Bolle in pentola che sono tutti nelle canne. Giuste riflessioni, grazie del link, ma mi chiedo: a cosa ti serve sapere chi li ha avuti ?
Li hanno avuti tutti: ad es. tu sei una banca, sai che la BCE è disposta a stampare e darti degli euro. Che fai, non li prendi e regali un vantaggio competitivo ai tuoi concorrenti ?
E d'altra parte alla BCE non costa nulla creare 442 miliardi o 4 trilioni. Hanno in mano tutto il sistema, nessuno si può opporre, nessuno può chiedere conto del dettaglio che tu chiedi, perchè la BCE è privata e non è dello stato. Guardacaso c'è lo stesso problema di audit della FED.
Insomma voglio dire che a noi per i nostri comportamenti di investitori, basta e avanza conoscere gli aggregati... tra l'altro dobbiamo ringraziare perchè la BOE ad es. non dice più neanche quelli, stampa e nessuno sa quanto
Psssss... debito/PIL UK al 200%
UK's debt will quadruple unless drastic steps are taken, says S&P
The ratings agency has calculated privately that the UK's public sector debt could quadruple from its current level of just over 50pc of economic output to 200pc or above within the next four decades as the cost of servicing public sector pensions, ballooning social security costs and healthcare burdens becomes overwhelming, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.
The warning is doubly sobering since S&P last month placed Britain's debt on to "negative outlook" – an explicit signal that it could soon be downgraded
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nless-drastic-steps-are-taken-says-SandP.html
... 34%, mica bau bau, micio micio...
PS: corollario... se si avvera questa ipotesi, le banche irlandesi, specializzate quale più quale meno nel "buy to let" sul mercato UK, praticamente non le salva nessuno... l'Irlanda va a pagare quasi il 6% sull'ultimo decennale, ma dovrebbe essere mooolto di più...
PS: e le aree della UK in cui le cose vanno peggio sono proprio quelle in cui le banche irlandesi sono tradizionalmente più presenti...
15% Prime UK Mortgages in Negative Equity; Set to Reach 34%
23 Jun 2009 3:20 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-23 June 2009: Fitch Ratings says in a report published today that 15% of mortgage loans by value in UK prime RMBS master trust programmes are in negative equity. The agency expects that to increase to 34% if house prices fall in line with Fitch's expectations of a 30% house price decline peak to trough, which would mean a further 14% fall from today's values.
Northampton, Nottingham and Derby are the worst affected cities. Fitch's analysis shows that the East Midlands has the highest proportion of loans in negative equity (21.8% by value and 15.1% by number of borrowers) and Scotland has the lowest (5.4% by value and 3.6% by number of borrowers).
"Amongst the loans in our analysis, which constitute nearly 25% of all outstanding UK prime mortgages, approximately 270,000 borrowers are in negative equity," says Alastair Bigley, Head of RMBS for UK and Ireland at Fitch. "Of the 2.7 million prime mortgage loans totalling GBP263bn securitised through RMBS, more than GBP39bn of loans are in negative equity and this figure will rise further as house prices continue to fall."
Such an increase in isolation is unlikely to result in negative rating action, since a 30% peak to trough house price decline is already factored into current Fitch RMBS ratings.
"While prime borrowers are unlikely to default solely because the value of their house is less than the outstanding balance of their mortgage, Fitch expects default rates to be higher for borrowers in negative equity," says Ketan Thaker, Director in Fitch's European RMBS team. "Borrowers with equity in the property have options available to them in case of financial distress that borrowers in negative equity do not, for example sale of property, remortgaging, better availability and pricing of products, and the withdrawal of equity to fund temporary cash shortage, which could help avoid foreclosure."
Amongst the master trust programmes, there is a wide variation of exposure to negative equity. Up to the end of April 2009, using the Nationwide Building Society (NBS) House Price Index, Fitch estimates that Northern Rock's master trust RMBS programme, Granite, with 32% of loans (by value) in negative equity, has the highest proportion and Barclay's Gracechurch pool, with only 2% of loans in negative equity, has the lowest proportion. These significant relative differences will persist if house prices fall further. "Even assuming that house prices see a modest recovery from their lowest levels, most RMBS transactions are likely to have a sizeable proportion of borrowers in negative equity for some time to come," says Mr. Bigley.
The report, 'Underwater - Exposure to Negative Equity in UK Prime RMBS', is available at Fitch's subscription website
www.fitchresearch.com.
It analyses the proportion of UK prime RMBS mortgage loans in negative equity by region and by mortgage lender. It lists the top 100 cities and the top 100 postcodes with the highest proportion of loans in negative equity. In the UK, 'prime' generally refers to borrowers with a clean credit history.
.... che eventualmente sarebbero così in grado di sapere come si stanno muovendo gli emittenti che seguono...
