing.
"Oil is the other key factor here ... We are closer to $70 than we are to $80, but pressure is on energy for higher prices to come," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist, EKN Financial Services Inc. in New York.
On Friday, U.S. crude oil for September delivery <CLU6> settled at $74.35 a barrel, up 35 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, it fell 0.6 percent.
Stock investors have learned to keep a wary eye on oil because record high prices can ripple through the economy and raise the cost of everything from electricity and gasoline to most consumer goods, which often contain plastics or synthetics derived from crude.
On July 14, U.S. crude oil futures hit a record $78.40 a barrel as the conflict escalated between Israel's army and the Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.
A WINDOW ON HOUSING
One area of the economy that most analysts agree is showing sure signs of slowing is the housing market.
Confidence of U.S. home builders as measured by the National Association of Home Builders Index, due Tuesday, is forecast to fall in August to the lowest level in 15 years. Builders have been plagued by canceled contracts.
Housing starts and building permits data on Wednesday will provide further information on the pace of housing in July.
Economists polled by Reuters predict that July housing starts slowed to an annual pace of 1.806 million units from 1.850 million in June; they see July building permits declining to a pace of 1.840 million units from 1.869 million in June.
"That back-and-forth swaying about inflation concerns and the economy is going to be what's damaging to the market," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in San Francisco.
The University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment on Friday will feed the data-hungry market with the latest snapshot of how the all-important consumer may or may not spend going forward. The Reuters forecast calls for the University of Michigan's preliminary August reading on consumer sentiment to slip to 83.6 from July's 84.7.
RETAILERS' REPORT CARDS DUE
After Tuesday's string of earnings reports from Wal-Mart, Home Depot and other big-box retailers, Wall Street will get results on Thursday from apparel retailers Gap Inc. (GPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Limited Brands Inc. (LTD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN.N: Quote, Profile, Research).
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD.O: Quote, Profile, Research) also is scheduled to deliver quarterly results on Thursday.
Looking at retail sales data released on Friday, "it looks like sales have come back in July. The second quarter wasn't a bang-up quarter, but we're off to a strong third quarter," said Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer with LPL Financial Services in Boston.
The No. 2 personal computer maker Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will announce its quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by rival Dell Inc. (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday.
As for the whole S&P 500, Anderson said, "It's looking like yet another very strong quarter for earnings, up something like 14 percent from the same quarter last year, and so far this year, a 9 (percent) to 10 percent increase in S&P operating earnings," Anderson said.
Reuters Estimates now expects growth in the second-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies at 12.5 percent over the year-ago period, with 90 percent of those companies having reported results so far. That's an increase from an estimate of 12 percent a week ago, said Ashwani Kaul, senior market analytics specialist at Reuters Estimates.
One caveat for the week ahead is seasonal, according to Hyman of EKN Financial Services. He expects low volume.
"It's August ... the trading desks have disappeared. I wouldn't expect it to break out of the range." (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this column can be e-mailed to: jennifer.coogan(at)reuters.com) (Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, Chris Sanders and Julie Haviv)
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
Fri Aug 11, 2006 6:40pm ET
Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stocks seek clarity on inflation, growth
Jennifer Coogan
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Investors will keep a sharp eye on inflation data next week with Wall Street anxious for any indication of whether the Federal Reserve will remain paused at its September meeting or resume hiking rates.
Aside from macroeconomic themes, earnings season winds down with several major retailers set to report results, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Home Depot Inc. (HD.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Staples Inc. (SPLS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and TJX Companies Inc. (TJX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) -- all on Tuesday.
Geopolitics still have the potential to roil markets next week as well, given that Israel said an expanded offensive into Lebanon was set to begin on Friday even as negotiations continued at the United Nations on a cease-fire resolution.
The equity market may struggle to take a firm direction after the Fed's statement earlier this week also left investors unclear about the state of the economy. Stocks rose shortly after the announcement of the pause, only to turn lower once the implications of slowing growth sank in.
The Dow Jones industrial average <DJI> settled down 36.34 points, or 0.33 percent, at 11,088.03 on Friday, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <SPX> 5.07 points lower, or 0.40 percent, at 1,266.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <IXIC> was down 14.03 points, or 0.68 percent, at 2,057.71.
For the week, the Dow fell 1.37 percent, the S&P 500 slipped almost 1 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 1.31 percent.
"There seems to be a large divergence of opinion whether the economy will slow down dramatically and possibly experience a recession next year, and some who feel that once we get past a fairly short-lived period of below-trend growth, that the economy will pick up again," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at brokerage Spencer Clarke in New York.
"It's this divergence that is creating a very choppy and difficult market for investors to navigate right now."
INFLATION WATCH
The Labor Department's report on the U.S. producer price index, set for Tuesday, followed by consumer prices data on Wednesday may give some indication about the Fed's next move.
"Inflation data will be important because the reason the Fed paused was on the premise that as the economy slows, inflation should peak and start to decelerate," Sheldon said.
"If the economy slows as expected, but inflation does not come down, that is likely to force the Fed's hand once again and make it more likely it will have to raise rates. That's not a favorable scenario for the economy or equity markets."
According to economists polled by Reuters, the headline PPI probably rose 0.4 percent in July. Core PPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, is expected to edge up 0.2 percent.
For July CPI, economists are forecasting a 0.4 percent increase and a 0.3 percent rise in the core consumer price index.
After whipping back and forth earlier this week, crude oil prices will likely still be a strong influence on equities, especially with hurricane season in full swing.
"Oil is the other key factor here ... We are closer to $70 than we are to $80, but pressure is on energy for higher prices to come," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist, EKN Financial Services Inc. in New York.
On Friday, U.S. crude oil for September delivery <CLU6> settled at $74.35 a barrel, up 35 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, it fell 0.6 percent.
Stock investors have learned to keep a wary eye on oil because record high prices can ripple through the economy and raise the cost of everything from electricity and gasoline to most consumer goods, which often contain plastics or synthetics derived from crude.
On July 14, U.S. crude oil futures hit a record $78.40 a barrel as the conflict escalated between Israel's army and the Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.
A WINDOW ON HOUSING
One area of the economy that most analysts agree is showing sure signs of slowing is the housing market.
Confidence of U.S. home builders as measured by the National Association of Home Builders Index, due Tuesday, is forecast to fall in August to the lowest level in 15 years. Builders have been plagued by canceled contracts.
Housing starts and building permits data on Wednesday will provide further information on the pace of housing in July.
Economists polled by Reuters predict that July housing starts slowed to an annual pace of 1.806 million units from 1.850 million in June; they see July building permits declining to a pace of 1.840 million units from 1.869 million in June.
"That back-and-forth swaying about inflation concerns and the economy is going to be what's damaging to the market," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in San Francisco.
The University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment on Friday will feed the data-hungry market with the latest snapshot of how the all-important consumer may or may not spend going forward. The Reuters forecast calls for the University of Michigan's preliminary August reading on consumer sentiment to slip to 83.6 from July's 84.7.
RETAILERS' REPORT CARDS DUE
After Tuesday's string of earnings reports from Wal-Mart, Home Depot and other big-box retailers, Wall Street will get results on Thursday from apparel retailers Gap Inc. (GPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Limited Brands Inc. (LTD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN.N: Quote, Profile, Research).
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD.O: Quote, Profile, Research) also is scheduled to deliver quarterly results on Thursday.
Looking at retail sales data released on Friday, "it looks like sales have come back in July. The second quarter wasn't a bang-up quarter, but we're off to a strong third quarter," said Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer with LPL Financial Services in Boston.
The No. 2 personal computer maker Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will announce its quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by rival Dell Inc. (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday.
As for the whole S&P 500, Anderson said, "It's looking like yet another very strong quarter for earnings, up something like 14 percent from the same quarter last year, and so far this year, a 9 (percent) to 10 percent increase in S&P operating earnings," Anderson said.
Reuters Estimates now expects growth in the second-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies at 12.5 percent over the year-ago period, with 90 percent of those companies having reported results so far. That's an increase from an estimate of 12 percent a week ago, said Ashwani Kaul, senior market analytics specialist at Reuters Estimates.
One caveat for the week ahead is seasonal, according to Hyman of EKN Financial Services. He expects low volume.
"It's August ... the trading desks have disappeared. I wouldn't expect it to break out of the range." (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this column can be e-mailed to: jennifer.coogan(at)reuters.com) (Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, Chris Sanders and Julie Haviv)
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
l'analisi degli indici azionari USA
Dall'inizio dell'anno ad oggi sebbene gli indici più importanti non siano eccessivamente lontani dai massimi diversi importanti indici settoriali hanno mostrato una maggiore debolezza ed uno dopo l'altro hanno subito correzioni importanti.
In realtà il primo settore forte ha mostrare debolezza è stato nel 2005 il settore delle costruzioni
ma è con il 2006 che la situazione è peggiorata.
Ad Aprile i principali indici tecnologici hanno effettuato un massimo ed hanno cominciato a correggere, in seguito con i massimi di maggio hanno cominciato a mostrare una certa debolezza gli indici dei titoli medi e piccoli (come il Russell2000 o il MID)
mentre in Luglio ha cominciato ad indebolirsi il DJtansportation
Il mercato ha mantenuto forza essenzialmente in diversi settori difensivi (utility e big pharma)
nei leaders assoluti del rialzo (energy e commodity industriali) e nel settore finanziario.
La ricerca dei settori difensivi, la concentrazione sui settori più forti ed un settore finanziario levereggiato sulla liquidità e sui trend finanziari mostra uno scenario difensivo sebbene più convinto di un soft lending e di una correzione del trend piuttosto che della sua fine.
Infatti sebbene molti degli indicatori di riduzione del rischio (quali il rapporto ndx/indu ed il rapporto sox/ndx) mostrano una certa debolezza di fondo
e gli indicatori di sentiment quali il CPC o il VIX sembrano mostrare la fine del trend in discesa visto negli ultimi tre anni
il cosidetto panico non si è ancora impadronito del mercato in termini di liquidazione degli assett più rischiosi in quanto lo spread tra titoli di stato US e obbligazioni ad alto rischio (sotto la tripla B-) si è alzato di poco e solo a causa dell'aumento dei tassi.
C'è da dire che il VIX mostra attualmente un andamento simile a quello avuto nel 1994 (e non solo quello...) quando il mercato effettuò una correzione del 10%, poi effettuò un recupero ed un retest dei minimi prima di partire per un forte rally.
Guardando però gli internals vengono delle conferme sul deterioramento della struttura complessiva del mercato.
L'indice che rapporta i titoli su nuovi massimi e quelli su nuovi minimi (a 52 settimane) mostra un lento deterioramento.
L' A/D line complessiva del nyse sembrerebbe mostrare una struttura bullish
ma se si osserva l'A/D line del nyse pesata sul rappporto tra volumi al rialzo e volumi al ribasso la struttura cambia mostrando una certa distribuzione complessiva dei valori.
Queta figura viene confermata anche dall' A/D line del nyse che tiene conto solo delle azioni ed esclude la azioni convertibili e quelle legate ai bond.
Sappiamo poi che negli ultimi sei anni lo spike del rapporto intermarket tra silver e gold cioè del rapporto tra la forza della crescita economica rispetto alla disponibilità di moneta è stata strettamente legata ai massimi di medio lungo termine dei mercati azionari.
Questo probabilmente perchè lo spike segnala un eccesso di ottimismo sulla crescita rispetto alla presenza di moneta nel sistema.
Lo spike avuto ad Aprile è simile a quello effettuato nel 2004 che ha portato ad una correzione di circa 5 mesi dell'azionario.
Come visto sopra la situazione di medio risulta in deterioramento mentre sul breve ci sono le condizioni per un nuovo importante rimbalzo che avvenga nel corso della prossima settimana e si prolunghi per alcune settimane. (questo dipenderà anche dalle reazioni geopolitiche e dall'andamento dell'oil + dai dati sull'inflazione USA, dati negativi e crescita del petrolio sostenuta potrebbero negativizzare lo scenario proposto )
Il motivo di un possibile rimbalzo sono nelle condizioni di ipervenduto degli indici più deboli e del prossimo test di importanti supporti (vedi grafici sopra) unito alle condizioni di forte pessimismo che caratterizza il sentiment degli investitori individuali.
I target dell'eventuale rimbalzo potrebbero essere collocati tra i massimi di maggio ed i massimi dei rimbalzi successivi.
A supporto di uno scenario di breve positivo abbiamo anche la statistica che mostra la prossima settimana come una settimana mediamente positiva (con le dovute eccezioni comunque...)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5697.htm
Ritornando al medio invece c'è da considerare che anche dal punto di vista macro diversi settori importanti in fase di correzione sembrano mostrare la necessità di una ulteriore debolezza prima di ricominciare la strada del recupero.
Qua posto una grafico sull'indice dei semiconduttori ma simili analisi (non identiche naturalmente) si possono fare anche per il Trasportation ed il settore delle costruzioni.
Dall'inizio dell'anno ad oggi sebbene gli indici più importanti non siano eccessivamente lontani dai massimi diversi importanti indici settoriali hanno mostrato una maggiore debolezza ed uno dopo l'altro hanno subito correzioni importanti.
In realtà il primo settore forte ha mostrare debolezza è stato nel 2005 il settore delle costruzioni
ma è con il 2006 che la situazione è peggiorata.
Ad Aprile i principali indici tecnologici hanno effettuato un massimo ed hanno cominciato a correggere, in seguito con i massimi di maggio hanno cominciato a mostrare una certa debolezza gli indici dei titoli medi e piccoli (come il Russell2000 o il MID)
mentre in Luglio ha cominciato ad indebolirsi il DJtansportation
Il mercato ha mantenuto forza essenzialmente in diversi settori difensivi (utility e big pharma)
nei leaders assoluti del rialzo (energy e commodity industriali) e nel settore finanziario.
La ricerca dei settori difensivi, la concentrazione sui settori più forti ed un settore finanziario levereggiato sulla liquidità e sui trend finanziari mostra uno scenario difensivo sebbene più convinto di un soft lending e di una correzione del trend piuttosto che della sua fine.
Infatti sebbene molti degli indicatori di riduzione del rischio (quali il rapporto ndx/indu ed il rapporto sox/ndx) mostrano una certa debolezza di fondo
e gli indicatori di sentiment quali il CPC o il VIX sembrano mostrare la fine del trend in discesa visto negli ultimi tre anni
il cosidetto panico non si è ancora impadronito del mercato in termini di liquidazione degli assett più rischiosi in quanto lo spread tra titoli di stato US e obbligazioni ad alto rischio (sotto la tripla B-) si è alzato di poco e solo a causa dell'aumento dei tassi.
C'è da dire che il VIX mostra attualmente un andamento simile a quello avuto nel 1994 (e non solo quello...) quando il mercato effettuò una correzione del 10%, poi effettuò un recupero ed un retest dei minimi prima di partire per un forte rally.
Guardando però gli internals vengono delle conferme sul deterioramento della struttura complessiva del mercato.
L'indice che rapporta i titoli su nuovi massimi e quelli su nuovi minimi (a 52 settimane) mostra un lento deterioramento.
L' A/D line complessiva del nyse sembrerebbe mostrare una struttura bullish
ma se si osserva l'A/D line del nyse pesata sul rappporto tra volumi al rialzo e volumi al ribasso la struttura cambia mostrando una certa distribuzione complessiva dei valori.
Queta figura viene confermata anche dall' A/D line del nyse che tiene conto solo delle azioni ed esclude la azioni convertibili e quelle legate ai bond.
Sappiamo poi che negli ultimi sei anni lo spike del rapporto intermarket tra silver e gold cioè del rapporto tra la forza della crescita economica rispetto alla disponibilità di moneta è stata strettamente legata ai massimi di medio lungo termine dei mercati azionari.
Questo probabilmente perchè lo spike segnala un eccesso di ottimismo sulla crescita rispetto alla presenza di moneta nel sistema.
Lo spike avuto ad Aprile è simile a quello effettuato nel 2004 che ha portato ad una correzione di circa 5 mesi dell'azionario.
Come visto sopra la situazione di medio risulta in deterioramento mentre sul breve ci sono le condizioni per un nuovo importante rimbalzo che avvenga nel corso della prossima settimana e si prolunghi per alcune settimane. (questo dipenderà anche dalle reazioni geopolitiche e dall'andamento dell'oil + dai dati sull'inflazione USA, dati negativi e crescita del petrolio sostenuta potrebbero negativizzare lo scenario proposto )
Il motivo di un possibile rimbalzo sono nelle condizioni di ipervenduto degli indici più deboli e del prossimo test di importanti supporti (vedi grafici sopra) unito alle condizioni di forte pessimismo che caratterizza il sentiment degli investitori individuali.
I target dell'eventuale rimbalzo potrebbero essere collocati tra i massimi di maggio ed i massimi dei rimbalzi successivi.
A supporto di uno scenario di breve positivo abbiamo anche la statistica che mostra la prossima settimana come una settimana mediamente positiva (con le dovute eccezioni comunque...)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5697.htm
Ritornando al medio invece c'è da considerare che anche dal punto di vista macro diversi settori importanti in fase di correzione sembrano mostrare la necessità di una ulteriore debolezza prima di ricominciare la strada del recupero.
Qua posto una grafico sull'indice dei semiconduttori ma simili analisi (non identiche naturalmente) si possono fare anche per il Trasportation ed il settore delle costruzioni.
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