bund, t-bond t-note ecc SOLO LONG FOR EVER
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
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shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
i norvegesi hanno alzato di 0,25 non fatelo sapere al Bund
*DJ Norway Central Bank Hikes Key Rate 25BP To 2.00%
i norvegesi hanno alzato di 0,25 non fatelo sapere al Bund
*DJ Norway Central Bank Hikes Key Rate 25BP To 2.00%
Fleursdumal
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U.S. Treasuries Poised for Best Quarter Since 2002 as Fed Meets
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries are headed for their best quarterly performance since 2002 as investors gain more confidence that the Federal Reserve has inflation under control.
The central bank finishes a two-day meeting today where it is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a year. Ten-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to their prices, fell below 4 percent last week for the second time this month.
``There's fair value where they are,'' Dan Dektar, chief investment officer at Smith Breeden Associates in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, said of yields. ``The Fed may refer to inflation expectations coming down.''
The yield on the 10-year note was unchanged at 3.98 percent by 8 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield last touched 4 percent on June 22 and is down from 4.69 percent a year ago, when the Fed started raising its target rate for overnight loans between banks.
The price of the 4 1/8 percent note maturing May 2015 was little changed at to 101 1/8. The note, whose yield is a benchmark for corporate and consumer borrowing costs such as mortgages, is headed for its third straight monthly gain.
Treasuries have returned 3.4 percent since March, including reinvested interest, compared with a 0.4 percent loss last quarter, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Treasury Master Index. The performance is the best since they returned 7.2 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, 2002.
Policy makers will lift their benchmark rate today to 3.25 percent from 3 percent, and to at least 3.75 percent by year- end, according to a majority of Wall Street's biggest bond dealers, a Bloomberg survey shows. The ninth straight increase would be the longest such stretch since 1979, when Jimmy Carter was president.
``We still think the Fed will take rates up to 4.25 percent by the end of the year, and that they don't have too many worries about the economy,'' said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed- income strategist in London at BNP Paribas, whose U.S. unit trades directly with the Federal Reserve's New York branch. ``The risk is for a move higher in yields.''
`Slightly Bearish'
Yields may also rise after oil prices fell to a two-week low, easing concern energy costs will crimp spending.
``We continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates two or three more times this year,'' said Yoshihiro Ishida, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $2.8 billion at Meiji Dresdner Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``We are cautious and slightly bearish on Treasuries.''
Ishida said the average duration of his Treasury holdings is shorter than that of the benchmark he uses to compare performance, the Citigroup World Government Bond Index. Duration is a weighted average maturity of bonds.
Crude oil prices are down more than 6 percent from their record of $60.95 a barrel reached on June 27. The contract traded at $57.30 a barrel today.
Any declines in 10-year notes may be tempered by expectations the Institute for Supply Management will report tomorrow that U.S. manufacturing failed to quicken in June. The ISM's index has dropped for six straight months and probably held at a two-year low in June, according to the median forecast.
Yield Forecast
``The moderation in the ISM index is probably not really finished yet,'' said Peter Munckton, a Sydney-based debt market strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the country's biggest bank. ``There may be some further softness in yields to come. In the near term, we are positive on Treasuries.''
The 10-year yield will probably fall to 3.8 percent in the next month, Munckton said.
The Commerce Department may report today that consumer spending and income growth slowed last month. Spending rose 0.1 percent in May, the smallest increase since January, Bloomberg's survey suggests. Incomes probably increased 0.3 percent last month, after a 0.7 percent gain in April, the survey showed.
Treasuries briefly rose yesterday after the department lifted its estimate of first-quarter economic growth while also reducing a measure of inflation. The economy expanded an annualized 3.8 percent last quarter.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure tied to consumer spending that excludes food and energy, rose 2 percent, down from the 2.2 percent estimated last month. The Fed uses this figure in its semi-annual forecasts.
Consumer Spending
Today's consumer spending report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. in Washington, includes the PCE index for May.
Treasuries rose the day the Fed last raised rates on May 3 after the central bank said it forgot to add to its policy statement that longer-term inflation expectations are ``well- contained.''
Some investors initially sold Treasuries that day as the absence of the phrase raised concern the Fed was more worried about accelerating inflation.
September Eurodollar futures yielded 3.83 percent, up from 3.68 percent on June 1, showing traders are boosting expectations for Fed rate increases this year.
The futures settle at a three-month lending rate that has averaged 21 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries are headed for their best quarterly performance since 2002 as investors gain more confidence that the Federal Reserve has inflation under control.
The central bank finishes a two-day meeting today where it is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a year. Ten-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to their prices, fell below 4 percent last week for the second time this month.
``There's fair value where they are,'' Dan Dektar, chief investment officer at Smith Breeden Associates in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, said of yields. ``The Fed may refer to inflation expectations coming down.''
The yield on the 10-year note was unchanged at 3.98 percent by 8 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield last touched 4 percent on June 22 and is down from 4.69 percent a year ago, when the Fed started raising its target rate for overnight loans between banks.
The price of the 4 1/8 percent note maturing May 2015 was little changed at to 101 1/8. The note, whose yield is a benchmark for corporate and consumer borrowing costs such as mortgages, is headed for its third straight monthly gain.
Treasuries have returned 3.4 percent since March, including reinvested interest, compared with a 0.4 percent loss last quarter, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Treasury Master Index. The performance is the best since they returned 7.2 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, 2002.
Policy makers will lift their benchmark rate today to 3.25 percent from 3 percent, and to at least 3.75 percent by year- end, according to a majority of Wall Street's biggest bond dealers, a Bloomberg survey shows. The ninth straight increase would be the longest such stretch since 1979, when Jimmy Carter was president.
``We still think the Fed will take rates up to 4.25 percent by the end of the year, and that they don't have too many worries about the economy,'' said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed- income strategist in London at BNP Paribas, whose U.S. unit trades directly with the Federal Reserve's New York branch. ``The risk is for a move higher in yields.''
`Slightly Bearish'
Yields may also rise after oil prices fell to a two-week low, easing concern energy costs will crimp spending.
``We continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates two or three more times this year,'' said Yoshihiro Ishida, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $2.8 billion at Meiji Dresdner Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``We are cautious and slightly bearish on Treasuries.''
Ishida said the average duration of his Treasury holdings is shorter than that of the benchmark he uses to compare performance, the Citigroup World Government Bond Index. Duration is a weighted average maturity of bonds.
Crude oil prices are down more than 6 percent from their record of $60.95 a barrel reached on June 27. The contract traded at $57.30 a barrel today.
Any declines in 10-year notes may be tempered by expectations the Institute for Supply Management will report tomorrow that U.S. manufacturing failed to quicken in June. The ISM's index has dropped for six straight months and probably held at a two-year low in June, according to the median forecast.
Yield Forecast
``The moderation in the ISM index is probably not really finished yet,'' said Peter Munckton, a Sydney-based debt market strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the country's biggest bank. ``There may be some further softness in yields to come. In the near term, we are positive on Treasuries.''
The 10-year yield will probably fall to 3.8 percent in the next month, Munckton said.
The Commerce Department may report today that consumer spending and income growth slowed last month. Spending rose 0.1 percent in May, the smallest increase since January, Bloomberg's survey suggests. Incomes probably increased 0.3 percent last month, after a 0.7 percent gain in April, the survey showed.
Treasuries briefly rose yesterday after the department lifted its estimate of first-quarter economic growth while also reducing a measure of inflation. The economy expanded an annualized 3.8 percent last quarter.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure tied to consumer spending that excludes food and energy, rose 2 percent, down from the 2.2 percent estimated last month. The Fed uses this figure in its semi-annual forecasts.
Consumer Spending
Today's consumer spending report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. in Washington, includes the PCE index for May.
Treasuries rose the day the Fed last raised rates on May 3 after the central bank said it forgot to add to its policy statement that longer-term inflation expectations are ``well- contained.''
Some investors initially sold Treasuries that day as the absence of the phrase raised concern the Fed was more worried about accelerating inflation.
September Eurodollar futures yielded 3.83 percent, up from 3.68 percent on June 1, showing traders are boosting expectations for Fed rate increases this year.
The futures settle at a three-month lending rate that has averaged 21 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.
ditropan
Forumer storico
arseniolupin ha scritto:capito dan
tu vuoi sapere quanto rendeva il bund decennale 3 anni fa , 4 anni fa ieri e oggi ....
ora vedo se riesco a tirarlo fuori
spiet ce guardo
mi pare che il codice per i rendimenti sul bund sia RX1 con bloomberg ... se può servire.
Fleursdumal
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f4f ha scritto:
io son più ferrato su altri argomenti del nineeleven , sull'intelligence non ho nè materiale nè link, sorry
f4f
翠鸟科
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