Il tema va ad imporsi: fino ad un certo punto si è ritenuto che lo scudo statale potesse valere garanzia per il debito del sistema bancario e finanziario, ma questa è una politica che comincia a mostrare la corda negli USA.
Il trasferimento del rischio dal sistema bancario allo Stato comincia a sentirsi nei rendimenti richiesti sul debito pubblico, come era lecito attendersi.
Se la cosa continuasse e si estendesse ad altre situazioni, porrebbe in prospettiva rischi dapprima per i detentori di debito bancario non senior di istituti in difficoltà, ove ed in quanto questo non fosse coperto dalla garanzia statale, poi, se nemmeno dovesse bastare, ai titolari di altro debito di istituzioni bancarie e finanziarie.
A meno che altri episodi non rialimentino il flight to quality e non rendano nuovamente disponibili i mercati verso l'acquisto di debito pubblico a basso rendimento...
X Giontra e Il Folignate (che ponevano la questione in due 3D diversi): potrebbe essere questa anche la chiave di lettura per comprendere l'andamento recente dei TDS tedeschi...
PS: alla luce dell'esperienza recente, sappiamo anche che, in caso di risorgenza dell'inflazione, basta una Lehman da fare deflagrare e si risolve il problema per qualche tempo (é un paradosso, ovviamente ...
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Yield Curve Steepens to Record as Debt Sales Surge (Update1)
By Dakin Campbell
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The
difference in yields between Treasury two- and 10-year notes widened to a record on concern surging sales of U.S. debt will overwhelm the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low.
The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.75 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.74 percentage points set on Aug. 13, 2003. Yields on
10-year notes have risen more than 100 basis points since Fed officials said in March they would buy up to $300 billion of U.S. debt over six months to drive consumer rates down and lift the economy from recession.
“The markets are starting to grapple with the issue of what happens when the Fed exits and the Treasury needs to continue at the same pace,” said David Greenlaw, the chief financial economist in New York at Morgan Stanley, one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed and are required to bid at government bond auctions.
Treasuries fell for a fourth day amid concern record supply will overwhelm investor demand as the economy begins to show signs of stability. The U.S. will likely sell $3.25 trillion of Treasuries in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 to fund bank bailouts, stimulus spending and a record budget deficit, according to primary dealer Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Ten-year notes have lost 10.3 percent this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes, while 30-year bonds have lost 27.5 percent. Two-year notes have gained 0.2 percent.
‘Convexity Selling’
Rising 10-year Treasury yields are pushing yields on mortgage bonds higher, prompting holders of the securities to sell government debt used as a hedge to protect portfolios against rising interest rates.
As mortgage rates rise, the expected average lives of mortgage bonds and mortgage-servicing contacts extend as potential refinancing drops, leaving holders with portfolios of longer-than-anticipated durations. Duration is a measure of bond price sensitivity to interest-rate change.
“The back-up is mostly related to convexity selling by mortgage investors,” said
Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. “This will be a test for the Fed.”
The central bank has bought $130.534 billion in U.S. debt as part of a $300 billion effort to lower consumer borrowing costs. Officials have also embarked on a plan to buy as much as $1.25 trillion in so-called agency mortgage-backed securities
Balance Sheet
Government securities declined even as today’s auction of a record-tying $35 billion in five-year notes drew the most demand in three months from a group of investors that includes foreign central banks.
The Treasury plans to increase its debt sales after selling $1.9 trillion securities maturing in one year or less in the fourth quarter. Officials have boosted the sizes of all auctions and moved 10-and 30-year bond sales to monthly from eight and four times a year, respectively.
President Barack Obama has pushed the nation’s marketable debt to an unprecedented $6.36 trillion and raised estimates for the deficit this year to a record $1.84 trillion.
Inflation
The unprecedented government borrowing has created concern about a rise in consumer prices. Policy makers have expanded the Fed’s balance sheet to $2.2 trillion while excess reserves at U.S. banks have increased to $896.3 billion.
“Inflation is in the headlight of many investors,” wrote
Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products and emerging markets in New York at MF Global Inc., in a note to clients today. The firm is the world’s largest broker of exchange-traded futures. “A few are starting to think the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.”
Central bank official have held the federal funds rate, the overnight lending rate between banks, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December.
Ten-year breakeven rates, the difference between yields on 10-year inflation-indexed bonds and nominal Treasuries of the same maturity, touched 1.9405 percent today, the widest the spread has been since Sept. 23.
di molte Materie Prime salire e non poco.
... secondo me parecchi cds sono posizioni contrapposte, si elidono ... di sicuro il caso GM è cruciale e avrà ripercussioni ... in senso positivo o negativo dipende da Obama ... Paologorgo e I98mark seguono il caso approfonditamente nel thread apposito ... l'impressione che ho avuto fin dalla presentazione del piano di ristrutturazione è che non ci fosse una grande volontà di risolvere il problema dignitosamente e pacificamente
