Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA

[Mr.Noob]

Fra gli 8 cent di cash ed i 16 cent in debito unsecured, mi torna che fosse stata avanzata informalmente la proposta di 30 cent di debito con garanzia statale. Almeno quelli a scadenza li riprendi tutti.

Qui - se andasse a finire così - l'obbligazionista si bagna il becco con gli 8 in cash, però anche il destino dei 16 in debito resta legato al turnaround plan di GM, con la duplice incognita della correttezza delle stime sull'andamento del mercato automotive USA e della capacità di non commettere errori in esecuzione, suppongo rimessa alle mani capaci di Wagoner & friends...

Sarebbe interessante anche sapere se tutto magicamente diventerà dollari, se rimarranno almeno in euro quelle attualmente in euro.
Cmq 8+16+90 anche calcolando che i 90 diventeranno 9 dopo 5 minuti è più di quanto vale ora...

 

[paologorgo]

Scarsa fiducia nel management ?

just to be on the safe side, sbagliando non do molto valore all'equity ed al nuovo bond... - si scherza, agli hold out pagheranno il 100%...

 

[paologorgo]

Stop press: e il nuovo bond di che segno zodiacale sarebbe?!? - che da lì può dipendere il rimborso...

 

[stockuccio]

mah, state a fare un sacco di calcoli .... se si comincia a cambiare la macchina ogni 27 anni ... http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/vehicle-sales-cliff-diving-in-february.html

mi vengono in mente i cubani

 

[Imark]

Sarebbe interessante anche sapere se tutto magicamente diventerà dollari, se rimarranno almeno in euro quelle attualmente in euro.
Cmq 8+16+90 anche calcolando che i 90 diventeranno 9 dopo 5 minuti è più di quanto vale ora...

Anche il 16 dubito che rimanga tale a lungo ... però chi ha avuto la temerarietà di prenderle a 8 ha fatto un buon affare ... e poi, se ce la facesse, gli holdouts verrebbero pagati a 100 ... ma per molti anni le quotazioni dei loro bond resteranno molto basse, anche perché suppongo saranno second lien riseptto a chi accetta la tender offer.

Resto molto scettico sulla "viability", almeno sul versante finanziario... mi chiedo chi accorderà a GM i capitali di cui avrà bisogno nell'esercizio dell'attività industriale negli anni a venire anche dopo questa operazione.

 

[paologorgo]

* Regional state willing to take stake in Opel
* Opel sees boost from incentive scheme
(Adds Commerzbank mandated to find investor for GM's Opel unit)
FRANKFURT, March 27 (Reuters) - General Motors (GM.N) has mandated Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) to help find a new investor for its Opel unit, a source said, as the German company reported booming demand on the back of a government incentive package.
The company on Friday forecast some 120,000 orders in the first quarter of 2009.
"That is the best result for Opel in the last 10 years," said Michael Klaus, executive director for sales, marketing and aftersales at Adam Opel GmbH.
As part of its fight against slumping world auto sales, the German state is paying owners 2,500 euros ($3,351) to scrap old cars if they replace them with a new model.
Klaus said Opel had received some 80,000 orders for its new flagship Insignia model, with 18,000 coming directly from Germany.
A person with knowledge of the process told Reuters: "Commerzbank has received a mandate from GM."
Commerzbank, whose biggest shareholder will soon be the federal government in Berlin with 25 percent, specialises in German retail and corporate lending and aims to reduce what little investment banking business it conducts.
Germany's second largest bank does not rank at all in the league tables for global mergers and acquisitions.
The German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, home to Opel's Kaiserslautern factory, has said it would take a direct stake in the company to ensure its survival.
"People would not be able to understand that it was necessary to bail out the banking industry at the cost of 480 billion euros and yet not even 1 percent of that can be organised to save Opel, an important company that belongs to a key industry," said Hendrik Hering, economics minister of Rhineland-Palatinate.


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLR50903620090327?rpc=44

 

[Imark]

Cmq ieri sull'ICMA il 2033 in euro ha chiuso 17,17 - 19,20; 18,25 il prezzo ufficiale.

Sono curioso di vedere se il prezzo in chiusura oggi sarà più alto o più basso.

A Francoforte 20,52 - 21,00; 20,8 last... 323.000 pezzi scambiati

 

[troppidebiti]

WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N) has given bondholders holding over $27 billion in its debt a new proposal on terms for exchanging most of that debt into equity, according to a person with direct knowledge of the
negotiations.

GM sent a letter to representatives of GM bondholders earlier in the week, according to the person who asked not to be named because of the confidential nature of the talks.

Bondholders had complained in a letter sent on Sunday to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that they had been shut out of negotiations on restructuring GM's debt since a March 5 meeting with members of the Obama administration's autos task force.

Under the terms of GM's $13.4 billion in emergency loans from the Treasury, its bondholders face pressure to accept a payout of just 33 cents on the dollar in equity in a recapitalized company.

But the bond exchange remains voluntary and bondholders have said those proposed terms would not be attractive enough to get widespread participation from GM debt investors.

A GM spokeswoman could not be immediately reached for comment. Keywords: GM/BONDHOLDERS

 

[Researcher]

guarda che ti sono passati davanti fornitori ed azionisti, con le nuove regole...

Enjoy, neo azionista (un triliardo di azioni, emetteranno...):

Details are beginning to leak of the deals GM (GM) will offer to UAW and bondholders in order to meet Tuesday's government deadline. For $20B owed to UAW for retiree healthcare, offer is $10B cash amortized over 20 years and $10B in preferred stock at a 9% coupon. For $28B due bondholders, one plan calls for 8 cents cash, 16 cents in unsecured debt, and all told, 90% of the equity in GM. Alternative choices for bondholders would also include the 90% of equity.

Faranno come l'ADC di Seat Pagine Gialle: 40 mln di azioni in circolazione che valgono 6 euri......ADC a 0,1060 ed emissione di quasi 2 miliardi di azioni nuove.....prezzo teorico optato: 0,22.......

Devono fare aderire il parco buoi!!!!

 

[paologorgo]

The Numbers
China surpassed the U.S. in 2008 in auto production, making it No. 2 behind Japan, and is set to overtake Japan this year, according to iSuppli Corp.:
9.3 million: number of cars made in China in 2008, including those made with foreign joint ventures.
8.7 million: cars manufactured in the U.S. in 2008
6.5%: expected decline in China's 2009 car production
25%: expected decline in 2009 car production globally, after a 6.6% decline in 2008