The country’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen below $30bn and Moody’s estimates only about $5bn to $10bn of the total are usable reserves to meet future foreign currency debt servicing requirements at $4.7bn in 2020, followed by over $4bn in 2021 including the country’s eurobond maturities.
"Given that Lebanon's debt is mostly held by residents, a potential debt restructuring will have ripple effects across the domestic financial system, including depositors, and the economy," S&P said. "We expect that social unrest, a contracting economy, and intensifying liquidity pressures in the private sector will make it politically difficult to repay creditors in 2020 ... deep sectarian divisions in the political system and high regional security risks will continue to hamper policymaking, in our view."