Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
ingordi
aggiungerei, maledetti ingordi
ma si sa , una si dà e una si prende
stanno a giocarsi la fine mese coi prestiti bancari sulla BCE
e lo stress test bancario
resta à kuestione: i minimi sono già stati fatti ?
imho, sì ... 18500 environ sul nostrano
vediamo se i merkans, come al solito, vogliono fare à pazziata
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fresh fears over European bank sector
By David Oakley, Capital Markets Correspondent
Published: June 29 2010 13:34 | Last updated: June 29 2010 13:34
Fears rose over the health of the European banking system on Tuesday as interbank rates jumped to nine-month highs amid worries that the European Central Bank may be reducing emergency financial support to financial institutions too soon.
Key three-month euribor rates, which measure the cost at which banks are prepared to lend to each other, jumped to the highest level since September and the biggest one-day rise since April 28. Euribor rates rose to 0.761 per cent from 0.754 per cent.
Bankers warn that the ECB’s decision to offer banks loans for only three months instead of a year is raising concerns that many institutions will come under further pressure in the strained interbank markets.
Don Smith, economist at Icap, said: “There are major worries over the systemic risks for banks, with many struggling to access the private markets. The ECB is in effect weaning the banks off the artificial support system – and this is a concern.”
The ECB will on Wednesday offer unlimited loans to European banks for three months as it seeks to smooth funding for those banks that have to return one-year loans to the central bank on Thursday.
However, in spite of the vast amount of support the ECB is offering to the market, with more than €800bn in outstanding loans to eurozone banks, analysts say the fact the ECB is no longer offering loans for a year has worried some investors.
This is because the shorter-term loans create more dangers of so-called rollover risk. In other words, weaker banks relying on the ECB for lending as they struggle to access the private markets have less certainty over their financing than if they had the loans for a year.
By David Oakley, Capital Markets Correspondent
Published: June 29 2010 13:34 | Last updated: June 29 2010 13:34
Fears rose over the health of the European banking system on Tuesday as interbank rates jumped to nine-month highs amid worries that the European Central Bank may be reducing emergency financial support to financial institutions too soon.
Key three-month euribor rates, which measure the cost at which banks are prepared to lend to each other, jumped to the highest level since September and the biggest one-day rise since April 28. Euribor rates rose to 0.761 per cent from 0.754 per cent.
Bankers warn that the ECB’s decision to offer banks loans for only three months instead of a year is raising concerns that many institutions will come under further pressure in the strained interbank markets.
Don Smith, economist at Icap, said: “There are major worries over the systemic risks for banks, with many struggling to access the private markets. The ECB is in effect weaning the banks off the artificial support system – and this is a concern.”
The ECB will on Wednesday offer unlimited loans to European banks for three months as it seeks to smooth funding for those banks that have to return one-year loans to the central bank on Thursday.
However, in spite of the vast amount of support the ECB is offering to the market, with more than €800bn in outstanding loans to eurozone banks, analysts say the fact the ECB is no longer offering loans for a year has worried some investors.
This is because the shorter-term loans create more dangers of so-called rollover risk. In other words, weaker banks relying on the ECB for lending as they struggle to access the private markets have less certainty over their financing than if they had the loans for a year.
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
questa domanda me l'ha già fata Lapis ...avevo già avvertito col post #610 che poteva succedere qualcosa e mi ha detto che che non era sufficiente e non giustificava il salto da una candela a quella seguente ...
eccoti quello che gli ho risposto
non ce nulla da giustificare, il fatto che ( lo stacco dei dividendi o altro ) sia prima non conta molto, nel senso che i dati piu' pesanti sono gli ultimi...come in una media esponenziale vuol dire che quelli piu' vecchi pesano, come novità, sempre meno con l'arrivo dei nuovi.
L'algoritmo del prudente lavora su parametri che, ovviamente, al cambiare del mercato, variano.
Quest'algoritmo cambia il modo di pesarli ogni volta che gira, in modo da massimizzare la equity line ( sarebbe il profitto ) e adattare il TS alle variazioni del mercato.
Per cui capita, molto raramente, ma qualche volta succede, che un evento recente, influenzi l'inserzione della freccia.
Se vuoi puoi sbizzarrirti a spulciare la quasi ventennale storia de "il Prudente". Da molti anni è qua su I.O.
Insomma il TS mette la frecce in piena autonomia ecc ...fine risposta
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
The not-so-big roll-over, banks take €132bn at ECB’s 3M LTRO
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jun 30 10:22.
That’s very much below the consensus roll-over estimate of about €220bn – 250bn.
Which means (shock) eurozone banks are doing relatively alright, on the whole.
So, not with a bang, but a whimper come the results of the European Central Bank’s three-month Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) — the liquidity op meant to replace its €442bn 12-month LTRO, which expires tomorrow, Thursday. A total of €131.9bn was tapped from the central bank — which means just a third of the 12-month LTRO was rolled over into the three-month op.
Of course, that €132bn figure could well disguise discrepancies between banks. Spanish banks kicked up a fuss earlier this week about the 12-month expiry. BNP Paribas analysts estimate Spain’s cajas fund almost 21 per cent of their balance sheets with ECB-largess, and the big four Spanish banks 12 per cent.
It may be cheaper for most banks to fund themselves in the repo market, but probably not for everyone.
As for those money markets, that three-month LTRO figure can tell us something too. Most analysts estimate there’s something like €300bn worth of excess liquidity in the eurozone system, which means about €130 – 140bn needed to be rolled over just to maintain that excess liquidity.
Danske Bank explains:
But nevermind that, for now. Markets are rallying on this.
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jun 30 10:22.
That’s very much below the consensus roll-over estimate of about €220bn – 250bn.
Which means (shock) eurozone banks are doing relatively alright, on the whole.
So, not with a bang, but a whimper come the results of the European Central Bank’s three-month Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) — the liquidity op meant to replace its €442bn 12-month LTRO, which expires tomorrow, Thursday. A total of €131.9bn was tapped from the central bank — which means just a third of the 12-month LTRO was rolled over into the three-month op.
Of course, that €132bn figure could well disguise discrepancies between banks. Spanish banks kicked up a fuss earlier this week about the 12-month expiry. BNP Paribas analysts estimate Spain’s cajas fund almost 21 per cent of their balance sheets with ECB-largess, and the big four Spanish banks 12 per cent.
It may be cheaper for most banks to fund themselves in the repo market, but probably not for everyone.
As for those money markets, that three-month LTRO figure can tell us something too. Most analysts estimate there’s something like €300bn worth of excess liquidity in the eurozone system, which means about €130 – 140bn needed to be rolled over just to maintain that excess liquidity.
Danske Bank explains:
If excess liquidity falls below EUR 0bn (implying a roll well below EUR127bn), it could push EONIA rates higher as it would be a sign of less stress in the money markets. This would increase expectations that the ECB restores its exit strategy in Q4 10. A risk scenario, which we however find unlikely, is that the ECB could be forced to lower its main refinancing rate to push down EONIA rates.
Again, it’s kind of a darned-if-you-do-roll-over-less-than-expected and darned-if-you-don’t, in terms of money market rates like Eonia and Libor, anyway.
But nevermind that, for now. Markets are rallying on this.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
The not-so-big roll-over, banks take €132bn at ECB’s 3M LTRO
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jun 30 10:22.
That’s very much below the consensus roll-over estimate of about €220bn – 250bn.
Which means (shock) eurozone banks are doing relatively alright, on the whole.
So, not with a bang, but a whimper come the results of the European Central Bank’s three-month Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) — the liquidity op meant to replace its €442bn 12-month LTRO, which expires tomorrow, Thursday. A total of €131.9bn was tapped from the central bank — which means just a third of the 12-month LTRO was rolled over into the three-month op.
Of course, that €132bn figure could well disguise discrepancies between banks. Spanish banks kicked up a fuss earlier this week about the 12-month expiry. BNP Paribas analysts estimate Spain’s cajas fund almost 21 per cent of their balance sheets with ECB-largess, and the big four Spanish banks 12 per cent.
It may be cheaper for most banks to fund themselves in the repo market, but probably not for everyone.
As for those money markets, that three-month LTRO figure can tell us something too. Most analysts estimate there’s something like €300bn worth of excess liquidity in the eurozone system, which means about €130 – 140bn needed to be rolled over just to maintain that excess liquidity.
Danske Bank explains:
If excess liquidity falls below EUR 0bn (implying a roll well below EUR127bn), it could push EONIA rates higher as it would be a sign of less stress in the money markets. This would increase expectations that the ECB restores its exit strategy in Q4 10. A risk scenario, which we however find unlikely, is that the ECB could be forced to lower its main refinancing rate to push down EONIA rates.Again, it’s kind of a darned-if-you-do-roll-over-less-than-expected and darned-if-you-don’t, in terms of money market rates like Eonia and Libor, anyway.
But nevermind that, for now. Markets are rallying on this.
News con valore di roll over nettamente piu basso delle aspettative e iniziale reazione positiva del mercato.. solo che forse è fin troppo bassa ed allora c'è il rischio di una reazione sui mercati obbligazionari sia a breve che medio lungo termine... staremo a vedere.