RPT-POLL-Turkey's annual inflation to rebound to 47.3% after tax hikes, lira decline
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End-2023 forecast at 59.9%
By Ezgi Erkoyun and Ali Kucukgocmen
ISTANBUL, July 28 (Reuters) - Turkey's monthly inflation is seen at 9.1% in July due to various tax hikes and the lira's sharp depreciation, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, and the annual reading is expected to rebound sharply to 47.3% after declining for eight months.
Economists year-end forecasts were also revised sharply higher to 59.9%, as inflation is expected to continue climbing for the rest of the year.
Inflation climbed to a 24-year high of 85.5% in October last year, after a currency crisis due to the central bank's unorthodox rate cuts sent it soaring. It has declined steadily since then but is expected to rise for the remainder of the year.
A steep rise is expected in July after Ankara hiked several tax rates, including value-added tax (VAT), corporate tax and the special consumption tax (OTV) on fuel. The lira's cumulative decline, at 30% so far this year, also pushed prices higher in import-dependent Turkey.
The median estimate of 10 economists in a Reuters poll for monthly inflation stood at 9.1%, with forecasts ranging between 10.6% and 6.4%.
The median estimate for the annual reading in July stood at 47.3%, marking a sharp rise from 38.2% a month earlier.
Forecasts ranged between 43.5% and 49.4%.
The central bank on Thursday more than doubled its year-end forecast to 58%, in line with market expectations, in contrast previous years when the bank's forecasts frequently remained below those of economists.
The median estimate of nine economists for annual inflation at end-2023 stood at 59.9%, in a range of 49.5% and 69.0%.
The central bank has hiked its policy rate by 900 basis points to 17.5% at its two meetings under Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, but the pace of tightening has remained below market expectations.
Erkan said at a news conference on Thursday that inflation is expected to peak at around 60% in the second quarter of 2024, before beginning to decline.
Under former Governor Sahap Kavcioglu, bank had slashed its policy rate to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, based on Erdogan's economic programme. The cuts sparked a currency crisis and the lira weakened 44% in 2021 in addition to another 30% in 2022, stoking inflation.
Erdogan changed policies after election, which led to the rate hikes and helped the central bank build back its international reserves, which it had used in previous years to support the lira.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce July inflation data at 0700 GMT on August 3.
(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun and Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Daren Butler)
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