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PREVIEW Raiffeisen 2Q: Profit Seen Up; Russia, Hungary, AQR Eyed
Raiffeisen Bank International 2Q results due tomorrow at ~7:30am in Vienna as shares drop 22%
this qtr on Russia and eastern European bad debt worries.
JPMorgan cut to Neutral this week (PT EU24) on lower Russian
profits, losses in Ukraine, Hungary; Citi (Buy/EU26.6) says to
focus on Russia/Ukraine comments
ESTIMATES:
* 2Q net income EU136m (ranging from EU102m-EU177m, 17 ests.,
according to average in survey by co. published on its
website) vs EU120m Y/y
* NOTE: Co. flagged EU67m provision on Hungary due to loan
fee refund law, said FY impact could reach EU160m; also
has EU10m negative effect on revaluation of own
liabilities
* 2Q pretax profit EU195m (EU137m-EU247m) vs EU216m Y/y
* 2Q NII EU956m (EU925m-EU987m) vs EU972m Y/y
* 2Q loan-loss provisions EU329m (EU295m-EU381m) vs EU249m Y/y
* 2Q fee & commission income EU401m (EU388m-EU413m) vs EU411m
* 2Q trading income EU39m (EU10m-EU81m) vs EU60m Y/y
* 2Q costs EU791m (EU760m-EU823m) vs EU829m Y/y
WHAT TO WATCH:
* Russia/Ukraine: Co. owns 3rd biggest foreign bank in Russia,
which generated 74% of group pretax profit last year;
Ukraine unit turned to first quarterly loss in more than a
year in 1Q
* Hungary: Co. sees FY charge on loan refunds tending to
EU160m, co. said Aug. 12
* Bad debt: Co. raised forecast for loan-loss provisions in
1Q, now expects them to rise as much as 22% to EU1.4b,
driven by Russia, Ukraine, Hungary
* Capital: Co. repaid EU1.75b state aid June 6 after raising
EU2.8b in fresh funds in a share sale this year
* Costs: Co. raised cost-cutting target to EU600m, CEO Karl
Sevelda said
* 2014 Outlook: Co. plans to cut costs Y/y; loan losses rising
to EU1.3b-EU1.4b, unless there is an extra hit due to AQR,
Russia, Ukraine; sees loan book stagnating