iguanito
Forumer storico
Dipende; più dei bei direi le ebrd
Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca
- Creatore Discussione sentex
- Data di Inizio
Abulico
Forumer storico
m.m.f
Forumer storico
...tu non pensi che sia il rafforzamento del dollaro a causare l'indebolimento della try (oltre al resto ovviamente)?
Owblisky
Compravendite mobiliari
Il dollaro non ha fatto una piega, sulla notizia dei tassi, è rimasto in area 1,1130 dove è da ieri.
La Lira è passata da +0,28% a + 1,32% in 30 secondi.
Poi in ambito generale un dollaro forte bene non fà alla TRY, ma questo è un discorso che esula dalla fiammata speculativa.
C.Bonacieux
Forumer attivo
sì, hai ragione, ho guardato troppo in fretta
m.m.f
Forumer storico
più che "una fiammata", mi pare abbiano riacceso il fuoco lento e costante,scende tutti i giorni senza tregua.Sè un giorno non scende recuperare quello dopo per due.
EUR TRY Storico Dati - Investing.com
- Chiusura prec.: 6,5468
- Denaro/Lettera: 6,6127 / 6,6189
Owblisky
Compravendite mobiliari
Non ci sono dubbi, il trend di breve è chiaro e palese.
PS: quello di lungo è peggio.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Non ci sono dubbi, il trend di breve è chiaro e palese.
PS: quello di lungo è peggio.
..poi si ripercuote su tutto il resto.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Economics
Turkish Removal of Hawkish Rate Pledge Worsens Lira's Plight
By
Ugur Yilmaz
,
Cagan Koc
, and
Constantine Courcoulas
24 aprile 2019, 20:40 CEST Updated on 25 aprile 2019, 13:53 CEST
Turkey’s central bank dropped a commitment to deliver further monetary tightening if needed as it extended its interest-rate pause to seven months. The lira tumbled to its weakest since October.
The Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Murat Cetinkaya tweaked its forward guidance in a statementaccompanying its decision on Thursday, saying its action “will be determined to keep inflation in line with the targeted path.” The MPC kept the benchmark rate at 24 percent, in line with forecasts.
Investors interpreted the change in language as a dovish turn by the central bank. The lira depreciated as much as 1.5 percent and traded 1.3 percent lower at 5.9512 per dollar at 2:46 p.m. in Istanbul.
“This is much worse than expected and supports the view that policy has gone off the rails,” said Win Thin, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “This signals that any orthodoxy at the central bank has effectively been crushed, since no sane central bank would be leaning dovish at a time like this for Turkey.”
Cetinkaya has pledged to wait for a “convincing” inflation slowdown before cutting rates, but has been stymied by the weaker lira. Investors have soured on Turkey’s currency as the central bank struggled to explain moves in its reserves, fueling concern about the state of the nation’s finances.
The lira is down over 6 percent so far this month against the dollar in the worst performance globally.
“The challenging economic environment is compounded by poor policy and tone-deaf statements,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, said by email. “The risk is that the central bank is forced to hike rates again as the pass-through from the weaker lira prevents stabilization.”
Price pressures abound as inflation still hovers at nearly four times the official target of 5 percent, despite the economy entering its first recession in a decade last year.
The downturn, coupled with a runup in food prices and the highest unemployment since 2009, undermined support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose party suffered unexpected losses in Turkey’s major cities in March 31 municipal elections. Tensions have been high since then as the ruling AK Party is contesting its defeat in commercial hub Istanbul, claiming widespread irregularities and demanding a new vote.
“Turkey needs to keep a tough stance and not ‘give in’ to another short-term credit boost in order to come out of the recession, however tempting that politically may be after the local elections,” said Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Bank AB.
Despite swirling speculation around the health of Turkey’s international reserves and a mix of risks from geopolitics to oil, the central bank restarted one-week repo auctions this month, effectively reversing a surprise monetary tightening it used to steady the lira before last month’s election.
“Clearly the market is disappointed,” said Piotr Matys, a London-based analyst at Rabobank. “It seems that the central bank completely overlooked recent lira’s depreciation and instead of strengthening its hawkish message to provide the battered currency with some support, the overall message embedded in the statement is less hawkish compared to March.
Turkish Removal of Hawkish Rate Pledge Worsens Lira's Plight
By
Ugur Yilmaz
,
Cagan Koc
, and
Constantine Courcoulas
24 aprile 2019, 20:40 CEST Updated on 25 aprile 2019, 13:53 CEST
Turkey’s central bank dropped a commitment to deliver further monetary tightening if needed as it extended its interest-rate pause to seven months. The lira tumbled to its weakest since October.
The Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Murat Cetinkaya tweaked its forward guidance in a statementaccompanying its decision on Thursday, saying its action “will be determined to keep inflation in line with the targeted path.” The MPC kept the benchmark rate at 24 percent, in line with forecasts.
Investors interpreted the change in language as a dovish turn by the central bank. The lira depreciated as much as 1.5 percent and traded 1.3 percent lower at 5.9512 per dollar at 2:46 p.m. in Istanbul.
“This is much worse than expected and supports the view that policy has gone off the rails,” said Win Thin, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “This signals that any orthodoxy at the central bank has effectively been crushed, since no sane central bank would be leaning dovish at a time like this for Turkey.”
Cetinkaya has pledged to wait for a “convincing” inflation slowdown before cutting rates, but has been stymied by the weaker lira. Investors have soured on Turkey’s currency as the central bank struggled to explain moves in its reserves, fueling concern about the state of the nation’s finances.
The lira is down over 6 percent so far this month against the dollar in the worst performance globally.
“The challenging economic environment is compounded by poor policy and tone-deaf statements,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, said by email. “The risk is that the central bank is forced to hike rates again as the pass-through from the weaker lira prevents stabilization.”
Price pressures abound as inflation still hovers at nearly four times the official target of 5 percent, despite the economy entering its first recession in a decade last year.
The downturn, coupled with a runup in food prices and the highest unemployment since 2009, undermined support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose party suffered unexpected losses in Turkey’s major cities in March 31 municipal elections. Tensions have been high since then as the ruling AK Party is contesting its defeat in commercial hub Istanbul, claiming widespread irregularities and demanding a new vote.
“Turkey needs to keep a tough stance and not ‘give in’ to another short-term credit boost in order to come out of the recession, however tempting that politically may be after the local elections,” said Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Bank AB.
Despite swirling speculation around the health of Turkey’s international reserves and a mix of risks from geopolitics to oil, the central bank restarted one-week repo auctions this month, effectively reversing a surprise monetary tightening it used to steady the lira before last month’s election.
“Clearly the market is disappointed,” said Piotr Matys, a London-based analyst at Rabobank. “It seems that the central bank completely overlooked recent lira’s depreciation and instead of strengthening its hawkish message to provide the battered currency with some support, the overall message embedded in the statement is less hawkish compared to March.
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