Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Inshar ha scritto:
ci starebbe un pò di distribuzione prima di scendere per benino, livello chiave sul dic è 680 che sta resistendo bene
Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
ci starebbe un pò di distribuzione prima di scendere per benino, livello chiave sul dic è 680 che sta resistendo bene
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
August 10, 2007
Wheat Supplies Get Tighter
Wheat reacted negatively to USDA’s crop report as the bullish numbers weren’t as bullish as most thought they’d be. Prices opened lower and quickly ran into more liquidation before staging an impressive comeback to trade slightly higher early in the session. The rest of the day was choppy as it tried to find a direction amid ever-tightening world and US stocks, weakening European prices and plenty of nervousness infiltrating from the financial markets.
USDA’s crop report lowered US wheat production by 24 million bushels (mostly from winter wheat) and lowered US ending stocks by 14 mb to 404 mb. World wheat production was lowered 1.9 MMT to 610 MMT, with world ending stocks down a like amount to 114 MMT. This keeps world stocks at 31-year lows and stocks/use at all-time lows.
While that’s not exactly news to the marketplace, it does continue to underscore the extremes of this wheat situation; and that’s not considering that a growing percentage of the world crop is declining in quality, making the milling stocks situation even more dramatic. European prices have skyrocketed to all-time highs for that very reason - not enough quality stocks to go around, with suppliers caught short and severely squeezed as they had to buy back positions in a market that had very few sellers.
While price action lately has struggled to maintain that high level of upward energy, it still has yet to run into any kind of aggressive, confident selling. Some buyers are still there whether prices break or not, and many show up if prices do pull back. Egypt has been a very consistent buyer with purchases every week.
However, it won’t be lost on the trade that for the last two weeks Egypt’s purchases have gone entirely to Russia. Looks like Russia’s back in the game - and will remain a presence for some time as USDA raised their wheat production .5 MMT along with their exports. Russia has been a fierce competitor in our export market, and they are no doubt eager to take advantage of record high European prices. Even though their prices are higher than US prices, it’s the shipping costs where they have the obvious advantage.
Nevertheless, US export sales continued on a heated pace last week with another 890 TMT sold. Total sales so far this year add up to 13 MMT, almost double last year’s pace of 7 MMT. USDA acknowledged this pace by raising export projections by 25 million bushels to 1.075 billion bushels.
Usually the wheat market doesn’t get too wrapped up in other market activity other than corn and maybe some distant feed grain action. However, the mess the financial markets are finding themselves in could easily spill over to wheat along with the other grains. Not the least of the reasons would be the rising US dollar from the flight to quality we’re seeing, making US products (like wheat) more expensive for importers.
Also, and again not the least of the issues would be the huge fund involvement in the futures markets. With wheat’s long term bull market, funds have a large net long position, as they also do in corn and beans. In addition, the wheat/corn spread is well into all-time highs with plenty of traders waiting to sell that potential fortune-maker.
My point is, bullish fundamentals notwithstanding, wheat could go into a liquidation phase for reasons that don’t exactly fit the supply/demand formulas and leave these price levels behind regardless of world supplies and bullish attitudes. The financial market woes are wide-reaching and if they don’t find stability quickly, everyone will feel their impact, and it won’t be bullish.
Whether wheat prices breach the all-time highs just above us I can’t say, but these prices are great selling levels – even if they do happen to go much higher. And don’t forget about ’08 and ’09 either. Price incentives are huge for another year of increased plantings.
Wheat Supplies Get Tighter
Wheat reacted negatively to USDA’s crop report as the bullish numbers weren’t as bullish as most thought they’d be. Prices opened lower and quickly ran into more liquidation before staging an impressive comeback to trade slightly higher early in the session. The rest of the day was choppy as it tried to find a direction amid ever-tightening world and US stocks, weakening European prices and plenty of nervousness infiltrating from the financial markets.
USDA’s crop report lowered US wheat production by 24 million bushels (mostly from winter wheat) and lowered US ending stocks by 14 mb to 404 mb. World wheat production was lowered 1.9 MMT to 610 MMT, with world ending stocks down a like amount to 114 MMT. This keeps world stocks at 31-year lows and stocks/use at all-time lows.
While that’s not exactly news to the marketplace, it does continue to underscore the extremes of this wheat situation; and that’s not considering that a growing percentage of the world crop is declining in quality, making the milling stocks situation even more dramatic. European prices have skyrocketed to all-time highs for that very reason - not enough quality stocks to go around, with suppliers caught short and severely squeezed as they had to buy back positions in a market that had very few sellers.
While price action lately has struggled to maintain that high level of upward energy, it still has yet to run into any kind of aggressive, confident selling. Some buyers are still there whether prices break or not, and many show up if prices do pull back. Egypt has been a very consistent buyer with purchases every week.
However, it won’t be lost on the trade that for the last two weeks Egypt’s purchases have gone entirely to Russia. Looks like Russia’s back in the game - and will remain a presence for some time as USDA raised their wheat production .5 MMT along with their exports. Russia has been a fierce competitor in our export market, and they are no doubt eager to take advantage of record high European prices. Even though their prices are higher than US prices, it’s the shipping costs where they have the obvious advantage.
Nevertheless, US export sales continued on a heated pace last week with another 890 TMT sold. Total sales so far this year add up to 13 MMT, almost double last year’s pace of 7 MMT. USDA acknowledged this pace by raising export projections by 25 million bushels to 1.075 billion bushels.
Usually the wheat market doesn’t get too wrapped up in other market activity other than corn and maybe some distant feed grain action. However, the mess the financial markets are finding themselves in could easily spill over to wheat along with the other grains. Not the least of the reasons would be the rising US dollar from the flight to quality we’re seeing, making US products (like wheat) more expensive for importers.
Also, and again not the least of the issues would be the huge fund involvement in the futures markets. With wheat’s long term bull market, funds have a large net long position, as they also do in corn and beans. In addition, the wheat/corn spread is well into all-time highs with plenty of traders waiting to sell that potential fortune-maker.
My point is, bullish fundamentals notwithstanding, wheat could go into a liquidation phase for reasons that don’t exactly fit the supply/demand formulas and leave these price levels behind regardless of world supplies and bullish attitudes. The financial market woes are wide-reaching and if they don’t find stability quickly, everyone will feel their impact, and it won’t be bullish.
Whether wheat prices breach the all-time highs just above us I can’t say, but these prices are great selling levels – even if they do happen to go much higher. And don’t forget about ’08 and ’09 either. Price incentives are huge for another year of increased plantings.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
quando l'offerta è scarsa e le scorte ai minimi storici non ci son azzi, quindi bisogna essere preparati a soffrire
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/15/2007
September wheat traded 3 cents higher overnight.
Realization that export demand remains strong despite high prices helped drive the market sharply higher yesterday and again overnight. November futures in Paris matched the previous all-time high, and active buying from Egypt helped support the run to a new 11-year peak in Chicago wheat. After buying Russian wheat and not US wheat for three tenders in a row, Egypt bought 415,000 tonnes from the US and just 25,000 from Russia at the tender yesterday, which helped spark the rally. More importantly, it appears that Russia offered just 30,000 tonnes for the tender, which is an indication that Russia is running low on supply available for export. There are also rumors that India might issue a tender on Friday, which added to the bullish tone yesterday. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts yesterday. Jordan announced a tender for 100,000 tonnes of wheat, and traders believe Iraq will buy up to 200,000 tonnes soon from the US or Canada. The USDA attache in Turkey indicated that wheat production in 2007 will drop to 15.5 million tonnes from 17.5 million tonnes last year due to drought. Drought has also pushed production estimates for Romania to near 3 million tonnes from 5.4 million tonnes last year.
News that Egypt bought 440,000 tonnes of wheat at their tender Monday night with most of the wheat coming from the US supported the sharply higher trade early in the session yesterday. December Kansas City wheat managed a new contract high early in the session, and December Minneapolis wheat matched last week's contract highs. Failure of Chicago wheat to take out last week's high in the early trade and weakness in the other grains led to the setback off of the highs into the mid-session. However, December wheat managed a new contract high late in the session and a new 11-year high for the nearby futures. Soft white wheat cash prices in the Pacific Northwest hit a new record high, with August shipment offers at $7 per bushel or $257 per tonne. Higher trade in Europe, further reductions in wheat crop estimates from France and the Ukraine and news that Iraq would buy up to 200,000 tonnes of Canadian or US wheat this week added to the bullish tone for exports. Egypt bought 415,000 tonnes of US soft red wheat and 25,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. South Korea also bought 47,000 tonnes of US wheat Monday night.
The potential for freezing weather in Argentina over the next few days raises concerns for the winter wheat crop there. Basis levels for soft winter wheat were firmer after Egypt's purchase of US wheat, while hard basis levels were steady. Egypt had purchased from Russia in its previous tenders, as high shipping costs made US wheat uncompetitive, but with dwindling global supplies, the US becomes the one of the last suppliers with available wheat. While the market is in a matured bull trend and the fundamentals of ending stocks and stocks/usage ratios point to a challenge of all-time highs, trend following funds (as of August 7th) were still net long just 7,156 contracts according to the recent Commitment-of-Traders report with options. With solid demand at already high prices, the market appears set to challenge all-time highs. It seems unlikely that the market will top until it is clear that planted area will jump for next year.
September wheat traded 3 cents higher overnight.
Realization that export demand remains strong despite high prices helped drive the market sharply higher yesterday and again overnight. November futures in Paris matched the previous all-time high, and active buying from Egypt helped support the run to a new 11-year peak in Chicago wheat. After buying Russian wheat and not US wheat for three tenders in a row, Egypt bought 415,000 tonnes from the US and just 25,000 from Russia at the tender yesterday, which helped spark the rally. More importantly, it appears that Russia offered just 30,000 tonnes for the tender, which is an indication that Russia is running low on supply available for export. There are also rumors that India might issue a tender on Friday, which added to the bullish tone yesterday. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts yesterday. Jordan announced a tender for 100,000 tonnes of wheat, and traders believe Iraq will buy up to 200,000 tonnes soon from the US or Canada. The USDA attache in Turkey indicated that wheat production in 2007 will drop to 15.5 million tonnes from 17.5 million tonnes last year due to drought. Drought has also pushed production estimates for Romania to near 3 million tonnes from 5.4 million tonnes last year.
News that Egypt bought 440,000 tonnes of wheat at their tender Monday night with most of the wheat coming from the US supported the sharply higher trade early in the session yesterday. December Kansas City wheat managed a new contract high early in the session, and December Minneapolis wheat matched last week's contract highs. Failure of Chicago wheat to take out last week's high in the early trade and weakness in the other grains led to the setback off of the highs into the mid-session. However, December wheat managed a new contract high late in the session and a new 11-year high for the nearby futures. Soft white wheat cash prices in the Pacific Northwest hit a new record high, with August shipment offers at $7 per bushel or $257 per tonne. Higher trade in Europe, further reductions in wheat crop estimates from France and the Ukraine and news that Iraq would buy up to 200,000 tonnes of Canadian or US wheat this week added to the bullish tone for exports. Egypt bought 415,000 tonnes of US soft red wheat and 25,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. South Korea also bought 47,000 tonnes of US wheat Monday night.
The potential for freezing weather in Argentina over the next few days raises concerns for the winter wheat crop there. Basis levels for soft winter wheat were firmer after Egypt's purchase of US wheat, while hard basis levels were steady. Egypt had purchased from Russia in its previous tenders, as high shipping costs made US wheat uncompetitive, but with dwindling global supplies, the US becomes the one of the last suppliers with available wheat. While the market is in a matured bull trend and the fundamentals of ending stocks and stocks/usage ratios point to a challenge of all-time highs, trend following funds (as of August 7th) were still net long just 7,156 contracts according to the recent Commitment-of-Traders report with options. With solid demand at already high prices, the market appears set to challenge all-time highs. It seems unlikely that the market will top until it is clear that planted area will jump for next year.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
i funds stanno liquidando anche sui grains, soya in limit dwn e ce ne vuole, il wheat è naturalmente quello che riesce a stare più sù ,nella lontana ipotesi che vada in limit dwn pronto a prenderlo su dic dato che mar sta occupato sul WC
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
come andare a 2-3 cent dal limit dw e rimbalzare di 25 punti 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ditropan ha scritto:... chiuso tutta la soia ad 804,5 e pure il bean oil a 35 e 34,9 ... col senno di poi ho fatto pure bene ... certo che il wheat è proprio una bestia nera !
bravo vecio
sui limit si fanno sempre buoni affari, anche oggi che sembrava si mettesse male la soya poi si è fatta 20 punti all'insù prima di tornare ad essere schiacciata
ditropan
Forumer storico
Alla fine non ce l'ho fatta a resistere e sono rientrato ... sul luglio 2008 però e con soli (.. soli per dire) 10 pezzi.
Dopo tanto che la seguo mi voglio togliere la soddisfazione di accompagnarla in basso sui 700 come dice skipper ...
... o per lo meno voglio crederci.
Chiaro che questi contratti li considero di medio-lungo periodo, l'idea è di tenerli fino a dicembre. Poi magari sapendo come son fatto non appena ti vedo gli 800 vendo tutto e porto a casa.
Dopo tanto che la seguo mi voglio togliere la soddisfazione di accompagnarla in basso sui 700 come dice skipper ...
... o per lo meno voglio crederci.
Chiaro che questi contratti li considero di medio-lungo periodo, l'idea è di tenerli fino a dicembre. Poi magari sapendo come son fatto non appena ti vedo gli 800 vendo tutto e porto a casa.
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