Obbligazioni societarie Voestalpine, ThyssenKrupp, ArcelorMittal e l'industra dell'acciaio

[Imark]

ArcelorMittal... anche qui creditwatch da parte di Fitch per le medesime ragioni già esposte per Thyssen Krupp.

Il dettaglio in inglese, devo andare di fretta...


Fitch Places ArcelorMittal 'BBB+' on Watch Negative

20 Mar 2009 12:52 PM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-20 March 2009: Fitch Ratings has today placed ArcelorMittal S.A's (AM) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating of 'BBB+' respectively and the company's Short-term IDR of 'F2' on Rating Watch Negative (RWN).

The rating action follows increasing evidence of a further weakening of the global economy and steel market conditions beyond the agency's previous expectations, including yesterday's profit warning from key European peer ThyssenKrupp AG (TK, rated 'BBB+'/RWN/'F2').

TK warned that conditions had deteriorated in terms of speed and severity in recent weeks. While AM has greater scale and more diverse geographical and product exposures than TK and other large peers, it shares a significant exposure to Western Europe (36% of total shipments) and would not be immune to deteriorating conditions.

Fitch believes that recent newsflow increases the uncertainty surrounding volume and pricing trends over the course of 2009/2010 which the agency believes warrants a period of review and the RWN.

To date Fitch believes that AM management has responded appropriately to the current downturn having announced significant production cutbacks, a large cost reduction programme, and capex and dividend reductions.

However, the agency is concerned that these measures may not be sufficient to offset the impact of weakening end market conditions, particularly in the automotive and construction sectors.

Nevertheless, Fitch expects the group to remain free cash flow (FCF) positive in 2009, assisted by a large working capital inflow.

The agency also believes that liquidity remains adequate via a combination of on-balance sheet cash (USD7.5bn as at 12/2008) and USD5.8bn of headroom in existing committed credit facilities.

The group has around USD8.0bn of debt maturing in FY2010 but has already agreed with lenders to extend USD1.6bn of this via a forward start agreement to 2012.

Fitch expects to resolve the RWN within the next two months. Over this period the agency would expect to meet with and receive updated information from AM's management.

Luxembourg-based AM is the world's largest steel company with FY08 steel shipments of 102 million tonnes of steel, sales of USD124.9m and EBITDA (as reported) of USD24.4m.

 

[DinoP]

a proposito di Acerlor Mittel questa nuova emissione offre
anche un'eventuale opzione di convertibilità.
come va interpretata in questo momento di sfiga del settore?

Arcelor Mittal, leader nella produzione di acciaio a livello mondiale, offre ai sottoscrittori rendimenti alti (7,25% la cedola), una scadenza piuttosto limitata (5 anni) ed un’opzione di convertibilità. I titoli, infatti, sono convertibili in azioni Arcelor Mittal con un premio di circa il 30% sui prezzi attuali (a 20,25 Eur contro un prezzo di giovedì 26 marzo di 15,7 Eur).

 

[solenoide]

Thyssen Marine Systems

Stop immediato alla costruzione di 4 navi container perche' le banche non hanno erogato i necessari prestiti ai clienti
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems Stops the Building of Four Container Ships

The consequences of the global financial and economic crises have now reached ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems.
The yard has been informed by the client that the banks are not going to finance the construction of six 3,400 TEU class container ships so that, from today's point of view, the ships will not be accepted as previously agreed.

Against this background, the work on the container ships with Yard Nos. 420 and 421 at HDW-Gaarden in Kiel and Yard Nos. 560 and 561 at TKMS Blohm + Voss Nordseewerke will be stopped immediately.

 

[solenoide]

Thyssen ristrutturazione

Parte la ristrutturazione che si concludera' con l'inizio del nuovo anno fiscale (ottobre 2009)
Le divisioni verranno ridotte da 5 a 2 :

The Materials division will focus and strengthen the expansion of our materials capabilities and materials services along the value chain - purchasing, production, distribution and services. We will concentrate on consolidating our activities in Europe and developing further in the NAFTA region. In the current situation our focus is on the structural optimization of individual business units.

The Technologies division will focus and strengthen our technological capabilities in the area of global megatrends. We will concentrate on increased consolidation in Europe and the expansion of our activities in the Middle East and Asia. Here, too, our focus will initially be on the structural optimization of individual business units.


La sottoutilizzazione degli impianti , la pressione al ribasso sui prezzi e le svalutazioni sul magazzino avranno un fortissimo impatto sui risultati

Overall ThyssenKrupp currently expects to end the 1st half of the current fiscal year 2008/09 with only slightly positive operating earnings - before project and restructuring costs. For the 2nd quarter a loss is therefore expected. In particular, severe capacity
underutilization and price pressure as well as anticipated further write-downs on inventories will weigh heavily on results.

Hanno gia' lasciato a casa 5000 lavoratori con contratto temporaneo e 30.000 lavorano con orario ridotto ma non escludono altri tagli.
Si aspettano che la produzione durante l'anno torni ai livelli del 1980!


In the steel crisis in the early 1990s crude steel production decreased by only 10% at most. At that time ThyssenKrupp’s two predecessor companies had to reduce the headcount at their steel operations from altogether 94,000 in 1991 to 60,000 in 1996 -
an overall reduction of around 30%. Today crude steel production in Germany has dropped by 33% per month over the past three months compared with the previous year. We expect full-year output to fall to the level of the early 1980s, when crude steel
production in Germany was less than 36 million tons.

 

[Imark]

E gli angeli continuano a cadere... Tata Steel sotto l'IG per Fitch...


Fitch Downgrades Tata Steel & Tata Steel U.K.; Outlook Remains Negative

03 Apr 2009 11:29 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London/Mumbai/Singapore-03 April 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Tata Steel Limited's (TSL) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' (BBB minus), and its National Long-term rating to 'AA(ind)' from 'AAA(ind)'.

Simultaneously, Fitch has also downgraded Tata Steel U.K. Ltd's (TSUK) Long-term foreign currency IDR to 'B+' from 'BB'. The Outlook on all the ratings continues to be Negative. The instruments impacted by this rating action are listed at the end of this Rating Action Commentary.

The downgrade reflects a sharp correction in global demand for steel products in the past six months, the impact of which has been severe in Europe, in turn impacting the profitability and credit metrics of TSUK.

While TSL's India operations have also been impacted by the sharp drop in prices, the volume impact has been cushioned to an extent by continuing demand from the construction and infrastructure space. Fitch notes that the management of TSL has responded by scaling back its capex plans from approx. USD11bn to approx. USD4.8bn for FY09-FY11, and has initiated measures to improve efficiencies by restructuring some of its assets at TSUK as well as divesting some of its uneconomical and non core assets.

TSUK has also benefited from significant cost reductions in the past six months which are expected to provide benefits to the extent of approx. GBP600m. While Fitch has incorporated into its forecasts the benefits of these initiatives coupled with the expected benefits of raw material price reductions, these - in Fitch's opinion - would not be adequate to compensate for the sharp drop in profitability at TSUK.

Consequently, Fitch expects financial leverage for the consolidated entity to revert from its deleveraging trend and increase to beyond the 3.5x net debt to EBITDA level indicated previously as a negative rating trigger.

The agency continues to take a consolidated view on TSL in line with its Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage methodology - with TSUK's rating benefiting from potential parental support despite TSUK's acquisition debt remaining non-recourse to TSL. However, the extent of this potential parental support factored in has been reduced, placing the foreign currency IDR of TSUK at 'B+'.

The Negative Outlook continues to reflect the uncertainty over demand and prices (especially in Europe), and also takes into account the recent deterioration in conditions in Europe during the past few weeks which could potentially impact TSUK more than anticipated presently.

However, Fitch notes that TSUK's more modest capex plans do provide it with some additional flexibility and potentially therefore some downside protection. In any event, a financial leverage ratio in excess of 4.0x net debt to EBITDA on a sustained basis would act as a negative trigger for the ratings.

Fitch has also reviewed the ability of the Tata group to provide support to TSL. While the agency notes the sharp drop in valuations of key listed entities in the group - potentially limiting its ability to provide support to all group companies - it has drawn comfort from the valuations of some of the group's unlisted entities, providing it with additional financial flexibility not factored in at the time of our last review.

Additionally, in the context of potential group support, Fitch's draws comfort from its assessment of the strategic importance of TSL to the Tata group. Therefore, Fitch continues to provide a one-notch benefit to TSL's Long-term foreign currency IDR and National Long-term rating on account of expected support. Any weakening of linkages between the group and TSL, and/or the group's inability to provide support would continue to act as negative triggers to the rating.

The revised ratings continue to reflect the strength of TSL's low cost operations in India, with captive sources of iron-ore and coal. The liquidity profile of the group remains satisfactory, with repayments of its debt obligations being fairly back ended.

While Fitch expects EBITDA generation to remain under pressure, the consolidated entity would benefit from the release of working capital on account of lower production and expectation of lower iron-ore and coal prices for its TSUK operations.

With existing cash balances of USD1.36bn and undrawn lines of USD933m as at 31 March 2009, TSL's liquidity position is expected to remain comfortable. However, Fitch notes that the drop in EBITDA at TSUK could potentially lead to a breach of some of its covenants stipulated in the financing agreements. TSL has initiated discussions with its bankers to resolve this issue and Fitch would continue to monitor this closely.

TSL is the flagship of the Tata Group and the sixth-largest steel producer in the world. TSL's revenue composition remains tilted towards Europe, which contributed 69% of revenues in FY08, with India contributing 15%, Asia contributing12% and 5% from other markets.

Fitch has also downgraded the ratings on TSL and TSUK's debt instruments as follows: TSL:
Long Term Debt aggregating INR58.5bn: National Long-term rating at 'AA(ind)';
Non-Convertible Debenture Issue of INR20bn: National Long-term rating at 'AA (ind)';
Non-Convertible Debenture Issue of INR15bn: National Long-term rating at 'AA (ind)';
Fund Based Cash Credit Limits of INR10.6bn and Non-Fund Based Limits of INR23.40bn: National Long- term rating at 'AA(ind)'
Fund Based Limits of INR7.25bn and Non-Fund Based Limits of INR7.6bn: National Short-term rating at 'F1+(ind)'; and
Commercial Paper/Short Term Debt of INR9.75bn: National Short-term rating of 'F1+(ind)'. TSUK and its subsidiaries:
Senior Secured Bank Loan Facilities aggregating GBP 3.67bn: Long-term rating at 'BB-' (BB minus).

 

[Imark]

ArcelorMittal in creditwatch per un downgrade da parte di Moody's, la quale, tenunto conto dell'andamento del mercato ed in specie dei prezzi dell'acciaio, teme un deterioramento della metrica finanziaria di AM ed in particolare dei leverage ratio.

Con una possibile riduzione a doppia cifra percentuale del fatturto nel 2009, si attende anche un analogo effetto sulla capacità di generazione di utili e di cash flow.

La liquidità appare adeguata per il 2009, mentre per le ulteriori scadenze debitorie in maturazione nel 2010, dipenderà dalla capacità di generazione cash flow a livello operativo.

L'agenzia manifesta qualche preoccupazione circa la capacità di AM di superare il convenat test che vede le linee di credito bancarie accordate alla società condizionate nella effettiva disponibilità ad un leverage non eccedente 3,5x (anche se credo che a AM darebbero la possibilità di rinegoziare i covenant).

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's places ArcelorMittal's Baa2 rating on review for possible downgrade[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately USD 7 billion of debt instruments affected [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Frankfurt, April 07, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed the Baa2 long term and P2 short term ratings on review for possible downgrade. The rating action was prompted by the continued weakness in the steel markets and the effects this is expected to have on ArcelorMittal's leverage ratios. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]If prices for steel products remain at the current levels Moody's expects a high double digit contraction in turnover in 2009 which will have a corresponding effect on the company's ability to generate cash flows and profits. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Despite the measures ArcelorMittal has taken already to reduce its cost and adjust its production base this might not be sufficient to offset the expected decline in EBITDA and cash flows to remain within the Baa2 rating category. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]With the measures ArcelorMittal has taken to extend its maturity and debt profile, the liquidity appears adequate for 2009, though Moody's notes that the coverage of remaining debt maturities in 2010 are somewhat dependent upon operating cash flow generation. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In addition the company might be challenged to remain within the required covenant test, which requires a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.5x for its bank lines by year-end 2009, should the steel market remain depressed in the next few quarters. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The review therefore will focus on (i) AM's measures and ability to reduce cost and production in accordance with the contraction of the markets, (ii) additional measures which AM could take to improve its leverage ratios in the current financial year, (iii) the expected development in demand for the steel industry in general and (iv) the steps which AM might take to further reduce its short term indebtedness and at the same time to face the heightened challenge to remain in compliance with the financial covenants under its senior credit facilities at year-end 2009 should the weak environment persist. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's commented that a downgrade, if any, is likely to be limited to one notch. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]ArcelorMittal, based in Luxemburg, is the world's largest steel producer. The activities of the group are divided in six segments, Flat Carbon Americas; Flat Carbon Europe; Long Carbon Americas and Europe; Asia, Africa and CIS ("AACIS"); Stainless Steel and AM3S, the steel distribution division. In financial year 2008 the group generated turnover of USD 125 billion and EBITDA of USD 24.5 billion. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's last rating action on ArcelorMittal was to upgrade its rating from Baa3 to Baa2 on 17 January 2008[/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Il creditwatch negativo di S&P su US Steel, fra i maggiori produttori USA di acciaio, motivati, fra l'altro, dal fatto che il livello di utilizzazione degli impianti continua ad essere sotto il 50% e le aspettative sono che il mercato dell'acciaio USA rimanga debole per tutto il 2009.

United States Steel Corp. 'BB+' Corporate Credit Rating Placed On Watch Negative

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) April 16, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it placed its ratings, including its 'BB+' corporate credit rating, on Pittsburgh-based United States Steel Corp. on CreditWatch with negative implications.

"The CreditWatch listing reflects our concern that financial metrics will be inconsistent with the current rating, given the very weak operating environment, with U.S. steel mills operating at less than 50% capacity, and the lack of signs of meaningful recovery in steel end-markets in 2009," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Marie Shmaruk. Although the company has taken significant actions to restructure its operations, as an integrated steel producer it has a relatively high fixed-cost structure compared to its minimill competitors, which we would expect to lead to significantly weaker financial metrics during the current downturn.

For the rating, we would expect the company's adjusted debt to EBITDA to be below 4x and funds from operations to adjusted debt above 25%. We believe that with its significant financial leverage and uncertain end-market demand, the company could have difficulty reaching those levels in the next couple of years, which, based on our current expectations, could result in a one-notch downgrade. Total debt, adjusted for significant underfunded postretirement obligations, was $6.7 billion at year-end 2008.

In resolving the CreditWatch listing, we will evaluate the company's plans for dealing with the extremely difficult operating conditions, the likelihood of significant improvements in the next year, and review the company's liquidity position.

 

[Imark]

Su ArcelorMittal, Seven of Nine del Fol ha postato l'immagine allegata che riprende dai filing della società le scadenze debitorie nel triennio 2009-2011. Suo il commento che precede la Bloomberg.

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Arcelor è il più grande produttore di acciaio a livello mondiale, una società destinata a fare bene il prossimo anno con la probabile ripresa.

Il problema è che pur essendo a mio avviso una società di grande livello ha delle grosse scadenze quest'anno e il prossimo. Si è trovata a corto di Cash nel peggior momento possibile. All'uscita dell'annual report un buon analista avrebbe dovuto dare un occhiata qui:

(v. immagine postata)

La conseguenza è che deve ricapitalizzare con dolore fisico da parte dei stockholder's. Da seguire, ma solo da osservatori fino a quando non è stata completata la nuova offerta di azioni.

ArcelorMittal to Raise $3 Billion in Share, Bond Sale

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, plans to raise $3 billion from a sale of shares and bonds to accelerate the company’s debt reduction program.

The company, which reported a second straight quarterly loss today, is seeking $2.5 billion from a stock offering and $500 million from convertible notes due 2014, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal said today in an e-mailed statement. The Mittal family will subscribe to at least 10 percent of the shares.

Tumbling demand and metals prices have eroded earnings at ArcelorMittal and cut the value of stockpiles, encouraging the steelmaker to reduce debt and lengthen the repayment period for the remaining borrowings. Today’s offering of stocks and notes follows a sale of 1.1 billion euros of bonds and refinancing of $1.5 billion of credit in the past two months.

“In the long term, they are strengthening their financial position so it’s good for them but it’s not so great for shareholders now,” Tom Muller, an analyst at Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers in Amsterdam, said by phone. Muller said he won’t review his “buy” rating on the company because of the sale.

ArcelorMittal fell as much as 11 percent in Amsterdam trading. The company dropped 1.12 euros, or 6 percent, to 17.55 euros by 4 p.m. local time. It was the worst performing stock on the nine-company Bloomberg Europe Steel Index for a second day.

Goldman Sachs International, Calyon and Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking are joint bookrunners of both offerings. The price for the sale of 104 million shares will be decided by an accelerated bookbuild, according to a term sheet obtained by Bloomberg News.

Chief Financial Officer

The offerings are “credit-enhancing,” Chief Financial Officer Aditya Mittal said today on a telephone conference call. “We expect them to close shortly.”

ArcelorMittal’s ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will be less than 3.5 by the end of the year, he said, adding that the company expects to meet its debt covenants. The covenants are conditions imposed on the company by its lenders.

The cost of protecting against default on ArcelorMittal’s five-year bonds plunged today after rising sevenfold in the previous 12 months. Credit-default swaps on ArcelorMittal declined 110.5 basis points to 761 and ArcelorMittal Finance fell 101.5 to 736, the lowest since November, according to CMA DataVision prices at 2 p.m. in London.

The offering “is a good sign and should help them reduce the chance of a breach of debt covenants, but won’t fully,” Jonathan Pitkanen, a bond analyst at Aviva Plc in London, said today by phone. “It’s still touch and go.”

First-Quarter Loss

The company earlier reported a first-quarter net loss of $1.06 billion, or 78 cents a share, compared with net income of $2.37 billion, or $1.68, a year earlier. The loss exceeded the median estimate of $594 million from the five analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Sales slid 49 percent to $15.1 billion.

ArcelorMittal extended the period of its current funding to 2012 from 2010, the company said in its earnings statement. It recorded a one-time charge of $1.2 billion in the first quarter, mostly to write down the value of stockpiles, while steel shipments fell 45 percent to 16 million tons.

The steelmaker, formed through the takeover of Arcelor SA by Mittal Steel Co. in 2006, has cut output as the world economy shrank and demand fell. Weak orders from automakers and builders pushed global steel prices to a six-year low, and consumption will drop 15 percent in 2009, according to the World Steel Association.

European hot-rolled coil, a benchmark steel product used in cars and construction, slumped 56 percent since reaching a record high of 815 euros ($1,076) a metric ton in June, Metal Bulletin data showed

 

[ginopelo]

a proposito di Acerlor Mittel questa nuova emissione offre
anche un'eventuale opzione di convertibilità.
come va interpretata in questo momento di sfiga del settore?

Arcelor Mittal, leader nella produzione di acciaio a livello mondiale, offre ai sottoscrittori rendimenti alti (7,25% la cedola), una scadenza piuttosto limitata (5 anni) ed un’opzione di convertibilità. I titoli, infatti, sono convertibili in azioni Arcelor Mittal con un premio di circa il 30% sui prezzi attuali (a 20,25 Eur contro un prezzo di giovedì 26 marzo di 15,7 Eur).

azz e io che stavo per comprare la 2014 meno male che non è passato l'eseguito

 

[Imark]

Anche S&P, dopo Moody's, mette in osservazione il rating di ArcelorMittal per un downgrade... motivazioni analoghe a quelle dell'altra agenzia: debolezza dei risultati, cash burning, covenant test a rischio...

ArcelorMittal 'BBB+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Weak Operating Results

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) April 29, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it placed on CreditWatch with negative implications its 'BBB+' long-term corporate credit and debt ratings on Luxembourg-registered steel group ArcelorMittal and subsidiaries. At the same time, the 'BBB+' long-term and'A-2' short-term corporate credit ratings, and debt ratings, on finance subsidiary ArcelorMittal Finance were also placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

In addition, Standard & Poor's assigned its 'BBB+' senior unsecured debt rating to the €1.25 billion 7.25% convertible bond due April 1, 2014, issued by ArcelorMittal, and placed it on CreditWatch with negative implications.

"The CreditWatch placement follows the publication by ArcelorMittal of extremely weak operating results for the three months to March 31, 2009," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Alex Herbert. "We have heightened concerns that the group will be unable to maintain credit metrics that are consistent with the 'BBB+' rating. These metrics include a ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt of about 35%. "

As with peers, ArcelorMittal is experiencing a broad and severe weakening of its operating performance, caused by very difficult market conditions in the steel sector. This is evident in sharply reduced capacity utilization, shipments, and steel prices. Such conditions appear likely to continue, in our view.

In the three months to March 31, 2009, ArcelorMittal's EBITDA (before exceptional items) is reported at $883 million. This is a substantial 69% reduction compared with the fourth quarter of 2008, and an 82% fall compared with first quarter last year.

FFO was negative by about $1.2 billion in the three months to March 31, 2009, compared with positive $3.2 billion a year earlier.

We estimate adjusted debt over the period to be stable at about $35.0 billion (a figure that includes about $6.6 billion of pension and other postretirement obligations). We also estimate the ratio of last-12-months FFO to adjusted debt to be approximately 50% as at March 31, 2009, compared with about 62% at Dec. 31, 2008.

"In our opinion, ArcelorMittal will likely report a materially weaker operating performance in 2009, compared with 2008," said Mr. Herbert. "A combination of much lower cash flow generation and substantial adjusted debt will in our view pressure credit quality. We also anticipate much reduced headroom under the group's 3.5x net debt to EBITDA financial covenant (as defined), which is tested half-yearly."

Standard & Poor's aims to review the CreditWatch placement within the next two months, after further discussions with management. As part of the review, we will assess ArcelorMittal's business plans, including the scale and timing of likely corrective actions by management to adjust the group's business strategy and to protect its financial profile.

We will also assess ArcelorMittal's prevailing credit metrics and business prospects. We would likely limit any downgrade of the long-term rating to one notch