Bond Ticker
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11:44 am - Bill Sale : The Fed is selling $15B of bills due May 8 through Jun 5/08 to remove the equivalent in cash permanently from the system.
11:19 am - Trade Slips. Light Flow : Treasuries should be able to hold the bulk of the bid, but repeated pushes better in indexes is going to put a dent in things. The market has plenty of supply to consider (including the possibility of significantly more that that $200B) while near-term data will likely be, at most, a speed bump. Trade will be looking out to the 1st of the new, new Fed liquidity tools with the kick off of the weekly TSLF Mar 27 at quarter end, although the details are still being worked out. (So what's next? A BALUOUT? SNFU?) BMO's Andy Busch notes there is little understanding of how the Fed's latest scheme will roll out, "the Fed needs to do a lot more education on explaining how this is going to work so dummies like me can understand." Yesterday he "called for no lasting positive US dollar impact by the Fed's new program. We have now traded back to the all time highs for the Euro and await further instructions from foreign central banks to buy more Euros."
11:16 am - Stalled Higher : The bonds were bid at the open but follow-through has been lacking. News of TSLF has been digested but restoring confidence to credit markets has a long way to go. Its success will likely be judged several months from now. Meanwhile, equities are adding to yesterday's gains and such a return to risk will be a drag on bonds with no other catalysts to lean against. Technically, the market needs to hold above yesterday's price lows (corresponding to below 3.63% on the 10-yr yield, approximately) to maintain Mar's positive bias.
10:39 am - Working It in Light Action : Trade is getting further push as trade recovers from yesterday's 400 blows and, as was seen in recent weeks and back in Jan, the 10-yr will likely find the 3.6% to 3.65% levels pretty sticky, maintaining some support. Prices will remain weighed on by stocks and supply, but size is light and lighter so mini-moves on rumors and other non-news will continue to pack more punch than warranted. The market is still getting small spits of bidding on the continuing rumors on hedgies and other strapped shops, but the ongoing nature of these items will likely mute the markets' response when and if a headline does pan out. The curve has resumed flattening with the 2-10-yr near the flattest since late Feb at 185.9.
10:37 am - Better But Sideways Still : The continuous 10-yr futures contract is trying to get back above the pivotal 117-15 level after surviving a pre-market re-test of yesterday's lows at 116-21. A push above sees a potential run to the week's top at 118-12+ while below suggests further corrective action.
10:12 am - Buck Back on Back : The dollar is getting sold as yesterday's rally provided yet another short opportunity. The yen managed to prevent a further run on its recent gains with trade caught up in equity gyrations, mixed data and the stalled BOJ gov nomination. While the prevailing sentiment looking for 100 has backed off following yesterday's selloff, the flight-to-quality/carry unwind is far from over. Dollar gains are likely to be limited with such little clarity and will need to see 103.50 to suggest an upside correction while support near 102.20 is propping things up for now. The euro chopped its way back up to test record highs now just below 1.5500 but has not been able to take that level out. Official talk and data were seen as supportive of a strong euro sending it on a good bounce off its 10-day moving average at 1.5280. The pound is selling off after another failed attempt to get meaningfully above 2.0200 trade remains locked between that level and 2.0000 with the bigger picture data dependent. The 08 budget offered few surprises. The dollar is back on its heels but has managed to fend off another round of selling at critical lows. Should those lows hold, yesterday's rally may see a re-play with more siding with a near-term correction. The calendar is non-existent so trade will eye technicals and equities for direction. The dollar index is bouncing on record lows near 72.50 while spot gold is grinding higher at 980.96 (+7.66). Crude is working back a bit up slightly to 108.94 (+.19).
09:36 am - Ticking Off : Bonds were backing off into the opening over in stock land, while twisting the curve flatter. The session will be left with little to do but watch stocks warily, considering supply on tap and keep eyeballing headlines. The spreads will be the dominant aspect plays and the push-pull-action will be running across the board, while better levels in global bonds should lend prices some support. Traders are still on edge looking for the next shoe, shoes or really, really expensive shoes to drop, getting all knee-jerk on unsubstantiated headlines, while debating the Fed's next play. Talk of lightening holdings in China and elsewhere, while nothing especially new, isn't a bonus for bonds.
09:07 am - Sitting Higher : The market is churning around here with little left to key off as the day's data don't count and the market will be looking to see how stocks respond to the morning-after the Fed's liquidity push. The market will hold some support on pure corrective action, but there remains supply to be dealt with (with more in the pipeline). Freddie Mac's chief coming out claiming the housing market is in the worst shape, like, ever, is good for a nudge, but not offering anything anyone wasn't becoming well (and painfully) aware of. The curve has twisted well steeper wiht the 2-10-yr yield spread now 189.
08:30 am - Perking Up : The market is getting a boost of the open but given yesterday's excessive sell-off that isn't unexpected. Not much has changed since the Fed announced its latest liquidity initiative and the euphoria carried over somewhat to the global stage dragging on treasuries overnight. Expectations for an aggressive rate cut next week have backed off a bit, which may take a bite out of the pop in equities providing support for bonds in an otherwise event-free day. The 2-10-yr yield spread continues to unwind steepeners at 186.0 with the short end bearing the brunt of the correction on diminished risk aversion and Fed action. Bond prices in the EuroZone are perking up but were initially hit by hotter inflation data and better industrial production in the region. In Japan, bonds were hit with equities better. Treasuries have a nearly empty calendar today but that hasn't stopped the market from bouncing around the last 2 sessions. With Fed announcements, ratings agencies and fund failures all making juicy headlines, the newswires are providing some grist to chew on. A reality check in equities could get things going too. Otherwise trade will look to lick its wounds from yesterday and reclaim as much as possible but with data due tomorrow and Fri not too much is expected. The buck has fallen back after the post-Fed liquidity move, while talk of lightend dollar holdings also weighs. Improved data out of the EuroZone and lessened rate cut expectations in the region boosted the euro back to 1.5476 just off the 1.5495 highs. The yen is heading back toward the 102.00 handle, as growth showed better than expected improvement in the last quarter. Gold is pulling better as the buck loses more ground with spot now 976.17 (+2.87) while crude is holding a touch lower into inventories, but remains near record levels at 108.63 (-0.12). Data due offers just the treasury budget late (14) with the Fed keeping tight lipped ahead of the FOMC.
07:30 am - Mortgage Applications : The weekly MBA mortgage applications index slipped -1.9% last week, led by refis which dropped -4.7% while purchasing applications were up 1.6%. The fixed 30-yr mortgage rate shot up to 6.37% (+39 basis points) while the 15-yr was up at 5.72% & 1-yr adjustable rate mortgage jumped way up to 6.72% (+89 bps).