dan24 ha scritto:
La Banca Centrale Usa ha immesso nuova liquidità nel sistema bancario Usa attraverso un'operazione pronti contro termine da 20 miliardi di dollari a 7 giorni. La domanda da parte degli investitori è stata pari a 51,55 miliardi di dollari.
e vai con la stamperia...
io una cosa mi domando...noi in europa l'euro così forte fa da controparte alle commodities alle stelle....quindi frena l'inflazione...soprattutto per il petrolio scambiato in usd...
ma negli Usd mika si producono tutto in casa..cioè le materie prime anche loro le importanto anche se in maniera minore dell'area euro...
quindi con la svalutazione del dollaro da una parte è vero che migliarano la bilancia commericiale...ma dall'altra si portano in casa tanta inflazione...ed alla fine non avranno spazi di manovra neanche loro sui tassi...se non quelli di alzarli
Giusto per spiegare...
(si chiede a Cé di tradurre per dan
)
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy
Just a note - The Hussman Funds generally pay their required capital gains distributions during November, which I expect to represent in the area of about 4% of each Fund's net asset value. The net asset value of each Fund, of course, declines by the amount of the distribution on the ex-day (thus reducing later capital gains liability). In the Strategic Growth Fund, the entire distribution is expected to be long-term in nature. In the Strategic Total Return Fund, the distribution is expected to be about half long-term and half short-term in nature. In both cases, the distribution is expected to be less than the one-year appreciation in the Funds, so investors trading to avoid the distribution would generally increase their tax liability.
There's a lot of misunderstanding about mutual fund distributions. Investors seem not to take into account the tax impact of the offsetting reduction in NAV. If you work through the math, you'll find that when a distribution is partly long-term in nature, the true “tax cost” of taking the distribution is negative for short-term holders, meaning that they have an incentive to hold the Fund in order to capture the distribution. Meanwhile, long-term holders have no incentive to avoid a distribution if they have more than minimal unrealized gains. Potential long-term investors may have a modest incentive to defer investment until the distribution is paid, but only if the Fund's return during the deferral period is expected to be small.
Pump it up
Last week, the Associated Press reported: “The Federal Reserve pumped $41 billion into the U.S. financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001, to help companies get through a credit crunch… it was the largest single day of operations since $50.35 billion was pumped into the system on Sept. 19, 2001, following the terror strikes on New York and Washington. Since August, the Fed has been pumping cash into the financial system to help ease strains from the credit crunch.”
Wow. You can almost hear the pumps. That sounds like an impressive and calculated example of the Fed moving to intervene in order to ensure the solvency of our markets. Various reports said the injection was intended “to help stem the deepening crisis in the mortgage markets.” Some even suggested it was a “Citigroup bailout.”
The truth is that the entire $41 billion was nothing more than a predictable rollover of existing repurchases to maintain a stagnant $40-$45 billion pool of bank reserves – a pool that experiences almost no variation over time and has no material relationship with the volume of bank lending.
If you examine the NY Fed's releases on open market operations, you'll find that in fact, the Fed drained $1.5 billion in reserves on Thursday. Specifically, a total of $42.5 billion of temporary repurchase agreements came due on November 1, only $41 billion which were rolled over. The expiring repos were: a $5.5 billion 1-day repo from October 31, a $12 billion 2-day repo from October 30, a $19 billion 7-day repo from October 25, and a $6 billion 14-day repo from October 18. Those repos, in turn, were rollovers of prior repos, and so on.
Fed Open Market Operations:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/openmarket.html
Total Discount Window Borrowings:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TOTBORR.txt
Total Bank Reserves:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TRARR.txt
The Fed has injected no “liquidity” at all into the banking system for months. As of Friday, there were a total of $41.25 billion in repurchase agreements outstanding, $3.5 billion less than at the end of September, though $2.75 billion more than at the end of August. That's the range of variation that the Fed has been managing. The total amount of outstanding repurchases has ranged between $40-$45 billion in recent months, only modestly above the average for the year as a whole. Meanwhile, the total amount that the Fed has lent to banks through the discount window fell again last week, to $283 million. Contrast that with $6 trillion in total bank loans outstanding, and you get the point.
If you tie out the repos currently outstanding, you'll find that $27 billion will come due again this Thursday, November 8. Depending on what the Fed does with 1-3 day repos between now and then, we could see another huge apparent “intervention” on Thursday. Some investors will be happy to imagine that the Fed has their back. Some will be frightened to think that the Fed must be very concerned to make such large “injections of liquidity” two weeks in a row. The truth is that we'll be observing a meaningless, automatic, predictable rollover of existing repos. ]
In the coming months, it will be increasingly important not to confuse growth in aggregates like money market balances and M2 with Fed-induced liquidity. We continue to observe shrinkage in the commercial paper and asset backed debt markets. As these obligations come due, they must either go unfinanced, or they will have to be financed through other types of debt. As I've noted before, banks will most likely be the chosen intermediary, not only as a place for investors to deposit their savings as an alternative to holding riskier securities, but also as a place for borrowers to obtain alternative financing. As a result, the shrinkage in the commercial paper market will be matched by an expansion in bank financing. This will not be new “money creation” but replacement financing through an alternative intermediary. Moreover, the apparent “money on the sidelines” in banks and money market funds will not represent cash waiting to be deployed. It will represent claims on money that has already left the building and has long been spent. For a more complete discussion, see The "Money Flow" Myth and the "Liquidity" Trap .
bad dan boy 
