ovvio che valutate bene tutte le componenti del philadelphia fed index dovessero scattare gli acquisti , i fedfunds danno al 76% la possibilità di rialzo tassi di 25 punti base a settembre, in rialzo dal 70% di mercoledì.
Conta sì il petrolio, altro che no...
U.S. Treasuries forge ahead as Philly Fed falters
(Updates prices, comments; changes dateline from NEW YORK)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Thursday after the Philadelphia Fed showed weaker regional factory activity, including a steep drop in new orders, adding to concerns that an economic soft patch may last for awhile.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of U.S. mid-Atlantic manufacturing for August fell to 28.5 from 36.1 in July.
It was well below the forecast for a drop to 32.0. However, several analysts had looked for an index near 20, with whisper numbers as low as 10 after a sharp drop in the New York Fed's "Empire State" index on Monday.
Some components of the Philadelphia index, such as new orders, shipments and unfilled orders, were termed weaker than the headline number. Orders for new goods dropped to 19.2 in August from 35.3 in July, a warning that future demand for industrial products may slow.
"This is some evidence that at least according to the purchasing managers, the soft patch is extending into August," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> rose 5/32 for a yield of 4.22 percent, down from 4.24 percent late Wednesday, but above Wednesday's four-month low of 4.15 percent.
The surge in crude oil futures prices to another record high, above $48.00 per barrel, also kept a bid in the bond market by threatening to slow U.S. and global growth.
Still, dealers expect inflation and jobs to be the main factors swaying the Federal Reserve going into September monetary policy deliberations.
Fed funds futures show a 76 percent chance the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September, up from 70 percent on Wednesday, but have barely moved in the past week.
With Treasury yields near four-month lows, dealers are wary of convexity buying from the mortgage sector to hedge against mortgage prepayments.
The recent dip in home-loan interest rates has created a mini-boom of mortgage refinancing. The mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac on Thursday said 30-year mortgage rates slipped to 5.81 percent, the lowest since early April.
Bonds were little moved by the day's other data. Weekly initial jobless claims slipped to 331,000 from a revised 334,000, but could jump next week due to the delayed impact of Hurricane Charley.
Analysts said the claims were consistent with payroll gains in August in the range of 150,000 to 200,000, up from July's surprisingly low 32,000.
Leading economic indicators for July eased by 0.3 percent, more than expected. June's result was revised to -0.1 percent from -0.2 percent.
The index has fallen for two straight months for the first time since early 2003, when economic activity was suppressed by jitters before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
"The recent weakness in the index of leading indicators suggests that economic growth will be modest over the next six to nine months," said Steven Wood, economist at Insight Economics.
The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> rose 7/32 to yield 5.03 percent, down from 5.04 percent on Wednesday. Five-year notes <US5YT=RR> rose 4/32 to yield 3.39 percent, down from 3.42 percent the previous day.
Two-year Treasuries <US2YT=RR> rose 1/32 for a yield of 2.41 percent, down from 2.43 percent.