Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (1 Viewer)
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Madiba
Forumer storico
shabib
Forumer storico
CARO MADIBA
: per la serie : meglio avele un po' di olo a calo plezzo che calta velde che non vale un clazzo.....
f4f
翠鸟科
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
io trovo che gli occhiali diano un'aria molto intellettuale..
voi che dite ?
...buon weend a tutti
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Madiba
Forumer storico
Buon we a tutti
October 10
weekend update
REVIEW
Economic reports were generally positive this week and the US market rallied every day. ISM services moved marginally over 50%, consumer credit declined less than last month, as did wholesale inventories. Also, the weekly jobless claims declined along with the trade deficit. For the week the SPX/DOW were +4.3%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 4.2%. Asian markets rose 2.6%, Europe was 3.8% higher and Commodity equities were +7.0%. Bonds lost 0.8%, Crude gained 3.3%, Gold was +4.6% and the USD declined against most major currencies. In the previous week economic reports were less promising and the market declined nearly every day. After a 62% rally, from extremely oversold levels, in just seven months, the market has priced in a V-shaped recovery. The market is now sensitive to these economic reports.
LONG TERM: bear market
After a five year bull market (2002-2007) when the market gained 105%, it was all wiped out and more, in just seventeen months (Oct07-Mar09). The market lost 58% of its value in that short period of time, and the SPX reached levels not seen since 1996. This sharp decline created the most oversold condition in many decades. Historically, even in the major bear markets of the 20th century, markets bounced from extremely oversold levels. After the 1929 crash the market rallied 52% in just five months, only to head much much lower before that bear market ended. Then in the 1937-1942 bear market, after the DOW lost over 50% of its value, it rallied 63% over the next eight months before heading back to its lows. Knowing that this can occur during a major bear market. We tracked the entire seventeen month decline awaiting a completed wave pattern, and the opportunity for an explosive counter trend bear market rally. In early Mar 09 a zigzag pattern from the Oct 07 bull market top completed. With the SPX hovering around the 700 level we projected that the potential now existed for a 50% bear market retracement rally, and gave it a target of SPX 1122. It was considered an outrageous projection at the time as almost everyone was bearish. Knowing the history of how major bear markets unfold was the key. Historically, these types of bear markets unfold in three waves: a Primary wave A decline, a Primary wave B counter rally, then a Primary wave C decline. The 1929-1932 and 1937-1942 major bear markets described above are the examples. These two bear markets are the only two periods in the past century when the stock market lost over 50% of its value on the initial decline. The 1973-1974 bear market came close with a 47% decline. When Primary wave B concludes this bear market will either retest its lows, or drop even lower. The 1929 bear market took 34 months to unfold, and the 1937 bear market took 60 months. We're currently in the 24th month of our bear market.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
Primary wave A unfolded in a zigzag (5-3-5). Major wave A contained the first five waves ending Mar 08 at SPX 1257. Major wave B ended May 08 at SPX 1440. Major wave C, completing Primary A, contained five waves ending Mar 09 at SPX 667. Primary wave B is also unfolding as a zigzag. Major wave A ended Jun 09 at SPX 956. Major wave B ended Jly 09 at SPX 869. Major wave C continues to unfold. When Major wave C completes, so too should Primary wave B, and then Primary wave C should be underway.
When zigzags unfold the internal wave structure of both the A and C waves should be similar. We observed this during Primary wave A, when both waves were detailed five wave structures. Therefore, the internal structure of the A and C waves of Primary B should be similar as well. We had been tracking an internal wave structure during Major wave A which worked quite well. During Major wave C we, of course, were tracking the same type of internal structure. A week ago that internal structure deviated when the market broke below SPX 1039. At first we thought there was a wave failure, or an ending diagonal underway. Those possibilities were resolved this week, when we identfied an internal wave structure that fit both Major wave A and Major wave C, including that SPX 1039 breakdown. We detailed this structure in a special report mid-week and updated both the SPX and DOW charts. Occasionally internal wave structures within a trend can morph into a slight variable of the obvious structure. This is why we project, monitor, and adjust when required. The important areas to observe during this uptrend are the OEW pivots at SPX 1090, 1107 and 1133. SPX 1107 is the more important of the three since it's a long term pivot. We made some fibonacci comparisons between the internal waves of both Major A and C in the special report. These fibonacci relationships also fit within the three pivots noted. Also of note, during the past two decades important turning points have occurred in March and October. A quick review of monthly charts will reveal this phenomenon.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1061 and then 1041, with resistance at 1090 and then 1107. Short term momentum spent most of the week in overbought territory and now displays a negative RSI divergence. We're expecting this last rally to unfold in five waves, as have all the rallies during both Major waves A and C. From the SPX 1020 Minor wave B low the market rallied impulsively to SPX 1072 on friday. This appears to be most of wave one of the expected five wave structure. Notice the last rally, SPX 992 to 1080, also unfolded in five waves and wave one displayed a similar structure and negative RSI divergence. Monday should provide us with the answer to they current setup. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mostly higher displaying a gain of 2.6% on the week. The only decliner was India's BSE (-2.9%). All but Japan's NIKK remain in uptrends.
The European markets were all higher for a gain of 3.8%. All five indices, we added three this week (IBEX, SMI and Euro50), are in uptrends.
The Commodity equity markets were all higher, led by Russia's RTSI (+12.0%), for an average 7.0% gain. All three indices remain in uptrends.
COMMODITIES
Bonds lost 0.8% on the week, remain in an uptrend, but look like they may have topped. 10YR yields reached 3.10%, close to our downside target.
Crude gained 3.3% on the week, remains in a downtrend, but has been moving up from the $65 level. Should be an important week for Crude.
Gold made new all time highs as it gained 4.6% on the week. Both Gold and Silver remain in uptrends.
The USD (-0.8%) lost against the EUR (+1.1%) and the JPY (+0.0). The USD and EUR are both close to their trend targets, and the JPY appears to have ended its uptrend.
NEXT WEEK
The week starts off quietly enough with monday a FED holiday. On wednesday Retail sales, Inventories, the Import price index and the FOMC minutes kick off the reporting. Thursday, we have the weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, Empire state index and the Philly FED. Then friday, Industrial production, Consumer sentiment and Options expiration. As for the FED. On tuesday FED vice chairman Kohn gives a speech in St. Louis, and on wednesday FED governor Tarullo testifies before the Senate. Best to your week!
CHARTS: Public Chart Lists - StockCharts.com
October 10
weekend update
REVIEW
Economic reports were generally positive this week and the US market rallied every day. ISM services moved marginally over 50%, consumer credit declined less than last month, as did wholesale inventories. Also, the weekly jobless claims declined along with the trade deficit. For the week the SPX/DOW were +4.3%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 4.2%. Asian markets rose 2.6%, Europe was 3.8% higher and Commodity equities were +7.0%. Bonds lost 0.8%, Crude gained 3.3%, Gold was +4.6% and the USD declined against most major currencies. In the previous week economic reports were less promising and the market declined nearly every day. After a 62% rally, from extremely oversold levels, in just seven months, the market has priced in a V-shaped recovery. The market is now sensitive to these economic reports.
LONG TERM: bear market
After a five year bull market (2002-2007) when the market gained 105%, it was all wiped out and more, in just seventeen months (Oct07-Mar09). The market lost 58% of its value in that short period of time, and the SPX reached levels not seen since 1996. This sharp decline created the most oversold condition in many decades. Historically, even in the major bear markets of the 20th century, markets bounced from extremely oversold levels. After the 1929 crash the market rallied 52% in just five months, only to head much much lower before that bear market ended. Then in the 1937-1942 bear market, after the DOW lost over 50% of its value, it rallied 63% over the next eight months before heading back to its lows. Knowing that this can occur during a major bear market. We tracked the entire seventeen month decline awaiting a completed wave pattern, and the opportunity for an explosive counter trend bear market rally. In early Mar 09 a zigzag pattern from the Oct 07 bull market top completed. With the SPX hovering around the 700 level we projected that the potential now existed for a 50% bear market retracement rally, and gave it a target of SPX 1122. It was considered an outrageous projection at the time as almost everyone was bearish. Knowing the history of how major bear markets unfold was the key. Historically, these types of bear markets unfold in three waves: a Primary wave A decline, a Primary wave B counter rally, then a Primary wave C decline. The 1929-1932 and 1937-1942 major bear markets described above are the examples. These two bear markets are the only two periods in the past century when the stock market lost over 50% of its value on the initial decline. The 1973-1974 bear market came close with a 47% decline. When Primary wave B concludes this bear market will either retest its lows, or drop even lower. The 1929 bear market took 34 months to unfold, and the 1937 bear market took 60 months. We're currently in the 24th month of our bear market.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
Primary wave A unfolded in a zigzag (5-3-5). Major wave A contained the first five waves ending Mar 08 at SPX 1257. Major wave B ended May 08 at SPX 1440. Major wave C, completing Primary A, contained five waves ending Mar 09 at SPX 667. Primary wave B is also unfolding as a zigzag. Major wave A ended Jun 09 at SPX 956. Major wave B ended Jly 09 at SPX 869. Major wave C continues to unfold. When Major wave C completes, so too should Primary wave B, and then Primary wave C should be underway.
When zigzags unfold the internal wave structure of both the A and C waves should be similar. We observed this during Primary wave A, when both waves were detailed five wave structures. Therefore, the internal structure of the A and C waves of Primary B should be similar as well. We had been tracking an internal wave structure during Major wave A which worked quite well. During Major wave C we, of course, were tracking the same type of internal structure. A week ago that internal structure deviated when the market broke below SPX 1039. At first we thought there was a wave failure, or an ending diagonal underway. Those possibilities were resolved this week, when we identfied an internal wave structure that fit both Major wave A and Major wave C, including that SPX 1039 breakdown. We detailed this structure in a special report mid-week and updated both the SPX and DOW charts. Occasionally internal wave structures within a trend can morph into a slight variable of the obvious structure. This is why we project, monitor, and adjust when required. The important areas to observe during this uptrend are the OEW pivots at SPX 1090, 1107 and 1133. SPX 1107 is the more important of the three since it's a long term pivot. We made some fibonacci comparisons between the internal waves of both Major A and C in the special report. These fibonacci relationships also fit within the three pivots noted. Also of note, during the past two decades important turning points have occurred in March and October. A quick review of monthly charts will reveal this phenomenon.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1061 and then 1041, with resistance at 1090 and then 1107. Short term momentum spent most of the week in overbought territory and now displays a negative RSI divergence. We're expecting this last rally to unfold in five waves, as have all the rallies during both Major waves A and C. From the SPX 1020 Minor wave B low the market rallied impulsively to SPX 1072 on friday. This appears to be most of wave one of the expected five wave structure. Notice the last rally, SPX 992 to 1080, also unfolded in five waves and wave one displayed a similar structure and negative RSI divergence. Monday should provide us with the answer to they current setup. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mostly higher displaying a gain of 2.6% on the week. The only decliner was India's BSE (-2.9%). All but Japan's NIKK remain in uptrends.
The European markets were all higher for a gain of 3.8%. All five indices, we added three this week (IBEX, SMI and Euro50), are in uptrends.
The Commodity equity markets were all higher, led by Russia's RTSI (+12.0%), for an average 7.0% gain. All three indices remain in uptrends.
COMMODITIES
Bonds lost 0.8% on the week, remain in an uptrend, but look like they may have topped. 10YR yields reached 3.10%, close to our downside target.
Crude gained 3.3% on the week, remains in a downtrend, but has been moving up from the $65 level. Should be an important week for Crude.
Gold made new all time highs as it gained 4.6% on the week. Both Gold and Silver remain in uptrends.
The USD (-0.8%) lost against the EUR (+1.1%) and the JPY (+0.0). The USD and EUR are both close to their trend targets, and the JPY appears to have ended its uptrend.
NEXT WEEK
The week starts off quietly enough with monday a FED holiday. On wednesday Retail sales, Inventories, the Import price index and the FOMC minutes kick off the reporting. Thursday, we have the weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, Empire state index and the Philly FED. Then friday, Industrial production, Consumer sentiment and Options expiration. As for the FED. On tuesday FED vice chairman Kohn gives a speech in St. Louis, and on wednesday FED governor Tarullo testifies before the Senate. Best to your week!
CHARTS: Public Chart Lists - StockCharts.com