BUnd, Bond e la bbband degli energumeni canuti VM13 (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione feliceanima
- Data di Inizio
Madiba
Forumer storico
oggi ho poco tempo, sto seguendo con ansia la mia posizione altamente speculativa... sui CCTpazzesco...
se fino all'anno scorso qualcuno mi avesse detto che si muovevano così tanto, li avrei presi a calci...
vabè segnalo 2 cose:
La padrona di quella Banca austriaca fallita per Madoff... sta davvero stringendo le chiappe
But another theory widely repeated by those who know Mrs. Kohn is that she may be afraid of some particularly displeased investors: Russian oligarchs whose money made up a chunk of the $2.1 billion that Bank Medici invested with Mr. Madoff.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/07/50853/madoff-ici/
E una cosa per i complottisti:Per chi ci crede: conciso, lucido, schematico. Interessante specialmente per chi vuole investire in accordo con il prossimo Nuovo Ordine Mondiale
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/james-rothschild-26-giugno-1863-vt37041.html?p=723373#post723373
non so se siamo già adesso all'eliminazione del modello consumista, forse no, il prossimo passo mi sembra l'estensione dell'euro a tutta la zona est europa, poi si vedrà, boh
Ciao Metatarso c'e' chi pensa che l'euro tra 10 anni non esista piu'
http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=5_-IrhYz3sY
quicksilver
Forumer storico
Attenzione a questa cosa
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/a...ressivo-di-enel-energia-vt37241.html?p=724136
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/a...ressivo-di-enel-energia-vt37241.html?p=724136
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
appoggio l'avucat
adieu
non avevo dubbi sebbene l'avucat a suo tempo avesse trovato la chiave di ingresso al magnifiko mondo del blog ed ora nega questo fatto!!! ma io lo porto in tribunale!!
f4f
翠鸟科
non avevo dubbi sebbene l'avucat a suo tempo avesse trovato la chiave di ingresso al magnifiko mondo del blog ed ora nega questo fatto!!! ma io lo porto in tribunale!!
dunque dunque fem kapè ...
tu porti l'avucàt in tribunale,
ma prima o dopo aver portato i vasi a Samo ?
f4f
翠鸟科
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
i vekkietti come l'avucat è meglio sempre metterli sull'attenti
gli auguri te le ho fatti in anticipo nel vecchio anno e ora in ritardo nel novello
gli auguri te le ho fatti in anticipo nel vecchio anno e ora in ritardo nel novello
f4f
翠鸟科
i vekkietti come l'avucat è meglio sempre metterli sull'attenti
gli auguri te le ho fatti in anticipo nel vecchio anno e ora in ritardo nel novello
non perdi il pelo nè il vizio
grassie per gli augguri
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Investors shun German bond auction
By David Oakley
Published: January 7 2009 13:30 | Last updated: January 7 2009 13:30
Investors shunned one of the most liquid and safest assets in the world on Wednesday as a German bond auction failed in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate their slowing economies.
It is the first eurozone bond auction of the year and an ominous sign of potential trouble ahead for governments around the world, with an estimated $3,000bn expected to be issued in sovereign debt this year – three times more than in 2008.
The auction of 10-year bonds failed to attract enough bids to reach the €6bn the government wanted to raise. Although a number of German bond auctions failed last year, it was almost unheard of before the credit crisis.
Meyrick Chapman, a fixed-income strategist at UBS, said: “When a German bond auction fails, then that does suggest there is trouble ahead for governments wanting to raise money in the debt markets.
“There was certainly a supply/demand imbalance because of the large amount of issuance in the last quarter of 2008 and the large amount due in the coming months. Before the financial crisis, German bond auctions just did not fail.”
Although government bond yields are trading at historically low levels, because of fears of deflation and investor demand for safe government paper in an uncertain climate, the failed German auction is a sign that appetite for these bonds is starting to diminish.
A number of countries, including the UK, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, have either struggled to sell bonds or been forced to cancel debt offerings because of a lack of demand.
The UK successfully sold £2bn in gilts due to mature in 2038 on Wednesday.
However, Robert Stheeman, chief executive of the UK Debt Management Office, warned last month that the ÜK government could also struggle to sell bonds because of the vast amount of bond issuance in the pipeline.
The UK is planning to raise £146bn in bonds this financial year – three times more than last year.
By David Oakley
Published: January 7 2009 13:30 | Last updated: January 7 2009 13:30
Investors shunned one of the most liquid and safest assets in the world on Wednesday as a German bond auction failed in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate their slowing economies.
It is the first eurozone bond auction of the year and an ominous sign of potential trouble ahead for governments around the world, with an estimated $3,000bn expected to be issued in sovereign debt this year – three times more than in 2008.
The auction of 10-year bonds failed to attract enough bids to reach the €6bn the government wanted to raise. Although a number of German bond auctions failed last year, it was almost unheard of before the credit crisis.
Meyrick Chapman, a fixed-income strategist at UBS, said: “When a German bond auction fails, then that does suggest there is trouble ahead for governments wanting to raise money in the debt markets.
“There was certainly a supply/demand imbalance because of the large amount of issuance in the last quarter of 2008 and the large amount due in the coming months. Before the financial crisis, German bond auctions just did not fail.”
Although government bond yields are trading at historically low levels, because of fears of deflation and investor demand for safe government paper in an uncertain climate, the failed German auction is a sign that appetite for these bonds is starting to diminish.
A number of countries, including the UK, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, have either struggled to sell bonds or been forced to cancel debt offerings because of a lack of demand.
The UK successfully sold £2bn in gilts due to mature in 2038 on Wednesday.
However, Robert Stheeman, chief executive of the UK Debt Management Office, warned last month that the ÜK government could also struggle to sell bonds because of the vast amount of bond issuance in the pipeline.
The UK is planning to raise £146bn in bonds this financial year – three times more than last year.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Onerous issuance
By Chris Giles, David Oakley and Michael Mackenzie
Published: January 6 2009 19:54 | Last updated: January 6 2009 19:54
This will be the year of government influence over the economy. So, for one, says President-elect Barack Obama, who is preparing a big stimulus package to be implemented shortly after his inauguration later this month.
Indeed, so too does Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who travels the world repeating its view that “fiscal stimulus is now essential to restore global growth”. The leaders of the Group of 20 industrialised and developing nations also agree. They pledged in November to “work together to restore global growth and achieve needed reforms in the world’s financial systems”.
But all this talk of government action to restore the global economy to an even keel presumes governments can fund the huge quantities of additional spending they are planning.
Whether it is largely additional discretionary expenditure, as is likely in the US, or the more automatic consequences of higher welfare spending in Europe, where state safety nets are more generous, governments can make a difference only if they can borrow. That depends on the bond markets.
The scale of the intended new issuance is dramatic. This year, borrowing in the US is likely to be close to $2,000bn (£1,360bn, €1,490bn), equivalent to some 14 per cent of gross domestic product. The planned £146bn ($215bn, €160bn) sale of UK government bonds amounts to close to 10 per cent of GDP. Thousands of billions of dollars of government-guaranteed bank and other private sector debt are being issued around the world.
Even in Germany, where ministers rail against the “crass Keynesianism” of Anglo-Saxon stimulus packages, government borrowing is projected to surge. Across Europe, the large amounts of new bonds coming to market are testing the appetite of investors. This month issuance will run at more than $20bn a week – double the levels of previous years.
At first sight, everything appears all right in government bond markets. A flight to quality has ensured high demand, at least in the secondary market. Yields – which have an inverse relationship to prices – have fallen to lows not seen for 50 years in some economies. They have dropped to little more than 1 per cent in Japan, 2 per cent in the US and about 3 per cent in Germany and the UK, enabling governments to borrow cheaply. Some analysts even talk of a possible bubble as prices soar – the corollary of low yields.
This is because slumping economies and worries about the financial system have fuelled demand for the safety of government debt of the developed world, as it is regarded as risk-free: these countries are not expected ever to default.
“Historically high levels of issuance have in the past seen yields fall. This is because the economies are usually doing poorly, which is supportive to bonds,” says Peter Schaffrik at Dresdner Kleinwort.
With interest rates falling to record lows as central banks attempt to kick-start their economies and fears rise of deflation, investors are likely to continue buying this debt because it offers a fixed rate of interest that will be boosted by falling prices and will not suffer from swings in stock markets.
In fact, the possibility of deflation has raised the demand for government paper even further, as investors expect many countries soon to follow the lead of the Federal Reserve in suggesting the purchase by central banks of government bonds in order to help the economy avoid deflation.
Many analysts predict these supportive factors for bonds will remain for the time being. Analysts at Capital Economics, for example, expect yields will fall further. They say monetary policy is likely to remain exceptionally loose for a lot longer than many market participants think, with interest rates unlikely to rise until at least 2011. They also predict that deflationary pressure will intensify against a backdrop of rapidly slowing economic growth and falling asset prices.
Other indicators from the bond markets suggest, however, that not everything is quite as benign as the message from the yields on big-economy nominal government bonds.
The yield on inflation-linked government bonds jumped last autumn as the financial crisis took hold. Because index-linked bonds strip out the effects of inflation expectations, they are arguably a better measure of investors’ confidence in governments’ ability to repay their debt – and that confidence is falling.
The suggestion from both nominal and real bond yields is therefore that investors expect inflation to plummet and want greater protection against default. The same message comes from the, admittedly thin, credit default swap market in sovereign debt where the cost of insuring against default has jumped for all advanced governments.
These market movements could easily represent a bubble in nominal government bond prices, as suggested by the Institute of International Finance, the trade organisation for the world’s largest banks, in its forecast for 2009. “It is hard to reconcile this bond market pricing with economic policies (both monetary and fiscal) designed to stimulate recovery,” the IIF argues. But even if the bond market movements are yet another example of inefficient market pricing, it is nonetheless somewhat unsettling that real interest rates have risen as governments started to borrow.
Smaller European countries, which are suddenly faced with much higher yields on their bonds than Germany even though they share the same currency, provide a second cause for concern.
At the end of 2007, the financing of government debt in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain was hardly more expensive than that of Germany. The difference in yields on 10-year benchmark bonds was greatest for Italy with a spread of 0.3 percentage points. But by the end of December 2008, those spreads had risen to a minimum of 0.8 percentage points for Spain, over 1 percentage point for Portugal and Italy and more than 2 percentage points for Greece.
Ten years since the launch of the euro, bond markets have started distinguishing markedly between different credit risks within the single currency area – limiting the scope for borrowing by the less creditworthy members.
A third reason for concern has been the faltering performance of bond auctions in recent weeks. Roger Brown, head of rates research at UBS, says: “In the UK, we saw a very poor bond auction only a few days after it announced its fiscal expansion plans in its pre-Budget report. To see difficulties so soon, before the very large amounts are issued this year, was an ominous sign, suggesting at some point governments may have to pay substantially higher interest rates to encourage investors to buy their bonds.”
But it is not just the UK that has struggled. All the main issuers have faced difficulties, with the cautious Germans no exception. In November a German bond auction failed when the amount raised fell short of its target. This is particularly worrying as Germany has one of the world’s biggest and most liquid bond markets. The Netherlands also failed to hit its target in an auction last month, while Belgium and Spain have cancelled offerings because of a lack of demand. Others such as the UK, France, Italy, Austria and Portugal have been forced to pay higher interest rates to encourage investors to buy bonds.
All these problems have come very early. The big tests will surely come this month, typically one of the heaviest for government bond issuance. Analysts expect a pipeline of about $150bn in Europe in January, nearly double the amount of past years. This heavy load will continue throughout the first quarter, with up to $350bn in bonds forecast to come to market. This is about $100bn more than 2008 and would beat all records for a first quarter.
As bond auction failures mount, Dresdner’s Mr Schaffrik says, the cost of issuing debt will rise: “At the moment, it is a question of price, not about investors refusing to buy. If you offer higher yields you can attract investors.”
To add to these concerns, a record amount of government-backed bank bonds are due to be issued this year, with estimates ranging to $2,000bn. These bonds will compete directly for investors with the governments themselves, as the guarantees give them the same risk-free status. The higher yields or interest rates they offer could encourage some investors to buy them instead of government bonds.
Meyrick Chapman at UBS says: “There is clearly a serious danger of crowding out ... with too many bonds chasing too few investors, especially for long maturities and lesser credits. There are only so many investors out there at present.”
With so much competition from governments for funds, other companies will be nervous before tapping the bond markets. As that potentially delays economic revival, authorities particularly in the US may ramp up outright official purchases of private sector debt to reduce borrowing costs. The aim would be to ensure a direct government stimulus to the economy, no crowding out of the private sector, economic recovery and a reduction in the risks of deflation.
Perversely, if all that is achieved, the point of recovery may be the crisis point for government bond markets. “As economic activity increases, it is then that nominal yields would likely rise, making overall debt interest payments more costly,” says Sean Shepley at Credit Suisse.
“You would expect tax revenues to start to improve and unemployment benefits to become less of a drain, so there would be some cyclical improvement in government finances. But it could still intensify pressure to cut the budget deficit in many countries.”
Amid all of this, deflation worries will have disappeared, policymakers will look at raising rather than cutting interest rates, there will be no more talk of printing money to buy corporate debt – and investors will switch to riskier assets and sell their safe government bonds.
By Chris Giles, David Oakley and Michael Mackenzie
Published: January 6 2009 19:54 | Last updated: January 6 2009 19:54
This will be the year of government influence over the economy. So, for one, says President-elect Barack Obama, who is preparing a big stimulus package to be implemented shortly after his inauguration later this month.
Indeed, so too does Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who travels the world repeating its view that “fiscal stimulus is now essential to restore global growth”. The leaders of the Group of 20 industrialised and developing nations also agree. They pledged in November to “work together to restore global growth and achieve needed reforms in the world’s financial systems”.
But all this talk of government action to restore the global economy to an even keel presumes governments can fund the huge quantities of additional spending they are planning.
Whether it is largely additional discretionary expenditure, as is likely in the US, or the more automatic consequences of higher welfare spending in Europe, where state safety nets are more generous, governments can make a difference only if they can borrow. That depends on the bond markets.
The scale of the intended new issuance is dramatic. This year, borrowing in the US is likely to be close to $2,000bn (£1,360bn, €1,490bn), equivalent to some 14 per cent of gross domestic product. The planned £146bn ($215bn, €160bn) sale of UK government bonds amounts to close to 10 per cent of GDP. Thousands of billions of dollars of government-guaranteed bank and other private sector debt are being issued around the world.
Even in Germany, where ministers rail against the “crass Keynesianism” of Anglo-Saxon stimulus packages, government borrowing is projected to surge. Across Europe, the large amounts of new bonds coming to market are testing the appetite of investors. This month issuance will run at more than $20bn a week – double the levels of previous years.
BOND BASICS:
Up for auction:
Governments use bond auctions to raise money to pay for public spending, whether on health, roads or social security.
A government will decide how much it needs to borrow in a given financial year and then spread these bonds auctions over this 12-month period. It will set the overall figure it intends to issue in debt before the financial year starts and inform the market, typically each week, how much money it plans to raise. The buyers of the debt, usually other governments, pension funds and life insurance companies, will then offer to buy the securities at a certain price and yield or interest rate.
If an auction is oversubscribed, the government will accept the bids of those offering the highest price and reject those offering less. However, if an auction fails or is undersubscribed, the government has to accept all the bids on offer, often for prices lower than it would like to pay, which means paying higher yields or interest rates to attract investors.
The risk is that some governments will not be able to raise as much money as they would like – or may find they have to pay higher interest rates to attract investors. In the worst case, the large amount of government issuance may also impede the reopening of credit markets in the private sector as investors switch to the increasing amount of safer sovereign securities that are available in the market. Up for auction:
Governments use bond auctions to raise money to pay for public spending, whether on health, roads or social security.
A government will decide how much it needs to borrow in a given financial year and then spread these bonds auctions over this 12-month period. It will set the overall figure it intends to issue in debt before the financial year starts and inform the market, typically each week, how much money it plans to raise. The buyers of the debt, usually other governments, pension funds and life insurance companies, will then offer to buy the securities at a certain price and yield or interest rate.
If an auction is oversubscribed, the government will accept the bids of those offering the highest price and reject those offering less. However, if an auction fails or is undersubscribed, the government has to accept all the bids on offer, often for prices lower than it would like to pay, which means paying higher yields or interest rates to attract investors.
At first sight, everything appears all right in government bond markets. A flight to quality has ensured high demand, at least in the secondary market. Yields – which have an inverse relationship to prices – have fallen to lows not seen for 50 years in some economies. They have dropped to little more than 1 per cent in Japan, 2 per cent in the US and about 3 per cent in Germany and the UK, enabling governments to borrow cheaply. Some analysts even talk of a possible bubble as prices soar – the corollary of low yields.
This is because slumping economies and worries about the financial system have fuelled demand for the safety of government debt of the developed world, as it is regarded as risk-free: these countries are not expected ever to default.
“Historically high levels of issuance have in the past seen yields fall. This is because the economies are usually doing poorly, which is supportive to bonds,” says Peter Schaffrik at Dresdner Kleinwort.
With interest rates falling to record lows as central banks attempt to kick-start their economies and fears rise of deflation, investors are likely to continue buying this debt because it offers a fixed rate of interest that will be boosted by falling prices and will not suffer from swings in stock markets.
In fact, the possibility of deflation has raised the demand for government paper even further, as investors expect many countries soon to follow the lead of the Federal Reserve in suggesting the purchase by central banks of government bonds in order to help the economy avoid deflation.
Many analysts predict these supportive factors for bonds will remain for the time being. Analysts at Capital Economics, for example, expect yields will fall further. They say monetary policy is likely to remain exceptionally loose for a lot longer than many market participants think, with interest rates unlikely to rise until at least 2011. They also predict that deflationary pressure will intensify against a backdrop of rapidly slowing economic growth and falling asset prices.
Other indicators from the bond markets suggest, however, that not everything is quite as benign as the message from the yields on big-economy nominal government bonds.
The yield on inflation-linked government bonds jumped last autumn as the financial crisis took hold. Because index-linked bonds strip out the effects of inflation expectations, they are arguably a better measure of investors’ confidence in governments’ ability to repay their debt – and that confidence is falling.
The suggestion from both nominal and real bond yields is therefore that investors expect inflation to plummet and want greater protection against default. The same message comes from the, admittedly thin, credit default swap market in sovereign debt where the cost of insuring against default has jumped for all advanced governments.
These market movements could easily represent a bubble in nominal government bond prices, as suggested by the Institute of International Finance, the trade organisation for the world’s largest banks, in its forecast for 2009. “It is hard to reconcile this bond market pricing with economic policies (both monetary and fiscal) designed to stimulate recovery,” the IIF argues. But even if the bond market movements are yet another example of inefficient market pricing, it is nonetheless somewhat unsettling that real interest rates have risen as governments started to borrow.
Smaller European countries, which are suddenly faced with much higher yields on their bonds than Germany even though they share the same currency, provide a second cause for concern.
At the end of 2007, the financing of government debt in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain was hardly more expensive than that of Germany. The difference in yields on 10-year benchmark bonds was greatest for Italy with a spread of 0.3 percentage points. But by the end of December 2008, those spreads had risen to a minimum of 0.8 percentage points for Spain, over 1 percentage point for Portugal and Italy and more than 2 percentage points for Greece.
Ten years since the launch of the euro, bond markets have started distinguishing markedly between different credit risks within the single currency area – limiting the scope for borrowing by the less creditworthy members.
A third reason for concern has been the faltering performance of bond auctions in recent weeks. Roger Brown, head of rates research at UBS, says: “In the UK, we saw a very poor bond auction only a few days after it announced its fiscal expansion plans in its pre-Budget report. To see difficulties so soon, before the very large amounts are issued this year, was an ominous sign, suggesting at some point governments may have to pay substantially higher interest rates to encourage investors to buy their bonds.”
But it is not just the UK that has struggled. All the main issuers have faced difficulties, with the cautious Germans no exception. In November a German bond auction failed when the amount raised fell short of its target. This is particularly worrying as Germany has one of the world’s biggest and most liquid bond markets. The Netherlands also failed to hit its target in an auction last month, while Belgium and Spain have cancelled offerings because of a lack of demand. Others such as the UK, France, Italy, Austria and Portugal have been forced to pay higher interest rates to encourage investors to buy bonds.
All these problems have come very early. The big tests will surely come this month, typically one of the heaviest for government bond issuance. Analysts expect a pipeline of about $150bn in Europe in January, nearly double the amount of past years. This heavy load will continue throughout the first quarter, with up to $350bn in bonds forecast to come to market. This is about $100bn more than 2008 and would beat all records for a first quarter.
As bond auction failures mount, Dresdner’s Mr Schaffrik says, the cost of issuing debt will rise: “At the moment, it is a question of price, not about investors refusing to buy. If you offer higher yields you can attract investors.”
To add to these concerns, a record amount of government-backed bank bonds are due to be issued this year, with estimates ranging to $2,000bn. These bonds will compete directly for investors with the governments themselves, as the guarantees give them the same risk-free status. The higher yields or interest rates they offer could encourage some investors to buy them instead of government bonds.
Meyrick Chapman at UBS says: “There is clearly a serious danger of crowding out ... with too many bonds chasing too few investors, especially for long maturities and lesser credits. There are only so many investors out there at present.”
With so much competition from governments for funds, other companies will be nervous before tapping the bond markets. As that potentially delays economic revival, authorities particularly in the US may ramp up outright official purchases of private sector debt to reduce borrowing costs. The aim would be to ensure a direct government stimulus to the economy, no crowding out of the private sector, economic recovery and a reduction in the risks of deflation.
Perversely, if all that is achieved, the point of recovery may be the crisis point for government bond markets. “As economic activity increases, it is then that nominal yields would likely rise, making overall debt interest payments more costly,” says Sean Shepley at Credit Suisse.
“You would expect tax revenues to start to improve and unemployment benefits to become less of a drain, so there would be some cyclical improvement in government finances. But it could still intensify pressure to cut the budget deficit in many countries.”
Amid all of this, deflation worries will have disappeared, policymakers will look at raising rather than cutting interest rates, there will be no more talk of printing money to buy corporate debt – and investors will switch to riskier assets and sell their safe government bonds.