Imark
Forumer storico
Un problema che i mercati considerano in misura ancora non sempre adeguata è quello della relazione fra l'esigenza di contenimento della spesa pubblica generato dalla crisi del merito di credito sovereign in Europa (con le sue conseguenze sulla crescita dei mercati interni) ed il merito di credito del corporate europeo più radicato sui mercati domestici.
In prospettiva di lungo termine, potrebbe rendersi problematico l'accesso al funding sui mercati (specie, IMHO, ove si assistesse ad una crescita generalizzata dei costi di finanziamento dei paesi periferici di Eurolandia).
Nel breve medio termine, le politiche di consolidamento inciderebbero soprattutto, secondo Moody's, su quei comparti già indeboliti dalla crisi, come il settore dell'edilizia in Spagna e quello finanziario in UK...
Moody's: Continued sovereign weakness to challenge European corporate credit quality in 2010
London, 12 April 2010 -- The circular relationship between sovereign credit quality and corporate weakness will remain in focus throughout 2010 and beyond as European economies slowly work themselves out of recession, Moody's Investors Service says in a new Special Comment. For the short to medium term, Moody's foresees the main sovereign-related risks for corporate debt issuers in the EMEA region as being increased volatility, lower growth and tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. In the long term, the most significant threat could be access to funding. In any case, the sovereign risks to corporates mentioned in the report have been factored into our existing ratings.
"Moody's expects sovereign credit quality uncertainty and weakness to prevail throughout 2010, with repercussions for corporates. However, to what extent the sovereign crisis is a driver of corporate weakness or whether, conversely, the weakness of an economy or some industries has led to pressure on the sovereign is difficult to pinpoint," says Jean-Michel Carayon, a Moody's Senior Vice-President and co-author of the report. "What is clear is that non-financial corporates are more exposed in those countries where their performance is already weak, which in turn can affect the sovereign performance. The financial industry in the UK and the construction industry in Spain are examples of this circular relationship," Mr Carayon adds.
Moody's explains that the impact of sovereign weakness on corporate credit quality can be both direct and indirect. It can be direct as a result of being linked through ownership or public policy mandates, and as such, the credit quality or assigned rating is pegged to the credit quality or rating of the government. If the sovereign credit quality shifts, chances are there will be a direct movement in the credit quality or rating of the related corporate. Indirect consequences may be less obvious but warrant examination and are discussed in detail in Moody's report.
"Indeed, the indirect impact of a sluggish economic recovery, which continues to be our anticipated scenario, remains a concern. Slow GDP growth and depressed consumer confidence, cuts in government spending, tax hikes, an increase in the cost of funding and more volatility are all sovereign-related hurdles that corporate debt issuers have to navigate," explains Lola Cavanilles, a Moody's Analyst and report co-author.
Moody's report also focuses on those corporate entities that it classifies as government-related issuers (GRIs), of which it rates 146 in EMEA. "At this juncture, we anticipate that the direct effect of selected sovereign weakness on GRI ratings will be minimal, especially in countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece or Spain, where few GRI corporates access the debt capital markets," Ms Cavanilles adds.
In prospettiva di lungo termine, potrebbe rendersi problematico l'accesso al funding sui mercati (specie, IMHO, ove si assistesse ad una crescita generalizzata dei costi di finanziamento dei paesi periferici di Eurolandia).
Nel breve medio termine, le politiche di consolidamento inciderebbero soprattutto, secondo Moody's, su quei comparti già indeboliti dalla crisi, come il settore dell'edilizia in Spagna e quello finanziario in UK...
Moody's: Continued sovereign weakness to challenge European corporate credit quality in 2010
London, 12 April 2010 -- The circular relationship between sovereign credit quality and corporate weakness will remain in focus throughout 2010 and beyond as European economies slowly work themselves out of recession, Moody's Investors Service says in a new Special Comment. For the short to medium term, Moody's foresees the main sovereign-related risks for corporate debt issuers in the EMEA region as being increased volatility, lower growth and tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. In the long term, the most significant threat could be access to funding. In any case, the sovereign risks to corporates mentioned in the report have been factored into our existing ratings.
"Moody's expects sovereign credit quality uncertainty and weakness to prevail throughout 2010, with repercussions for corporates. However, to what extent the sovereign crisis is a driver of corporate weakness or whether, conversely, the weakness of an economy or some industries has led to pressure on the sovereign is difficult to pinpoint," says Jean-Michel Carayon, a Moody's Senior Vice-President and co-author of the report. "What is clear is that non-financial corporates are more exposed in those countries where their performance is already weak, which in turn can affect the sovereign performance. The financial industry in the UK and the construction industry in Spain are examples of this circular relationship," Mr Carayon adds.
Moody's explains that the impact of sovereign weakness on corporate credit quality can be both direct and indirect. It can be direct as a result of being linked through ownership or public policy mandates, and as such, the credit quality or assigned rating is pegged to the credit quality or rating of the government. If the sovereign credit quality shifts, chances are there will be a direct movement in the credit quality or rating of the related corporate. Indirect consequences may be less obvious but warrant examination and are discussed in detail in Moody's report.
"Indeed, the indirect impact of a sluggish economic recovery, which continues to be our anticipated scenario, remains a concern. Slow GDP growth and depressed consumer confidence, cuts in government spending, tax hikes, an increase in the cost of funding and more volatility are all sovereign-related hurdles that corporate debt issuers have to navigate," explains Lola Cavanilles, a Moody's Analyst and report co-author.
Moody's report also focuses on those corporate entities that it classifies as government-related issuers (GRIs), of which it rates 146 in EMEA. "At this juncture, we anticipate that the direct effect of selected sovereign weakness on GRI ratings will be minimal, especially in countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece or Spain, where few GRI corporates access the debt capital markets," Ms Cavanilles adds.
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