ditropan
Forumer storico
holas gente ... un poco di materiale sul crudo e gas ...
http://67.15.18.55/forum/topic.php?topic_id=6052&reply_id=148456#148456
http://67.15.18.55/forum/topic.php?topic_id=6052&reply_id=148456#148456
Petrolio Crude oil buy 47$
- Creatore Discussione Soraya
- Data di Inizio
ditropan
Forumer storico
... ero uscito, adesso sono rientrato ai prezzi attuali, ma tengo poca roba.
ditropan
Forumer storico
Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin
Keith Schaefer
[email protected]
www.oilandgas-investments.com
Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin for March 12th, 2009
A Tale of Two Markets - Oil and Gas
Oil and gas are moving in opposite directions right now - oil up and gas down. Oil stocks are tepidly advancing, not quite convinced the move in the oil price is sustainable. Natural gas stocks -those not already crushed - I fear are getting ready for a further 20-30% decline as the next down leg in natural gas prices have begun.
OIL
Colleague Richard Reinhard and I postulated last week that Canadian listed oil stocks would start to rise as sentiment was looking for any excuse to rally oil, and that the US dollar would remain strong and stronger as long as the equity markets were under pressure - and this is happening.
With the US$ now at $1.30 CAD, and oil at US$47/barrel, the Canadian producers’ oil price is $61.10. Many producers make money at that price - making the recent sell off in oil stocks overdone. Some of the really low cost producers who have a lot of horizontal wells (see one of my original stories on this breakthrough technology that greatly increases production and lowers costs) have costs of CAD$30/barrel in the prolific Bakken oil play of Saskatchewan.
Bulls are making much of the fact that the oil price is rising while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to fall 50-100 points per day. Two bullish statistics were that investors saw oil inventories decline for the first time in several weeks last week, and the EIA (Energy Information Administration in the US) reported that gasoline use actually increased in the last week of January, year over year - only 0.8%, but an increase nonetheless.
I am not convinced oil is ready to break out of its trading range. Investor sentiment is fragile - one bad week of oil inventory build up could see prices and stocks tumble. I suspect this is a tradable rally but continuing rise in unemployment will put a lid on demand, and I see oil making one more trip down to the bottom of its trading channel before the massive global stimulus packages and rock bottom interest rates make oil break out.
But I have done some research and actually prepared reports on several junior/intermediate oil companies (and one gas, believe it or not) which I will now update and post to the website one at a time over the coming weeks. They are not to be construed as stocks I am buying. But it will give readers and prospective subscribers a sense of what they will receive each month.
NATURAL GAS
There are only a few natural gas producers whose stocks are still standing relatively strong - companies like Storm Energy (SEO-TSX; $9.88), Progress Energy (PRQ-TSX: $7.83), Celtic Energy (CLT-TSX; $12.35).
Natural gas now sells for under $4/mcf in both Canada and the US, and I see it moving lower through the spring and summer. Most investors will be surprised how low natural gas prices will go - some of the industry publications I read have had speakers calling for sub $2 gas, and one went so far to say that gas will go to zero- no bid - for a time. This evidently happened in 2002.
The Canadian natural gas stocks have now had all their good news come out. All their 2008 year end numbers were excellent, due to the great prices they enjoyed for the first nine months. Their yearend reserves were up because of all the successful horizontal drilling they did on these huge new gas plays in Alberta and B.C. Those that could raise equity to lower their debt level, have.
I see no more good news for natural gas stocks. Prices are low and going lower. The market is now watching LNG (liquid natural gas) come across from as far away as Australia to the Atlantic Ocean for sale - to either Europe or North America.
The big 3 I just mentioned have strong institutional support, so they will probably only decline 20-30% from here, and be the first to bounce back. (Despite raising equity, they still have debt levels close to their maximum allowable). I suspect even the most beat up junior natural gas stock still has A LOT of downside in it. Positive cash flows through Q2 and Q3 this year will be anaemic to zero.
In fact, the world is so universally bearish on natural gas a contrarian should be intrigued. For the masochistic gamblers among our readers, have a read of this research piece from First Energy. They are one of the top oil and gas boutique brokerage firms in Calgary specializing solely on energy:
http://www.firstenergy.com/research/documents/Facts-I-GasSpringFling-2009-02-19.pdf
Lastly, I want to point investors to a recent well by Celtic Exploration that epitomizes the new long term price structure on gas.
They have a land position in the Montney play, one of the most high profile but low cost Canadian shale gas plays. The industry is quickly turning the Montney formation into Swiss cheese using horizontal drilling - and it’s very effective.
Now, after you DRILL a hole, you have to FRAC it, which is sending a very specific type of fluid down the hole at super-high pressure, out into the surrounding rock to break it up so the oil can flow into the well. It is this new, MULTI-STAGE FRACING that has allowed the industry to develop these huge pools of natural gas that have been known for decades.
Celtic recently drilled a successful well using 11-stage fractures with initial production rates of up to 14.6MMcf/d. That is a HUGE well - 1 MMcf/d is a big well! BMO Nesbitt estimates in a report on Celtic that well will break even at $3/mcf gas and have the industry required 10% IRR (internal rate of return) at $3.65 gas.
Over time, the price of natural gas (or any commodity really) trades for just above its cost of production. There will be price peaks like last summer and troughs like right now, but generally that’s the case. With horizontal drilling, huge new reserves of natural gas are being opened up, and the horizontal wells produce so much more gas than the old vertical wells that the cost base for this gas will now be a lot lower.
If gas can be profitably produced for $3.65/mcf, and huge new reserves are being opened up, then we will see the price of natural gas be a bit above that.
Not every well will be close to that big or profitable. But a lot of the new HD wells that are being drilled all across North America unlocking large new gas pools do have higher than average historical production, and are low cost producers. These wells do see declines of up to 50-60% in the first year, then 25% or so annually afterwards.
It’s difficult to see how prices could ever get back to double digits - even $7/mcf gas - in the near future. But the good news is that even at $5 gas, there will be many profitable gas companies using HD technology.
Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin
Keith Schaefer
[email protected]
www.oilandgas-investments.com
Keith Schaefer
[email protected]
www.oilandgas-investments.com
Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin for March 12th, 2009
A Tale of Two Markets - Oil and Gas
Oil and gas are moving in opposite directions right now - oil up and gas down. Oil stocks are tepidly advancing, not quite convinced the move in the oil price is sustainable. Natural gas stocks -those not already crushed - I fear are getting ready for a further 20-30% decline as the next down leg in natural gas prices have begun.
OIL
Colleague Richard Reinhard and I postulated last week that Canadian listed oil stocks would start to rise as sentiment was looking for any excuse to rally oil, and that the US dollar would remain strong and stronger as long as the equity markets were under pressure - and this is happening.
With the US$ now at $1.30 CAD, and oil at US$47/barrel, the Canadian producers’ oil price is $61.10. Many producers make money at that price - making the recent sell off in oil stocks overdone. Some of the really low cost producers who have a lot of horizontal wells (see one of my original stories on this breakthrough technology that greatly increases production and lowers costs) have costs of CAD$30/barrel in the prolific Bakken oil play of Saskatchewan.
Bulls are making much of the fact that the oil price is rising while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to fall 50-100 points per day. Two bullish statistics were that investors saw oil inventories decline for the first time in several weeks last week, and the EIA (Energy Information Administration in the US) reported that gasoline use actually increased in the last week of January, year over year - only 0.8%, but an increase nonetheless.
I am not convinced oil is ready to break out of its trading range. Investor sentiment is fragile - one bad week of oil inventory build up could see prices and stocks tumble. I suspect this is a tradable rally but continuing rise in unemployment will put a lid on demand, and I see oil making one more trip down to the bottom of its trading channel before the massive global stimulus packages and rock bottom interest rates make oil break out.
But I have done some research and actually prepared reports on several junior/intermediate oil companies (and one gas, believe it or not) which I will now update and post to the website one at a time over the coming weeks. They are not to be construed as stocks I am buying. But it will give readers and prospective subscribers a sense of what they will receive each month.
NATURAL GAS
There are only a few natural gas producers whose stocks are still standing relatively strong - companies like Storm Energy (SEO-TSX; $9.88), Progress Energy (PRQ-TSX: $7.83), Celtic Energy (CLT-TSX; $12.35).
Natural gas now sells for under $4/mcf in both Canada and the US, and I see it moving lower through the spring and summer. Most investors will be surprised how low natural gas prices will go - some of the industry publications I read have had speakers calling for sub $2 gas, and one went so far to say that gas will go to zero- no bid - for a time. This evidently happened in 2002.
The Canadian natural gas stocks have now had all their good news come out. All their 2008 year end numbers were excellent, due to the great prices they enjoyed for the first nine months. Their yearend reserves were up because of all the successful horizontal drilling they did on these huge new gas plays in Alberta and B.C. Those that could raise equity to lower their debt level, have.
I see no more good news for natural gas stocks. Prices are low and going lower. The market is now watching LNG (liquid natural gas) come across from as far away as Australia to the Atlantic Ocean for sale - to either Europe or North America.
The big 3 I just mentioned have strong institutional support, so they will probably only decline 20-30% from here, and be the first to bounce back. (Despite raising equity, they still have debt levels close to their maximum allowable). I suspect even the most beat up junior natural gas stock still has A LOT of downside in it. Positive cash flows through Q2 and Q3 this year will be anaemic to zero.
In fact, the world is so universally bearish on natural gas a contrarian should be intrigued. For the masochistic gamblers among our readers, have a read of this research piece from First Energy. They are one of the top oil and gas boutique brokerage firms in Calgary specializing solely on energy:
http://www.firstenergy.com/research/documents/Facts-I-GasSpringFling-2009-02-19.pdf
Lastly, I want to point investors to a recent well by Celtic Exploration that epitomizes the new long term price structure on gas.
They have a land position in the Montney play, one of the most high profile but low cost Canadian shale gas plays. The industry is quickly turning the Montney formation into Swiss cheese using horizontal drilling - and it’s very effective.
Now, after you DRILL a hole, you have to FRAC it, which is sending a very specific type of fluid down the hole at super-high pressure, out into the surrounding rock to break it up so the oil can flow into the well. It is this new, MULTI-STAGE FRACING that has allowed the industry to develop these huge pools of natural gas that have been known for decades.
Celtic recently drilled a successful well using 11-stage fractures with initial production rates of up to 14.6MMcf/d. That is a HUGE well - 1 MMcf/d is a big well! BMO Nesbitt estimates in a report on Celtic that well will break even at $3/mcf gas and have the industry required 10% IRR (internal rate of return) at $3.65 gas.
Over time, the price of natural gas (or any commodity really) trades for just above its cost of production. There will be price peaks like last summer and troughs like right now, but generally that’s the case. With horizontal drilling, huge new reserves of natural gas are being opened up, and the horizontal wells produce so much more gas than the old vertical wells that the cost base for this gas will now be a lot lower.
If gas can be profitably produced for $3.65/mcf, and huge new reserves are being opened up, then we will see the price of natural gas be a bit above that.
Not every well will be close to that big or profitable. But a lot of the new HD wells that are being drilled all across North America unlocking large new gas pools do have higher than average historical production, and are low cost producers. These wells do see declines of up to 50-60% in the first year, then 25% or so annually afterwards.
It’s difficult to see how prices could ever get back to double digits - even $7/mcf gas - in the near future. But the good news is that even at $5 gas, there will be many profitable gas companies using HD technology.
Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin
Keith Schaefer
[email protected]
www.oilandgas-investments.com
Soraya
Banned
siamo quasi a 55us $ se fa il testa e spalle il tg è quello mmenzionato 75 us dollar cmq chiudo 4 dei 6 mini con pdc a 41dollari abbiamo sofferto ma m alla fine ha incominciato a pagare e porky ride...
ciao Andrea
Ed che tg hai x il cross'? (1.43)
ditropan
Forumer storico
... mmmhhh questo forum ha dei problemi, ti avevo risposto ieri ma vedo che il mio post è scomparso.
Tornando al discorso scadenza è indifferente adesso Donato, puoi scegliere sia maggio che giugno, al limite rolli ... i contratti più a rischio apertura spread sono febbraio-marzo e poi settembre-ottobre ... da adesso ad agosto si dovrebbe essere abbastanza tranquilli in fatto di spread tra scadenze (a meno di eventi particolari non prevedeibili a priori, tipo catrina su contratti settembre-ottobre del 2005 o cappottamento fondo amarant sul contratto ottobre 2006 ).
Dopo il -9% si capisce che tira brutta aria tra gli operatori del Nymex, sebbene io non la vedo poi così negativa ... a livello di scorte siamo ai livelli del 2007 in cui però il gas viaggiava tra 7$ e 7,8$ ... se poi vogliamo tirare fuori il discorso della crisi e ba.lle varie c'è da dire che pure il petrolio ha delle scorte al massimo da 16 anni ma quota 54$ ed è bello tonico.
Altra cosa poi che pochi di voi notano è il rapporto oil/gas, attualmente siamo a : 54$/4$= 13.5
E' vero che questo rapporto è molto volatile per cui petrolio e gas possono viaggiare in 2 sensi opposti come stanno facendo adesso, ma è pur vero che quando si raggiungono questi valori il rapporto è sempre rientrato almeno attorno a 10-8 ... che vorrebbe dire 5,4$ 6,75$ di Ngas con oil a 54$.
Leggiti questo articolo ... http://321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye032209.html
Tieni conto inoltre che storicamente in questo periodo il rapporto tra oil e Ngas é sempre viaggiato tra 7,5 ed 8,5 con rare punte sui 10 ... adesso stiamo a 13,5 ...
... solo da questa considerazione si può intuire che sebbene ci siano report in giro ultra negativi che vedrebbero per quest'estate quotazioni del gas attorno ai 2$, lo stesso già a questi prezzi (4$) è palesemente sottovalutato.
Poi per carità tutto può succedere, ma allora il petrolio a 54$ non ha senso come pure i cereali con corn a 4$/b, wheat a 5$/b, soia a 9,5$/b ... come neppure un rame a 185 $/ton !
Anche perchè il gas a 2$ vorrebbe dire deflazione conclamata, a quel punto tutte le altre mp che ho sopra citato dovrebbero quotare la metà di quanto quotano ora ... voi ci credete ?
Detto questo la prossima domanda è ... quanto può durare questo scassamento di uallera ?
La risposta potrebbe essere ... in termini eliottiani o quella che stanno facendo adesso è una onda 2 che potrerbbe ritracciare fino ai minimi precedenti per poi partire con la 3 al rialzo, oppure questo stilicidio potrebbe durare fino a maggio inoltrato.
In temini di spazio a mio avviso non hanno molta strada in giù, ma in termini di tempo potrebbero farci soffrire con quotazioni basse per ancora altri 2 mesi con un'andamento stile 1998 (vedi img sotto).
ditropan
Forumer storico
Giorno gassinari ... quì c'è qualche pesce grosso che stà speculando al ribasso, chessò ... potrebbe pure essere GS. Finchè costui non allenta la pressione non ci sono notizie che tengano; alla minima cavolata di notizia vedondono come indemoniati.
Anche perchè la cosa a questo punto è proprio palese, non è possibile che gli stessi trader del Nymex che operano nel pit a 5 metri di distanza al minimo fuscello che si muove ti piazzano 2 sedute da -9% e -8% sul gas ... praticamente da panico di vendite, ed allo stesso tempo fanno finta di nulla sul crude oil ignorando l'elefante che hanno accanto ... un elefante da 356 milioni di barili, scorte praticamente ai massimi degli ultimi 16 anni.
Se i consumi sono fermi a causa della ridotta attività industriale per uno lo sono anche per l'altro, non è certo che ti consumano più petrolio per simpatia rispetto al gas.
Il rapporto crude oil/Ngas arrivato quasi a 14 ne è l'immediata evidenza numerica che qualcuno stà esagerando, in un senso o nell'altro. A questi livelli di spread per chi ne è fuori e vuole approfittare potrebbe benissimo vendere oil e comprare gas anche perchè storicamente questi picchi vengono sempre riassorbiti e riportati alla media tra 7 ed 8.
Questa potrebbe essere un'idea di speculazione per approfittare di questo squilibrio e gestire meglio il rischio.
Anche perchè la cosa a questo punto è proprio palese, non è possibile che gli stessi trader del Nymex che operano nel pit a 5 metri di distanza al minimo fuscello che si muove ti piazzano 2 sedute da -9% e -8% sul gas ... praticamente da panico di vendite, ed allo stesso tempo fanno finta di nulla sul crude oil ignorando l'elefante che hanno accanto ... un elefante da 356 milioni di barili, scorte praticamente ai massimi degli ultimi 16 anni.
Se i consumi sono fermi a causa della ridotta attività industriale per uno lo sono anche per l'altro, non è certo che ti consumano più petrolio per simpatia rispetto al gas.
Il rapporto crude oil/Ngas arrivato quasi a 14 ne è l'immediata evidenza numerica che qualcuno stà esagerando, in un senso o nell'altro. A questi livelli di spread per chi ne è fuori e vuole approfittare potrebbe benissimo vendere oil e comprare gas anche perchè storicamente questi picchi vengono sempre riassorbiti e riportati alla media tra 7 ed 8.
Questa potrebbe essere un'idea di speculazione per approfittare di questo squilibrio e gestire meglio il rischio.
risparmier
Forumer storico
Mon May 11, 2009 3:03am EDT
....
Oil has also benefited from the improved confidence about the global economy, sending futures prices to a six-month high above $58 a barrel on Friday, up by around 70 percent from February lows below $34.
On Monday, U.S. crude futures fell 50 cents to $58.13.
Still, analysts are also warnings of a possible pullback, especially in light of signs of rising inventories.
"Oil prices are driven by perceptions that the economic outlook is less pessimistic that previously thought. But the growth numbers we could be seeing from developed economies may not justify such price levels," said David Moore, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUS...EX20090511?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
....
Oil has also benefited from the improved confidence about the global economy, sending futures prices to a six-month high above $58 a barrel on Friday, up by around 70 percent from February lows below $34.
On Monday, U.S. crude futures fell 50 cents to $58.13.
Still, analysts are also warnings of a possible pullback, especially in light of signs of rising inventories.
"Oil prices are driven by perceptions that the economic outlook is less pessimistic that previously thought. But the growth numbers we could be seeing from developed economies may not justify such price levels," said David Moore, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUS...EX20090511?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
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