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Raiffeisen Shares, Bonds Offer Upside After Overdone Selloff: SG
Raiffeisen Bank International shares are at
a distressed valuation, which is excessive, while its bonds
offer “significant upside” from current levels, SocGen
analysts write in client note.
* Remain buyers of RBI shares with PT of EU16.20 (cut from
EU21.50 on Jan. 6)
* RBI senior bond spreads have a fair value inside Z+120bps,
suggesting 50bps of upside
* Fair value ests. imply 600bps of upside in bank’s Tier 2
bonds and 200bps in senior CDS
* While RBI profits will reach quite a low level in 2015,
should be manageable and solvency will remain comfortable
* Yday’s recovery in bond and equity prices is justified after
CFO confirmed CET1 ratio of 10% and announced a RWA
reduction plan
* NOTE: RBI 5Y Senior CDS tightened 27bps yday while its
shares rose 11.6%, Bloomberg data show; see equity-credit
comparison graph here
Raiffeisen Bank International shares are at
a distressed valuation, which is excessive, while its bonds
offer “significant upside” from current levels, SocGen
analysts write in client note.
* Remain buyers of RBI shares with PT of EU16.20 (cut from
EU21.50 on Jan. 6)
* RBI senior bond spreads have a fair value inside Z+120bps,
suggesting 50bps of upside
* Fair value ests. imply 600bps of upside in bank’s Tier 2
bonds and 200bps in senior CDS
* While RBI profits will reach quite a low level in 2015,
should be manageable and solvency will remain comfortable
* Yday’s recovery in bond and equity prices is justified after
CFO confirmed CET1 ratio of 10% and announced a RWA
reduction plan
* NOTE: RBI 5Y Senior CDS tightened 27bps yday while its
shares rose 11.6%, Bloomberg data show; see equity-credit
comparison graph here