Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (3 lettori)

paologorgo

Chapter 11
se qualcuno volesse seguire il ch 11 chrysler anche da un punto di vista "tecnico", questo blog è molto interessante (avevo riportato in passato anche qualche commento su Lehman, di cui si era occupato per un po'):

Chrysler Files Bankruptcy - Part I: Assessing The Financial Carnage

So the petition is now filed. Let's examine the carnage:

  • The claims of the top 50 unsecured creditors total $730 million, with total trade at about $1.5 billion.
  • The claims of the senior secured lenders total $6.9 billion.
  • The USA is owed $4 billion, secured by a third priority lien (with a first on previously unencumbered assets, having an estimated liquidation value per Mr. Manzo of 3-6% on the dollar).
  • Cerberus and Damiler AG are owed $2 billion secured by a second priority lien.
  • An additional approximately $8.5 billion is owed to the VEBA funds that were designed to cover the costs of unionized retiree health benefits.
  • Cerberus paid $7.4 billion in May 2007 for its 80% stake in Chrysler, and lost it all.
  • Daimler paid $37 billion for Chrysler when it purchased it in 1998, and also lost it all.
But in assessing the real carnage to existing claimants, one only has to look at the current balance sheet, filed with the petition, in which $52.6 billion in real liabilities are broken into the following categories:

  • Trade and Related Payables: $5.7 billion
  • Accrued Expenses and Other Liabilities: $33 billion
  • Financial Liabilities: $13.9 billion
With the plan presently on the table proposing basically an all equity plan, except for $2 billion to the senior lenders, a $4.6 billion note to the VEBA trust, and about $1.5 billion in trade payables and $4 billion in pension obligations assumed in the sale, we're talking about losses of about $40 billion in claim value and an additional $43.4 billion in equity value!
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
bruciati 10.2 bilioni, perdita per azione (post accorpamento :D) di $ 966, escuse le one-time net charges...

GM posts Q1 loss; burns through $10 bln

* Loss excluding items $9.66/share, within expectations
* Revenue down 47 pct to $22.4 bln amid global downturn
* Burns through $10.2 bln; aims at further restructuring

DETROIT, May 7 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N) said it burned through $10.2 billion in the first quarter, operating under a federal bailout, as auto sales fell across the globe and it scrambled to cut costs.
The automaker on Thursday posted a quarterly net loss of $6 billion, compared with a loss of $3.3 billion a year earlier.
Revenue dropped by almost half to $22.4 billion as sales plunged in North America and fell in Europe, Asia and Latin America.
Excluding $73 million of one-time net charges, GM posted a loss of $9.66 per share. That was within the wide range of analysts' expectations but narrower than the average forecast of a loss per share of $11.05 as tracked by Reuters Estimates.
GM is facing a government-imposed June 1 deadline to reach agreements to overhaul its operations and cut more than $40 billion in debt. The company has taken $15.4 billion in emergency loans from the U.S. Treasury to date.
The first quarter was also marked by GM's failure to win new federal backing for a turnaround plan that the U.S. autos task force concluded was too slow-moving and too cautious to succeed.
The Obama administration ousted Rick Wagoner as GM chief executive at the end of the first quarter.
Creditors have been looking beyond GM's results, focusing instead on whether it succeeds in winning debt concessions from its bondholders and the United Auto Workers union, analysts said.
The automaker said on Thursday that it had not yet reached the deal it needs with the UAW.
It also said the Treasury had not yet agreed to convert half of the loans it has extended to GM into stock in a restructured company. (Reporting by Kevin Krolicki; editing by John Wallace)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0634019020090507?rpc=44
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
By James Kwak

Calculated Risk has a table listing all of the leaked stress test figures so far. As a percentage of assets, the big banks need between 0% and 1.4% in additional capital. But there is one outlier: GMAC, with $189 billion in assets, needs $11.5 billion in capital.
This implies that GMAC is not just low on capital, it has negative capital. If you were to give GMAC $11.5 billion in new cash, it would have $200 billion in assets. The minimum tangible common equity requirement being used for the stress tests is probably in the 3-4% range. If it’s 4%, then the post-recapitalization GMAC would have $8 billion in tangible common equity – which means that right now it has negative $3.5 billion in tangible common equity. (The situation is slightly worse if you assume that it will be recapitalized through a preferred-to-common conversion, or if the threshold is 3%.)
The thing that confuses me is that, on paper, you can’t recapitalize a company with a negative net worth. No investor would pay $11.5 billion to own 100% of the common shares in a company that is worth $8 billion. (You can recapitalize a company that is under-capitalized: if it has $5 billion in capital and needs another $5 billion, then the new investors get 50% of the company.) This is why it is important (from the government perspective) for the stress tests to show that some banks are low on capital, but not that they have negative capital.
Maybe there’s some clever accounting mechanism or financial wizardry I’m missing.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136263-gmac-stress-test-arithmetic
 

Imark

Forumer storico
By James Kwak

Calculated Risk has a table listing all of the leaked stress test figures so far. As a percentage of assets, the big banks need between 0% and 1.4% in additional capital. But there is one outlier: GMAC, with $189 billion in assets, needs $11.5 billion in capital.
This implies that GMAC is not just low on capital, it has negative capital. If you were to give GMAC $11.5 billion in new cash, it would have $200 billion in assets. The minimum tangible common equity requirement being used for the stress tests is probably in the 3-4% range. If it’s 4%, then the post-recapitalization GMAC would have $8 billion in tangible common equity – which means that right now it has negative $3.5 billion in tangible common equity. (The situation is slightly worse if you assume that it will be recapitalized through a preferred-to-common conversion, or if the threshold is 3%.)
The thing that confuses me is that, on paper, you can’t recapitalize a company with a negative net worth. No investor would pay $11.5 billion to own 100% of the common shares in a company that is worth $8 billion. (You can recapitalize a company that is under-capitalized: if it has $5 billion in capital and needs another $5 billion, then the new investors get 50% of the company.) This is why it is important (from the government perspective) for the stress tests to show that some banks are low on capital, but not that they have negative capital.
Maybe there’s some clever accounting mechanism or financial wizardry I’m missing.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136263-gmac-stress-test-arithmetic

Domanda pertinente ... a me pare che con 11,5 mld $ sia andata ancora di lusso, anche perché, avevo letto, il livello di svalutazione sugli asset "problematici" di GMAC si attesterebbe attorno al 3%... un po' poco ... :cool:
 

giuliana

Nuovo forumer
ho avuto notizie che stanno prestando soldi ancora alla banche tra cui gmac,, per cui tenere i bond gmac specie quelli scadenti 2oo9,,, che al 99 per cento dovrebbero essere rimborsati,,
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Insomma, i creditori di Chrysler stanno per essere totemizzati a dovere...

Dissident Chrysler Group Is Likely to Disband

Update | 10:57 a.m.

A group of Chrysler creditors opposing the carmaker’s reorganization is likely to disband after two more investment firms withdrew from its membership, a person briefed on the matter told DealBook on Friday.
The withdrawals of OppenheimerFunds and Stairway Capital Management will likely drop the group, calling itself the Committee of Non-TARP Lenders, below 5 percent of Chrysler’s $6.9 billion in secured debt, this person said. That would almost certainly eliminate the group’s standing in federal bankruptcy court.
Ever since the group made public last week, its membership has shrunken by the day as it faced public criticism from President Obama and others. That continued withdrawal of firms led Oppenheimer and Stairway to conclude that they could not succeed in opposing the Chrysler reorganization plan in court, the two firms said in separate statements.
In its first public statement last week, the ad hoc committee said that it consisted of about 20 firms holding $1 billion in secured debt. But hours after Mr. Obama criticized the firms as “speculators,” the group lost its first major member, Perella Weinberg Partners, which changed its mind and signed onto the Chrysler plan.
By Tuesday, the group’s holdings had fallen to about $300 million. And by Wednesday, when the committee made a court-mandated disclosure of its roster, that figure had fallen to $295 million. Judge Arthur Gonzalez, who is overseeing Chrysler’s bankruptcy case, overruled the group’s objections to preliminary approval of the carmaker’s debtor-in-possession financing and sales procedures that would pave the way for the company’s reorganization.
Oppenheimer said Friday that “senior creditors can no longer reasonably expect to increase the recovery rate on the debt they hold by opposing the Taskforce’s restructuring plan.”
Stairway also cited the shrinking roster of the dissident creditors as a reason to publicly withdraw its opposition to the Chrysler reorganization plan through the court process. “The fact simply is, however, our group has become too small to have a voice within the bankruptcy,” the firm said in its own statement.
With the withdrawal of Oppenheimer and Stairway, all eight members of the Chrysler lenders’ steering committee have either signed onto the company’s reorganization plan or at least pulled back from public opposition. The other members are the four major banks in the group, Perella Weinberg and the hedge fund Elliott Management.
The remaining members of the group are Schultze Asset Management, Group G Capital Partners and Foxhill Capital Partners. Other secured creditors remain opposed to the Chrysler plan, but have refrained from joining the committee for fear of public reprisal, people with knowledge of the situation told DealBook.
These investment firms had objected to the government forcing them to take repayment of their holdings against their will. Under the terms of Chrysler’s reorganization plan, secured lenders holding a total of $6.9 billion of debt would receive about 29 cents on the dollar in cash.
These lenders had objected to having to take such a discount, despite holding what’s known as first-lien debt that is first in line for repayment, while unsecured creditors received more recovery. The move runs afoul of federal bankruptcy law, the firms have argued.
Chrysler’s proposed plan seeks the shifting of key assets into a new entity co-owned by the United Auto Workers, the Italian carmaker Fiat and the United States and Canadian governments.
“As American taxpayers, we appreciate the unprecedented efforts taken by the current Administration to stabilize the economy and the auto sector; but as fiduciaries to our investors we take exception to being compelled, as Chrysler senior secured lenders, to unfairly shoulder the burden relative to various junior creditors,” Stairway said in its statement.
But dissident creditors had an uphill battle from the start. The four major banks among Chrysler’s 46 secured lenders — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs — held about 70 percent of the secured debt.
The statement by OppenheimerFunds is below:
OppenheimerFunds, Inc. shares the goals of all Chrysler stakeholders seeking to strengthen the automaker. At all times, OppenheimerFunds has balanced this objective with our fiduciary duty to the mutual funds we manage and their thousands of individual shareholders.
Given the reduced number of senior creditors willing to continue to pursue an alternative to the Federal Automotive Taskforce’s proposed settlement, OppenheimerFunds has determined that the senior creditors can no longer reasonably expect to increase the recovery rate on the debt they hold by opposing the Taskforce’s restructuring plan. Therefore, OppenheimerFunds has withdrawn from the Chrysler Non-TARP Lenders Group and will adhere to the determinations of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
And here’s the statement from Stairway:
Stairway Capital Management (“Stairway”) has decided, after countless discussions with its investors, to actively withdraw from the Chrysler bankruptcy process.
We withdraw with the knowledge that we acted in good faith. We have fought for what we believe should be fair and equitable treatment under contract and bankruptcy law - in accordance with what traditionally occurs in a restructuring process. We remain steadfast in our view that there should be significantly more value attained, given a normal course bankruptcy negotiation. The fact simply is, however, our group has become too small to have a voice within the bankruptcy.
As American taxpayers, we appreciate the unprecedented efforts taken by the current Administration to stabilize the economy and the auto sector; but as fiduciaries to our investors we take exception to being compelled, as Chrysler senior secured lenders, to unfairly shoulder the burden relative to various junior creditors.
Finally, we would like to clarify some speculation about Stairway. We are not engaged in the business of underwriting or holding derivative contracts; we do not employ leverage in connection with our investments; and we have never been involved in the subprime mortgage market, at any level or context. Rather, Stairway is just a small private equity firm specializing in special situations and distressed debt opportunities.
Michael J. de la Merced

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2...aws-from-dissident-chrysler-group/?ref=global
 

yellow

Forumer attivo
ho avuto notizie che stanno prestando soldi ancora alla banche tra cui gmac,, per cui tenere i bond gmac specie quelli scadenti 2oo9,,, che al 99 per cento dovrebbero essere rimborsati,,

In effetti parrebbe così ;) :

08.05.09 18:53 - Gmac: Geithner, Tesoro pronto a fornire aiuti (stampa)

NEW YORK (MF-DJ)--Il Tesoro Usa fornira' sostegno finanziario a Gmac.

E' quanto si legge sulla Reuters, che cita le parole del ministro del Tesoro americano, Timothy Geithner, secondo cui e' probabile che Gmac avra' bisogno di nuova liquidita' dal Governo.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Dissident Chrysler Group Is Likely to Disband

Update | 10:57 a.m.

A group of Chrysler creditors opposing the carmaker’s reorganization is likely to disband after two more investment firms withdrew from its membership, a person briefed on the matter told DealBook on Friday.
The withdrawals of OppenheimerFunds and Stairway Capital Management will likely drop the group, calling itself the Committee of Non-TARP Lenders, below 5 percent of Chrysler’s $6.9 billion in secured debt, this person said. That would almost certainly eliminate the group’s standing in federal bankruptcy court.
Ever since the group made public last week, its membership has shrunken by the day as it faced public criticism from President Obama and others. That continued withdrawal of firms led Oppenheimer and Stairway to conclude that they could not succeed in opposing the Chrysler reorganization plan in court, the two firms said in separate statements.
In its first public statement last week, the ad hoc committee said that it consisted of about 20 firms holding $1 billion in secured debt. But hours after Mr. Obama criticized the firms as “speculators,” the group lost its first major member, Perella Weinberg Partners, which changed its mind and signed onto the Chrysler plan.
By Tuesday, the group’s holdings had fallen to about $300 million. And by Wednesday, when the committee made a court-mandated disclosure of its roster, that figure had fallen to $295 million. Judge Arthur Gonzalez, who is overseeing Chrysler’s bankruptcy case, overruled the group’s objections to preliminary approval of the carmaker’s debtor-in-possession financing and sales procedures that would pave the way for the company’s reorganization.
Oppenheimer said Friday that “senior creditors can no longer reasonably expect to increase the recovery rate on the debt they hold by opposing the Taskforce’s restructuring plan.”
Stairway also cited the shrinking roster of the dissident creditors as a reason to publicly withdraw its opposition to the Chrysler reorganization plan through the court process. “The fact simply is, however, our group has become too small to have a voice within the bankruptcy,” the firm said in its own statement.
With the withdrawal of Oppenheimer and Stairway, all eight members of the Chrysler lenders’ steering committee have either signed onto the company’s reorganization plan or at least pulled back from public opposition. The other members are the four major banks in the group, Perella Weinberg and the hedge fund Elliott Management.
The remaining members of the group are Schultze Asset Management, Group G Capital Partners and Foxhill Capital Partners. Other secured creditors remain opposed to the Chrysler plan, but have refrained from joining the committee for fear of public reprisal, people with knowledge of the situation told DealBook.
These investment firms had objected to the government forcing them to take repayment of their holdings against their will. Under the terms of Chrysler’s reorganization plan, secured lenders holding a total of $6.9 billion of debt would receive about 29 cents on the dollar in cash.
These lenders had objected to having to take such a discount, despite holding what’s known as first-lien debt that is first in line for repayment, while unsecured creditors received more recovery. The move runs afoul of federal bankruptcy law, the firms have argued.
Chrysler’s proposed plan seeks the shifting of key assets into a new entity co-owned by the United Auto Workers, the Italian carmaker Fiat and the United States and Canadian governments.
“As American taxpayers, we appreciate the unprecedented efforts taken by the current Administration to stabilize the economy and the auto sector; but as fiduciaries to our investors we take exception to being compelled, as Chrysler senior secured lenders, to unfairly shoulder the burden relative to various junior creditors,” Stairway said in its statement.
But dissident creditors had an uphill battle from the start. The four major banks among Chrysler’s 46 secured lenders — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs — held about 70 percent of the secured debt.
The statement by OppenheimerFunds is below:
OppenheimerFunds, Inc. shares the goals of all Chrysler stakeholders seeking to strengthen the automaker. At all times, OppenheimerFunds has balanced this objective with our fiduciary duty to the mutual funds we manage and their thousands of individual shareholders.
Given the reduced number of senior creditors willing to continue to pursue an alternative to the Federal Automotive Taskforce’s proposed settlement, OppenheimerFunds has determined that the senior creditors can no longer reasonably expect to increase the recovery rate on the debt they hold by opposing the Taskforce’s restructuring plan. Therefore, OppenheimerFunds has withdrawn from the Chrysler Non-TARP Lenders Group and will adhere to the determinations of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
And here’s the statement from Stairway:
Stairway Capital Management (“Stairway”) has decided, after countless discussions with its investors, to actively withdraw from the Chrysler bankruptcy process.
We withdraw with the knowledge that we acted in good faith. We have fought for what we believe should be fair and equitable treatment under contract and bankruptcy law - in accordance with what traditionally occurs in a restructuring process. We remain steadfast in our view that there should be significantly more value attained, given a normal course bankruptcy negotiation. The fact simply is, however, our group has become too small to have a voice within the bankruptcy.
As American taxpayers, we appreciate the unprecedented efforts taken by the current Administration to stabilize the economy and the auto sector; but as fiduciaries to our investors we take exception to being compelled, as Chrysler senior secured lenders, to unfairly shoulder the burden relative to various junior creditors.
Finally, we would like to clarify some speculation about Stairway. We are not engaged in the business of underwriting or holding derivative contracts; we do not employ leverage in connection with our investments; and we have never been involved in the subprime mortgage market, at any level or context. Rather, Stairway is just a small private equity firm specializing in special situations and distressed debt opportunities.
Michael J. de la Merced

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2...aws-from-dissident-chrysler-group/?ref=global

Se parlare alle nuore serve per far intendere alle suocere, prevedo una massiccia adesione degli istituzionali GM allo swap dopo questa ritirata coda fra le gambe dei debtholders Chrysler che non avevano accettato l'offerta del governo ...
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Se parlare alle nuore serve per far intendere alle suocere, prevedo una massiccia adesione degli istituzionali GM allo swap dopo questa ritirata coda fra le gambe dei debtholders Chrysler che non avevano accettato l'offerta del governo ...

qualcuno ha già scelto l'uscita di sicurezza... ;)

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Loomis Sayles & Co. sold all of its General Motors Corp. notes and quit the bondholder group that’s trying to improve the automaker’s debt-exchange offer.
Loomis Sayles, which manages more than $107.7 billion, was part of the original committee of GM bondholders that formed last year after the Detroit-based automaker received federal loans conditioned on a restructuring. Loomis Sayles sold its GM bonds last month and is no longer on the committee, said Erin Heard, a spokeswoman for the Boston-based firm. She declined further comment.
GM and its bondholders are at odds over $27 billion in claims ahead of a June 1 deadline. The bond group called GM’s April 27 offer to swap their claims for a 10 percent equity stake “neither reasonable nor adequate” and asked to be treated more equitably with labor unions. The counter-proposal by bondholders hasn’t been adopted.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adh7HXNu80dw&refer=home
 

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