Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?

[9/15]

Nel calcolo del NFP , devi registrare anche la revisione positiva della precedente lettura (sarà questo il segnale negativo ?)

La disoccupazione è passata da 5.9% a 5.8 %, è questo il pessimo segnale...lol.

Caro amico frazionario, sai che il discorso sarebbe lungo.

A inizio settimana avrei ultrafirmato di terminare a 2.3010

Se vuoi un Voltaren-JPM , eccolo (su NFP e rate hike) :

JPM who? #JPMSTAYHAWKISH
In merito al frazionario, viste le perdite, stavo pensando di autoridurmi a 3/5.

 

[9/15]

Possibilità di QE fuoco&fiamme (draghi) aumentate, dopo gli ultimi dati?
Che ne pensate?
Jpm?

 

[apaci2]

Ha appena iniziato quello dei covered...
Quello degli ABS è dietro l'angolo...

Si parla insistentemente di QE sui corporate bond (maybe anche financials)...

Ora anche QE govt...

Mi sembra che si stia esagerando

 

[9/15]

Ha appena iniziato quello dei covered...
Quello degli ABS è dietro l'angolo...

Si parla insistentemente di QE sui corporate bond (maybe anche financials)...

Ora anche QE govt...

Mi sembra che si stia esagerando

Già, ma i mercati ci credono...sale tutto, pure il Bund.

 

[amorgos34]

Già, ma i mercati ci credono...sale tutto, pure il Bund.

A che ora smentisce Weidmann ?

 

[ferdo]

A che ora smentisce Weidmann ?

eddai !!!

 

[amorgos34]

Jpm?

Quello che scrive è Fuzesi , in JPM nessuno è stato bravo come lui nel non beccarne una negli ultimi due anni.


Abstract:
Two aspects of ECB president Draghifs speech are striking. The first is a clear sense of urgency about the need for action to boost growth and move inflation back to 2% gwithout delayh. The second is that he clearly refutes arguments that large-scale asset purchases (and sovereign QE in particular) would not be effective in the Euro area, despite its bank-based financial system. And while he says that the ECB is already acting to increase the size of its balance sheet, it seems obvious that he wants to do more.

Regarding the first, Draghi uses very clear language. In his view ga stronger recovery is unlikely in the coming monthsh and the inflation picture is already gchallengingh. His emphasis on needing to anchor inflation expectations is not new but is presented with more urgency and he talks about both longer-term and shorter-term inflation expectations.

The second aspect of his speech is particularly striking however. Until now, ECB commentary has focused very much on whether asset purchases can help to boost bank lending. In the case of ABS or covered bond purchases, the links are easy to see. But, in the past, even Draghi had seemed to question the efficacy of sovereign bond purchases, given the Euro areafs bank based financial system. But, in todayfs speech, he makes a very clear case for asset purchases in general, both via the portfolio balance effect and via signalling channels.

He notes that asset purchases by the central bank disrupt investment portfolios, which forces investors to move from lower risk assets (that are bought by the central bank) to higher risk assets, such as long-term assets, equities and possibly real estate. The resulting increases in asset prices can boost bank lending by improving banksf balance sheets and by raising the householdsf and corporatesf ability (via gains in net worth) and willingness (via improved expectations of the future) to borrow. He adds that portfolio rebalancing across jurisdictions can weaken the currency. And he adds that asset purchases can signal greater determination to return inflation to the target, thereby raising inflation expectations, lowering real interest rates and boosting growth/inflation.

Draghi does admit that there is some uncertainty about the beta on these channels in the Euro area context, but he says that gthere is no question as to the sign of the effect ? it is clearly positiveh. And he adds that experience in the US, Japan and UK suggests that the gmagnitude of portfolio balance effects is a function of the size of the central bankfs balance sheeth. In other words, if the beta turns out to be small, you need to simply buy more, rather than not buy at all. He does not mention sovereign QE specifically and he finishes the section by saying that the ECB is already buying assets that will achieve portfolio rebalancing and signalling effects. But, his reference to the experience in the US, Japan and UK is clearly suggestive that he regards sovereign QE as effective as well. His speech is also remarkable for what it does not mention. He does not mention questions of legality, with regards to sovereign QE. He also does not mention possible side-effects through moral hazard.

What happens next?
Draghi has clearly set out his own view on what needs to be done. A key question is how much traction he gets with other governors. Just a week ago, Bundesbank president Weidmann argued that ggovernment bond purchases harbour major moral hazardh and that gsuch purchases might create new incentives to run up debt, besides adding to the reform fatigue in a number of countriesh. This happens if ggovernments knew that they could rely on the Eurosystem to cap interest ratesh. He adds that sovereign QE is also gquestionable from a legal angleh. He also adds that the effectiveness of QE in the US, UK and Japan ghas been very mixed, and in some cases it [is] still impossible to gauge whether they had been successful or not.h He also argued for a gdegree of calmh about low inflation in the region, and that reforms pay off (as evidenced by Spain and Ireland).

It is not just Weidmann who has made the exact opposite arguments to Draghi. Governor Mersch gave speech this week with a long section about sovereign QE. In a big picture sense, he also worries about moral hazard creating a slippery slope to high inflation (if governments fail to act) and he also says that it is gquestionableh whether sovereign credit risk can be socialised via the ECB balance sheet. He is also not convinced by the effectiveness of QE in a bank-based economic system and as bank lending rates are mostly short-term in the Euro area and not tied directly to market rates. Instead, Mersch would feel gmuch more comfortableh if governments acted via reforms, etc. Finally, his comments also suggest that questions around the ?3 trillion balance sheet gtargeth have still not been fully settled. In particular, he said that balance sheet expansion is neither an gend in itselfh or a gfetishh.

Weidmann and Mersch are of course at the very hawkish end of the spectrum on the Governing Council. It is less clear where many others stand on these issues. For now we continue to assume that the ECB will do more, but that this will take the form of expanding the existing measures (broadening the asset purchases to nonfinancial corporate bonds and supranationals, and enhancing the additional TLTROs). We expect these announcements in 1Q15 and there is a risk that something will be pulled forward to the December meeting (e.g. a pre-announcement of future corporate bond purchases). Regarding sovereign QE, we still think that this is very close (30% likelihood conditional on our growth/inflation forecast and 50-50 unconditionally). Yesterdayfs PMI clearly raises some downside risk to our forecast but, equally, the sovereign QE debate continues to feel polarised. Apart from the economic data, two other things may shape the debate. First, internal work by ECB/Eurosystem committees about future policy options may shape the debate about effectiveness going forward. Second, the Advocate Generalfs report at the ECJ in mid-January about the OMT case may advance the debate on legality.



Link: https://jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-1555926-0


Date: Fri Nov 21 10:20:30 EST 2014

 

[amorgos34]

Il Gilt a 114 è da shortare ad occhi chiusi.

Io lo shorto ad occhi chiusi (ma a chiappe aperte) da quando era , circa 111 (perdo circa 6k a lotto)

Non capisco la differenza esagerata rispetto al T Note10.

Appena montato piccola nuova posizione che scommette (long-short) su un restringimento dello spread tra i due futures.

 

[ferdo]

Oggi bella giornata, solo una nota stonata, per chi indovina un collega offriva un bombolone (senza crema perché c'è crisi)

 

[9/15]

Oggi bella giornata, solo una nota stonata, per chi indovina un collega offriva un bombolone (senza crema perché c'è crisi)

TBond?
Si può integrare il nome del forum?
Q:Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?
A: NO!