Broker88
Senior Member
Vero, la discesa dei depositi BCE potrebbe indicare la ripresa effettiva dell'equity e quello dovrebbe essere il momento giusto per entrare.
Non certo l'euforia di pochi giorni per poi rimangiarsi tutto in 2 sedute
Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi
- Creatore Discussione METHOS
- Data di Inizio
Vero, la discesa dei depositi BCE potrebbe indicare la ripresa effettiva dell'equity e quello dovrebbe essere il momento giusto per entrare.
Non certo l'euforia di pochi giorni per poi rimangiarsi tutto in 2 sedute
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Caspita: mi è capitato l' occhio sotto l' indirizzo sotto il tuo avatar...l'hai,come dire? preso un po' alla lontana eh?
Simpatico però!.
Ma sai il discorso che tu fai non è proprio detto che sia così..devi anche tenere conto che la produzione industriale occidentale è ferma da tempo e si è lavorato per i magazzini per un po'.. (chi ha incarichi operativi sa cosa intendo dire..) ed i magazzini come nn sono eterni per i cinesi nn lo sono anche per noi; in altre parole voglio dire che nn tutto il male viene per nuocere (il primo assunto: se aumentano le mp ordino subito per nn avere l'aumento); Con questo nn voglio sprizzare entusiasmo, anzi.
Deve essere tenuto conto anche delle rotative roventi...che in questo momento stampano carta (bellissimo il termine:quantitative easing..solo gli americani hanno una simile fantasia
) a piu' nn posso ed il loro effetto presto o tardi lo produrranno..Comunque, credo, è un po' presto per fare previsioni (di Roubini c'è uno e basta ed avanza ..e gestisce un fondo od un qualcosa che ho letto essere al 50/70% in azioni -nn sò se è vero..)mostromarino
Guest
sono degli illusi gli imprenditori italiani che pensano di poter "sfruttare" il mercato cinese
lorenzov...
hai dimenticato le tecnologie copiate della linea alta velocità aeroporto-shangai
hanno ringraziato e tanti inchini,ma la seconda se la son fatta da soli
lorenzov...
hai dimenticato le tecnologie copiate della linea alta velocità aeroporto-shangai
hanno ringraziato e tanti inchini,ma la seconda se la son fatta da soli
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Vero.
Yunus80
Del PIG non si butta nulla
Concordo pure io... qui tutti quanti fino a poco tempo fa a leccare il cuxo ai cinesi, tutti a portare la produzione là perché "si risparmia!" e a osannarli perché i loro prodotti costano poco e tengono bassa l'inflazione.
Salvo poi mettersi a piangere perché i cinesi, cattivoni, poi si mettono a produrre in proprio e ci copiano i prodotti. Fra l'altro la nostra produzione è andata a ramengo e la disoccupazione qui cresce, perché creare lavoro senza le fabbriche è duretta...
Ma dico, tutti questi imprenditori che fino a 3 anni fa (come tanti) sembravano aver capito tutto del mondo, pensavano di aver a che fare con una congrega di educande? Pensavano veramente che in un paese in cui c'è un regime come quello cinese si sarebbero fatti tanti problemi di fronte alle loro pregiate proprietà intellettuali? O che vedremo ancora inchini e salamelecchi quando avranno imparato da noi quel che c'era da imparare e semplicemente non gli serviremo più?
Ma qui si festeggia perché gli vendiamo 1000 Ferrari all'anno... e l'orchestra suona, sul Titanic.
Salvo poi mettersi a piangere perché i cinesi, cattivoni, poi si mettono a produrre in proprio e ci copiano i prodotti. Fra l'altro la nostra produzione è andata a ramengo e la disoccupazione qui cresce, perché creare lavoro senza le fabbriche è duretta...
Ma dico, tutti questi imprenditori che fino a 3 anni fa (come tanti) sembravano aver capito tutto del mondo, pensavano di aver a che fare con una congrega di educande? Pensavano veramente che in un paese in cui c'è un regime come quello cinese si sarebbero fatti tanti problemi di fronte alle loro pregiate proprietà intellettuali? O che vedremo ancora inchini e salamelecchi quando avranno imparato da noi quel che c'era da imparare e semplicemente non gli serviremo più?
Ma qui si festeggia perché gli vendiamo 1000 Ferrari all'anno... e l'orchestra suona, sul Titanic.
mostromarino
Guest
OT
premetto che l`allegato non coincide affatto con la mia visione POCO catastrofica
propongo una cosa ...triste in una giornata di sole
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXiKClqEJgU
paologorgo
Chapter 11
"In consultation with the business community and my top economic advisers, it is clear that the financial system, although improved from where it was in September, is still fragile," Mr. Obama said. "I felt that it would be irresponsible for me, with the first $350 billion already spent, to enter into the administration without any potential ammunition should there be some sort of emergency or weakening of the financial system."
One of Mr. Obama's top economic advisers said the public has a "right to be angry" about the bailout. In a letter to Congress, Lawrence Summers, Mr. Obama's pick to head the National Economic Council, wrote that the incoming team would usher in a number of changes and conditions to TARP, including a "sweeping effort" to address foreclosures and reduce mortgage payments for "responsible homeowners." Mr. Summers promised additional efforts to spur consumer and business lending and tougher restrictions for entities that accept government money.
Mr. Summers wrote that firms receiving "exceptional" government assistance would be subject to tighter restrictions on dividends and limits on the types of companies they can acquire. Mr. Summers also wrote that the incoming administration would also strengthen oversight of TARP, which has been criticized by two independent bodies as lacking transparency.
The letter was short of specifics and instead laid out broad goals. That might not be enough to placate some lawmakers, particularly those Democrats who have said they'll seek a detailed accounting of how TARP money will be spent.
Mr. Obama plans to meet with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. He has also begun calling congressional leadership as well as rank-and-file members to gin up support for the release of the second half, congressional aides say.
The decision to request the money even before Mr. Obama takes office suggests a continuing unease about the state of the U.S. economy and financial markets. Banks are being hit on many fronts, including big losses in consumer loans such as credit cards, home mortgages and home-equity lines. The biggest banks are also being hurt on their Wall Street businesses, forcing them to take more losses on such holdings as mortgage-related securities.
While Obama officials did not cite specific problems on the horizon, there's a concern within the incoming and outgoing administrations that further deterioration could trigger a government response. Mr. Summers called the need for the second round of funds "imminent and urgent."
Timothy Geithner, Mr. Obama's Treasury secretary-nominee, has been pushing the Obama team to request the funds as soon as possible, arguing that the administration should not begin its term without those resources, a Bush administration official said.
The letter from Mr. Summers is an attempt to refocus and restart TARP. Both Democrats and Republicans are angry over how the funds were spent and are not inclined to release any more money. Mr. Obama said he, too, is "disappointed with the absence of clarity, the lack of transparency, the failure to track how the money's been spent and the failure to take bold action with respect to areas like housing, consumer credit, so that we can maintain credit."
Messrs. Summers and Geithner have been negotiating with lawmakers to satisfy their concerns. In the Senate, Republicans who originally supported the plan may be unwilling to support another round.
Some Senate Democrats remain skeptical, as well. "I voted against the bailout because I thought it lacked accountability and transparency. Unfortunately, that turned out to be the case," said Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat. "Before I approve use of the rest of the money, I'm going to need to see a detailed plan for how it would be spent."
Senate Democrats are trying to find 50 votes to thwart any resolution disapproving the funds.
Some of the holdouts are expected to demand a detailed plan to prevent foreclosures. Lawmakers and economists have said for months that the crisis won't be tamped down before home values stop falling. Mr. Summers wrote that the Obama team would seek to "reduce mortgage payments for economically stressed but responsible homeowners" and rework bankruptcy laws. The letter provided few details on how the administration intends to prevent foreclosures.
One of Mr. Obama's top economic advisers said the public has a "right to be angry" about the bailout. In a letter to Congress, Lawrence Summers, Mr. Obama's pick to head the National Economic Council, wrote that the incoming team would usher in a number of changes and conditions to TARP, including a "sweeping effort" to address foreclosures and reduce mortgage payments for "responsible homeowners." Mr. Summers promised additional efforts to spur consumer and business lending and tougher restrictions for entities that accept government money.
Mr. Summers wrote that firms receiving "exceptional" government assistance would be subject to tighter restrictions on dividends and limits on the types of companies they can acquire. Mr. Summers also wrote that the incoming administration would also strengthen oversight of TARP, which has been criticized by two independent bodies as lacking transparency.
The letter was short of specifics and instead laid out broad goals. That might not be enough to placate some lawmakers, particularly those Democrats who have said they'll seek a detailed accounting of how TARP money will be spent.
Mr. Obama plans to meet with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. He has also begun calling congressional leadership as well as rank-and-file members to gin up support for the release of the second half, congressional aides say.
The decision to request the money even before Mr. Obama takes office suggests a continuing unease about the state of the U.S. economy and financial markets. Banks are being hit on many fronts, including big losses in consumer loans such as credit cards, home mortgages and home-equity lines. The biggest banks are also being hurt on their Wall Street businesses, forcing them to take more losses on such holdings as mortgage-related securities.
While Obama officials did not cite specific problems on the horizon, there's a concern within the incoming and outgoing administrations that further deterioration could trigger a government response. Mr. Summers called the need for the second round of funds "imminent and urgent."
Timothy Geithner, Mr. Obama's Treasury secretary-nominee, has been pushing the Obama team to request the funds as soon as possible, arguing that the administration should not begin its term without those resources, a Bush administration official said.
The letter from Mr. Summers is an attempt to refocus and restart TARP. Both Democrats and Republicans are angry over how the funds were spent and are not inclined to release any more money. Mr. Obama said he, too, is "disappointed with the absence of clarity, the lack of transparency, the failure to track how the money's been spent and the failure to take bold action with respect to areas like housing, consumer credit, so that we can maintain credit."
Messrs. Summers and Geithner have been negotiating with lawmakers to satisfy their concerns. In the Senate, Republicans who originally supported the plan may be unwilling to support another round.
Some Senate Democrats remain skeptical, as well. "I voted against the bailout because I thought it lacked accountability and transparency. Unfortunately, that turned out to be the case," said Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat. "Before I approve use of the rest of the money, I'm going to need to see a detailed plan for how it would be spent."
Senate Democrats are trying to find 50 votes to thwart any resolution disapproving the funds.
Some of the holdouts are expected to demand a detailed plan to prevent foreclosures. Lawmakers and economists have said for months that the crisis won't be tamped down before home values stop falling. Mr. Summers wrote that the Obama team would seek to "reduce mortgage payments for economically stressed but responsible homeowners" and rework bankruptcy laws. The letter provided few details on how the administration intends to prevent foreclosures.
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Guarda YUNUS apri una ferita mai ben rimarginata: circa 7 anni fa ricevetti una delegazione (proponevano una joint venture o qualche ca.gata - si puo' dire?? del genere) PRC in una azienda dove lavoravo (prima): inchini salamelecchi - 10-12 persone armate con macchine fotografiche, bloc notes e quant' altro...sequestrati prima di entrare in stabilimento, messo due persone alle costole di ogni funzionario (perchè chissà come mai si attardavano sugli impianti di punta..); il Titolare che allora stravedeva per questi., mi accusò di (ed in effetti mi spesi e non poco per mandare a Patrasso -o qualche isola per me và sempre bene...
- l'accordo) non vedere lungo o qualcosa del genere..Nei fatti: l' accordo nn si fece mai, l'Azienda c'è ancora, lavora ed ha ancora la sua forza lavoro...Io nel frattempo cambiai lido, ma questa è un' altra storia..
mostromarino
Guest
tremonti,a dire il vero ci aveva visto giusto,almeno in questo,in tempi non sospetti
rampini , peraltro piacevole ed interessante,ma il solito buonista,
giunge a conclusioni difformi
ma io concordo con voi
rampini , peraltro piacevole ed interessante,ma il solito buonista,
giunge a conclusioni difformi
ma io concordo con voi
Imark
Forumer storico
In forte crescita la dimensione delle cartolarizzazioni, fatte dalle banche europee con il mero intento di disporre di collaterale da dare alle Banche Centrali a fronte di liquidità.
Il tempo ci dirà quante porcherie creditizie - magari invendibili anche nei tempi belli delle cartolarizzazioni - saranno state impacchettate e recapitate a Trichet e ai suoi colleghi britannico e svizzero.
Anche perché, con i ridursi dei volumi di credito erogato e (presumibilmente) una maggiore attenzione al merito di credito dei debitori, il nuovo materiale da cartolarizzare scarseggia.
European Banks Delve Deep for Assets to Securitise
07 Jan 2009 9:35 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London-07 January 2009: Fitch Ratings said today that there is a trend towards much larger European securitisation transaction sizes as European banks continue to access European Central Bank and Bank of England repo funding. Fitch estimates that the average European structured finance transaction size (excluding CDOs) was EUR2.6 billion in 2008, compared to EUR1.7 billion in 2007, an increase of some 52%. As new lending origination volumes have declined precipitously and other funding sources remain scarce, the agency said that banks are also increasingly looking to the remaining assets in their back books - assets which have often been passed over for securitisation in the past.
"Banks are turning to assets that they chose not to securitise previously, when investors were still buying, because alternative funding sources were available and there was a strong flow of newly originated more 'plain vanilla' assets to securitise," says Stuart Jennings, Structured Finance Risk Officer for the EMEA region.
"Banks may have preferred not to tap such portfolios in the past as either they saw limited investor appetite for the profile of the assets, or they may have deemed them too problematic or costly to securitise in terms of limited data availability, legal concerns, systems issues or enhancement levels. (ndr: tradotto in volgare: è monnezza ... )"
"Transaction sizes are also increasing to large sizes of tens of billions of euros or pounds. This is an apparent recognition that banks will have to continue to tap central bank funding for the foreseeable future. They are therefore readying themselves with retained transactions which can be quickly utilised for repo funding when needed," Jennings adds
.
The agency emphasised that the securitisation of more esoteric assets, as well as the volume of transaction sizes, presents particular issues in terms of credit analysis (ndr: mannò, ma veramente ? ...).
While such collateral may often be seasoned, other issues may outweigh this positive. For example, in RMBS, the collateral may consist of loans that offer borrowers a high degree of optionality or might involve mortgage borrowers who earn in a different currency to the currency in which the loans are denominated. (ndr: stai a vedere che quei fantastici mutui in CHF, a bassa rata, che hanno infilato nelle tasche di polacchi ed ungheresi nel 2006-2007 hanno finalmente trovato la via della cartolarizzazione).
Other assets may present data issues. For CMBS, banks have been reviewing commercial mortgage books and some are contemplating granular portfolios for securitisation that were previously considered to have too many data hurdles. Development loans are also being considered which have historically been excluded from CMBS. The degree of incremental risk involved in some cases may result in a transaction which Fitch does not deem compatible with a 'AAA' level of credit risk.
Meanwhile due to the changing nature of transactions, the extent of counterparty risk is also increasing. The types of swap and other hedging instruments used in European structured finance have often been of a somewhat less liquid and esoteric nature, including balance-guaranteed swaps and swaps which effectively provide extra credit enhancement to transaction structures.
"Where there are problematic elements within collateral, such as borrower optionality, originators may seek to address these risks by covering it in hedging instruments, for which the originator itself is often the counterparty. This, as well as larger deal sizes, mean more swaps that are less liquid, where the ability to find a replacement will be slim, especially in the current times of crisis when there may be a struggle to replace the counterparty of any type of swap," adds Jennings. "The frequent involvement of the originator in providing such swaps means that there is an erosion of the effective isolation of the structured finance transaction from the risk of the originator. Also, in the event that the originator has to find collateral to post in the event of downgrade, this could present extra liquidity strains for the originating financial institution, at a time of increased financial stress." In response to growing risks within many structured finance transactions, both in the nature of the collateral being securitised, as well as the extent of counterparty risk involved, Fitch is currently developing two new criteria reports. The first addresses the topic of rating ceilings and outlines circumstances where the maximum structured finance rating that can be obtained within a structure will be capped, as a result of the nature of the underlying risks (ndr. stavolta, niente AAA tanto le banche centrali 'sta monnezza se la prendono comunque).
The second is a revision to Fitch's counterparty criteria and will address mitigants that might be adopted to minimise the risks associated with counterparty exposure and reduce the potential instability that this might bring to structured finance ratings or indeed an originator's rating. (Fitch's financial institutions and structured finance groups work together to assess significant counterparty risk positions in structured finance and the extent to which these might impact both the structured finance ratings and the ratings of the financial institutions themselves.) The two criteria reports are expected to be published in the next few weeks.
Il tempo ci dirà quante porcherie creditizie - magari invendibili anche nei tempi belli delle cartolarizzazioni - saranno state impacchettate e recapitate a Trichet e ai suoi colleghi britannico e svizzero.
Anche perché, con i ridursi dei volumi di credito erogato e (presumibilmente) una maggiore attenzione al merito di credito dei debitori, il nuovo materiale da cartolarizzare scarseggia.
European Banks Delve Deep for Assets to Securitise
07 Jan 2009 9:35 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London-07 January 2009: Fitch Ratings said today that there is a trend towards much larger European securitisation transaction sizes as European banks continue to access European Central Bank and Bank of England repo funding. Fitch estimates that the average European structured finance transaction size (excluding CDOs) was EUR2.6 billion in 2008, compared to EUR1.7 billion in 2007, an increase of some 52%. As new lending origination volumes have declined precipitously and other funding sources remain scarce, the agency said that banks are also increasingly looking to the remaining assets in their back books - assets which have often been passed over for securitisation in the past.
"Banks are turning to assets that they chose not to securitise previously, when investors were still buying, because alternative funding sources were available and there was a strong flow of newly originated more 'plain vanilla' assets to securitise," says Stuart Jennings, Structured Finance Risk Officer for the EMEA region.
"Banks may have preferred not to tap such portfolios in the past as either they saw limited investor appetite for the profile of the assets, or they may have deemed them too problematic or costly to securitise in terms of limited data availability, legal concerns, systems issues or enhancement levels. (ndr: tradotto in volgare: è monnezza ...
)""Transaction sizes are also increasing to large sizes of tens of billions of euros or pounds. This is an apparent recognition that banks will have to continue to tap central bank funding for the foreseeable future. They are therefore readying themselves with retained transactions which can be quickly utilised for repo funding when needed," Jennings adds
.
The agency emphasised that the securitisation of more esoteric assets, as well as the volume of transaction sizes, presents particular issues in terms of credit analysis (ndr: mannò, ma veramente ? ...
). While such collateral may often be seasoned, other issues may outweigh this positive. For example, in RMBS, the collateral may consist of loans that offer borrowers a high degree of optionality or might involve mortgage borrowers who earn in a different currency to the currency in which the loans are denominated. (ndr: stai a vedere che quei fantastici mutui in CHF, a bassa rata, che hanno infilato nelle tasche di polacchi ed ungheresi nel 2006-2007 hanno finalmente trovato la via della cartolarizzazione).
Other assets may present data issues. For CMBS, banks have been reviewing commercial mortgage books and some are contemplating granular portfolios for securitisation that were previously considered to have too many data hurdles. Development loans are also being considered which have historically been excluded from CMBS. The degree of incremental risk involved in some cases may result in a transaction which Fitch does not deem compatible with a 'AAA' level of credit risk.
Meanwhile due to the changing nature of transactions, the extent of counterparty risk is also increasing. The types of swap and other hedging instruments used in European structured finance have often been of a somewhat less liquid and esoteric nature, including balance-guaranteed swaps and swaps which effectively provide extra credit enhancement to transaction structures.
"Where there are problematic elements within collateral, such as borrower optionality, originators may seek to address these risks by covering it in hedging instruments, for which the originator itself is often the counterparty. This, as well as larger deal sizes, mean more swaps that are less liquid, where the ability to find a replacement will be slim, especially in the current times of crisis when there may be a struggle to replace the counterparty of any type of swap," adds Jennings. "The frequent involvement of the originator in providing such swaps means that there is an erosion of the effective isolation of the structured finance transaction from the risk of the originator. Also, in the event that the originator has to find collateral to post in the event of downgrade, this could present extra liquidity strains for the originating financial institution, at a time of increased financial stress." In response to growing risks within many structured finance transactions, both in the nature of the collateral being securitised, as well as the extent of counterparty risk involved, Fitch is currently developing two new criteria reports. The first addresses the topic of rating ceilings and outlines circumstances where the maximum structured finance rating that can be obtained within a structure will be capped, as a result of the nature of the underlying risks (ndr. stavolta, niente AAA
tanto le banche centrali 'sta monnezza se la prendono comunque). The second is a revision to Fitch's counterparty criteria and will address mitigants that might be adopted to minimise the risks associated with counterparty exposure and reduce the potential instability that this might bring to structured finance ratings or indeed an originator's rating. (Fitch's financial institutions and structured finance groups work together to assess significant counterparty risk positions in structured finance and the extent to which these might impact both the structured finance ratings and the ratings of the financial institutions themselves.) The two criteria reports are expected to be published in the next few weeks.
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