Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18) (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione f4f
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
non saprei dirti frank , io sto da sempre sul -T-bronx + 10y
sul Bund-10y è più faticoso perchè devi tener d'occhio anche il cambio ,
parli comunque di fare una operazione di breve-issimo?
sul Bund-10y è più faticoso perchè devi tener d'occhio anche il cambio ,
parli comunque di fare una operazione di breve-issimo?
Tnote ha scadenza a 2y??
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
yess c'è anche il 2y ma iw non so perchè non lo offre 
sull'eurex us danno anche il 3y ma scambia na cippa
sull'eurex us danno anche il 3y ma scambia na cippa
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
opsss piccolo spike dello S&Pmin a prendere qualche stop
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Treasuries dip as oil offsets weak consumer data
Fri Jul 14, 2006
By Richard Leong
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were flat to slightly lower on Friday, as record high oil prices raised concerns about inflation, washing out gains from an earlier flight to quality prompted by geopolitical worries.
Unexpected declines in June U.S. retail sales and in an early July reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan bolstered the view of slowing economic growth. For details see [ID:nN14367291].
The data also supported the view that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates no more than once the rest of the year, analysts said.
"It supports the ongoing trend for the Fed of 'one and done' or a pause," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The surprise weakness in the University of Michigan data was "not big enough of an expectations move to stand out for stocks and bonds," Paulsen said.
Treasury prices had risen in overseas trading on a widely expected move by the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for the first time in six years. Global bond markets climbed as the Japanese central bank gave no hint of further rate increases.
Buying of Treasuries, however, did not pick up much in the wake of the U.S. consumer data, which would typically lift bond prices. Bond players were paring positions in case of surprises in next week's consumer inflation report and testimony to congress on the economy by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, analysts said.
Short-dated Treasuries, which are more sensitive to changes in Fed policy, were performing better than long maturity issues, suggesting that worries about inflation due to high energy prices were having more of an effect on traders than were concerns about more Fed rate hikes. Inflation affects long-dated debt, eroding the value of fixed income securities.
Inflation fears have been fanned this week by surging oil prices due to intensified fighting in the Middle East.
Treasury two-year notes <US2YT=RR>, were unchanged in price to yield 5.11 percent, down 1 basis points from late Thursday.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> were down 1/32 in price, after gaining as much as 5/32 after the retail sales data, to yield 5.07 percent, unchanged from late Thursday.
U.S. rate futures signaled that traders are pricing in a 51 percent chance the Fed will raise rates by a quarter percentage point in August, down from a 60 percent chance late Thursday.
U.S. crude oil futures <CLc1> posted a record high at $78.40 a barrel on the clash between Israel and Lebanon.
CONSUMER SPENDING, MOOD WEAKER
The U.S. government reported that overall retail sales slipped 0.1 percent in June from May but sales excluding autos rose 0.3 percent. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted that sales, both overall and ex-auto, would rise 0.4 percent.
A weaker-than-expected 0.1 percent increase in import prices in June was brushed off by traders, analysts said
The University of Michigan's preliminary July reading on U.S. consumer sentiment was 83.0, down from the final June figure of 84.9 and the median forecast of 85.5.
Bond players have been preoccupied by factors besides economic indicators, analysts said.
"There is also a lot of focus on geopolitical events," said Beth Malloy, bond market analyst at Briefing.com in Chicago.
Escalating violence in the Middle East has spurred jittery investors to shift money from stocks into lower-risk assets such as Treasuries, analysts said.
Stocks <.DJI> traded lower on Friday after the unexpectedly weak retail sales and University of Michigan reports adding to worries over high oil prices and escalation global tensions.
Treasury note and bond yields have been running below the Fed's current rate target of 5.25 percent. (Additional reporting by John Parry)
Fri Jul 14, 2006
By Richard Leong
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were flat to slightly lower on Friday, as record high oil prices raised concerns about inflation, washing out gains from an earlier flight to quality prompted by geopolitical worries.
Unexpected declines in June U.S. retail sales and in an early July reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan bolstered the view of slowing economic growth. For details see [ID:nN14367291].
The data also supported the view that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates no more than once the rest of the year, analysts said.
"It supports the ongoing trend for the Fed of 'one and done' or a pause," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The surprise weakness in the University of Michigan data was "not big enough of an expectations move to stand out for stocks and bonds," Paulsen said.
Treasury prices had risen in overseas trading on a widely expected move by the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for the first time in six years. Global bond markets climbed as the Japanese central bank gave no hint of further rate increases.
Buying of Treasuries, however, did not pick up much in the wake of the U.S. consumer data, which would typically lift bond prices. Bond players were paring positions in case of surprises in next week's consumer inflation report and testimony to congress on the economy by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, analysts said.
Short-dated Treasuries, which are more sensitive to changes in Fed policy, were performing better than long maturity issues, suggesting that worries about inflation due to high energy prices were having more of an effect on traders than were concerns about more Fed rate hikes. Inflation affects long-dated debt, eroding the value of fixed income securities.
Inflation fears have been fanned this week by surging oil prices due to intensified fighting in the Middle East.
Treasury two-year notes <US2YT=RR>, were unchanged in price to yield 5.11 percent, down 1 basis points from late Thursday.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> were down 1/32 in price, after gaining as much as 5/32 after the retail sales data, to yield 5.07 percent, unchanged from late Thursday.
U.S. rate futures signaled that traders are pricing in a 51 percent chance the Fed will raise rates by a quarter percentage point in August, down from a 60 percent chance late Thursday.
U.S. crude oil futures <CLc1> posted a record high at $78.40 a barrel on the clash between Israel and Lebanon.
CONSUMER SPENDING, MOOD WEAKER
The U.S. government reported that overall retail sales slipped 0.1 percent in June from May but sales excluding autos rose 0.3 percent. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted that sales, both overall and ex-auto, would rise 0.4 percent.
A weaker-than-expected 0.1 percent increase in import prices in June was brushed off by traders, analysts said
The University of Michigan's preliminary July reading on U.S. consumer sentiment was 83.0, down from the final June figure of 84.9 and the median forecast of 85.5.
Bond players have been preoccupied by factors besides economic indicators, analysts said.
"There is also a lot of focus on geopolitical events," said Beth Malloy, bond market analyst at Briefing.com in Chicago.
Escalating violence in the Middle East has spurred jittery investors to shift money from stocks into lower-risk assets such as Treasuries, analysts said.
Stocks <.DJI> traded lower on Friday after the unexpectedly weak retail sales and University of Michigan reports adding to worries over high oil prices and escalation global tensions.
Treasury note and bond yields have been running below the Fed's current rate target of 5.25 percent. (Additional reporting by John Parry)
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Japan raises rates first time in 6 years
Fri Jul 14, 2006
By Chisa Fujioka
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's central bank raised interest rates for the first time in six years on Friday, lifting its key rate to 0.25 percent from zero and affirming the end of a long era of deflation and economic stagnation.
The Bank of Japan joined central banks in the United States and Europe that have already embarked on a credit-tightening cycle, although Japanese interest rates remain minuscule and are likely to stay low for a long time yet.
"We will adjust interest rates gradually while carefully checking the economy and prices," BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui told a news conference.
The BOJ does not intend to carry out consecutive rate hikes such as those implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve, he added.
In a statement accompanying the decision, the BOJ said keeping interest rates at zero might have caused disruptive swings in the economy and prices. But it added that "very low interest rates will probably be maintained for some time."
Markets had largely factored in the rise in the overnight call rate, but the yen fell on confirmation that it would be a while yet before Japan's interest rates caught up to those in the rest of the world.
The Nikkei share average closed down 1.67 percent as worries resurfaced about the impact of high oil prices -- another factor that could deter the BOJ from raising rates aggressively.
"This is a historic event," said Paul Sheard, chief economist at Lehman Brothers. "Barring the hike in August 2000, which turned out to be a false start, the last time that the bank started a tightening cycle was May 1989."
Still, the impact of the rate rise on the economy is likely to be minimal, said Mamoru Yamazaki, senior economist at HSBC Securities. "Looking at the pace in price increases, I don't expect the next rate rise until the January-March quarter."
At the news conference, Fukui repeated that he intended to stay in his job despite a public outcry over his links to an equity fund whose manager has been indicted for insider trading.
While the scandal did not stop the BOJ from raising rates, it could resurface now that the decision is out of the way. Opinion polls show about 70 percent of the public want Fukui to quit.
ECONOMY EXPANDING
The end to the abnormal interest rate regime is a feather in the cap of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who took office in April 2001 pledging painful reforms to fix the stagnant economy.
"In a certain sense, it's a recognition of all the things that have been accomplished in the last few years," said Robert Feldman, chief economist for Japan at Morgan Stanley.
Koizumi will step down in September.
While risks such as financial market volatility and a slowdown in the U.S. economy remain, the BOJ appears confident that Japan's economy is headed for a long recovery.
Japan is now enjoying its second-longest period of growth of the post-war period. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent in the January-March quarter.
As well, consumer prices have been rising for seven months, after more than seven years of deflation that had been blamed for crimping consumer spending and corporate investment.
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who had again urged caution ahead of the BOJ decision, said afterwards that it was too early to discuss raising interest rates further.
The finance ministry is concerned that higher interest rates will raise the costs of funding the massive state debt, which is expected to rise to 775 trillion yen ($6.8 trillion) by next March, or some 150 percent of gross domestic product.
Government officials also want to avert the nightmare of the BOJ's last rate rise in August 2000. That increase, also to 0.25 percent from zero, coincided with the bursting of the dot-com bubble and was followed by an economic slump.
Unlike in 2000, government representatives at the policy-setting meeting did not formally ask the board to delay its decision. The independent board does not have to heed government requests in any case.
Overnight call money rates, the BOJ's target, jumped in anticipation of a hike, prompting the central bank to pump the equivalent of $13.9 billion into the money market.
With a rate rise seen as a done deal, much of the market's focus had been on how much the BOJ would raise the official discount rate, which it uses for its Lombard lending to banks.
The BOJ hiked the rate to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent. Market participants had expected the BOJ to lift that rate to somewhere between 0.35 and 0.5 percent.
Lombard lending can supplement interbank lending for borrowers who are unable to tap money from the markets.
The BOJ paved the way for a rate rise in March when it scrapped its five-year-old "quantitative easing" policy of flooding the banking system with excess funds, reverting to a conventional policy of controlling short-term interest rates.
An overnight call rate of 0.25 percent still pales in comparison with key rates in other big economies.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates 17 straight times since mid-2004 to 5.25 percent, while the European Central Bank has raised rates three times since December to 2.75 percent.
Fri Jul 14, 2006
By Chisa Fujioka
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's central bank raised interest rates for the first time in six years on Friday, lifting its key rate to 0.25 percent from zero and affirming the end of a long era of deflation and economic stagnation.
The Bank of Japan joined central banks in the United States and Europe that have already embarked on a credit-tightening cycle, although Japanese interest rates remain minuscule and are likely to stay low for a long time yet.
"We will adjust interest rates gradually while carefully checking the economy and prices," BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui told a news conference.
The BOJ does not intend to carry out consecutive rate hikes such as those implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve, he added.
In a statement accompanying the decision, the BOJ said keeping interest rates at zero might have caused disruptive swings in the economy and prices. But it added that "very low interest rates will probably be maintained for some time."
Markets had largely factored in the rise in the overnight call rate, but the yen fell on confirmation that it would be a while yet before Japan's interest rates caught up to those in the rest of the world.
The Nikkei share average closed down 1.67 percent as worries resurfaced about the impact of high oil prices -- another factor that could deter the BOJ from raising rates aggressively.
"This is a historic event," said Paul Sheard, chief economist at Lehman Brothers. "Barring the hike in August 2000, which turned out to be a false start, the last time that the bank started a tightening cycle was May 1989."
Still, the impact of the rate rise on the economy is likely to be minimal, said Mamoru Yamazaki, senior economist at HSBC Securities. "Looking at the pace in price increases, I don't expect the next rate rise until the January-March quarter."
At the news conference, Fukui repeated that he intended to stay in his job despite a public outcry over his links to an equity fund whose manager has been indicted for insider trading.
While the scandal did not stop the BOJ from raising rates, it could resurface now that the decision is out of the way. Opinion polls show about 70 percent of the public want Fukui to quit.
ECONOMY EXPANDING
The end to the abnormal interest rate regime is a feather in the cap of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who took office in April 2001 pledging painful reforms to fix the stagnant economy.
"In a certain sense, it's a recognition of all the things that have been accomplished in the last few years," said Robert Feldman, chief economist for Japan at Morgan Stanley.
Koizumi will step down in September.
While risks such as financial market volatility and a slowdown in the U.S. economy remain, the BOJ appears confident that Japan's economy is headed for a long recovery.
Japan is now enjoying its second-longest period of growth of the post-war period. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent in the January-March quarter.
As well, consumer prices have been rising for seven months, after more than seven years of deflation that had been blamed for crimping consumer spending and corporate investment.
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who had again urged caution ahead of the BOJ decision, said afterwards that it was too early to discuss raising interest rates further.
The finance ministry is concerned that higher interest rates will raise the costs of funding the massive state debt, which is expected to rise to 775 trillion yen ($6.8 trillion) by next March, or some 150 percent of gross domestic product.
Government officials also want to avert the nightmare of the BOJ's last rate rise in August 2000. That increase, also to 0.25 percent from zero, coincided with the bursting of the dot-com bubble and was followed by an economic slump.
Unlike in 2000, government representatives at the policy-setting meeting did not formally ask the board to delay its decision. The independent board does not have to heed government requests in any case.
Overnight call money rates, the BOJ's target, jumped in anticipation of a hike, prompting the central bank to pump the equivalent of $13.9 billion into the money market.
With a rate rise seen as a done deal, much of the market's focus had been on how much the BOJ would raise the official discount rate, which it uses for its Lombard lending to banks.
The BOJ hiked the rate to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent. Market participants had expected the BOJ to lift that rate to somewhere between 0.35 and 0.5 percent.
Lombard lending can supplement interbank lending for borrowers who are unable to tap money from the markets.
The BOJ paved the way for a rate rise in March when it scrapped its five-year-old "quantitative easing" policy of flooding the banking system with excess funds, reverting to a conventional policy of controlling short-term interest rates.
An overnight call rate of 0.25 percent still pales in comparison with key rates in other big economies.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates 17 straight times since mid-2004 to 5.25 percent, while the European Central Bank has raised rates three times since December to 2.75 percent.
