discipline
Forumer storico
della 115? con quale banca?
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 1 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione negusneg
- Data di Inizio
-
- Tags
- additional tier 1 bail in basilea 3 coco bonds crd iv genussscheine grandfathering hybrid bond loss absorption lower tier 2 make whole amount matusalem bond obbligazioni irredimibili obbligazioni perpetue obbligazioni subordinate perpetual bond preference shares restricted tier 1 tier 1 upper tier 2
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giannantonio3
Nuovo forumer
Ti devo ringraziare 1.000 volte x il consiglio datomi in giugno riguardo all'acquisto di b.intesa a 77 ora vale 100 (11.500 € +)
Mitico max
Sarebbe interessante vedere se sui siti tedeschi hanno qualche notizia in più su Depfa
o comunque cosa pensano che succederà
giannantonio3
Nuovo forumer
Zorba
Bos 4 Mod
Trovato su www.bondboard.de
Autor: koelner
Datum: 09.10.2009 14:55:39
nachfolgend eine Meinung von der RBS zu der Meldung der EC von vorgestern:
EU on sub debt / Lloyds / ING / WestLB / Westpac / Data Watch
Any thought of fun and games last night was torpedoed by the Brussels mob. Elsewhere, Alcoa’s after market barometer earnings were pretty good and that gave us some support after a flaccid US session in both cash and index. Our US traders are notably commenting that the market continues to feel quite shallow and that will lead to some vola as we head into earnings season next week and our Oz trader is similarly noting some profit-taking which isn’t so good for cash particularly as the street out there is notably longer inventory than other hubs. Asian EM cash and CDS was robust overnight.
** EU on sub debt: released a brief statement (verbatim at the bottom). It's not that much new but it is them again taking an even more aggressive stance by explicitly including T2 in the discussions. Essentially they say that cpn payments, buybacks and calls of T1 and T2 reduce reg cap (note a shift in focus here away from core capital) and they don't like that. They do say that if it looks like by enforcing non calls/non payments that it would damage refinancing capacity then they will look on a case by case basis, so that gives plenty of scope for idiosyncratic treatment still.
Takeaways:
1) Cumulative nature of deferred cpns doesn't matter anymore. Even if the cpn rolls up it will now still be deferred where possible, cue increased deferral risk in UT2.
2) Buybacks at par are ruled out, even redemption at par at the call date; this will include LT2. But no mention of whether sub-par exchanges into either a pari-ranking instrument or equity are excluded, as this explicitly INCREASES reg cap.
3) If a T1 is a "must pay" it will remain a must pay I reckon. The EC, so far, has not taken primacy over contract law. This could have a knock on to UT2/LT2 as there can be instances where paying on a junior security obliges payment.
4) Some dollar LT2 is deferrable. This could be forced to defer but somehow I doubt it as the euro and sterling LT2 is not deferrable and that could effect refinancing capacity by creating an unlevel playing field. Even if LT2 is forced to defer it is cumulative, like the buy-on-dip trade there.
5) No callable bond will be allowed to be called. There are no "must calls".
Who does this affect? Well, your truly, Lloyds (possibly, see below), ING, Dexia, Fortis, ABN, most Germans and the Irish. Note the statement mentions restructuring plans only, not viability plans so Aegon and SNS could be off the hook.
** Lloyds: conflicting stories emerged overnight, first up was Sky news reporting that Lloyds considering a £25bn rights issue/capital raise, later other newspapers have suggested £15bn (though the FSA has already intimated a £24bn capital raise to beat its stress tests). So £25bn would be enough to keep it out of the APS though the residual asset side of the balance sheet would be weaker, our equity analyst believes £20bn is the breakeven level to keep it out of APS. If it stays completely out of the APS then the EC would likely take an easier line on burden-sharing, though if as the FT suggests the govt would retain a 43% stake by taking its pro rata share of a rights issue then support would still be extant. A £25bn cash call is a massive number and even if it was £15bn it would be positive for the Lloyds hybrids story, though Widows and Clerical Med would almost certainly be sold under such a plan (to Resolution?) so caution there. Avoid going overboard on the upside though as it might include pref for equity swap at a discount though the FT suggests that new prefs could be part of the capital raise which would scotch that. Attached is Ian Smillie’s most excellent piece on Lloyds, I urge you to peruse.
** ING: after the EC statement last night ING came out and said that they had not asked the EC’s permission (and I heard anecdotally that permission may not even have been sought from the lcal regulator) to call the $ LT2 earlier this week. An ING spokesman last night said however that the decision was irreversible but I strongly believe that this will be the last time that ING will be able to redeem a callable bank at the call date.
** WestLB: has received approval for temporary additional aid by EC yesterday. This aid is basically EUR6.4bn g’tee increase on asset portfolio which is in place so it can get its bad bank up and running. Approval obtained as the additional aid is necessary step towards getting WestLB back to viability. A restructuring plan will also be resubmitted and this will include huge balance sheet derisking and result in a sale of WestLB by end 2011. All this extra risk shielding inevitably means coupons will be switched off much like other Landesbanks and certainly on the back of last night’s EC release.
** Westpac: lost a tax ruling in NZ related to some structured finance transactions and is facing max NZD918m in charges, about AUD750m. Westpac will need to set provisions against this and is far from great news, but should be able to absorb it albeit with some discomfort. Moody’s affirmed the ratings, saying that max hit to Tier 1 would be 25bps (last reported 8.4%). This can be replenished with retained earnings without too much problem.
Autor: koelner
Datum: 09.10.2009 14:55:39
nachfolgend eine Meinung von der RBS zu der Meldung der EC von vorgestern:
EU on sub debt / Lloyds / ING / WestLB / Westpac / Data Watch
Any thought of fun and games last night was torpedoed by the Brussels mob. Elsewhere, Alcoa’s after market barometer earnings were pretty good and that gave us some support after a flaccid US session in both cash and index. Our US traders are notably commenting that the market continues to feel quite shallow and that will lead to some vola as we head into earnings season next week and our Oz trader is similarly noting some profit-taking which isn’t so good for cash particularly as the street out there is notably longer inventory than other hubs. Asian EM cash and CDS was robust overnight.
** EU on sub debt: released a brief statement (verbatim at the bottom). It's not that much new but it is them again taking an even more aggressive stance by explicitly including T2 in the discussions. Essentially they say that cpn payments, buybacks and calls of T1 and T2 reduce reg cap (note a shift in focus here away from core capital) and they don't like that. They do say that if it looks like by enforcing non calls/non payments that it would damage refinancing capacity then they will look on a case by case basis, so that gives plenty of scope for idiosyncratic treatment still.
Takeaways:
1) Cumulative nature of deferred cpns doesn't matter anymore. Even if the cpn rolls up it will now still be deferred where possible, cue increased deferral risk in UT2.
2) Buybacks at par are ruled out, even redemption at par at the call date; this will include LT2. But no mention of whether sub-par exchanges into either a pari-ranking instrument or equity are excluded, as this explicitly INCREASES reg cap.
3) If a T1 is a "must pay" it will remain a must pay I reckon. The EC, so far, has not taken primacy over contract law. This could have a knock on to UT2/LT2 as there can be instances where paying on a junior security obliges payment.
4) Some dollar LT2 is deferrable. This could be forced to defer but somehow I doubt it as the euro and sterling LT2 is not deferrable and that could effect refinancing capacity by creating an unlevel playing field. Even if LT2 is forced to defer it is cumulative, like the buy-on-dip trade there.
5) No callable bond will be allowed to be called. There are no "must calls".
Who does this affect? Well, your truly, Lloyds (possibly, see below), ING, Dexia, Fortis, ABN, most Germans and the Irish. Note the statement mentions restructuring plans only, not viability plans so Aegon and SNS could be off the hook.
** Lloyds: conflicting stories emerged overnight, first up was Sky news reporting that Lloyds considering a £25bn rights issue/capital raise, later other newspapers have suggested £15bn (though the FSA has already intimated a £24bn capital raise to beat its stress tests). So £25bn would be enough to keep it out of the APS though the residual asset side of the balance sheet would be weaker, our equity analyst believes £20bn is the breakeven level to keep it out of APS. If it stays completely out of the APS then the EC would likely take an easier line on burden-sharing, though if as the FT suggests the govt would retain a 43% stake by taking its pro rata share of a rights issue then support would still be extant. A £25bn cash call is a massive number and even if it was £15bn it would be positive for the Lloyds hybrids story, though Widows and Clerical Med would almost certainly be sold under such a plan (to Resolution?) so caution there. Avoid going overboard on the upside though as it might include pref for equity swap at a discount though the FT suggests that new prefs could be part of the capital raise which would scotch that. Attached is Ian Smillie’s most excellent piece on Lloyds, I urge you to peruse.
** ING: after the EC statement last night ING came out and said that they had not asked the EC’s permission (and I heard anecdotally that permission may not even have been sought from the lcal regulator) to call the $ LT2 earlier this week. An ING spokesman last night said however that the decision was irreversible but I strongly believe that this will be the last time that ING will be able to redeem a callable bank at the call date.
** WestLB: has received approval for temporary additional aid by EC yesterday. This aid is basically EUR6.4bn g’tee increase on asset portfolio which is in place so it can get its bad bank up and running. Approval obtained as the additional aid is necessary step towards getting WestLB back to viability. A restructuring plan will also be resubmitted and this will include huge balance sheet derisking and result in a sale of WestLB by end 2011. All this extra risk shielding inevitably means coupons will be switched off much like other Landesbanks and certainly on the back of last night’s EC release.
** Westpac: lost a tax ruling in NZ related to some structured finance transactions and is facing max NZD918m in charges, about AUD750m. Westpac will need to set provisions against this and is far from great news, but should be able to absorb it albeit with some discomfort. Moody’s affirmed the ratings, saying that max hit to Tier 1 would be 25bps (last reported 8.4%). This can be replenished with retained earnings without too much problem.
negusneg
New Member
Ti devo ringraziare 1.000 volte x il consiglio datomi in giugno riguardo all'acquisto di b.intesa a 77 ora vale 100 (11.500 € +)
Spero che allora devolverai qualcosa a favore del mio progetto (The Negus Foundation ©): "Adotta un promotore (o un assicuratore) [o tutti e due]"
Oppure, se proprio vuoi
, puoi cavartela frequentando il 3D "Bazze e bidoni", e contribuire alla causa svelando i "costi impliciti" dei vari prodotti.Scegli tu...
P.S. Per le donazioni personali, sto ancora cercando una banca etiope a costo zero.
P.P.S. NO farfalline, NO ciondoli d'oro o bigiotteria all'ingrosso. Se vieni al meeting al massimo posso accettare doni in natura di modesto valore (vino, cioccolata, etc.
)
negusneg
New Member
Mooooolto interessante varoon, domani me lo studio per bene
. Sembra che confermi quanto da tempo diciamo qui.Chi l'ha scritto?
Ora devo scappare, è l'ora delle coccole alle mie gatte...
nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
Zorba
Bos 4 Mod
Mooooolto interessante varoon, domani me lo studio per bene
Chi l'ha scritto?
Ora devo scappare, è l'ora delle coccole alle mie gatte...
Era su bondboard.de, sezione Board, thread "Tier 1 Anleihen"
bondboard.de
Sembra essere un'analisi di RBS (se capisco bene il tedesco), ma non ci giurerei.... Sto provando a leggere il 3d con il traduttore di google: è spassosissimo. Solo per dirne una, "tier 1" viene tradotto con "un animale"
Saltano fuori frasi del tipo: "Entrambi gli animali sono ugualmente dotati"
quantotanto
Forumer attivo
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