Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69)
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- Data di Inizio
quicksilver
Forumer storico
nessuno dice nulla sul memorial day e sull'independence day
(borsa italiana aperta il 2 giugno)
(borsa italiana aperta il 2 giugno)
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
La chiusura di venerdi è stata causata anche dal memorial day... ne parlo se riesco sul blog..
quicksilver
Forumer storico
Ipotesi
per ora è solo un ipotesi (non è ancora un segnale) ed è solo sul nostro FIB attenzione, ma può essere interessante
http://www.maintrendanalysis.com/joomla/images/fbfiles/images/fib_28_MAG_2010_d.PNG
per ora è solo un ipotesi (non è ancora un segnale) ed è solo sul nostro FIB attenzione, ma può essere interessante
http://www.maintrendanalysis.com/joomla/images/fbfiles/images/fib_28_MAG_2010_d.PNG
quicksilver
Forumer storico
quicksilver
Forumer storico
lo segnalo solo perchè dopo molti mesi è tornato a scrivere, Nicola Pistoresi Commenti quotidiani sui mercati
Metatarso
Forumer storico
oggi ZeroScemo commenta Bini Smaghi
ovviamente è come un maiale che si mette la cravatta
quindi andate direttamente a Bini Smaghi
una buona lettura, in particolare questo pezzo:
ECB: Challenges for the Euro Area, and the World Economy
Let me digress briefly on this point. Some may think that the fact that the ECB cannot use the inflation tax to bail out Governments is a weakness of the euro area’s construction, because it obliges some countries to make fiscal adjustments earlier than others. In my view, this is a strength. To believe that an inflation tax can solve the problem posed by the mounting public debt is an illusion that some people like to cultivate. For several reasons. First, people are less naïve than some might think – they dislike an inflation tax as much as other forms of fiscal adjustment. Second, it’s not so easy to generate inflation, in particular ‘surprise’ inflation, without provoking a more-than-proportional increase in interest rates, also in light of the short average maturity of public debt in most countries. Third, a rise in inflation, and inflation expectations, would produce a major upward shift in the yield curve, inflicting major losses on the banks and financial institutions which have been heavily investing in these markets, potentially undermining the recovery.
In short, the impossibility of resorting to an inflation tax is forcing euro area countries to tackle the burden of public debt sooner rather than later. In other countries the illusion of being able to resort to the inflation tax might delay the adjustment, but the longer the treatment is postponed the harsher it’s likely to be. End of digression.
per un banchiere centrale, direi che è un pezzo da 10 e lode, e bacio accademico
spettacolare l'allusione a USA e UK
ovviamente è come un maiale che si mette la cravatta
quindi andate direttamente a Bini Smaghi
una buona lettura, in particolare questo pezzo:
ECB: Challenges for the Euro Area, and the World Economy
Let me digress briefly on this point. Some may think that the fact that the ECB cannot use the inflation tax to bail out Governments is a weakness of the euro area’s construction, because it obliges some countries to make fiscal adjustments earlier than others. In my view, this is a strength. To believe that an inflation tax can solve the problem posed by the mounting public debt is an illusion that some people like to cultivate. For several reasons. First, people are less naïve than some might think – they dislike an inflation tax as much as other forms of fiscal adjustment. Second, it’s not so easy to generate inflation, in particular ‘surprise’ inflation, without provoking a more-than-proportional increase in interest rates, also in light of the short average maturity of public debt in most countries. Third, a rise in inflation, and inflation expectations, would produce a major upward shift in the yield curve, inflicting major losses on the banks and financial institutions which have been heavily investing in these markets, potentially undermining the recovery.
In short, the impossibility of resorting to an inflation tax is forcing euro area countries to tackle the burden of public debt sooner rather than later. In other countries the illusion of being able to resort to the inflation tax might delay the adjustment, but the longer the treatment is postponed the harsher it’s likely to be. End of digression.
per un banchiere centrale, direi che è un pezzo da 10 e lode, e bacio accademico
spettacolare l'allusione a USA e UK
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
[SIZE=+0]Brief comment on money supply[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]TMS, the best measure of US money supply, maintains a 12-month rate of change in excess of 10%. This means that there is still a lot of monetary inflation happening in the US, thanks almost entirely to government borrowing and Fed monetisation of government -- including GSE -- debt. At the same time, relatively poor measures of money supply are showing monetary deflation. For example, M3 has been falling since mid-2009 and according to the chart at http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html is presently down by 9% on a year-over-year basis. Some journalists have recently cited the decline in M3 as a sign of a major deflation problem in the making.
M3 and M2 have little value as money supply indicators, but because they are widely watched they influence sentiment. Most importantly, they influence the sentiment of central bankers. As a result, the slow year-over-year growth rates of money-supply aggregates such as M3 and M2 could become part of the justification for even greater efforts to inflate. In other words, even though the money supply is growing rapidly (when measured correctly), if Bernanke and his cohorts believe that the money supply is growing slowly, or shrinking, then they will be encouraged to double their efforts on the inflation front.
Under the current monetary system, nothing promotes inflation more effectively than fear of deflation.
[/SIZE]
Metatarso
Forumer storico
Beh, una bella contraddizione in 2 frasi... secondo lui i banchieri centrali sono deficients?
Come già ho scritto, Trichet ad ogni conferenza dice che gli aggregati monetari sono in calo, ma non riflettono l'andamento del credito
Più di così, bisogna dirlo in dialetto, oh belin figioi?
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