Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
cris71
Forumer storico
ho il prospetto di questo bond subordinato , ma ho problemi a caricarlo... vedrò di provare più tardi
a questo link lo si può trovare comunque
http://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topi...ktionen/page__st__1400__p__858927#entry858927
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NoWay
It's time to play the game
Xetra è "leggermente" impreciso...
Ecco il prospetto...
file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/CFIT000000000058703203.pdf
Ultima modifica:
cris71
Forumer storico
Xetra è "leggermente" impreciso...
Ecco il prospetto...
file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/CFIT000000000058703203.pdf
sempre di klm la sorella CH0006125253 2.125
NoWay
It's time to play the game
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Abstract: The pressure for the ECB to do sovereign QE is clearly rising. Given Draghifs sense of urgency, the January meeting is a particular focus as it comes just after the ECJfs Advocate General will publish his opinion on the legality of sovereign asset purchases and as signs of growth picking up may still be somewhat tentative. We still do not have sovereign QE in our forecast but we recognize that it is a close call and will be watching Thursdayfs meeting for any signs that Draghi is setting the stage for a January move.
The latest episode of the soap opera around QE
In our view, it is unclear what is really going on at the ECB at present. Ahead of the November meeting, a press report that the ECB may consider purchases of corporate bonds as early as December, was quickly followed by another report of significant discontent with Draghifs management style and his balance sheet target. This report also suggested that 7-10 governors remain opposed to sovereign QE. But, just a couple of days later at the November meeting, Draghi appeared to have reasserted his leadership, with all governors signing off on the balance sheet target, the commitment to doing more (if needed) and on tasking internal committees with studying all further policy options (including sovereign QE).
At the time, we thought that Draghi may have convinced those who oppose sovereign QE that they only way to avoid it is to make the existing measures work (i.e., low cost loans to banks and non-sovereign asset purchases). But, that is not the impression given by subsequent commentary. First, there is little indication that the ECB is considering any enhancements to the current policy measures. And, second, positions appear to have hardened in the sovereign QE debate from both sides. Draghi has run ahead again by emphasizing the urgency of doing more and the effectiveness of sovereign QE, while Constancio has added to this by emphasizing legality and dismissing the risk of moral hazard. In contrast, Weidmann, Mersch and Laeutenschlaeger have dug in, questioning the effectiveness of sovereign QE, emphasizing the risk of moral hazard, questioning legality and arguing for patience (to let the existing measures work). While positions on sovereign QE appear to have polarised, many of the other governors have said relatively little in recent weeks.
What to look for on Thursday
As new policy measures are unlikely to be announced on Thursday, the focus will be on the forward-looking signal. Three things are crucial to watch. First, the general tone and, in particular, the level of dissatisfaction with the macro outlook. Second, how patient the ECB is in giving the existing measures time to work. Third, how the thinking on policy options is evolving, in particular whether sovereign QE is seen as the only viable option or whether enhancements to the existing measures are also still being considered.
Draghifs statement that short-term measures of inflation expectations are gexcessively lowh creates the impression of urgency. However, Constancio and Coeure (who are sympathetic to Draghifs views) have indicated a willingness to wait until the first quarter with any new decisions. The December TLTRO take-up will be important, but there is an argument for also waiting for the first of the additional TLTROs in March, by which time it will also be clearer how the covered bond and ABS purchases are progressing (and how much of an issuance response they are triggering). The ECB is likely to signal dissatisfaction with the macro outlook, even if views may still differ on how anchored inflation expectations are and whether to ignore the first-round effect from the latest fall in oil prices. Much harder to gauge is what signal will be sent about policy options and about the level of patience with the existing measures.
These issues matter because the chances of sovereign QE are probably highest at the January meeting. By then the ECJfs Advocate General will have published his opinion on the legality of government bond purchases and the data on growth will not yet have picked up strongly. Later on, a clearer pickup in growth may complicate the QE debate once again, even if headline inflation is still hovering close to zero. Hence, if the ECB signals that TLTRO enhancements and non-sovereign asset purchases remain on the table, and that it is minded to wait until the spring before taking new steps, then the chances of sovereign QE would be dampened somewhat in our view. For now our forecast remains unchanged. We expect the ECB to enhance the existing measures during 1Q15 as a way of buying time. And this will prevent sovereign QE because growth will pick up sufficiently in the meantime.
The new ECB staff forecasts
Even though, the staff forecasts will not reflect the latest fall in oil prices (as the cut-off date for all technical assumptions was mid-November), they will still provide an important backdrop of the growth/inflation debate. The new technical assumptions will be growth friendly. Even through mid-November, oil prices were 20% lower than assumed in September, the euro is weaker against the dollar (1.25 vs 1.34), forward money market rates are 20bp lower and long-term bond yields are 30bp lower. But, while all of this would boost growth in 2015 and 2016, the staff is likely to project forward a sense of past disappointment at least for a while. Hence, we expect next yearfs forecast to be cut to 1.2%oya and that for 2016 to 1.8%oya (mainly due to negative carry-over effects from 2015, which will offset any lifting of the quarterly trajectory during 2016).
The delayed recovery assumed for 2014/15 and a lower starting point this year will likely prompt the staff to edge down their core inflation forecast for 2016 by one tenth to 1.4%oya. But, the profile will continue to show a gradual increase over time, reaching 1.5%oya by end-2016. This will be masked by the forward curve for oil prices, which now shows an upward slope and which will add one tenth to headline inflation compared to the September projection. Hence, headline inflation will still be projected at 1.4%oya for 2016. This will assume anchored inflation expectations however, which will be debated by the Governing Council in the context latest fall in oil prices and a 2015 projection that is already very low.
The latest episode of the soap opera around QE
In our view, it is unclear what is really going on at the ECB at present. Ahead of the November meeting, a press report that the ECB may consider purchases of corporate bonds as early as December, was quickly followed by another report of significant discontent with Draghifs management style and his balance sheet target. This report also suggested that 7-10 governors remain opposed to sovereign QE. But, just a couple of days later at the November meeting, Draghi appeared to have reasserted his leadership, with all governors signing off on the balance sheet target, the commitment to doing more (if needed) and on tasking internal committees with studying all further policy options (including sovereign QE).
At the time, we thought that Draghi may have convinced those who oppose sovereign QE that they only way to avoid it is to make the existing measures work (i.e., low cost loans to banks and non-sovereign asset purchases). But, that is not the impression given by subsequent commentary. First, there is little indication that the ECB is considering any enhancements to the current policy measures. And, second, positions appear to have hardened in the sovereign QE debate from both sides. Draghi has run ahead again by emphasizing the urgency of doing more and the effectiveness of sovereign QE, while Constancio has added to this by emphasizing legality and dismissing the risk of moral hazard. In contrast, Weidmann, Mersch and Laeutenschlaeger have dug in, questioning the effectiveness of sovereign QE, emphasizing the risk of moral hazard, questioning legality and arguing for patience (to let the existing measures work). While positions on sovereign QE appear to have polarised, many of the other governors have said relatively little in recent weeks.
What to look for on Thursday
As new policy measures are unlikely to be announced on Thursday, the focus will be on the forward-looking signal. Three things are crucial to watch. First, the general tone and, in particular, the level of dissatisfaction with the macro outlook. Second, how patient the ECB is in giving the existing measures time to work. Third, how the thinking on policy options is evolving, in particular whether sovereign QE is seen as the only viable option or whether enhancements to the existing measures are also still being considered.
Draghifs statement that short-term measures of inflation expectations are gexcessively lowh creates the impression of urgency. However, Constancio and Coeure (who are sympathetic to Draghifs views) have indicated a willingness to wait until the first quarter with any new decisions. The December TLTRO take-up will be important, but there is an argument for also waiting for the first of the additional TLTROs in March, by which time it will also be clearer how the covered bond and ABS purchases are progressing (and how much of an issuance response they are triggering). The ECB is likely to signal dissatisfaction with the macro outlook, even if views may still differ on how anchored inflation expectations are and whether to ignore the first-round effect from the latest fall in oil prices. Much harder to gauge is what signal will be sent about policy options and about the level of patience with the existing measures.
These issues matter because the chances of sovereign QE are probably highest at the January meeting. By then the ECJfs Advocate General will have published his opinion on the legality of government bond purchases and the data on growth will not yet have picked up strongly. Later on, a clearer pickup in growth may complicate the QE debate once again, even if headline inflation is still hovering close to zero. Hence, if the ECB signals that TLTRO enhancements and non-sovereign asset purchases remain on the table, and that it is minded to wait until the spring before taking new steps, then the chances of sovereign QE would be dampened somewhat in our view. For now our forecast remains unchanged. We expect the ECB to enhance the existing measures during 1Q15 as a way of buying time. And this will prevent sovereign QE because growth will pick up sufficiently in the meantime.
The new ECB staff forecasts
Even though, the staff forecasts will not reflect the latest fall in oil prices (as the cut-off date for all technical assumptions was mid-November), they will still provide an important backdrop of the growth/inflation debate. The new technical assumptions will be growth friendly. Even through mid-November, oil prices were 20% lower than assumed in September, the euro is weaker against the dollar (1.25 vs 1.34), forward money market rates are 20bp lower and long-term bond yields are 30bp lower. But, while all of this would boost growth in 2015 and 2016, the staff is likely to project forward a sense of past disappointment at least for a while. Hence, we expect next yearfs forecast to be cut to 1.2%oya and that for 2016 to 1.8%oya (mainly due to negative carry-over effects from 2015, which will offset any lifting of the quarterly trajectory during 2016).
The delayed recovery assumed for 2014/15 and a lower starting point this year will likely prompt the staff to edge down their core inflation forecast for 2016 by one tenth to 1.4%oya. But, the profile will continue to show a gradual increase over time, reaching 1.5%oya by end-2016. This will be masked by the forward curve for oil prices, which now shows an upward slope and which will add one tenth to headline inflation compared to the September projection. Hence, headline inflation will still be projected at 1.4%oya for 2016. This will assume anchored inflation expectations however, which will be debated by the Governing Council in the context latest fall in oil prices and a 2015 projection that is already very low.
vbrm
Forumer attivo
Al punto 6.3 c'è una clausola per la quale "no payment will be made outside of Switzerland" .... può essere acquistato solo se si è domiciliati in Svizzera ?
cris71
Forumer storico
ho letto... tuttavia è quotato anche su Frankfurt
io non sono il più indicato a fornire una risposta corretta
azetaelle
investitore(s)qualificato
DB mi dice acquistabile OTC a 99.50
vbrm
Forumer attivo
Acquistato un lotto anch'io a 96, che peraltro mi sembra la quotazione di borsa a Zurigo e Francoforte ...
Comunque non semnbrano esserci vincoli alla engoziazione.
Una caratteristica del titolo è che è subordinato ma non prevede nessuna clausola di salto delle cedole o taglio del nominale. Semplicemente in caso di default i creditopri senior vengono prima.
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