Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione sentex
- Data di Inizio
m.m.f
Forumer storico
CDS sopra 600,dollaro verso 1,07 e la TRY che rientra brutalmente.Da 7.61 a 7,54. Non male ...Sè sono loro in considerazione della portata e della intensità degli interventi evidentemente le riserve disponibili sono almeno 2 o 3 volte quelle dichiarate...al punto che anche il mercato si "arrende".E ,in un momento di profonda crisi mondiale.
tommy271
Forumer storico
23 Apr 2020 - Scope Ratings GmbH
Turkey: Covid-19 crisis, significant external vulnerabilities present major challenges in 2020
Turkey’s weak external sector, the lira’s depreciation to near record lows and domestic macro-economic imbalances will test the country’s resilience to the Covid-19 crisis this year, especially if reserve adequacy falls further, says Scope Ratings.
Turkey (BB-/Negative) faces significant challenges under current global recessionary and volatile market conditions. The country sees its second recession since 2018, with this one much more severe than the last.
“The Turkish economy has experienced a setback from community distancing protocols and recessions among its most important trading partners alongside the pandemic’s spread domestically, with confirmed cases of coronavirus above 98,000 and quarantine measures in place in in 31 cities, including Istanbul, at the minimum through early May,” says Dennis Shen, analyst at Scope Ratings.
In the 21 April update of Scope’s external vulnerability and resilience rankings, Turkey’s 2020 score included it among the “Risky-3” countries most exposed to external shocks out of a 63-country sample, through factors such as a history of exchange rate volatility, significant foreign-exchange exposure and inadequate reserves.
“A risk of Turkey’s capital outflows re-escalating is a vital area to monitor after emerging market outflows intensified in March as the world economy faces a deeper recession this year than during the global financial crisis,” says Shen. “Turkey’s inherent external sector vulnerabilities, severe macro-economic imbalances, slowing growth and rising unemployment present challenges to economic resilience, especially if risk-off market sentiment were to transform into any broader emerging market crisis.”
In Scope’s 2020 external vulnerability and resilience rankings, Turkey ranked as the sixth least resilient economy of 63 in the advent of a balance of payment crisis.
The lira is 28% weaker against an August 2019 peak against the dollar (trading near record lows of around 7 per dollar at the time of writing). Any further depreciation represents a significant concern given 53% of central government debt is denominated in foreign currency. In addition, there is a significant private sector net FX debt position, which, while curtailed from February 2018 peaks of USD 223bn, totalled USD 175bn in January 2020. The weak lira puts companies saddled with FX debts in a challenging position.
Official reserves declined to USD 89bn as of 10 April compared with a 2013 peak of USD 135bn, while – netting out central bank FX liabilities to domestic banks – official net international reserves dipped to USD 26.3bn as of 10 April, from USD 41.1bn at end-2019. Adjusting for short-term FX swap liabilities that are being excluded from central bank FX liability data, true net international reserves are well below USD 26.3bn. Turkey’s official reserves cover a little above 70% of short-term external debt, from 114% as of 2016. Short-term external debt outstanding was USD 122.5bn in February, mostly representing Turkish bank and corporate external liabilities.
“Weakened reserves mean Turkey is less resilient if capital outflows were to pick up or if lira depreciation gets worse, triggering more aggressive exchange rate intervention by state-owned banks, using remaining reserves, to stabilise the exchange rate,” says Shen.
“Turkey could not sustain an extended balance of payment crisis with current reserves without calling upon external funding support,” says Shen. “However, any external support in such a severe scenario is more likely to derive from bilateral lenders such as Qatar or China than from the IMF – given the Turkish President’s aversion to IMF help.”
External risks are exacerbated by macro-economic imbalances. The policy one-week repo rate was cut an additional 100bps to 8.75% on Wednesday (incrementally from 24% as of July 2019) – implying a negative real policy rate of -2.8% against March inflation of 11.9% YoY. Given the economic contraction, additional rate cuts are possible if not probable. Accommodative monetary policy has amplified lira lending to the domestic economy, rising 19.1% YoY in March.
“Such macro-economic imbalances and longer-standing questions surrounding the quality of Turkey’s macro-economic management are sapping investor confidence especially given globally fragile investor sentiment,” says Shen. “Turkey had only recently begun to recover from the 2018 lira and debt crisis before the pandemic struck – meaning private and public sector balance sheets had not fully healed.”
Net foreign direct investment eased to 0.7% of GDP in the year to February 2020, from 1.4% in the year to February 2019. “Longer term, a key rating-relevant issue relates to the economy’s dependence on short-term types of capital inflows. Substituting hot money flows with foreign direct investment by enhancing the attractiveness of Turkey as a destination for long-term investment is key to engineering a more sustainable economy and easing a record of economic volatility,” says Shen. “This, alongside priorities such as implementing key structural reforms to lower structural inflation and fiscal deficits and manage a balanced current account through the cycle, could help reverse the trajectory of Turkey’s ratings to a more favourable one longer term.”
Analyst Contact: Dennis Shen: [email protected]
Analyst Contact: Alessandro Frazzi: [email protected]
Team Leader: Giacomo Barisone: [email protected]
Press: Matthew Curtin: [email protected]
Scope Ratings GmbH
Turkey: Covid-19 crisis, significant external vulnerabilities present major challenges in 2020
Turkey’s weak external sector, the lira’s depreciation to near record lows and domestic macro-economic imbalances will test the country’s resilience to the Covid-19 crisis this year, especially if reserve adequacy falls further, says Scope Ratings.
Turkey (BB-/Negative) faces significant challenges under current global recessionary and volatile market conditions. The country sees its second recession since 2018, with this one much more severe than the last.
“The Turkish economy has experienced a setback from community distancing protocols and recessions among its most important trading partners alongside the pandemic’s spread domestically, with confirmed cases of coronavirus above 98,000 and quarantine measures in place in in 31 cities, including Istanbul, at the minimum through early May,” says Dennis Shen, analyst at Scope Ratings.
In the 21 April update of Scope’s external vulnerability and resilience rankings, Turkey’s 2020 score included it among the “Risky-3” countries most exposed to external shocks out of a 63-country sample, through factors such as a history of exchange rate volatility, significant foreign-exchange exposure and inadequate reserves.
“A risk of Turkey’s capital outflows re-escalating is a vital area to monitor after emerging market outflows intensified in March as the world economy faces a deeper recession this year than during the global financial crisis,” says Shen. “Turkey’s inherent external sector vulnerabilities, severe macro-economic imbalances, slowing growth and rising unemployment present challenges to economic resilience, especially if risk-off market sentiment were to transform into any broader emerging market crisis.”
In Scope’s 2020 external vulnerability and resilience rankings, Turkey ranked as the sixth least resilient economy of 63 in the advent of a balance of payment crisis.
The lira is 28% weaker against an August 2019 peak against the dollar (trading near record lows of around 7 per dollar at the time of writing). Any further depreciation represents a significant concern given 53% of central government debt is denominated in foreign currency. In addition, there is a significant private sector net FX debt position, which, while curtailed from February 2018 peaks of USD 223bn, totalled USD 175bn in January 2020. The weak lira puts companies saddled with FX debts in a challenging position.
Official reserves declined to USD 89bn as of 10 April compared with a 2013 peak of USD 135bn, while – netting out central bank FX liabilities to domestic banks – official net international reserves dipped to USD 26.3bn as of 10 April, from USD 41.1bn at end-2019. Adjusting for short-term FX swap liabilities that are being excluded from central bank FX liability data, true net international reserves are well below USD 26.3bn. Turkey’s official reserves cover a little above 70% of short-term external debt, from 114% as of 2016. Short-term external debt outstanding was USD 122.5bn in February, mostly representing Turkish bank and corporate external liabilities.
“Weakened reserves mean Turkey is less resilient if capital outflows were to pick up or if lira depreciation gets worse, triggering more aggressive exchange rate intervention by state-owned banks, using remaining reserves, to stabilise the exchange rate,” says Shen.
“Turkey could not sustain an extended balance of payment crisis with current reserves without calling upon external funding support,” says Shen. “However, any external support in such a severe scenario is more likely to derive from bilateral lenders such as Qatar or China than from the IMF – given the Turkish President’s aversion to IMF help.”
External risks are exacerbated by macro-economic imbalances. The policy one-week repo rate was cut an additional 100bps to 8.75% on Wednesday (incrementally from 24% as of July 2019) – implying a negative real policy rate of -2.8% against March inflation of 11.9% YoY. Given the economic contraction, additional rate cuts are possible if not probable. Accommodative monetary policy has amplified lira lending to the domestic economy, rising 19.1% YoY in March.
“Such macro-economic imbalances and longer-standing questions surrounding the quality of Turkey’s macro-economic management are sapping investor confidence especially given globally fragile investor sentiment,” says Shen. “Turkey had only recently begun to recover from the 2018 lira and debt crisis before the pandemic struck – meaning private and public sector balance sheets had not fully healed.”
Net foreign direct investment eased to 0.7% of GDP in the year to February 2020, from 1.4% in the year to February 2019. “Longer term, a key rating-relevant issue relates to the economy’s dependence on short-term types of capital inflows. Substituting hot money flows with foreign direct investment by enhancing the attractiveness of Turkey as a destination for long-term investment is key to engineering a more sustainable economy and easing a record of economic volatility,” says Shen. “This, alongside priorities such as implementing key structural reforms to lower structural inflation and fiscal deficits and manage a balanced current account through the cycle, could help reverse the trajectory of Turkey’s ratings to a more favourable one longer term.”
Analyst Contact: Dennis Shen: [email protected]
Analyst Contact: Alessandro Frazzi: [email protected]
Team Leader: Giacomo Barisone: [email protected]
Press: Matthew Curtin: [email protected]
Scope Ratings GmbH
m.m.f
Forumer storico
... continuano a uscire questi articoli, nel durante hanno tagliato i tassi, la valuta in evidente rafforzamento e i bond a seguire in mezzo ad una crisi profonda, salgono. Col dollaro che si rafforza contestualmente.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Turkey central bank may capitulate in lira battle, U.S. firm Jefferies says | Ahval
...qui abbiamo un altro may can, may be, if, probably, who know... Cosa scrivono a fare....
...qui abbiamo un altro may can, may be, if, probably, who know... Cosa scrivono a fare....
tommy271
Forumer storico
Il report è aggiornato.
Al momento alla Turchia non rimane altro che lasciare "andare" la Lira.
Ci si augura una rapida ripresa con i prezzi dell'oil affossati ancora per un pò.
Quanto agli "aiuti" dalla Cina, dubito.
Forse dal Qatar.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
... guardo i numeri tutto qui, li paragono con quelli di altri paesi, tenendo presente CDS, RATING, VALUTA e tutto quello che si legge sul ammontare delle riserve. E sono non cari i bond, assolutamente senza senso alcuno. Tutto qui...sulla rapida ripresa dai prezzi qui la crisi sembra sfiorare il paese... ripresa da che??
tommy271
Forumer storico
Anche a me i prezzi paiono un poco altini, specie sulla nostra 34.
Ma vedo che il book è piuttosto ben sostenuto, da molti giorni.
Mi sa che ci sono molte volpi qui intorno:
m.m.f
Forumer storico
...concordo cone te 110 x 100 qualcuno rimarrà col cerino in mano per un pò ...