Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi

CIRCUIT CITY VA IN LIQUIDAZIONE DEFINITIVA
di WSI
La piu' grande catena di negozi di elettronica di consumo degli Stati Uniti, stroncata dalla recessione, non riesce a risollevarsi dall'amministrazione controllata e sceglie il fallimento. Circa 45.000 dipendenti senza lavoro.

Circuit City, la piu' grande catena di negozi di elettronica di consumo degli Stati Uniti, fiaccata pesantemente con un crollo del fatturato per via della recessione non riesce a risollevarsi dall'amministrazione controllata dichiarata poche settimane fa, per cui sceglie il fallimento definitivo. Circa 45.000 dipendenti rimangono senza lavoro in tutti i punti vendita Circuit City sul territorio americano.
 
Non dimentichiamoci che incombe un'altro capitolo della crisi: quello delle amministrazioni locali che vedono ridursi le entrate e/o non hanno accesso al mercato obbligazionario.

Chiamare amministrazione locale la California con i suoi 60 mln di abitanti fa un po' sorridere, ma tant'è ... :D dal WSJ online di ieri.

California Moves Closer to Delaying Tax Refunds, Other Payments

By STU WOO

California moved closer to delaying tax refunds and other payments to preserve dwindling cash in the state, in a new indication that the state's budget crisis is worsening.

State Controller John Chiang announced Friday he would take the action beginning Feb. 1, unless California lawmakers come up with an agreement to close a projected $42 billion budget deficit by mid-2010. Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Democratic-controlled legislature have been deadlocked for weeks over how to resolve the budget crisis in the nation's most populous state.

In all, more than $3 billion in payments, including tax refunds due to millions of individuals and businesses, would be delayed. Mr. Chiang said he would also delay payments to state vendors, local governments expecting aid for social programs and individuals expecting rent or food assistance. "Let me make this point," Mr. Chiang, a Democrat, said in a press conference. "Delaying these payments will hurt real people, many of whom are barely hanging on in these tight times.''

The controller said that his staffers are also looking into the possibility of issuing IOUs next month. In addition to the groups that would have their payments delayed, IOUs could affect payments to local governments, recipients of college grants and state judges and lawmakers and their staffers.

The controller's announcement comes a day after Gov. Schwarzenegger delivered a somber State of the State address, in which he urged legislative leaders to put partisan squabbling aside and quickly deliver budget solutions. The budget crisis has already forced the governor to order most state offices to close two Fridays, beginning in February.

The unpaid furloughs will cost affected state workers about 10% of their pay. In addition, a state board last month halted funding for $3.8 billion in construction projects, but the board decided today to free up $650 million of that sum
 
piccoli Madoff emergono:

Investors in a Sarasota-based hedge fund could be out $350 million, and the man behind it has vanished.


Managers of the fund are telling clients that their money is gone, and they do not know if any will be recovered.
Fund principal Arthur G. Nadel, a prominent player in Sarasota social and philanthropic circles, disappeared this week. His wife, Peg, filed a missing person report with law enforcement after finding a suicide note.
Investors — from individuals to the Sarasota YMCA Foundation — in the funds branded Viking, Valhalla and Scoop were stunned this week to learn they may be victims in what could become the largest investment swindle in Southwest Florida history.
Despite the carnage on Wall Street last year, investors had been told their investments earned more than 8 percent as of November.
Some are already calling it a “mini-Madoff,” after accused investment scammer Bernard Madoff of New York, who has been accused of creating an alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme that yielded similarly large percentage returns.
“I feel abused. I feel beaten. I don’t know who to believe,” said Dr. Brad Lerner, who expects to lose nearly $730,000 in an IRA fund with Nadel and Moody.
 
Non dimentichiamoci che incombe un'altro capitolo della crisi: quello delle amministrazioni locali che vedono ridursi le entrate e/o non hanno accesso al mercato obbligazionario.

Chiamare amministrazione locale la California con i suoi 60 mln di abitanti fa un po' sorridere, ma tant'è ... :D dal WSJ online di ieri.

California Moves Closer to Delaying Tax Refunds, Other Payments

By STU WOO

California moved closer to delaying tax refunds and other payments to preserve dwindling cash in the state, in a new indication that the state's budget crisis is worsening.

State Controller John Chiang announced Friday he would take the action beginning Feb. 1, unless California lawmakers come up with an agreement to close a projected $42 billion budget deficit by mid-2010. Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Democratic-controlled legislature have been deadlocked for weeks over how to resolve the budget crisis in the nation's most populous state.

In all, more than $3 billion in payments, including tax refunds due to millions of individuals and businesses, would be delayed. Mr. Chiang said he would also delay payments to state vendors, local governments expecting aid for social programs and individuals expecting rent or food assistance. "Let me make this point," Mr. Chiang, a Democrat, said in a press conference. "Delaying these payments will hurt real people, many of whom are barely hanging on in these tight times.''

The controller said that his staffers are also looking into the possibility of issuing IOUs next month. In addition to the groups that would have their payments delayed, IOUs could affect payments to local governments, recipients of college grants and state judges and lawmakers and their staffers.

The controller's announcement comes a day after Gov. Schwarzenegger delivered a somber State of the State address, in which he urged legislative leaders to put partisan squabbling aside and quickly deliver budget solutions. The budget crisis has already forced the governor to order most state offices to close two Fridays, beginning in February.

The unpaid furloughs will cost affected state workers about 10% of their pay. In addition, a state board last month halted funding for $3.8 billion in construction projects, but the board decided today to free up $650 million of that sum

Schwarzenegger oramai ha perso la voce a forza di chiedere soccorso,
e sicuramente i Fondi Governativi arriveranno.

Poi c'è l'altro lato della medaglia, dove B.Gross
(il re delle Obbligazioni tramite Pimco )
ha accumulato e continua a comprare grandi quantitativi
che gli frutteranno grandissimi guadagni
( poichè è sicuro della copertura SOS dello Stato Centrale ) :

On U.S. municipal bonds,
Gross said he expected the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to unveil a substantial assistance package to municipalities over the next one to three weeks.
Municipal bonds yielding between 5.5 percent and 6 percent are an "extraordinary opportunity" for investors, he said.
 
Se è vero che in un mondo dove sono le multinazionali a non pagare ed a lasciare le piccole PMI fornitrici di semi-lavorati e servizi a bocca asciutta (vedi Nord est italiano) è vero che la realtà delle PMi del resto italico è legata ad altre PMI. Più o meno grandi ma più o meno tutte con dietro non capitale di azionisti , ma capitale dello stesso soggetto che guida l'azienda. Cioè il capitale famigliare dell'imprenditore.

Uno sforzo (magari quasi coercitivo perchè questi managers bancari fanno pena) dovrà indurre imprenditori e banche a fare un fifty-fifty della situazione. E' l'unica via.

ci vogliono detassazioni, incentivi agli investimenti, cambi manageriali ai vertici bancari

Saluti

Pierluigi

Pierluigi, non sono sicuro di aver capito bene il punto in cui parli del fifty-fifty: puoi gentilmente spiegare meglio?

grazie in anticipo
 
Per la cronaca: i soldi messi dalla banca centrale svizzera per acquistare gli asset U.S. mortgage related di UBS sono pari all'11% del PIL svizzero.

L'ho realizzato stasera per la prima volta... :) Francamente non capisco tutto questo ottimismo di S&P... :D o meglio, lo capisco con il fatto che, se la Svizzera lasciasse mai andare una delle sue banche, ne sarebbe pesantemente impoverita.

Switzerland 'AAA/A-1+' Sovereign Ratings Affirmed On Strong Policy Framework; Outlook Stable

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 13, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it affirmed its 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term
sovereign ratings on the Swiss Confederation (Switzerland). The outlook is stable.
"Our ratings affirmation reflects that although parts of the Swiss
banking system are experiencing financial stress, the country's very large
external creditor position and strong monetary and fiscal frameworks will, in our opinion, be able to absorb the anticipated economic and fiscal fallout from the financial crisis without undermining Switzerland's extremely strong creditworthiness," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Moritz Kraemer.

The ratings on Switzerland reflect our opinion of Switzerland's
long-standing political stability; high per capita income, generated by a
diversified and open economy; robust public finances; and very strong net external creditor position.

Inclusive coalition governments and a rotating presidency have, in our
view, created a political environment in Switzerland, characterized by a
stable, consensus-based system with a long track record of policy continuity.

At the same time, it is our view that the inclusive political system tends to slow down decision-making and promotes a status-quo bias. Nevertheless, following the onset of the current financial crisis, which has also severely
affected the two main Swiss banks, the government's policy reaction has, in our opinion, been swift and circumspect.

Switzerland's economy benefits from a highly skilled labor force, low
inflation, and low unemployment. The country continues to generate one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world, expected to surpass $55,000 in 2009.

As the impact of the international financial crisis intensified, the
Swiss authorities had to provide material support to UBS AG (A+/Stable/A-1) to offset the bank's huge losses on U.S. mortgage assets and other illiquid securities. A fund controlled and financed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Switzerland's central bank, is currently buying up to Swiss franc (CHF) 60 billion (11% of GDP) of UBS' troubled assets. We believe it likely that this fund will not incur sizable losses from the assumption of these assets. Therefore, the government would not incur any significant direct fiscal costs.

UBS has also sold CHF6 billion (1% of GDP) in mandatory convertible notes to the Swiss government, which, once converted in 2011, would give the latter a stake in the bank of about 9%. We are of the opinion that Swiss banks currently enjoy relatively strong capital ratios by international standards, but additional recapitalization costs may still become necessary during 2009.
"The outlook is stable because we believe that no scenario will
materialize where the government would have to directly and substantially recapitalize the country's banks," said Mr. Kraemer.
 
lo ho già scritto e forse mi ripeto,scusate

sapete quanto conta qui la volontà popolare

UBS ha tutti contro,pure il governo (ma non puo`fare diversamente,al momento)
in svizzera non ci si piega,ci si spezza

p.s.
torno a fare aeroplanini,ma vi leggo sempre tutti:D:D:D:D
 
Prepare to see the worst corporate earnings in over fifty years, warns Barron's Jacqueline Doherty, and get ready to wait until the second half of 2009 for an earnings recovery.
Analysts believe corporate earnings will fall 15.5% in Q1 2009 vs. Q1 2008, and will fall 14.3% in Q2 Y/Y. If the analysts are correct, that would bring the total earnings decline to 35% since the profit peak of mid-2007, nearly twice the average peak-to-trough fall of 18%.
Early Q4 earnings reports failed to inspire: JPMorgan (JPM) would have posted an operating loss if not for recently acquired WaMu, Alcoa (AA) lost $1.19B, Intel's (INTC) Q4 profit dropped 90%, and Nvidia (NVDA) and Liz Claiborne (LIZ) both warned investors of bigger-than-forecast losses.
Sectors that could see major losses include materials (-71% consensus), consumer-discretionary companies (-60% consensus), tech firms (-19% consensus) and industrial and energy companies (-21% consensus).
Bottom-up analysts may not have cut their earnings estimates far enough yet. They expect the S&P 500 to post combined earnings of $74.10/share this year vs. top-down analysts who expect just $62.73.
The good news is that the decline has to stop sometime. Analysts see a levelling off in Q3 followed by a 37% jump in Q4. Note, though, that the improvement is based on comparing earnings to a horrid 2008 and not a recovered economy. Even so, stocks have to recover sometime and could get a decent boost during the summer.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/115234-bracing-for-2009-earnings-barron-s
 
CIRCUIT CITY VA IN LIQUIDAZIONE DEFINITIVA
di WSI
La piu' grande catena di negozi di elettronica di consumo degli Stati Uniti, stroncata dalla recessione, non riesce a risollevarsi dall'amministrazione controllata e sceglie il fallimento. Circa 45.000 dipendenti senza lavoro.

Circuit City, la piu' grande catena di negozi di elettronica di consumo degli Stati Uniti, fiaccata pesantemente con un crollo del fatturato per via della recessione non riesce a risollevarsi dall'amministrazione controllata dichiarata poche settimane fa, per cui sceglie il fallimento definitivo. Circa 45.000 dipendenti rimangono senza lavoro in tutti i punti vendita Circuit City sul territorio americano.

Sarà contento Paolo :D

http://www.circuitcity.com/closed.html
 

se abitassi vicino ad un negozio, e potessi portarmi a casa un plasma ad un dollaro... :D

Guarda che su Circuit City con Mark avevamo già detto tutto in tempi non sospetti... ;) (tra l'altro avevano fatto fatica ad ottenere il DIP financing se ricordo bene... - la dice lunga...)

novità importanti in vista?

1 mese fa quotava se non ricordo male 1 dollaro....

ora quota 0,37 ...

secondo me ha molta strada in avanti

Sempre se non va in Ch 11.... :)

grafico moooolto interessante

Minchi.a, ma quante ne hai comprate ? :D :specchio:

visto le news positive che stanno uscendo.. direi troppo poche

in effetti si tratta di una serie di notizie positive come raramente ho sentito da una azienda: i fornitori non ci fanno più credito, chiudiamo diversi punti vendita... :up: :Y


Sai cosa sarebbe il massimo ? :up:

Scoprire che non leggi l'inglese. Almeno così si capirebbe perché posti 10 volte la stessa notizia... :D salvo voler assumere invece che tu lo faccia per dare una pompatina al titolo... :sad:

invece questo piccolo guru mi piace ogni messaggio un po' di più: apre più 3d con lo stesso titolo, pompa che è un piacere, ripete i concetti per i duri di comprendonio e dimostra capacità di analisi non comuni, ha più nick, sempre utili per darsi ragione.

E' proprio vero che il FOL, quando meno te lo aspetti, ti sorprende positivamente... :up:

Una predizione così ad una settimana dal default non è da tutti, ammettiamolo... :D :)

All That's Left Of Circuit City: 17 Lines Of HTML (CC)

Dan Frommer | January 16, 2009 4:35 PM



Liquidation specials on the way!
f
 

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