Obbligazioni societarie Voestalpine, ThyssenKrupp, ArcelorMittal e l'industra dell'acciaio

[Imark]

ThyssenKrupp dismette quote di azioni nella controllata brasiliana, a fronte di poco meno di 1 mld $

Fitch: ThyssenKrupp Ratings Unaffected by Sale of Brazil Equity stake

23 Jul 2009 10:08 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Dubai-23 July 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that ThyssenKrupp AG's (TK) ratings are unaffected by the proposed sale of an equity stake in ThyssenKrupp CSA Siderurgica do Atlantico Ltda (CSA) to Vale S.A (Vale). TK has a Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating of 'BBB-', respectively. The company's Short-term IDR is rated 'F3', and the Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Negative.

TK announced earlier today that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding to sell a 16.87% stake in CSA to Vale in return for a capital infusion of EUR965m (Vale already holds a 10% interest in CSA). CSA is currently constructing a 5Mtpa slab plant in Brazil with first production expected in H1 2010.

"TK's announcement is in line with Fitch's expectation that the company would adapt its investment program and use non-operational sources to reduce its debt burden," said Peter Archbold, Senior Director, Fitch's EMEA Metals & Mining team. "A successful completion of the proposed transaction would be a mild positive for TK's ratings. Several downside risks do, however, exist including the possibility of a weaker than expected recovery in global growth rates which would impact the pace of TK's expected deleveraging from 2010 onwards."

Fitch released its latest Global Steel Outlook on 23 June 2009 which sets outs the agency's view that a rebound in real demand will require a strengthening of consumer and investment spending, and that a recovery in real demand is unlikely to begin before the fourth quarter of 2009. The report, entitled "Worldwide Steel Outlook: Excess Capacity Expected into the Medium Term", is available at www.fitchratings.com.

TK is a diversified industrial group. The conglomerate, which employs nearly 200,000 people worldwide, has leading global market positions in steel and elevators, as well as in selected engineering and services activities. TK realised sales of EUR53.4bn in FY08.

 

[Imark]

La trimestrale di ArcelorMittal, in perdita per effetto di svalutazioni sul magazzino e di costi stimati a fronte del taglio di posti di lavoro.

Prevede domanda in leggera ripresa a fronte di prezzi stabili o in lieve calo nel Q3/2009 ed un EBITDA che, sebbene in ripresa rispetto a quello del trimestre precedente appena riportato, rischia di risultare inferiore per l'80% a quello dello scorso anno (fra taglio della produzione e drastico calo dei prezzi)

AM ha informato ufficialmente sull'esito delle trattive sui covenant con i prestatori bancari: il leverage ammesso viene portato a 4.5x per fine 2009, a 4x per giugno 2010 e a 3.5x per dicembre 2010.

Questo dà riferimenti precisi circa il fatto che si punti su di ripresa di una qualche consistenza dell'EBITDA nel 2010 (e/o sulla capacità di ridurre il debito nel mentre atrtaverso altre misure), e finisce per offrire all'obbligazionista entrato sulle nuove emissioni due opzioni circa la gestione dell'investimento: 1) portare a casa il gain in tempi piuttosto brevi, finché tengono i mercati, e dunque entro qualche settimana, sull'assunto che quell'obiettivo di leverage possa non essere raggiunto, mentre il rating rischia di contrarsi notevolmente già di qui a fine anno; 2) provare a tenere i bond in portafoglio per il tempo che occorrerà a guadare la crisi, a prescindere dai movimento di prezzo che verranno e che potrebbero rivelarsi anche bruschi.

UPDATE 2-ArcelorMittal sees modest Q3 upturn, shares drop

Wed Jul 29, 2009 4:01am ED

* Q2 EBITDA $1.22 bln vs expected $1.17 bln
* Sees Q3 EBITDA of $1.4-1.8 bln, less than expected
* Sees improved shipments in Q3, stable to lower prices
* Shares fall on disappointing outlook

(Updates with CFO comments, shares, analyst comment)
By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, July 29 (Reuters) - ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS), the world's largest steelmaker, forecast only a gradual second-half pick-up after weak demand and prices, inventory writedowns and job cut costs produced a third successive quarterly loss.

Chief Financial Officer Aditya Mittal said on Wednesday the company had seen initial signs of recovery, with destocking drawing to a close and price rises in various markets.

"We are expecting the first half will be the bottom of the cycle. In the second half we should be see gradual demand growth and price increases -- clearly from very low levels though," he told a conference call.
"The fourth quarter should see further improvement but a full recovery will be slow and progressive."

Overall, the CFO said he expected global demand for steel to fall by 10 percent this year, but that demand in China was currently running 10 percent higher than last year.

For the third quarter, the company said its much-watched core profit (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation or EBITDA) would be $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion.

The mid-point of that range would be an 81-percent slide year-on-year and below the average analyst expectation of closer to $2 billion.

By 0800 GMT, ArcelorMittal shares were down 3.9 percent at 24.31, up from initial lows and compared to a 1.5 percent drop in the DJ Stoxx European basic resources index .SXPP. The shares rose 26 percent to a nine-month high in a two-week rally that ended on Monday.

"It's a meagre outlook. There's recovery, but it's not as fast and as great as expected," said Rabo Securities analyst Frank Claassen.

The company's EBITDA slid 85 percent in the second quarter to $1.22 billion. The average forecast in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts was $1.17 billion. ArcelorMittal itself had previously given a guidance range of $1.2-$1.5 billion.

The global downturn has hit demand for steel, an industry often seen as a broad gauge of an economy's strength, as activity in the key auto and construction sectors has tumbled.

ArcelorMittal made a worse-than-expected net loss of $792 million, with further inventory write-downs and provisions for job cuts.

DESTOCKING ENDS, DEMAND STILL WEAK

The company and its rivals have felt a double blow as customers opt to run down stocks rather than buy fresh steel, leaving many steelmakers running at half capacity.

However, that destocking is drawing to a close.

ArcelorMittal has announced the reopening of three blast furnaces in Europe and one in the United States.

It forecast shipments would be about 1 million tonnes more in the third quarter than the second, raw material costs would be down and average prices would be stable to lower despite improved spot prices, which should have more of an effect in the fourth quarter.

Nippon Steel (5401.T), the world's number two steelmaker, reported a quarterly loss on Wednesday on large one-time losses and said it would not pay a first-half dividend. [ID:nT184210]

JFE Holdings (5411.T), the world's number five steelmaker, said on Tuesday it had swung to a quarterly loss but forecast a full-year profit. [ID:nT284039]

ArcelorMittal, three times larger than its nearest rival with some 10 percent of the world steel market, has faced scrutiny over debt driven up by acquisitions, notably the then Mittal Steel's 26 billion euro ($37.1 billion) takeover of Arcelor in 2006.

The company's net debt fell to $22.9 billion at the end of June, from $26.7 billion at end-March and close to its year-end target of $22.5 billion. It has calmed nerves with $11 billion of equity, convertible and bond issues in the past quarter.

It also agreed with lenders earlier this month to relax its covenants on more than $31 billion of credit. It said that meant its net debt/EBITDA limits were now 4.5 times in December 2009, 4.0 in June 2010, reverting to 3.5 times in December 2010.

(Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; editing by John Stonestreet)

 

[Imark]

Una Bloomberg che riporta ulteriori dettagli sui conti trimestrali di AM.

ArcelorMittal Posts $792 Million Loss, Raises Output (Update2)

By Mark Herlihy

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, posted a third consecutive quarterly loss and said it plans to restart some shuttered output as demand recovers.

The second-quarter net loss was $792 million, or 57 cents a share, compared with net income of $5.84 billion, or $4.19, a year earlier, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal said today in a statement. The loss, which included $1.2 billion of inventory writedowns and provisions for job cuts, missed the $336 million median of eighth analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The shares slid as much as 7.9 percent, the most in two months.

“The second quarter continued to be challenging with weak demand,” Chief Financial Officer Aditya Mittal said in a conference call. “We expect the first half of 2009 to be the bottom of the cycle.”

ArcelorMittal, whose share price advanced 47 percent in the quarter, said this month it was restarting blast furnaces in Ghent in Belgium, Florange in France, and Gijon in Spain as customers buy steel to replace depleted inventories. The company shipped 17 million metric tons of steel in the second quarter, 43 percent less than a year earlier.

The shares were 1.455 euros lower at 23.87 euros as of 8:07 a.m. in Amsterdam trading. They fell as much as 7.9 percent in opening trade, the biggest intraday drop since May 21.

Higher Shipments

The company forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion in the third quarter. Average steel selling prices will be stable or slightly lower, it said. Shipments will be least 1 million tons higher than in the second quarter, Mittal said.

“If all the steelmakers increase production we’ll be back where we started,” Charlie Dove-Edwin, an analyst at MF Global UK Ltd. in London who has a “sell” recommendation on the stock, said by phone today. “There’s not enough real demand out here and making more steel will just send the price down.”

Analysts predict a return to profit in the quarter as demand recovers and prices increase. The cost of hot-rolled coil, a benchmark steel product used in cars and construction, gained 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the first such increase in a year, according to data compiled by Metal Bulletin.

ArcelorMittal said it achieved annualized fixed-cost cuts of $8.4 billion at the end of the second quarter. Sales declined 60 percent to $15.2 billion.
Loan Terms

The steelmaker said July 17 there was a “positive outcome” to its request to lenders to amend terms on $31 billion of loan facilities. The ratio of debt to Ebitda on the company’s principal facilities will rise to 4.5 in December and will fall to 4 in June and 3.5 in December 2010.

ArcelorMittal spent $3.8 billion on acquisitions since the start of 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, to gain greater control over supplies of iron ore and coking coal.

The company, formed by the takeover of Arcelor SA by Mittal Steel Co. in 2006, produced 101.6 million tons of steel in 2008, 7.7 percent of the world total of 1.32 billion tons, the World Steel Association said on its Web site.

 

[lorenzo63]

By MATTHEW CURTIN
ArcelorMittal has injected a dose of reality into investor expectations of the steel industry's turnaround. The sector is off rock bottom earlier than expected, but the pace of recovery remains sluggish.

That's particularly the case in Europe where ArcelorMittal makes a third of its steel. Eurofer, an industry association, is forecasting a 14% rise in steel consumption next year but that's after a 33% slump in 2009. ArcelorMittal now faces the delicate task of preparing for a modest pick-up in orders while demand remains weak.

That means continued pressure on ArcelorMittal's balance sheet despite months of frenetic refinancing. Crucial is its banks' agreement to temporarily loosen the 3.5-times net debt to Ebitda covenant on the facilities that make up much of its $22.9 billion in net borrowings. The covenant, assessed every six months, is now 4.5 times for the end of this year and four times for end-June 2010.
The message is clear. ArcelorMittal has little chance of making the $6.4 billion in full-year Ebitda it would have needed to meet the original covenant. Second-quarter earnings of $1.2 billion, up from $883 million the previous quarter, were at the low end of analysts' expectations.

The steelmaker expects to do only moderately better in the current three months. The recent improvement in working capital, worth $2.4 billion in cash in the second quarter, will reverse as ArcelorMittal gears up production, cut back by 50% earlier this year, for the likely upswing in first-quarter orders further squeezing cash flow.

ArcelorMittal's shares fell 4% on management's cautious outlook. But the stock is still up 41% this year and still looks expensive. The shares trade on 13 times 2009 forecast Ebitda, a premium to the European sector and recent historical valuations.

Such exuberance is hard to square with the risk too much steel capacity might come back on the market in Europe too soon, delaying a return to mid-cycle profitability. Europe's response has been to slap ill-judged protectionist tariffs on Chinese steel-pipe imports. But the only real solution is to shutter high-cost steel capacity for good -- something no producer, ArcelorMittal included, has been prepared to contemplate.

 

[Imark]

Recente riduzione dell'outlook su Arcelormittal da parte di Fitch, sull'assunto che il debito difficilmente scenderà nel H2/2009 sotto i livelli di chiusura del primo semestre, circostanza che, secondo l'agenzia, considerato il possibile andamento dell'EBITDA, proietta il leverage attorno a quota 3,75x-4x entro fine 2009.

Tale livello (ed altri elementi di metrica finanziaria) sono già incompatibili con un rating BBB, ma Fitch si attende un recupero di parametri in linea con il rating nel corso dei prossimi 18-24 mesi...

Molto forte la posizione di liquidità, e questo in parte dovrebbe aiutare a guadare il periodo difficile atteso nella ripresa del comparto.

Restano nondimeno incertezze legate alla consisrtenza di una eventuale ripresa e soprattutto, alla tempistica con la quale essa dovesse manifestarsi.

Fitch Changes ArcelorMittal Outlook to Negative; Affirms Ratings at 'BBB'

31 Jul 2009 5:23 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-31 July 2009: Fitch Ratings has today changed ArcelorMittal S.A's (AM) Outlook to Negative from Stable. The agency has simultaneously affirmed AM's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB' respectively and affirmed the Short-term IDR at 'F2'. The Outlook revision reflects the agency's increased concern regarding the pace and timing of the current recovery in world steel prices and volumes.

Fitch's previous forecasts for AM assumed a progressive recovery in steel shipments over the course of 2009, culminating in Q409 shipments of around 22 million metric tonnes, and a limited price recovery commencing in Q409.

Whilst an end to destocking - and rise in apparent consumption - in the US and Europe would appear to be proceeding in line with Fitch's expectations, the agency notes comments by AM that its Q309 volumes will be only "slightly higher" than the 17 million metric tonnes shipped in Q209. This suggests a flatter recovery curve and the prospect of a delay in volume and price improvements, and a resultant delay in the expected recovery of AM's credit metrics.

Under the assumption of more muted volume increases in Q3 and Q4 2009, Fitch is now forecasting AM's FYE09 EBITDAR at around USD5.6bn-5.8bn (previously USD6.3bn). Fitch also does not now foresee a significant reduction in net debt from Q209 levels (USD22.9bn), implying FYE09 net leverage of around 3.75-4.0x.

Whilst on a "point-in-time" basis, leverage at this level would be considered high for the current rating, Fitch currently believes it likely that AM will be able to return to an "exit" credit profile commensurate with the 'BBB' rating within an 18-24 month period. Over the period to the end of FYE11 Fitch expects AM to generate cumulative funds from operation (FFO) of around USD23bn-25bn.

Fitch believes that AM's management continues to react appropriately to the current economic downturn, shown in part by the significant improvement to AM's liquidity profile in Q209.

AM's current liquidity totals USD19.5bn, factoring in the announced USD3.2bn syndicated facility cancellation, compared to an aggregate USD10.8bn of repayments until the end of FY10. This includes USD2.1bn of CP maturities which AM is likely to continue to be able to extend.

The company has also removed short-term covenant pressure, having agreed - subject to document execution - a temporary relaxation of its net leverage ratio of a maximum of 3.5x, to 4.5x in December 2009, and to 4.0x in June 2010, reverting to a maximum of 3.5x thereafter.

AM's ratings continue to reflect its core strengths including its scale as the world's largest steel producer. Further strengths include its leading market positions in most key steel consuming regions, significant product and geographic diversification, competitive operating cost positions, and strong participation at all stages of the steel value chain from ownership of raw materials to control of its own distribution networks

 

[albicocco]

Io ho Arcelor Mittal 2016 che quota 115 a soli 2 mesi dall'emissione. Ma la cedola è del 9,375% e se esco dove vado? Già sono uscito da Wind..
Ma se non riuscisse a rispettare gli accordi con le banche cosa succederebbe ?
Per Fiat le banche italiane hanno sempre... lasciato correre, ma qui chi sostiene il gruppo indiano? Chi sono le principali banche creditrici e dove sono le fabbriche piu' grandi?
Gazprom a Putin e la Russia alle spalle e questi?

 

[Imark]

Io ho Arcelor Mittal 2016 che quota 115 a soli 2 mesi dall'emissione. Ma la cedola è del 9,375% e se esco dove vado? Già sono uscito da Wind..
Ma se non riuscisse a rispettare gli accordi con le banche cosa succederebbe ?
Per Fiat le banche italiane hanno sempre... lasciato correre, ma qui chi sostiene il gruppo indiano? Chi sono le principali banche creditrici e dove sono le fabbriche piu' grandi?
Gazprom a Putin e la Russia alle spalle e questi?

Questa è messa meglio di Wind... e se non riuscisse a rispettare gli accordi con le banche, le banche stesse almeno in un primo tempo credo la sosterrebbero, vista la loro esposizione debitoria...

E' il principale produttore mondiale, con principali mercati di riferimento quelli occidentali (Europa ed USA).

 

[solenoide]

Oggi usciti i dati di Thyssen , sinceramente non ho capito , i risultati dono peggiori o migliori delle attese?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5XvLh2P2GeU

The company had net income of 573 million euros in the same period last year, Dusseldorf-based ThyssenKrupp said today in a statement. The loss was wider than the 464 million-euro mean of 7 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales slid 34 percent to 9.3 billion euros.

Subito dopo esce questa :

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aC_CIdj6ENyI

ThyssenKrupp Gains After Earnings Before Items Beat Estimates

The loss, excluding inventory writedowns and reorganization costs, was 452 million euros ($645 million) in the three months ended June 30, the Dusseldorf-based company said today in a statement. That beat the 479 million euros predicted by Bank of America Corp. and 539 million euros estimated by Commerzbank AG.

E di nuovo :

The fiscal third-quarter net loss was 639 million euros, compared with net income of 573 million euros in the same period last year. That was wider than the 464 million-euro mean of 7 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales slid 34 percent to 9.3 billion euros.

Non mi sembra che ci sia da festeggiare invece il titolo fa quasi + 4% perche' forse la ripresina , la svolta , abbiamo toccato il fondo....mah!

 

[Imark]

Oggi usciti i dati di Thyssen , sinceramente non ho capito , i risultati dono peggiori o migliori delle attese?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5XvLh2P2GeU

The company had net income of 573 million euros in the same period last year, Dusseldorf-based ThyssenKrupp said today in a statement. The loss was wider than the 464 million-euro mean of 7 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales slid 34 percent to 9.3 billion euros.

Subito dopo esce questa :

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aC_CIdj6ENyI

ThyssenKrupp Gains After Earnings Before Items Beat Estimates

The loss, excluding inventory writedowns and reorganization costs, was 452 million euros ($645 million) in the three months ended June 30, the Dusseldorf-based company said today in a statement. That beat the 479 million euros predicted by Bank of America Corp. and 539 million euros estimated by Commerzbank AG.

E di nuovo :

The fiscal third-quarter net loss was 639 million euros, compared with net income of 573 million euros in the same period last year. That was wider than the 464 million-euro mean of 7 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales slid 34 percent to 9.3 billion euros.

Non mi sembra che ci sia da festeggiare invece il titolo fa quasi + 4% perche' forse la ripresina , la svolta , abbiamo toccato il fondo....mah!

A me non sembrano malaccio, se guardiamo all'andamento del comparto: non ho approfondito sui conti, ma se è vero quanto leggo, la perdita netta è generata quasi per intero da costi di ristrutturazione, abbattimento del valore del magazzino ed altre voci analoghe, senza le quali il risultato netto sarebbe stato, appunto, marginalmente negativo...

 

[Imark]

Nuovo bond in arrivo per AM, un 2039 in USD per un importo di 1 mld $

Fitch Assigns ArcelorMittal's 2039 Bonds Expected 'BBB' Rating
02 Oct 2009 12:02 PM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-02 October 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned ArcelorMittal S.A.'s (AM) prospective USD1bn 30-year (2039) notes issue an expected senior unsecured rating of 'BBB'. The expected rating is in line with AM's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB'. The Outlook on AM's Long-term IDR is Negative.

AM plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes and to extend the tenor of existing group debt. Fitch will assign the notes a final rating upon closure, scheduled for 8 October 2009, subject to receipt of final documentation materially conforming to the draft documentation reviewed.

The notes will be unsecured, unsubordinated obligations of AM and will rank equally with existing unsecured, unsubordinated obligations. Fitch notes that the draft documentation includes protection to noteholders in the event of an acquisition through a change of control clause, although there are some exceptions including in respect of a change of control involving members of the Mittal family. The draft documentation does not contain specific financial covenants.

Luxembourg-based AM is the world's largest steel company with FY08 shipments of 102 million tonnes of steel, sales of USD124.9bn and EBITDA of USD24.4bn