AIB could raise €2bn in buyback
By Conor Keane, Business editor 
Monday, January 24, 2011
AIB   could secure close to €2 billion of the €6.1bn in capital it needs to  raise by the end of February by buying back loan notes, at a 70%  discount, from the holders of €4.1bn in the bank’s debt. 
Jumpy loan note titleholders among the owners of  €4.1bn in subordinated debt issued by Allied Irish Bank had until Friday  last to signal their intention to accept the  deal. The offer was  broadly in line with current values of the loan notes on secondary  markets. 
  Initially, the bank had hoped to raise about €1.3bn,  but a high uptake of the offer is expected to push the capital gain for  the bank to close to €2bn. 
  It is understood that loan note  holders have been spooked by the signing by President Mary McAleese of  the Credit Institutions (Stabilisation) Act 2010, before Christmas. 
  The act allows for the "coercive" exchange of loan notes. A change in  sentiment to "burning bondholders" has pushed the holders of Irish bank  debt to get out while the going is good and before even bigger losses  are imposed on them. 
  The bank is expected to announce the details of the take-up on Thursday. 
  Bank of Ireland ran a similar exercise last month and got a 45% take-up. 
  Analysts expected demand of around 50% for AIB’s offer. A take-up of  70% of the total, at the 70% discount, would amount to a gain of close  to €2bn. 
   AIB said it would not comment on the  outcome of the buy back until Thursday at the earliest. 
  Allied Irish, effectively nationalised late last year after a €3.7bn  capital injection by the state, needs to raise an additional €6.1bn  capital by the end of February to meet new targets set under Ireland’s  €85bn IMF/EU bailout. 
  Bondholders are being offered €300 in  cash for every €1,000 of debt held — a discount of 70%. The offer covers  bonds issued in euro, dollars and sterling and has a total nominal  value of around €4.1bn. A total take-up of the offer would see AIB raise  nearly €3bn, but this is highly unlikely. 
  The European  Commission last month signalled that it wanted AIB’s shareholders and  junior bondholders to make "a significant contribution" to its  restructuring costs. 
  When the offer was made Tom Jenkins, an  analyst with Jefferies International in London said: "The offer is  pretty punitive, given where AIB’s bonds were trading a couple of months  ago, but I guess the cash makes it more palatable. 
  "Ireland’s new banking law makes it very plausible, something more penal will hit anyone refusing to take part this time."
 
This appeared in the printed version of the Irish Examiner Monday, January 24, 2011