Bund Tbond: choppers attack over EbenEm@il vm1727

[gipa69]

US crude inventories rise by less than expected in week to Feb 8 - EIA
Wed, Feb 13 2008, 15:49 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com



LONDON (Thomson Financial) - US crude inventories rose by less than expected in the week to Feb 8, according to the US Energy Information Administration.


Crude stocks rose by 1.1 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.1 mln barrel rise.


At 301.1 mln barrels, US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year, the EIA said.


Gasoline stock builds came in directly in line with analysts' expectations at 1.7 mln barrels.


Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell by less than predicted, dropping 100,000 barrels against expectations for a fall of 900,000 barrels. Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period.


Refineries meanwhile operated at 85.1 pct of their capacity, the EIA said, up 0.8 pct points from 84.3 pct in the previous week.


A nine-week fall in crude stocks over December and early January was a key factor in pushing crude stocks to an all-time high of 100.09 usd in the New Year.


Prices have since eased to around the 92 usd level, with rising stockpiles in America and fears of a global slowdown denting investor sentiment.


[email protected]


ds1/ds1/jlc




COPYRIGHT




Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

 

[gipa69]

Systemic Risk : Correlation at New High
Here we go:
Correlation on the five-year investment-grade Markit iTraxx Europe index - a measure of investor fears of a system-wide crash - reached new highs of 45 percent today.

Correlation sets a price on the market’s fear that a few bad apples will default versus its fear of an economic cataclysm.

The pricing is based on portfolios of credits, such as collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), which have been divided into tranches based on different degrees of default risk.

The riskiest slice, known as the equity tranche, is exposed to the first few defaults from any company in a portfolio. It is completely wiped out when losses reach 3 percent of portfolios.

Losses then move to the next tranche up. Tranches at the top of the ladder are typically rated triple-A. It would take a depression or worse for defaults to affect the top tranches of an investment-grade portfolio.

Correlation measures the relative value of the equity tranche against the triple-A tranche.

Over the past six months, the credit crisis and a low corporate default rate have pushed correlation up, which means the equity tranche has gained relative to the triple-A tranches.

Analysts at UBS, in a recent note to investors, said one reason was that banks and financial entities such as conduits, which accumulated billions of dollars of triple-A tranches of CDOs, have needed to unwind or hedge against those tranches.

“Now in a world where leverage has to come down, the pressure is on the piece that is the most leveraged, and that’s the super-senior tranches,” said UBS credit strategist Geraud Charpin.





Picture below, what happens to spreads when correlation increases, x-axis is correlation, y-axis spreads. As correlation moves towards 1, you are in a single bet and all spreads become equal…not fun to have a boatload of super senior swaps, me thinks.

 

[quicksilver]

Gipa, sempre per il discorso "siamo nel 1998 o nel 2001?"

il nuovo mercato non c'è piu, ma i titoli da nuovo mercato apparentemente si! ... (e anche i trader da nuovo mercato, vedi fol)
e stanno andando cosi:

http://csifinanza.investireoggi.it/...-dimenticare-cio’-che-e-stato-sara…-1933.html

 

[gipa69]

http://www.google.com/patents?vid=USPAT7263502

 

[gipa69]

Gipa, sempre per il discorso "siamo nel 1998 o nel 2001?"

il nuovo mercato non c'è piu, ma i titoli da nuovo mercato apparentemente si! ... (e anche i trader da nuovo mercato, vedi fol)
e stanno andando cosi:

http://csifinanza.investireoggi.it/...-dimenticare-cio’-che-e-stato-sara…-1933.html

Per capire se siamo nel 1998 o nel 2001 è difficile dirlo naturalmente, e ancora più difficile è capirlo dall'andamento dei titoli del nuovo mercato.
Anche perchè i titoli del nuovo mercato sono in pieno ciclo post bolla che come ben sai è un ciclo di lungo periodo, legato alla teoria dei survivor ecc.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Good evening a tout les bondaroles

situazione interessante su T-Bronx e spoore , ambedue sono a contatto con un gap superiore , chi c'entra per primo?

un pò di gnokka per l'avucat

 

[AnkleJoint]

Good evening a tout les bondaroles

situazione interessante su T-Bronx e spoore , ambedue sono a contatto con un gap superiore , chi c'entra per primo?

un pò di gnokka per l'avucat


Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.net/forum/immagini/120292517811.jpg

quale gap, quello del 5/2 ? consideralo già chiuso
ci ricorderemo dei minimi a 1280 e lo racconteremo ai nostri nipoti: "ah se fossi andato lungo allora"

 

[Fleursdumal]

vediamo se riesce a forare sti 1365 , ci siamo quasi e d'altronde anche il T-Bronx lo sta scontando

 

[feliceanima]

Sera volevo sapere se a voi tutti risulta che la settimana prossima ed anche l'altra ci sono altre info in merito alle banche amerricane tipo report e trimestrali con le nuove norme contabili made in USA .
Nel caso fosse positivo ricordo che il nuovo sistema e ancora piu' penalizzante nel mostrare
i dati societari a voi risulta la stessa cosa grazie

 

[f4f]

pagina 14

free again