Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?
apaci2
Ad bestias
Uscito dal long strategico () sul BTP.
Iniziato ieri mattina, dovevo tenere almeno fino a 130.
Non ce l'ho fatta, a 128.63 ho salutato.
Oggi giornata di vendemmia probabilmente per molti
ad avercene di Venerdì 17 così
Cmq rimarrei cauto perchè con questa volatilità può succedere molto se non tutto.
Buon week end
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
We attribute this week’s market action to the “3 E’s”: the economy, Ebola, and exhaustion in the short
base. Although markets may remain volatile over the near term, given an unchanged economic and
Fed outlook, cleaner positioning, and rich valuations, we turn bearish on duration
Ora posso andare a fare la spesa (da questa settimana solo al Lidl) tranquillo.
base. Although markets may remain volatile over the near term, given an unchanged economic and
Fed outlook, cleaner positioning, and rich valuations, we turn bearish on duration
Ora posso andare a fare la spesa (da questa settimana solo al Lidl) tranquillo.
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Voi folisti siete sempre in gain, complimenti.
Peccato , almeno per me, che prima del 17 c'è stato il 16-15-14.
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Ah beh, 15.000 Nfp meno del previsto, normale che TN10y si beva quasi un punto...con S&P inchiodato ai massimi, poi...
Nel calcolo del NFP , devi registrare anche la revisione positiva della precedente lettura (sarà questo il segnale negativo ?)
La disoccupazione è passata da 5.9% a 5.8 %, è questo il pessimo segnale...
lol.Caro amico frazionario, sai che il discorso sarebbe lungo.
A inizio settimana avrei ultrafirmato di terminare a 2.3010
Se vuoi un Voltaren-JPM , eccolo (su NFP e rate hike) :
J.P. Morgan Logo
07 Nov 2014
North America Economic Research
Rate hikes are coming
The October jobs report was a solid continuation of recent trends: employment increased 214,000, essentially unchanged from the 222,000 average over the prior twelve months, while the unemployment rate ticked down again to 5.8% and is now quite close to its natural rate. Average hourly earnings growth also held steady, up 0.1% and 2.0% over the past year. We think it would be myopic, however, to conclude that the wage data indicate the labor market isn't tightening. Wages and prices respond with somewhat of a lag to the removal of labor market slack, and it was only a year ago that the unemployment rate stood at a very elevated 7.2%. In any event, we think the unavoidable conclusion is that this is a "hawkish" jobs report which will keep the Fed well on track for a first rate hike in the middle of next year (we continue to look for a June hike). Not only did the unemployment rate move down, but many of the "Yellen indicators" also pointed to declines in broader measures of labor market underutilization, most notably the U-6 measure fell another 0.3%-point to 11.5%. Looking ahead to the December FOMC meeting, in their revised economic forecasts the Committee will have to take down their 2014 unemployment rate tracking by at least two tenths relative to their September projection, a mark-down which they will partly carry over to next year. Given that, we think it will be hard for them to lower their inflation projection for next year, global disinflation headlines notwithstanding. Given all this, the most dovish outcome for the dots is that they remain unchanged and continue to firmly indicate rate hikes beginning sometime in the middle two quarters of next year.
Today's report had limited growth implications. The step-down in job growth from a monthly average 234,000 in Q3 to 214,000 last month is statistically meaningless, similar to our projected step-down in GDP growth from 2.9% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4. The average workweek did tick up in the all-worker series to 34.6 hours, albeit after a downward revision to the workweek the prior month. The industry detail wasn't particularly exciting, as each major sector, government, construction, manufacturing, private services, took their share of the load. Average hourly earnings in the headline all-worker series increased 0.1%, while the production and non-supervisory worker series rose another 0.2%. The steadiness in average hourly earnings, which, for the most part, does not include incentive compensation, is consistent with the recent print for the Employment Cost Index (ECI) excluding incentive-paid occupations. Including incentive pay, however, the ECI has begun to show some signs of acceleration.
Turning to the household survey, the 1.4%-point decline in the unemployment rate over the past year is the fastest such decline since the early 1980s. The fact that the unemployment rate decline has accelerated as the jobs market has moved closer to full employment is at odds with the commonly-held view (for example, recently expressed by Boston Fed's Rosengren) that the pace of decline should slow as we get closer to the natural rate of unemployment. Given that the unrounded unemployment rate was 5.75%, it won't be hard to get the headline number down to 5.7% in the next report, which comes out two weeks before the next Fed meeting. The participation rate ticked up to 62.8%; while we've seen a few false dawns on the participation rate before in this cycle, the stabilization over the past twelve months is certainly a welcome development. The good news on the participation rate helped the employment-to-population ratio increase two ticks to 59.2%. The number of people working part-time who would prefer a full-time job (regularly referenced by Yellen) declined another 76,000 last month and is down 989,000 over the past year. The short-term (less than 6 months) unemployment rate ticked down to 3.9% and is at its lowest level since late 2007. By almost all measures, labor market slack is rapidly diminshing.
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Michael Feroli
(1-212) 834-5523
[email protected]
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
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