Imark
Forumer storico
Per un outlook compartimentale, interessante il punto di vista espresso nei giorni scorsi dall'Associazione dei produttori di acciaio tedeschi.
In sintesi, anche il 2010 sarà un anno "molto difficile", con un ritorno alla crescita del ciclo produttivo dell'acciao rinviata al 2011 (se tutto va bene) ed il rischio che i cinesi, esauritasi la spinta generata dai piani di stimolo economico nel proprio paese, siano spinti dalla capacità produttiva accumulata in questi anni invadendo i mercati occidentali.
In positivo, il convincimento che il peggio sia alle spalle per il comparto, sebbene la domanda tenda a languire non solo in Germania (come dimostrato di recente dai conti trimestrali di ArcelorMittal e di US Steel).
L'euro forte rende ancor più competitiva l'offerta non solo dei cinesi, ma anche dei russi e degli ucraini.
L'output tedesco di acciaio si è ridotto nel 2009 del 30%, segnando una contrazione sui livelli minimi di 46 anni fa. Il recupero effettivo della domanda è legato all'andamento dei comparti automobilistico ed edilizio, che in due totalizzano il 50% del consumo di acciaio tedesco
UPDATE 2-German steel body sees recovery only by 2011
Mon Nov 9, 2009 9:38am EST
* German steel group sees 2010 as very difficult yr as well
* Says steel cycle to normalise in 2011 at earliest
* Sees China becoming net steel exporter in Q4
(Adds further comments)
DUESSELDORF, Germany, Nov 9 (Reuters) - There will be no recovery for Germany's steel industry until at least 2011, following a "very difficult" 2010, the country's steel federation said on Monday.
"But the worst is behind us," Federation President Hans-Juergen Kerkhoff told reporters.
Kerkhoff said supply and demand in Germany, the biggest steel-making nation in Europe, had now "balanced out again" on a better level compared with early this year.
Third-quarter new orders were flat year on year, but the recovery was due to an end of destocking, he added.
"We expect a normalisation of the steel cycle in 2011 at the earliest," he added.
The world economy is still grappling with a slow recovery and traders warn that the few signs of a pick-up in recent weeks could largely be owed to bargain hunting, rather than signs of real demand.
A slew of results in October from European and U.S. steelmakers, including world No.1 ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS) and U.S. Steel Corp (X.N), have dampened recovery hopes, indicating that demand is still languishing.
Germany's ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE) reports fourth-quarter results on Nov. 27 and its smaller rival Salzgitter (SZGG.DE) issues third-quarter figures on Nov. 12. Shares in the two companies were up 1.9 and 2.3 percent respectively on Monday afternoon, outperforming Germany's blue-chip index .GDAXI which was 1.6 percent higher.
CHINA A RISK TO STEEL RECOVERY
Kerkhoff said that among risks to steel recovery worldwide were China's structural problems, and the country could again become a net exporter of steel in the fourth quarter, he added.
He did not rule out the possibility that European steelmakers would again ask the European Union -- as they did in 2007 -- to file anti-dumping suits against countries, such as China, if the latter resorted to "unfair" trading practices.
Steel imports by the EU from non-EU states have declined but the trend could swiftly reverse, with increases in products from Russia, Ukraine and China if a strong euro persists, he said.
Raw material prices, which have declined this year, have also remained high compared with long-term levels, he said.
The recovery among steel processors is threatened by the tight credit market situation and the restrictive offers by credit insurers for goods, he said.
"Given these risks, the outlook is therefore cautious overall," he added.
This year's German crude steel output is forecast to fall by around 30 percent to around 32 million tonnes, the lowest in 46 years, with demand from construction, automotive, shipbuilding and machine engineering evaporating.
German crude steel output could grow by a double-digit rate next year, albeit remaining below 40 million tonnes compared with the 45.8 million tonnes in 2008.
Kerkhoff said a significant recovery can only happen if real demand exists, but this has not materialised so far even though demand from end-customers, such as in machine engineers, has picked up.
He said it is not clear yet whether exports in the automotive industry would further stabilise. In construction, the basic trend remains weak. The two industries consume around 50 percent of German steel output.
(Reporting by Marilyn Gerlach; Editing by Mike Nesbit and Jon Loades-Carter)
In sintesi, anche il 2010 sarà un anno "molto difficile", con un ritorno alla crescita del ciclo produttivo dell'acciao rinviata al 2011 (se tutto va bene) ed il rischio che i cinesi, esauritasi la spinta generata dai piani di stimolo economico nel proprio paese, siano spinti dalla capacità produttiva accumulata in questi anni invadendo i mercati occidentali.
In positivo, il convincimento che il peggio sia alle spalle per il comparto, sebbene la domanda tenda a languire non solo in Germania (come dimostrato di recente dai conti trimestrali di ArcelorMittal e di US Steel).
L'euro forte rende ancor più competitiva l'offerta non solo dei cinesi, ma anche dei russi e degli ucraini.
L'output tedesco di acciaio si è ridotto nel 2009 del 30%, segnando una contrazione sui livelli minimi di 46 anni fa. Il recupero effettivo della domanda è legato all'andamento dei comparti automobilistico ed edilizio, che in due totalizzano il 50% del consumo di acciaio tedesco
UPDATE 2-German steel body sees recovery only by 2011
Mon Nov 9, 2009 9:38am EST
* German steel group sees 2010 as very difficult yr as well
* Says steel cycle to normalise in 2011 at earliest
* Sees China becoming net steel exporter in Q4
(Adds further comments)
DUESSELDORF, Germany, Nov 9 (Reuters) - There will be no recovery for Germany's steel industry until at least 2011, following a "very difficult" 2010, the country's steel federation said on Monday.
"But the worst is behind us," Federation President Hans-Juergen Kerkhoff told reporters.
Kerkhoff said supply and demand in Germany, the biggest steel-making nation in Europe, had now "balanced out again" on a better level compared with early this year.
Third-quarter new orders were flat year on year, but the recovery was due to an end of destocking, he added.
"We expect a normalisation of the steel cycle in 2011 at the earliest," he added.
The world economy is still grappling with a slow recovery and traders warn that the few signs of a pick-up in recent weeks could largely be owed to bargain hunting, rather than signs of real demand.
A slew of results in October from European and U.S. steelmakers, including world No.1 ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS) and U.S. Steel Corp (X.N), have dampened recovery hopes, indicating that demand is still languishing.
Germany's ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE) reports fourth-quarter results on Nov. 27 and its smaller rival Salzgitter (SZGG.DE) issues third-quarter figures on Nov. 12. Shares in the two companies were up 1.9 and 2.3 percent respectively on Monday afternoon, outperforming Germany's blue-chip index .GDAXI which was 1.6 percent higher.
CHINA A RISK TO STEEL RECOVERY
Kerkhoff said that among risks to steel recovery worldwide were China's structural problems, and the country could again become a net exporter of steel in the fourth quarter, he added.
He did not rule out the possibility that European steelmakers would again ask the European Union -- as they did in 2007 -- to file anti-dumping suits against countries, such as China, if the latter resorted to "unfair" trading practices.
Steel imports by the EU from non-EU states have declined but the trend could swiftly reverse, with increases in products from Russia, Ukraine and China if a strong euro persists, he said.
Raw material prices, which have declined this year, have also remained high compared with long-term levels, he said.
The recovery among steel processors is threatened by the tight credit market situation and the restrictive offers by credit insurers for goods, he said.
"Given these risks, the outlook is therefore cautious overall," he added.
This year's German crude steel output is forecast to fall by around 30 percent to around 32 million tonnes, the lowest in 46 years, with demand from construction, automotive, shipbuilding and machine engineering evaporating.
German crude steel output could grow by a double-digit rate next year, albeit remaining below 40 million tonnes compared with the 45.8 million tonnes in 2008.
Kerkhoff said a significant recovery can only happen if real demand exists, but this has not materialised so far even though demand from end-customers, such as in machine engineers, has picked up.
He said it is not clear yet whether exports in the automotive industry would further stabilise. In construction, the basic trend remains weak. The two industries consume around 50 percent of German steel output.
(Reporting by Marilyn Gerlach; Editing by Mike Nesbit and Jon Loades-Carter)
