Obbligazioni altre valute UNGHERIA e Obbligazioni in Fiorini (HUF)
- Creatore Discussione Gaudente
- Data di Inizio
c0ltran3
Forumer attivo
Hungary ‘Isn’t Greece,’ Moody’s Says Following Tumble in Bonds
By Tal Barak Harif and Piotr Skolimowski
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary has “a good track record” managing fiscal crises and will take the steps needed even after a government official said the country may be at risk of defaulting, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
“Hungary isn’t the next Greece,” Kristin Lindow, a senior vice president with the ratings company, said in a telephone interview yesterday from London. “Hungary has a good track record of doing what it needs to do when in trouble.”
Hungarian bonds tumbled yesterday, pushing up borrowing costs by the most since October 2008, and the forint and stocks plunged after Peter Szijjarto, spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, said it’s not “an exaggeration at all” to speculate that the nation may be unable to pay its debt.
The comments sparked concern that Europe’s debt crisis is spreading after credit downgrades of Greece, Portugal and Spain. The European Union pledged almost $1 trillion to the bloc’s weakest economies last month after Greece’s widening budget deficit threatened to undermine confidence in the euro.
“It’s clear that the economy is in a very grave situation,” Szijjarto said at a press conference in Budapest yesterday. “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration at all” to talk about a default, he said.
Orban took office May 29 after winning elections by pledging to cut taxes and stimulate the economy. He failed last week to get EU approval for looser fiscal policy.
‘Ill Considered’ Comments
The extra yield investors demand to own Hungary’s debt over U.S. Treasuries rose 157 basis points, or 1.57 percentage point, to 476, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index. The BUX Index of equities tumbled 3.3 percent, while the forint fell 2.3 percent to 288.73 per euro, the weakest level since June 2009.
“The politician was over-speaking, which is typical for a new government, but it was ill considered,” Lindow said. Moody’s lowered Hungary’s debt rating to Baa1, the third lowest investment grade, from A3 in March 2009 and has a negative outlook.
Hungary, the first EU nation to receive an international bailout during the credit crisis, has the equivalent of $26.9 billion of debt coming due this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The government’s budget deficit could grow to as high as 7.5 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with a 3.8 percent target set with the International Monetary Fund by the previous government, Mihaly Varga, Orban’s chief of staff, told M1 television on May 30.
Tax Reductions
Orban is vowing to end austerity and cut taxes to help accelerate economic growth after the worst recession in 18 years. Former Hungarian Finance Minister Peter Oszko said yesterday the country is “in no way near default.”
“While the outlook for that country remains poor, it does not quite have the potential to roil markets as much as Greece or the other peripheral euro zone members,” Win Thin, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said yesterday in a report. “The Hungary story is bad, but the overall impact is likely to be limited.”
Hungary, which received a 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) loan from the IMF, the EU and the World Bank in October 2008 to help avert a default, hasn’t drawn any funds from its standby program under the fourth and fifth previews, and the new government has raised the possibility of renegotiating this year’s deficit target to 5 to 6 percent of GDP, according to Thin.
Manageable Situation
“The new government is trying to say the picture is much uglier and we’re going to work to clean the house,” Luis Costa, an emerging market strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said yesterday in a phone interview. The comments “are probably more populist than anything else,” he said. “When it comes to the funding requirements, the situation in 2010 is still very manageable.”
Credit-default swaps on Hungarian government bonds rose to 410 basis points from yesterday’s close of 308, according to CMA DataVision prices. An increase signals deterioration in investor perceptions of credit quality.
“We still have a negative outlook because we don’t know when implementation will happen of the structural changes,” Moody’s Lindow said.
The BUX index briefly extended its drop from this year’s high to more than 20 percent yesterday before paring it loss.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of shares lost 1.2 percent yesterday, while currencies from Poland to Romania and Russia weakened against the dollar. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 3.4 percent as a report showing slower-than-estimated American job growth worsened losses sparked by concern over Hungary’s debt.
Reducing Expenses
Hungary is in its fifth year of cost cutting and the government reduced the deficit to 4 percent of GDP last year from 9.3 percent in 2006, the EU’s widest at the time.
The country’s debt level may reach 79 percent of GDP this year, on par with Germany and making it the most indebted eastern EU member, according to the European Commission. The debt level is less than the 125 percent of GDP for Greece, 118 percent for Italy, and 86 percent for Portugal.
A fact-finding panel will probably present preliminary figures on the state of the economy this weekend, Szijjarto said. The government will publish an action plan within 72 hours after the committee reports its findings, he said.
“The moment of truth has already arrived in Greece and it has yet to come to Hungary,” Szijjarto said. “The government is prepared to avoid the road that Greece has been down; in other words, we won’t hesitate to act after the truth becomes known.”
Szijjarto’s comments “are extremely confusing and more market panic should be expected,” Elisabeth Andreew, chief foreign-currency strategist at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen, wrote in an e-mailed comment. “Beware of more spill-over effects on other currencies and asset classes.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Tal Barak Harif in New York at [email protected]; Piotr Skolimowski in Warsaw at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 4, 2010 18:08 EDT
By Tal Barak Harif and Piotr Skolimowski
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary has “a good track record” managing fiscal crises and will take the steps needed even after a government official said the country may be at risk of defaulting, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
“Hungary isn’t the next Greece,” Kristin Lindow, a senior vice president with the ratings company, said in a telephone interview yesterday from London. “Hungary has a good track record of doing what it needs to do when in trouble.”
Hungarian bonds tumbled yesterday, pushing up borrowing costs by the most since October 2008, and the forint and stocks plunged after Peter Szijjarto, spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, said it’s not “an exaggeration at all” to speculate that the nation may be unable to pay its debt.
The comments sparked concern that Europe’s debt crisis is spreading after credit downgrades of Greece, Portugal and Spain. The European Union pledged almost $1 trillion to the bloc’s weakest economies last month after Greece’s widening budget deficit threatened to undermine confidence in the euro.
“It’s clear that the economy is in a very grave situation,” Szijjarto said at a press conference in Budapest yesterday. “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration at all” to talk about a default, he said.
Orban took office May 29 after winning elections by pledging to cut taxes and stimulate the economy. He failed last week to get EU approval for looser fiscal policy.
‘Ill Considered’ Comments
The extra yield investors demand to own Hungary’s debt over U.S. Treasuries rose 157 basis points, or 1.57 percentage point, to 476, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index. The BUX Index of equities tumbled 3.3 percent, while the forint fell 2.3 percent to 288.73 per euro, the weakest level since June 2009.
“The politician was over-speaking, which is typical for a new government, but it was ill considered,” Lindow said. Moody’s lowered Hungary’s debt rating to Baa1, the third lowest investment grade, from A3 in March 2009 and has a negative outlook.
Hungary, the first EU nation to receive an international bailout during the credit crisis, has the equivalent of $26.9 billion of debt coming due this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The government’s budget deficit could grow to as high as 7.5 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with a 3.8 percent target set with the International Monetary Fund by the previous government, Mihaly Varga, Orban’s chief of staff, told M1 television on May 30.
Tax Reductions
Orban is vowing to end austerity and cut taxes to help accelerate economic growth after the worst recession in 18 years. Former Hungarian Finance Minister Peter Oszko said yesterday the country is “in no way near default.”
“While the outlook for that country remains poor, it does not quite have the potential to roil markets as much as Greece or the other peripheral euro zone members,” Win Thin, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said yesterday in a report. “The Hungary story is bad, but the overall impact is likely to be limited.”
Hungary, which received a 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) loan from the IMF, the EU and the World Bank in October 2008 to help avert a default, hasn’t drawn any funds from its standby program under the fourth and fifth previews, and the new government has raised the possibility of renegotiating this year’s deficit target to 5 to 6 percent of GDP, according to Thin.
Manageable Situation
“The new government is trying to say the picture is much uglier and we’re going to work to clean the house,” Luis Costa, an emerging market strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said yesterday in a phone interview. The comments “are probably more populist than anything else,” he said. “When it comes to the funding requirements, the situation in 2010 is still very manageable.”
Credit-default swaps on Hungarian government bonds rose to 410 basis points from yesterday’s close of 308, according to CMA DataVision prices. An increase signals deterioration in investor perceptions of credit quality.
“We still have a negative outlook because we don’t know when implementation will happen of the structural changes,” Moody’s Lindow said.
The BUX index briefly extended its drop from this year’s high to more than 20 percent yesterday before paring it loss.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of shares lost 1.2 percent yesterday, while currencies from Poland to Romania and Russia weakened against the dollar. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 3.4 percent as a report showing slower-than-estimated American job growth worsened losses sparked by concern over Hungary’s debt.
Reducing Expenses
Hungary is in its fifth year of cost cutting and the government reduced the deficit to 4 percent of GDP last year from 9.3 percent in 2006, the EU’s widest at the time.
The country’s debt level may reach 79 percent of GDP this year, on par with Germany and making it the most indebted eastern EU member, according to the European Commission. The debt level is less than the 125 percent of GDP for Greece, 118 percent for Italy, and 86 percent for Portugal.
A fact-finding panel will probably present preliminary figures on the state of the economy this weekend, Szijjarto said. The government will publish an action plan within 72 hours after the committee reports its findings, he said.
“The moment of truth has already arrived in Greece and it has yet to come to Hungary,” Szijjarto said. “The government is prepared to avoid the road that Greece has been down; in other words, we won’t hesitate to act after the truth becomes known.”
Szijjarto’s comments “are extremely confusing and more market panic should be expected,” Elisabeth Andreew, chief foreign-currency strategist at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen, wrote in an e-mailed comment. “Beware of more spill-over effects on other currencies and asset classes.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Tal Barak Harif in New York at [email protected]; Piotr Skolimowski in Warsaw at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 4, 2010 18:08 EDT
c0ltran3
Forumer attivo
Worries over Hungary drive forint to one-year low
By Neil Buckley, East Europe editor
Published: June 4 2010 15:19 | Last updated: June 4 2010 20:03
Fears escalated on Friday that Europe’s debt problems were spreading beyond the eurozone after Hungarian officials warned for a second day that the country was at risk of a Greek-style crisis.
Hungary’s forint fell to a one-year low, the cost of insuring its debt spiked sharply, and equities fell across central Europe after a spokesman for the new prime minister, Viktor Orban, said the economy was in a “grave” situation and a default was possible.
His comments came a day after a vice-president of the newly elected Fidesz party suggested public finances were in a worse shape than the government had expected.
But Hungary’s central bank, previous government and many analysts immediately insisted the warnings were exaggerated and that the country’s finances were much sounder than those of Greece.
The latest comments are likely to increase suspicions of the Fidesz administration among investors. Markets initially welcomed the centre-right party’s overwhelming election victory in April, but have been unsettled after the government clashed repeatedly with the central bank and called for foreign-currency loans to be converted into forints.
“The new government needs to think a bit more clearly about communication with the market,” said Tim Ash, global head of emerging market research at Royal Bank of Scotland. “You simply cannot talk like this in these markets.”
The government has accused the former administration of manipulating figures and lying about the country’s true economic health. It is expected this weekend to unveil findings from a fact-finding committee on the state of the economy, followed by an economic action plan.
Peter Szijjarto, Mr Orban’s spokesman, said on Friday the economy was in a “grave situation”. He added it was “not an exaggeration at all” to talk about a default.
Mr Szijjarto echoed Thursday’s comments from Lajos Kosa, a Fidesz vice-chairman, that the country had a slim chance of avoiding “the Greek situation”.
According to official figures, Hungary’s debt last year was 78 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest among the EU’s newest members. But it was not far above the 74 per cent European Union average, and well below Greece’s 115 per cent.
Budapest has not yet drawn down all of a €20bn ($24bn, £16.5bn) support package agreed with the International Monetary Fund and the EU in 2008.
Peter Oszko, finance minister in the previous Socialist-backed technocratic government, said Fidesz had made exaggerated economic promises during the election campaign. It was now having to prepare Hungarians for further austerity measures beyond those imposed by the former government as part of the IMF-led programme.
“They need to explain why they can’t deliver an economic miracle,” he said. “But this is a very expensive and very risky way of doing it, because it could result in a collapse which they can’t stop later.
“The reports we have published [on public finances] are right. They were supported by international institutions.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
By Neil Buckley, East Europe editor
Published: June 4 2010 15:19 | Last updated: June 4 2010 20:03
Fears escalated on Friday that Europe’s debt problems were spreading beyond the eurozone after Hungarian officials warned for a second day that the country was at risk of a Greek-style crisis.
Hungary’s forint fell to a one-year low, the cost of insuring its debt spiked sharply, and equities fell across central Europe after a spokesman for the new prime minister, Viktor Orban, said the economy was in a “grave” situation and a default was possible.
His comments came a day after a vice-president of the newly elected Fidesz party suggested public finances were in a worse shape than the government had expected.
But Hungary’s central bank, previous government and many analysts immediately insisted the warnings were exaggerated and that the country’s finances were much sounder than those of Greece.
The latest comments are likely to increase suspicions of the Fidesz administration among investors. Markets initially welcomed the centre-right party’s overwhelming election victory in April, but have been unsettled after the government clashed repeatedly with the central bank and called for foreign-currency loans to be converted into forints.
“The new government needs to think a bit more clearly about communication with the market,” said Tim Ash, global head of emerging market research at Royal Bank of Scotland. “You simply cannot talk like this in these markets.”
The government has accused the former administration of manipulating figures and lying about the country’s true economic health. It is expected this weekend to unveil findings from a fact-finding committee on the state of the economy, followed by an economic action plan.
Peter Szijjarto, Mr Orban’s spokesman, said on Friday the economy was in a “grave situation”. He added it was “not an exaggeration at all” to talk about a default.
Mr Szijjarto echoed Thursday’s comments from Lajos Kosa, a Fidesz vice-chairman, that the country had a slim chance of avoiding “the Greek situation”.
According to official figures, Hungary’s debt last year was 78 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest among the EU’s newest members. But it was not far above the 74 per cent European Union average, and well below Greece’s 115 per cent.
Budapest has not yet drawn down all of a €20bn ($24bn, £16.5bn) support package agreed with the International Monetary Fund and the EU in 2008.
Peter Oszko, finance minister in the previous Socialist-backed technocratic government, said Fidesz had made exaggerated economic promises during the election campaign. It was now having to prepare Hungarians for further austerity measures beyond those imposed by the former government as part of the IMF-led programme.
“They need to explain why they can’t deliver an economic miracle,” he said. “But this is a very expensive and very risky way of doing it, because it could result in a collapse which they can’t stop later.
“The reports we have published [on public finances] are right. They were supported by international institutions.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Crisi: Ungheria, banche italiane esposte
Dati Bri: in terza posizione con 21 mld dopo Austria e Germania
05 giugno, 09:19
(ANSA) - BUSAN (COREA SUD), 5 GIU - Sono italiane le banche piu' esposte dopo quelle austriache e tedesche verso l'Ungheria con circa 21 miliardi di euro per la Bri.
La Banca dei regolamenti internazionali ha reso noto i dati aggiornati a fine 2009:in Ungheria sono presenti i colossi italiani Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit.In particolare gli istituti austriaci raggiungevano quota 30,8 mld mentre quelli della Germania erano pari a quota 25 mld.Il 92% dell'esposizione,pari circa 120 mld,e' detenuta da banche europee.
Dati Bri: in terza posizione con 21 mld dopo Austria e Germania
05 giugno, 09:19
(ANSA) - BUSAN (COREA SUD), 5 GIU - Sono italiane le banche piu' esposte dopo quelle austriache e tedesche verso l'Ungheria con circa 21 miliardi di euro per la Bri.
La Banca dei regolamenti internazionali ha reso noto i dati aggiornati a fine 2009:in Ungheria sono presenti i colossi italiani Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit.In particolare gli istituti austriaci raggiungevano quota 30,8 mld mentre quelli della Germania erano pari a quota 25 mld.Il 92% dell'esposizione,pari circa 120 mld,e' detenuta da banche europee.
Kylix
Forumer attivo
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ungheria/ Marcia indietro governo su allarme conti:era esagerato
Budapest, 5 giu. (Ap) - Marcia indietro del governo dell'Ungheria sugli allarmi di rischi di insolvenza lanciati ieri, su cui i mercati mondiali avevano trovato nuovi spunti nell'ondata di forti cali.
A paventare rischi sui conti pubblici era stato un portavoce del governo, ma oggi il segretario di Stato Mihaly Varga, figura di spicco della maggioranza sulle questioni economiche, ha affermato che questi commenti erano "esagerati e sfortunati".
Allo stesso tempo ha ribadito che il governo intende contenere come previsto il deficit di bilancio del 2010 al 3,8 per cento del Pil. Anche se questo obiettivo richiederà, ha puntualizzato, misure "immediate e urgenti". Proprio Varga è a capo di una commissione del nuovo governo di centro destra incaricata di effettuare una ricognizione sullo stato dei conti pubblici.
In un contesto dei mercati che ormai da mesi sono sotto tensione dal dissesto di bilancio della Grecia, e dalle pressioni sui conti di altri paesi dell'area euro, le frasi allarmate di ieri del portavoce dell'esecutivo avevano scatenato un putiferio.
Wall Street, già depressa per dati sul mercato del lavoro di maggio meno solidi del previsto, dopo il montare degli allarmi sull'Ungheria aveva visto l'indice Dow Jones chiudere con una caduta del 3,15 per cento.
Oggi a smorzare gli allarmi sul caso Ungheria è stato anche il commissario europeo agli Affari economici, Olli Renh, secondo cui si è trattato di "esagerazioni", così come sugli allarmi sull'euro. "L'Ungheria ha compiuto seri progressi nel consolidamento delle sue finanze pubbliche negli ultimi due anni", ha rilevato incontrando i giornalisti al termine del G20 finanziario a Busan, in Corea del Sud.
***
.
Budapest, 5 giu. (Ap) - Marcia indietro del governo dell'Ungheria sugli allarmi di rischi di insolvenza lanciati ieri, su cui i mercati mondiali avevano trovato nuovi spunti nell'ondata di forti cali.
A paventare rischi sui conti pubblici era stato un portavoce del governo, ma oggi il segretario di Stato Mihaly Varga, figura di spicco della maggioranza sulle questioni economiche, ha affermato che questi commenti erano "esagerati e sfortunati".
Allo stesso tempo ha ribadito che il governo intende contenere come previsto il deficit di bilancio del 2010 al 3,8 per cento del Pil. Anche se questo obiettivo richiederà, ha puntualizzato, misure "immediate e urgenti". Proprio Varga è a capo di una commissione del nuovo governo di centro destra incaricata di effettuare una ricognizione sullo stato dei conti pubblici.
In un contesto dei mercati che ormai da mesi sono sotto tensione dal dissesto di bilancio della Grecia, e dalle pressioni sui conti di altri paesi dell'area euro, le frasi allarmate di ieri del portavoce dell'esecutivo avevano scatenato un putiferio.
Wall Street, già depressa per dati sul mercato del lavoro di maggio meno solidi del previsto, dopo il montare degli allarmi sull'Ungheria aveva visto l'indice Dow Jones chiudere con una caduta del 3,15 per cento.
Oggi a smorzare gli allarmi sul caso Ungheria è stato anche il commissario europeo agli Affari economici, Olli Renh, secondo cui si è trattato di "esagerazioni", così come sugli allarmi sull'euro. "L'Ungheria ha compiuto seri progressi nel consolidamento delle sue finanze pubbliche negli ultimi due anni", ha rilevato incontrando i giornalisti al termine del G20 finanziario a Busan, in Corea del Sud.
***
.
ilfolignate
Forumer storico
Anche Moody's si affretta a gettare acqua sul fuoco 
Moody's: Ungheria non e' prossima Grecia
'Ha buoni precedenti nella gestione delle crisi di bilancio'
05 giugno, 13:14
(ANSA) - MILANO, 5 GIU - L'Ungheria ha buoni precedenti nella gestione delle crisi di bilancio e secondo l'agenzia Moody's prenderà le misure necessarie. 'L'Ungheria non è la prossima Grecia', ha detto a Bloomberg Kristin Lindow, vice presidente Moody's. Il paese già in passato ha mostrato di saper 'fare quello che deve fare quando è in difficoltà'. Ieri, dopo che il portavoce del neoeletto primo ministro Viktor Orban, ha detto che un default non è escluso, sono crollati titoli di stato, fiorino e Borse.
Moody's: Ungheria non e' prossima Grecia
'Ha buoni precedenti nella gestione delle crisi di bilancio'
05 giugno, 13:14
(ANSA) - MILANO, 5 GIU - L'Ungheria ha buoni precedenti nella gestione delle crisi di bilancio e secondo l'agenzia Moody's prenderà le misure necessarie. 'L'Ungheria non è la prossima Grecia', ha detto a Bloomberg Kristin Lindow, vice presidente Moody's. Il paese già in passato ha mostrato di saper 'fare quello che deve fare quando è in difficoltà'. Ieri, dopo che il portavoce del neoeletto primo ministro Viktor Orban, ha detto che un default non è escluso, sono crollati titoli di stato, fiorino e Borse.
Imark
Forumer storico
just on time ! oggi fatto -15% da 107 a 92 ....
ps. Mark , te lo ricordi "nuove emissioni" cerini & paduli volano bassi ""
Infatti da qualche settimana mi ero un po' sganciato dal 3D: o rendimenti "da fame" oppure elevati, ma a fronte di un'assunzione di rischio troppo elevata... insomma, il risk/reward sui new items non mi sembrava più soddisfacente...
Mi aspetto nei mesi prossimi non solo riduzione delle nuove emissioni ma anche qualche fase di sostanziale chiusura del primario ad emissioni corporate Hy ed IG low rating...
Solo dopo, con rendimenti che siano tornati convenienti rispetto al rischio, si potrà tornare a fare le opportune valutazioni... ma ora mi sembra tutto piuttosto poco premiante... scusate l'OT...
vais
Forumer storico
Da la Stampa
Ungheria, se un calcolo
politico scatena il panico
condividi 
Il Paese è solido, il debito pubblico è al 78% del Pil
STEFANO LEPRI
Capita di rado che un governo metta nei guai il proprio Paese descrivendolo come vicino alla bancarotta. E’ successo ieri a Budapest. E i mercati, che ogni giorno cercano spunti per poter giocare al ribasso contro l’euro, ci si sono gettati di volata, anche per rifarsi delle speculazioni andate male delle settimane scorse. Così i guai hanno contagiato le economie di tutto il continente.
Forse non durerà, dato che l’Ungheria ha usato solo metà dei 24 miliardi del piano di aiuti Europa-Fmi, e che gli stessi analisti finanziari sospettano che sia tutta politica interna di Budapest. Che basti così poco - un battito d’ali che provoca una burrasca - dà il segno dei tempi che viviamo. L’Ungheria non fa parte dell’area euro e conta solo per lo 0,84% dell’intera economia europea a 27. Ma se il portavoce del suo nuovo ministro Viktor Orban, che di nome fa Peter Szijjarto, considera «non esagerato parlare di rischio di bancarotta», si scatena il pandemonio in tutto il continente, e anche al di là. L’euro scende sotto un dollaro e 20, dando esca alla seconda gaffe della giornata, quella del primo ministro francese François Fillon, che immedesimandosi troppo negli esportatori del suo Paese, si fa scappare che non gli dispiacerebbe l’euro 1 a 1 con il dollaro.
I numeri ufficiali dell’Ungheria si dovrebbero sapere lunedì. Il precedente governo di centro-sinistra (l’alternanza è avvenuta nella direzione opposta a quella di Atene l’anno scorso) prevedeva per quest’anno un deficit al 3,8% del prodotto lordo, in base al programma concordato con Unione europea e Fondo monetario. Secondo le ultime voci provenienti dal centro-destra ora al potere, potrebbe essere il doppio. Il 7,5% non sarebbe poco, ma neppure una cifra da bancarotta in un Paese dove il debito pubblico accumulato è il 78%, molto più basso che in Grecia (e in Italia); la quota di bond a breve in scadenza non è alta.
A differenza della Grecia, nei conti dell’Ungheria avevano già messo il naso la Commissione europea e il Fmi. C’è già un piano di aiuti, operativo da mesi. Sarebbe normale che a Budapest, come in tutte le altre capitali, ci si ingegnasse a dimostrare che si tratta di un caso molto differente dalla Grecia. Invece no, per calcolo politico interno si è inscenato un dramma, non rendendosi conto che il teatro delle marionette della politica interna è osservato in tutto il mondo da spettatori che non capiscono la lingua e vedono solo la zuffa.
Il nuovo governo guidato da Orban ha una maggioranza robustissima ma deve fare i conti con una destra estrema in ascesa; ha vinto le elezioni con una promessa impossibile da realizzare di meno tasse e di fine dell’austerità. Pare tranquillo Corrado Passera, amministratore delegato di Intesa San Paolo che controlla una delle principali banche ungheresi: «Mi sembra che le voci e le dichiarazioni che sono venute dall'Ungheria siano un po’ politiche, a uso interno e forse poco ragionate: noi pensiamo che l’Ungheria abbia una sua solidità di fondo».
Qualsiasi sia la verità sul deficit «il nuovo governo ungherese dimostra di capire assai poco come funzionano i mercati», afferma un rapporto della Danske Bank. «Quando persone vicine al governo si esprimono così, come credono che reagiscano gli investitori?», rincarano alla Royal Bank of Scotland. Secondo la Citigroup si tratta «di commenti di tipo populista, dato che per tutto il 2010 l’Ungheria appare in grado di rifinanziare il suo debito». «Comprate fiorini ungheresi, il paragone con la Grecia è esagerato», ha scritto Bnp Paribas ai suoi clienti.
Smentendo chi sostiene che la Grecia starebbe meglio senza euro, avere una moneta propria non ha affatto alleviato le difficoltà; negli ultimi sei mesi il fiorino si è deprezzato sul dollaro all’incirca quanto l’euro. Il rischio è piuttosto che il panico metta in difficoltà le banche ungheresi e qui il contagio sarebbe inevitabile, dato che sono controllate per il 24% da aziende di proprietà austriaca, 21% tedesca, 17% italiana.
Ungheria, se un calcolo
politico scatena il panico
condividi
Forse non durerà, dato che l’Ungheria ha usato solo metà dei 24 miliardi del piano di aiuti Europa-Fmi, e che gli stessi analisti finanziari sospettano che sia tutta politica interna di Budapest. Che basti così poco - un battito d’ali che provoca una burrasca - dà il segno dei tempi che viviamo. L’Ungheria non fa parte dell’area euro e conta solo per lo 0,84% dell’intera economia europea a 27. Ma se il portavoce del suo nuovo ministro Viktor Orban, che di nome fa Peter Szijjarto, considera «non esagerato parlare di rischio di bancarotta», si scatena il pandemonio in tutto il continente, e anche al di là. L’euro scende sotto un dollaro e 20, dando esca alla seconda gaffe della giornata, quella del primo ministro francese François Fillon, che immedesimandosi troppo negli esportatori del suo Paese, si fa scappare che non gli dispiacerebbe l’euro 1 a 1 con il dollaro.
I numeri ufficiali dell’Ungheria si dovrebbero sapere lunedì. Il precedente governo di centro-sinistra (l’alternanza è avvenuta nella direzione opposta a quella di Atene l’anno scorso) prevedeva per quest’anno un deficit al 3,8% del prodotto lordo, in base al programma concordato con Unione europea e Fondo monetario. Secondo le ultime voci provenienti dal centro-destra ora al potere, potrebbe essere il doppio. Il 7,5% non sarebbe poco, ma neppure una cifra da bancarotta in un Paese dove il debito pubblico accumulato è il 78%, molto più basso che in Grecia (e in Italia); la quota di bond a breve in scadenza non è alta.
A differenza della Grecia, nei conti dell’Ungheria avevano già messo il naso la Commissione europea e il Fmi. C’è già un piano di aiuti, operativo da mesi. Sarebbe normale che a Budapest, come in tutte le altre capitali, ci si ingegnasse a dimostrare che si tratta di un caso molto differente dalla Grecia. Invece no, per calcolo politico interno si è inscenato un dramma, non rendendosi conto che il teatro delle marionette della politica interna è osservato in tutto il mondo da spettatori che non capiscono la lingua e vedono solo la zuffa.
Il nuovo governo guidato da Orban ha una maggioranza robustissima ma deve fare i conti con una destra estrema in ascesa; ha vinto le elezioni con una promessa impossibile da realizzare di meno tasse e di fine dell’austerità. Pare tranquillo Corrado Passera, amministratore delegato di Intesa San Paolo che controlla una delle principali banche ungheresi: «Mi sembra che le voci e le dichiarazioni che sono venute dall'Ungheria siano un po’ politiche, a uso interno e forse poco ragionate: noi pensiamo che l’Ungheria abbia una sua solidità di fondo».
Qualsiasi sia la verità sul deficit «il nuovo governo ungherese dimostra di capire assai poco come funzionano i mercati», afferma un rapporto della Danske Bank. «Quando persone vicine al governo si esprimono così, come credono che reagiscano gli investitori?», rincarano alla Royal Bank of Scotland. Secondo la Citigroup si tratta «di commenti di tipo populista, dato che per tutto il 2010 l’Ungheria appare in grado di rifinanziare il suo debito». «Comprate fiorini ungheresi, il paragone con la Grecia è esagerato», ha scritto Bnp Paribas ai suoi clienti.
Smentendo chi sostiene che la Grecia starebbe meglio senza euro, avere una moneta propria non ha affatto alleviato le difficoltà; negli ultimi sei mesi il fiorino si è deprezzato sul dollaro all’incirca quanto l’euro. Il rischio è piuttosto che il panico metta in difficoltà le banche ungheresi e qui il contagio sarebbe inevitabile, dato che sono controllate per il 24% da aziende di proprietà austriaca, 21% tedesca, 17% italiana.
Imark
Forumer storico
Il contrordine degli ungheresi: niente rischio default, raggiungeremo il target del 3,8% di deficit/PIL, restiamo intenzionati ad entrare nell'euro nel 2014.
I commentatori dicono: probabilmente volevano che il FMi e la UE accettassero la revisione del target 2010 al 4,55 di defict/PIL contro il 3,8% dell'impegno iniziale.
Dico come la penso: secondo me Obama deve aver chiamato i vertici del nuovo governo ungherese e fatto una lavata di testa a tutti, imponendo di non suscitare allarmismi almeno fino alle elezioni di midterm.
E' evidente che il problema per gli ungheresi è che, dopo un 2009 con il PIL in calo del 6,3%, il raggiungere l'obiettivo del 3,8% di deficit/PIL dal 7-7,5% rivisto (contro il 4,5% sostenuto dal precedente governo e dalla BC ungherese) significa sfiancare il paese, nel senso che con il Peg all'euro e la disoccupazione sopra il 10%, resta da vedere se ce la faranno... peraltro nel 2011 questi dovrebbero scendere al 2,9% di deficit/PIL nel 2011, e dipenderà da quanto le misure adottate saranno "strutturali" ed in grado di riprodurre automaticamente effetti di riduzione del deficit pubblico nel 2011.
Anche perché nel 2010 il PIL è previsto a crescita zero, ma se dovranno varare robuste misure aggiuntive, anche qui l'effetto potrebbe essere all'insegna di un calo e di una sorta di avvitamento deflazionistico.
Vediamo quanto i mercati si sentiranno "tranquillizzati" lunedì: in realtà qui la toppa sembrerebbe qualitativamente peggiore del buco, per come sono andate le cose...
(Adds analyst comment, background.)
By Margit Feher Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES BUDAPEST (Dow Jones)--Hungary's new government rushed to calm markets Saturday with a pledge to keep the country's official budget deficit goal for 2010 as is while stressing that the country isn't facing any sovereign credit default.
An official of the new cabinet, which took office a week ago, also stressed Hungary's commitment to adopt the euro.
The government's pledges will likely soothe Hungary's rattled financial markets somewhat and the Hungarian currency may return Monday to stronger levels, analysts said.
"The planned deficit target cannot be maintained without immediate action. The cabinet has been called for a three-day extraordinary meeting. We want that the planned deficit target come true," said Mihaly Varga, the head of a committee in charge of unearthing the "true" state of the budget.
Hungary targets this year's budget shortfall at 3.8% of gross domestic product under its standby credit line with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. Due to its high external debt and lax fiscal policies, Hungary was the first E.U. country that secured IMF support when hit hard by the global economic crisis in 2008.
"The prime minister [Viktor Orban] supports our proposal that in the current state of the world economy the government should aspire to deliver a budget deficit as small as possible," Varga said at a press conference presenting the initial findings of his committee.
The budget deficit this year could reach as high as 7% to 7.5% of GDP without fiscal measures, the new government's officials said in the previous weeks. The National Bank of Hungary estimated in its latest policy paper May 31 that current revenue and expenditure trends will lead to a 4.5%-of-GDP budget deficit this year.
Varga declined to state how wide the 2010 budget deficit would be without the government's future measures and blamed the previous two Socialist governments for misleading the public about the true state of the budget.
"In the current situation, the only target we may have is that the planned [budget deficit] goal come true, and that the government aspires to regain credibility and reach a change in the [country's] credit default swaps on international markets," he said.
Remarks Thursday by the vice president of the election-winning Fidesz party, Lajos Kosa, that Hungary is in a Greece-like sovereign credit crisis caused the Hungarian forint to tank on foreign exchange markets, where the euro was also coming under pressure. Hungary's credit default swaps, an instrument seen as a measure of how risky investing into a country's assets is, rose to a 12-month high.
"The colleague's remark about the sovereign default was unfortunate. Hungary is not among the countries that face a default. Here the debate is about how to reach a 3.8% deficit and the situation is totally different from places where the deficit is over 10% [of GDP]," Varga said, adding that the remark on default was an "exaggeration."
The center-right Fidesz party won parliamentary elections in April with a landslide, unseating the minority Socialist government that implemented painful austerity measures to regain investor confidence. That hard-earned confidence evaporated Friday.
The cabinet is to come up with an action plan to keep the budget on course within 72 hours, Varga said, noting, however, that plans for tax cuts are still in place.
The IMF's regional representative is in Budapest "for unofficial talks to learn about the planned measures," Varga said.
"Fidesz has scored an own-goal. It has been communicating strongly how catastrophic the situation is to push the IMF and the E.U. to accept an upward revision to the 2010 budget deficit goal. Now that has backfired, and both the IMF and the E.U. are sticking to the original 3.8% target, this is what this course of events shows," ING Bank economist David Nemeth said.
Nemeth still saw some moderate upward revision in the 2010 deficit goal, probably to around 4.5% of GDP, as likely acceptable for the IMF and the E.U. on condition Fidesz outlines an acceptable budget path plan for the coming years.
Hungary is also committed to meet the euro adoption criteria.
"The prime minister also supported that the introduction of the euro should be an important goal [for the government], there's no other road for Hungary but the [adoption] of the euro," Varga said.
Budget performance in 2010 will be key for the 2011 budget target, Varga said. Under its current targets Hungary plans to shrink its budget deficit to 2.9% of GDP in 2011, below the 3% threshold set for euro zone applicants.
Hungarian financial markets will likely calm Monday. ING's Nemeth said the forint could strengthen to HUF280 against the euro from a 12-month low of HUF288 Friday. If the government presents a credible set of fiscal measures, the forint could return to the HUF270-280 range, Nemeth added.
Should the forint weaken further, above the HUF310 mark, the central bank may need to hike interest rates, Nomura economist Peter Attard Montalto said Friday.
"Fidesz is playing a dangerous game and risks pushing the market too far, squandering a perfect inheritance from the previous government," Montalto said prior to Saturday's government announcement.
I commentatori dicono: probabilmente volevano che il FMi e la UE accettassero la revisione del target 2010 al 4,55 di defict/PIL contro il 3,8% dell'impegno iniziale.
Dico come la penso: secondo me Obama deve aver chiamato i vertici del nuovo governo ungherese e fatto una lavata di testa a tutti, imponendo di non suscitare allarmismi almeno fino alle elezioni di midterm.
E' evidente che il problema per gli ungheresi è che, dopo un 2009 con il PIL in calo del 6,3%, il raggiungere l'obiettivo del 3,8% di deficit/PIL dal 7-7,5% rivisto (contro il 4,5% sostenuto dal precedente governo e dalla BC ungherese) significa sfiancare il paese, nel senso che con il Peg all'euro e la disoccupazione sopra il 10%, resta da vedere se ce la faranno... peraltro nel 2011 questi dovrebbero scendere al 2,9% di deficit/PIL nel 2011, e dipenderà da quanto le misure adottate saranno "strutturali" ed in grado di riprodurre automaticamente effetti di riduzione del deficit pubblico nel 2011.
Anche perché nel 2010 il PIL è previsto a crescita zero, ma se dovranno varare robuste misure aggiuntive, anche qui l'effetto potrebbe essere all'insegna di un calo e di una sorta di avvitamento deflazionistico.
Vediamo quanto i mercati si sentiranno "tranquillizzati" lunedì: in realtà qui la toppa sembrerebbe qualitativamente peggiore del buco, per come sono andate le cose...
- JUNE 5, 2010, 9:46 A.M. ET
(Adds analyst comment, background.)
By Margit Feher Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES BUDAPEST (Dow Jones)--Hungary's new government rushed to calm markets Saturday with a pledge to keep the country's official budget deficit goal for 2010 as is while stressing that the country isn't facing any sovereign credit default.
An official of the new cabinet, which took office a week ago, also stressed Hungary's commitment to adopt the euro.
The government's pledges will likely soothe Hungary's rattled financial markets somewhat and the Hungarian currency may return Monday to stronger levels, analysts said.
"The planned deficit target cannot be maintained without immediate action. The cabinet has been called for a three-day extraordinary meeting. We want that the planned deficit target come true," said Mihaly Varga, the head of a committee in charge of unearthing the "true" state of the budget.
Hungary targets this year's budget shortfall at 3.8% of gross domestic product under its standby credit line with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. Due to its high external debt and lax fiscal policies, Hungary was the first E.U. country that secured IMF support when hit hard by the global economic crisis in 2008.
"The prime minister [Viktor Orban] supports our proposal that in the current state of the world economy the government should aspire to deliver a budget deficit as small as possible," Varga said at a press conference presenting the initial findings of his committee.
The budget deficit this year could reach as high as 7% to 7.5% of GDP without fiscal measures, the new government's officials said in the previous weeks. The National Bank of Hungary estimated in its latest policy paper May 31 that current revenue and expenditure trends will lead to a 4.5%-of-GDP budget deficit this year.
Varga declined to state how wide the 2010 budget deficit would be without the government's future measures and blamed the previous two Socialist governments for misleading the public about the true state of the budget.
"In the current situation, the only target we may have is that the planned [budget deficit] goal come true, and that the government aspires to regain credibility and reach a change in the [country's] credit default swaps on international markets," he said.
Remarks Thursday by the vice president of the election-winning Fidesz party, Lajos Kosa, that Hungary is in a Greece-like sovereign credit crisis caused the Hungarian forint to tank on foreign exchange markets, where the euro was also coming under pressure. Hungary's credit default swaps, an instrument seen as a measure of how risky investing into a country's assets is, rose to a 12-month high.
"The colleague's remark about the sovereign default was unfortunate. Hungary is not among the countries that face a default. Here the debate is about how to reach a 3.8% deficit and the situation is totally different from places where the deficit is over 10% [of GDP]," Varga said, adding that the remark on default was an "exaggeration."
The center-right Fidesz party won parliamentary elections in April with a landslide, unseating the minority Socialist government that implemented painful austerity measures to regain investor confidence. That hard-earned confidence evaporated Friday.
The cabinet is to come up with an action plan to keep the budget on course within 72 hours, Varga said, noting, however, that plans for tax cuts are still in place.
The IMF's regional representative is in Budapest "for unofficial talks to learn about the planned measures," Varga said.
"Fidesz has scored an own-goal. It has been communicating strongly how catastrophic the situation is to push the IMF and the E.U. to accept an upward revision to the 2010 budget deficit goal. Now that has backfired, and both the IMF and the E.U. are sticking to the original 3.8% target, this is what this course of events shows," ING Bank economist David Nemeth said.
Nemeth still saw some moderate upward revision in the 2010 deficit goal, probably to around 4.5% of GDP, as likely acceptable for the IMF and the E.U. on condition Fidesz outlines an acceptable budget path plan for the coming years.
Hungary is also committed to meet the euro adoption criteria.
"The prime minister also supported that the introduction of the euro should be an important goal [for the government], there's no other road for Hungary but the [adoption] of the euro," Varga said.
Budget performance in 2010 will be key for the 2011 budget target, Varga said. Under its current targets Hungary plans to shrink its budget deficit to 2.9% of GDP in 2011, below the 3% threshold set for euro zone applicants.
Hungarian financial markets will likely calm Monday. ING's Nemeth said the forint could strengthen to HUF280 against the euro from a 12-month low of HUF288 Friday. If the government presents a credible set of fiscal measures, the forint could return to the HUF270-280 range, Nemeth added.
Should the forint weaken further, above the HUF310 mark, the central bank may need to hike interest rates, Nomura economist Peter Attard Montalto said Friday.
"Fidesz is playing a dangerous game and risks pushing the market too far, squandering a perfect inheritance from the previous government," Montalto said prior to Saturday's government announcement.
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