f4f ha scritto:
ke jurnata ... vabbè
in fact il bernakka non la finisce più di parlare,a sentire lui e a vedere i fedfunds le chance di rialzo 0,25 in agosto si son ridotte
Futures cut chances of Aug rate hike on Bernanke
Wed Jul 19, 2006
By Ros Krasny
OMAHA, Nebraska, July 19 (Reuters) -- Prospects reflected in futures for another Federal Reserve rate increase in August tumbled on Wednesday after dovishly construed testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The rally in futures, where chances of Fed rate hikes move inversely to prices, erased an earlier slump on the June consumer price index report, which put traders on high alert for rising inflation and more Fed tightening.
Bernanke's comment that U.S. inflation should start to moderate in coming quarters knocked the chance of an Aug. 8 rate increase from the Federal Open Market Committee back down to about 70 percent to over 90 percent after the CPI data.
The Fed chief said the economy appears to be in transition, with an anticipated moderation in growth under way.
"As he thinks he'll get the slowdown he wants, it is hard to see why Mr. Bernanke would want to hike again," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "Markets are overstating the risk of an Aug. 8 hike."
Prospects for a rate hike in August are now broadly within the range seen since the conclusion of the previous meeting on June 29.
"Bernanke's words were not what the market was expecting today, as he sounded a slightly dovish warning about the lags between policy actions and that the Fed must be forward looking," said Rudy Narvas, analyst at 4CAST Ltd. in New York.
Earlier, a fourth consecutive 0.3-percent monthly increase in U.S. consumer prices in June heightened the futures' implied probabilty of an 18th consecutive rate increase from the Fed. Another 25 basis points would carry the fed funds rate to 5.5 percent. The futures' implied probability jumped as high as 95 percent, a level hit momentarily, rising from the 67 percent implied probability at the close on Tuesday.
The Labor Department said rising rents pushed up U.S. core consumer prices by 0.3 percent in June, although energy costs were lower.
"The string of core rate increases of around 0.3 percent continued -- far too high to be acceptable to the Federal Reserve," said Cary Leahey, economist at Decision Economics in New York.
Core prices have advanced at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the past six months and 3.6 percent in the past three months. It was the highest six-month rate since June 1995.
U.S Treasuries turn higher on Bernanke comments
Wed Jul 19, 2006
NEW YORK, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned higher on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke painted an upbeat picture on the inflation outlook, soothing investors' fears of an interest rate hike in August.
Bernanke told Congress that the Fed expected core inflation to decline in coming quarters, but was seen between 2-2.25 percent in 2007.
His comments helped government bond prices shed early losses, which were triggered by a report that core consumer prices jumped 0.3 percent in June, exceeding Wall Street's expectations for a 0.2 percent rise.
"Treasuries came back to even better than pre-CPI levels, after the strong CPI number had warranted a selloff. The market perceives the initial highlights of Bernanke's testimony to indicate that he is less hawkish than people expected him to be, given the inflation data," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist, Dwight Asset Management, Burlington, Vermon.
Two-year notes <US2YT> -- which respond closely to expectations for Fed interest rate moves -- traded up 4/32 in price to yield 5.14 percent, versus 5.23 percent shortly before the remarks and compared with 5.19 percent late on Tuesday.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> rose 11/32 in price for a yield of 5.09 percent, versus 5.16 percent shortly before the remarks and versus 5.14 percent late on Tuesday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.
The market has now reduced the chances of a 25 basis points interest rate hike in August to 70 percent from 90 percent earlier.
The Fed has raised interest rates at each of its last 17 policy meetings.