Titoli di Stato area non Euro ARGENTINA obbligazioni e tango bond (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione SINIBALDO
- Data di Inizio
tommy271
Forumer storico
Nery Persichini[URL='https://twitter.com/nerypersi']@nerypersi[/URL]
·
https://twitter.com/nerypersi/status/1230242783513972736
Análisis de sostenibilidad for dummies.
S̶u̶p̶e̶r̶á̶v̶i̶t̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶i̶o̶ ̶
C̶r̶e̶c̶i̶m̶i̶e̶n̶t̶o̶
Stock de deuda
Tasa de interés
Como el gobierno no te da los 2 primeros, hay que apretar al mercado para bajar los 2 segundos.
·
https://twitter.com/nerypersi/status/1230242783513972736
Análisis de sostenibilidad for dummies.
S̶u̶p̶e̶r̶á̶v̶i̶t̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶i̶o̶ ̶
C̶r̶e̶c̶i̶m̶i̶e̶n̶t̶o̶
Stock de deuda
Tasa de interés
Como el gobierno no te da los 2 primeros, hay que apretar al mercado para bajar los 2 segundos.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Il comunicato ufficiale del FMI:
IMF Staff Statement on Argentina
February 19, 2020
An IMF team, led by Julie Kozack Deputy Director of the Western Hemisphere Department and Luis Cubeddu Mission chief for Argentina, visited Buenos Aires[1] from February 12 to 19, 2020 to discuss the recent macroeconomic developments and learn more about the Argentine authorities’ economic plans and policies. At the conclusion of the staff visit, Ms. Kozack and Mr. Cubeddu issued the following statement:
“IMF staff had very productive meetings with the Argentine authorities on their macroeconomic plans and policies, the contours of which were reiterated by Economy Minister Martin Guzmán in his address in the Argentine Congress last week. We share the authorities’ overall objective to restore growth and reduce poverty, while also achieving an improvement in the fiscal and external balances.
“The Argentine authorities are moving to address the difficult economic and social situation facing the country. They have implemented a set of policies to address the rise in poverty, while also taking steps to stabilize the economy. Higher taxes are being used to in part finance increased social spending, most of which is targeted towards the most vulnerable. Supported by capital controls and a trade surplus, international reserves and the peso have stabilized. Inflation and inflation expectations have come down in recent months, but efforts are needed to reduce them further from current high levels. The authorities are also taking steps to secure a sustainable and orderly resolution of Argentina’s debt situation.
“Argentina’s debt and debt service capacity have deteriorated decidedly compared to the IMF’s last Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in July 2019, in the context of the Fourth Review under the Stand-By-Arrangement (SBA). On that occasion, the overall assessment was that Argentina’s public debt was sustainable, but not with high probability, given substantial downside risks, including: (i) heightened rollover risk due to the shorter maturities on new issuances; (ii) vulnerability of the debt trajectory to exchange rate movements, given the large share of foreign currency public debt; and (iii) large external financing needs, which is often a predictor of crisis in emerging economies.
“IMF staff notes that, subsequently, those risks to debt sustainability have materialized. In fact, since July 2019, the peso has depreciated by over 40 percent, sovereign spreads have increased by about 1100 basis points, international reserves have declined by about US$20 billion, and real GDP has contracted more than previously projected. As a result, gross public debt rose to nearly 90 percent of GDP at end-2019, 13 percentage points higher than the projection at the time of the Fourth Review. In addition, with the realization of the identified financing risks, since August 2019 the authorities have introduced capital flow management measures, imposed maturity extensions on certain debts, and resorted to central bank financing of the fiscal deficit.
“In light of these developments, and on the basis of the July 2019 DSA, IMF staff now assesses Argentina’s debt to be unsustainable. Specifically, staff is of the view that the primary surplus that would be needed to reduce public debt and gross financing needs to levels consistent with manageable rollover risk and satisfactory potential growth is not economically nor politically feasible. Accordingly, a definitive debt operation—yielding a meaningful contribution from private creditors—is required to help restore debt sustainability with high probability. IMF staff emphasized the importance of continuing a collaborative process of engagement with private creditors to maximize their participation in the debt operation.
“IMF staff and the authorities will continue to engage closely, and further discussions are planned as the authorities advance in defining their economic plans and policies. In the context of the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers meeting, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will meet with Economy Minister Martin Guzmán to discuss the next steps in the IMF’s engagement with Argentina.”
[1] IMF staff met with Economy Minister Martín Guzmán, Central Bank President Miguel Pesce, Ministers Daniel Arroyo, Ginés Gonzáles-García, Matías Kulfas, and Claudio Moroni, Secretary Gustavo Belíz, Deputy Chief of Cabinet Cecilia Todesca, Indec Director Marco Lavagna and other senior public officials.
IMF Staff Statement on Argentina
February 19, 2020
An IMF team, led by Julie Kozack Deputy Director of the Western Hemisphere Department and Luis Cubeddu Mission chief for Argentina, visited Buenos Aires[1] from February 12 to 19, 2020 to discuss the recent macroeconomic developments and learn more about the Argentine authorities’ economic plans and policies. At the conclusion of the staff visit, Ms. Kozack and Mr. Cubeddu issued the following statement:
“IMF staff had very productive meetings with the Argentine authorities on their macroeconomic plans and policies, the contours of which were reiterated by Economy Minister Martin Guzmán in his address in the Argentine Congress last week. We share the authorities’ overall objective to restore growth and reduce poverty, while also achieving an improvement in the fiscal and external balances.
“The Argentine authorities are moving to address the difficult economic and social situation facing the country. They have implemented a set of policies to address the rise in poverty, while also taking steps to stabilize the economy. Higher taxes are being used to in part finance increased social spending, most of which is targeted towards the most vulnerable. Supported by capital controls and a trade surplus, international reserves and the peso have stabilized. Inflation and inflation expectations have come down in recent months, but efforts are needed to reduce them further from current high levels. The authorities are also taking steps to secure a sustainable and orderly resolution of Argentina’s debt situation.
“Argentina’s debt and debt service capacity have deteriorated decidedly compared to the IMF’s last Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in July 2019, in the context of the Fourth Review under the Stand-By-Arrangement (SBA). On that occasion, the overall assessment was that Argentina’s public debt was sustainable, but not with high probability, given substantial downside risks, including: (i) heightened rollover risk due to the shorter maturities on new issuances; (ii) vulnerability of the debt trajectory to exchange rate movements, given the large share of foreign currency public debt; and (iii) large external financing needs, which is often a predictor of crisis in emerging economies.
“IMF staff notes that, subsequently, those risks to debt sustainability have materialized. In fact, since July 2019, the peso has depreciated by over 40 percent, sovereign spreads have increased by about 1100 basis points, international reserves have declined by about US$20 billion, and real GDP has contracted more than previously projected. As a result, gross public debt rose to nearly 90 percent of GDP at end-2019, 13 percentage points higher than the projection at the time of the Fourth Review. In addition, with the realization of the identified financing risks, since August 2019 the authorities have introduced capital flow management measures, imposed maturity extensions on certain debts, and resorted to central bank financing of the fiscal deficit.
“In light of these developments, and on the basis of the July 2019 DSA, IMF staff now assesses Argentina’s debt to be unsustainable. Specifically, staff is of the view that the primary surplus that would be needed to reduce public debt and gross financing needs to levels consistent with manageable rollover risk and satisfactory potential growth is not economically nor politically feasible. Accordingly, a definitive debt operation—yielding a meaningful contribution from private creditors—is required to help restore debt sustainability with high probability. IMF staff emphasized the importance of continuing a collaborative process of engagement with private creditors to maximize their participation in the debt operation.
“IMF staff and the authorities will continue to engage closely, and further discussions are planned as the authorities advance in defining their economic plans and policies. In the context of the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers meeting, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will meet with Economy Minister Martin Guzmán to discuss the next steps in the IMF’s engagement with Argentina.”
[1] IMF staff met with Economy Minister Martín Guzmán, Central Bank President Miguel Pesce, Ministers Daniel Arroyo, Ginés Gonzáles-García, Matías Kulfas, and Claudio Moroni, Secretary Gustavo Belíz, Deputy Chief of Cabinet Cecilia Todesca, Indec Director Marco Lavagna and other senior public officials.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Questa mattina i prezzi dei "bonos" sono in leggero calo. Ieri sera, sui mercati oltreoceano, hanno chiuso in leggero rialzo.
Impattano sulle quotazioni odierne le dichiarazioni del FMI, dove viene chiesto un contributo di sostanza ai bondholder per la ripresa dell'economia argentina.
Il quadro macroeconomico complessivo resta a tinte fosche, ma c'è qualche segnale positivo che potrebbe far ben sperare in una ripresa accelerata.
Vedo luce in fondo al tunnel.
Molto dipenderà dall'ampiezza del taglio sul debito e dalle scelte di politica economica che verranno fatte.
Ora non resta altro che ipotizzare quanto occorre tagliare per rendere il debito sostenibile, visto che il FMI è impossibilitato ad accettare un taglio.
In pratica servirebbe un taglio cedolare unito ad un haircut sul nominale.
Poi si tratterà di stabilire la necessità di un periodo di moratoria, questo è accettato dal FMI... probabilmente i termini saranno un pò diversi rispetto agli obbligazionisti privati.
Impattano sulle quotazioni odierne le dichiarazioni del FMI, dove viene chiesto un contributo di sostanza ai bondholder per la ripresa dell'economia argentina.
Il quadro macroeconomico complessivo resta a tinte fosche, ma c'è qualche segnale positivo che potrebbe far ben sperare in una ripresa accelerata.
Vedo luce in fondo al tunnel.
Molto dipenderà dall'ampiezza del taglio sul debito e dalle scelte di politica economica che verranno fatte.
Ora non resta altro che ipotizzare quanto occorre tagliare per rendere il debito sostenibile, visto che il FMI è impossibilitato ad accettare un taglio.
In pratica servirebbe un taglio cedolare unito ad un haircut sul nominale.
Poi si tratterà di stabilire la necessità di un periodo di moratoria, questo è accettato dal FMI... probabilmente i termini saranno un pò diversi rispetto agli obbligazionisti privati.
ficodindia
Forumer storico
Massimizzare la partecipazione dei privati alla sostenibilità del debito significa essenzialmente un taglio draconiano dei loro crediti, essenzialmente default.
tommy271
Forumer storico
La questione sarà: ci potrà essere un accordo tra Argentina e bondholder? Oppure si procederà ad una dichiarazione di ristrutturazione unilaterale?
neosephiroth86
Forumer storico
Stavo riflettendo sul possibile taglio atteso. Ad esempio mi sembra di capire che per il Dual Bond ley argentina il governo avesse proposto una riduzione del NPV del 30-40%....quindi mi sembra plausibile che la proposta fatta a marzo sarà in questo ordine. Se poi facessero un haircut del 20-30 % in termini di NPV per bond legislazione estera e magari con CAC più stringenti, non saremmo tanto fuori...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Le stime minime indicano la necessità di un taglio ponderato tra il 30/40%.
Molto dipenderà se ci sarà un accordo tra le parti che potrebbe consentire un haircut moderato oppure se unilateralmente con un taglio più consistente.
Il taglio stimato può essere una sommatoria di haircut su cedole e nominale.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
...tutto questo,si intravedono delle tempistiche entro le quali potrebbe essere o vanno avanti ancora per mesi e mesi..? Perdona la domanda non sto seguendo molto...
tommy271
Forumer storico
E' presumibile, se i fondi che detengono i pacchetti che impediscono l'attivazione delle CAC si opporranno ai tagli, ci potrà essere una discussione più lunga.
A questo proposito, la data di fine marzo sembra essere troppo ravvicinata per consentire una chiusura dell'accordo.
Resta da valutare se in caso di holdout ci potrà essere qualche titolo che sfuggirà ad una ristrutturazione ordinata e consensuale.
Contrariamente, resta la dichiarazione unilaterale che sarà a insindacabile giudizio di Buenos Aires ... con i consueti strascichi legali.
A questo proposito, la data di fine marzo sembra essere troppo ravvicinata per consentire una chiusura dell'accordo.
Resta da valutare se in caso di holdout ci potrà essere qualche titolo che sfuggirà ad una ristrutturazione ordinata e consensuale.
Contrariamente, resta la dichiarazione unilaterale che sarà a insindacabile giudizio di Buenos Aires ... con i consueti strascichi legali.