Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione sentex
- Data di Inizio
m.m.f
Forumer storico
...che si stia autoisolando appare evidente da tempo .
fabriziof
Forumer storico
m.m.f
Forumer storico
m.m.f
Forumer storico
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Turkey Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019
Incoming data for Q1 remains weak. Consumer sentiment fell again in February on a pessimistic outlook on the economy. Coupled with the softest growth in consumer credit in over 16 years in January, this bodes ill for household consumption in Q1. Moreover, business confidence stayed pessimistic and the manufacturing PMI remained entrenched in contractionary territory in February. This follows a likely weak outturn in Q4 2018. Private consumption suffered from high inflation and interest rates, as highlighted by the steepest retail sales contraction in December since current records began. Moreover, in the same month, the current account balance registered the first deficit in five months on lower goods exports. Against this backdrop, parliament recently granted President Erdogan emergency powers over the economy, in a move that raises governance risks given the higher concentration of power.
Turkey Economic Growth
The economy seems set to remain fragile this year as restrictive financial conditions dent domestic demand. Nevertheless, a likely recovery in H2 should give the Central Bank room to spur domestic demand, while the external sector should provide further support. Risks relating to currency volatility and a possible renewal of geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to shrink 0.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.0% in 2020.
March 5, 2019
Incoming data for Q1 remains weak. Consumer sentiment fell again in February on a pessimistic outlook on the economy. Coupled with the softest growth in consumer credit in over 16 years in January, this bodes ill for household consumption in Q1. Moreover, business confidence stayed pessimistic and the manufacturing PMI remained entrenched in contractionary territory in February. This follows a likely weak outturn in Q4 2018. Private consumption suffered from high inflation and interest rates, as highlighted by the steepest retail sales contraction in December since current records began. Moreover, in the same month, the current account balance registered the first deficit in five months on lower goods exports. Against this backdrop, parliament recently granted President Erdogan emergency powers over the economy, in a move that raises governance risks given the higher concentration of power.
Turkey Economic Growth
The economy seems set to remain fragile this year as restrictive financial conditions dent domestic demand. Nevertheless, a likely recovery in H2 should give the Central Bank room to spur domestic demand, while the external sector should provide further support. Risks relating to currency volatility and a possible renewal of geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to shrink 0.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.0% in 2020.
Owblisky
Compravendite mobiliari
La cosa che metterei in evidenza è il ritorno in deficit del CA.
Ridurre i tassi (e quindi importare inflazione a causa della svalutazione) non servirebbe a nulla.
Per quanto sopra detto (se Erdogan non fà pazzie) sarebbe lecito attendersi una Lira stabile o in leggero cedimento, ma comunque senza grossi scossoni.
Ridurre i tassi (e quindi importare inflazione a causa della svalutazione) non servirebbe a nulla.
Per quanto sopra detto (se Erdogan non fà pazzie) sarebbe lecito attendersi una Lira stabile o in leggero cedimento, ma comunque senza grossi scossoni.