Treasuries fall on expected Fed nomination
Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:51 PM ET
(Adds reaction to Bernanke, comments and two-year note auction announcement; updates prices)
NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices dipped on Monday on expectations White House economic adviser Ben Bernanke would be named later on Monday to head the U.S. Federal Reserve once Alan Greenspan retires early next year.
Some sources dismissed the price movements, saying they reflected generalized jitters that would accompany any succession at the U.S. central bank.
"Right now you have Treasuries losing ground on the element of uncertainty in any transition -- though Bernanke is a known quantity and everyone knew we were losing Greenspan at the end of January," said John Canavan a bond market analyst at Stone and McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey. "Longer term, however, from a market perspective, Bernanke is seen as a good choice," Canavan added.
But an undercurrent of anxiety surrounding Bernanke and his history as an inflation targeter was also cited in the bond market, and traders and strategists said downward movement in prices was consistent with such worries.
Inflation targeters tie decision-making on interest rates to specific inflation levels. The practice worries some in the bond market because it can be overdependent on past inflation data instead of anticipating economic developments.
"The bottom line is that he's been wrong about what's happening with inflation for two years," said Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal in NEW YORK. "He's more focused on structural disinflation forces than he is on the cyclical inflationary forces from excessive accommodation," Stiles said.
Traders said the movement was across the yield curve, but was concentrated on longer-dated securities -- a reflection of market worries about risk an inflation targeter might not be able to keep inflation under control.
Benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) , which reflect longer-term inflation worries more than shorter-dated notes, fell 17/32 to yield 4.46 percent from 4.39 percent on Friday.
Trade on two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was much more subdued after the news of Bernanke's likely appointment. Prices were down 3/32 to yield 4.26 percent from 4.21 percent on Friday.
"They're not embracing this guy right out of the chute," said a bond trader at one of Wall Street's primary Treasuries dealers. "He's going to have to prove his mettle."
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 9/32 to yield 4.33 percent from 4.26 percent on Friday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) also moved more aggressively, sliding 1-5/32 for a yield of 4.68 percent from 4.60 percent.
Monday's losses did not move the market out of its recent ranges, though many in the market say they expect yields to keep trending higher, and prices lower, as the Fed's continuing fight to control inflation evolves.
"The broader direction remains fairly negative for bonds with downside for prices and upside for yields. I don't think last week's rally changed that. It was just a technical correction," said Canavan.
The White House said it would make an announcement at 1 p.m., and although it would not confirm the choice of Bernanke, a knowledgeable source told Reuters he would become the next Fed chairman.
In all the excitement surrounding Bernanke, the Treasury Department's announcement that it plans to offer $20 billion in two-year notes on Wednesday almost passed unnoticed