Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

[Fleursdumal]

DJ CBOT Corn Outlook:3-4c Higher On Overnight Gains, Wheat

By Joe Poncer

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade corn futures are predicted to
start trading 3-to-4 cents higher Thursday, underpinned by the gains
established in overnight activity and the sharp rally in wheat futures in the
overnight session, analysts said.

In overnight electronic trading, September corn gained 3 cents to $3.25 3/4
per bushel and December rose 2 1/2 cents to $3.42 3/4. E-CBOT volume in
December was 21,849 contracts.

Corn was higher overnight and should begin daytime trading higher as well
given the gains in wheat futures, an analyst said. In overnight trading
December wheat rose 23 cents to $7.81 1/2. Better-than-expected weekly corn
export sales might also add support, the analyst said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported weekly corn export sales were 1.6
million metric tons for the week ended Aug. 23. Included in this total were
sales of 173,000 tons for delivery in the 2006-07 marketing year. Analysts had
expected sales between 700,000-1.2 million metric tons.

The export sales should supply some support for corn, a commission house
analyst said. However, the impending increase in supplies as the harvest fast
approaches will limit the gains in the market, with the weather favorable for
harvest activities, the analyst said.

Warmer and drier weather is likely in the next seven days, helping conditions
improve in the northern and western areas of the U.S. Midwest, DTN Meteorlogix
Weather said.

In the western U.S. Midwest mainly dry weather is forecast through Saturday
with temperatures averaging near-to-above-normal Friday and Saturday.

In the eastern U.S. Midwest mainly dry weather is expected Friday and
Saturday with temperatures averaging near-to-slightly below normal in the
period, Meteorlogix Weather said.

In the 6-to-10 day forecast, temperatures are expected to average
near-to-above normal and rainfall is forecast to average near-to-above normal
north and near-to-below normal south.

On daily technical charts, December corn closed at a fresh two-week low and
near the session low on Wednesday, a technical analyst said. The U.S. corn
harvest is starting and that is seasonally bearish. The lack of fresh bullish
news is also limiting upward price movement, the analyst said. The bulls' next
upside price objective is to push prices above solid resistance above $3.50 in
December with the bears' next objective closing prices below support at $3.36.

First resistance for December corn is seen at $3.46 3/4 and then at $3.50.
First support is seen at Wednesday's low of $3.39 and then at $3.35.

In other corn news, corn futures on China's Dalian Commodities Exchange
settled modestly higher with the benchmark May contract up CNY/17 at CNY1,623
per metric ton.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Wheat Surges Again to New Highs

The wheat complex surged higher again this week, again making new contract highs in Chicago early in the week, with Kansas City finally catching up late on Friday. Minneapolis is still lagging as it has yet to breach its contract high established in mid-August.

The price action continues to set new records. While the front month has not taken out the all-time high established with the expiry of the March ’96 Chicago contract, the more heavily traded December certainly has and does not show any serious sign of topping. The Chicago/Kansas City spread also reached a new all-time high with a settlement of 51 cents over. And, of course, the wheat/corn spread continues to defy gravity as it also shows no sign of peaking.

We can look to the W/KW spread and its price action toward the end of the week as a possible sign that at least that relationship has maxed out. Despite the volatile trade on Thursday, Kansas City kept pace with Chicago, and on Friday actually narrowed the spread. Word is that some Egyptian sales might be switched to hard red winter because of the cheaper price. That talk alone suggests that the spread has gone far enough. While it’s true that supplies of soft red winter wheat are very tight, hard red isn’t far behind and supplies will have to be rationed there as well.

High prices attract all kinds of sellers, but they can also detract sellers, as is the case in Russia – of all countries. With record high wheat prices, Russian domestic bread prices have kept pace. With an election coming up, political pressure has led to talk that Russia may restrict exports, forcing domestic wheat and bread prices lower. The irony is that world prices would be pushed higher as Russia is currently the only other major exporter besides the US. The uncertainty of potential restrictions alone is already slowing the pace of Russian sales.

And speaking of exports, there’s little slow down, if any, of US sales as another week of 1 MMT plus sales went on the books. The trade was at least expecting this big number as it was aware of the 415,000 sale to Egypt. Nevertheless, this blistering pace is still double last year’s pace with no evidence that $7 plus wheat is having a rationing effect. It’s difficult to say that these record high prices are high enough when buyers are still paying the price, albeit reluctantly. Take India, for example, a country that shunned prices about $2 ago who came back to the market with a different tack, taking some strategies from the Egyptian playbook. They issued a tender for monthly imports instead of just one large sale, but we haven’t yet learned the amounts or who gets the business.

Canada added more weight to the bullish argument with their Stats Canada report projecting wheat production at 20.3 MMT, down 20% from last year, and 1.2 MMT lower than USDA’s recent estimate. Then the IGC (International Grains Council) chimed in with their world wheat production estimate down 7 MMT from July. This year certainly holds to the axiom that short crops keep getting shorter.

Now, the trade moves the focus to the Southern Hemisphere where rains have come in time for most Australian crops. But those crops are living on surface moisture alone and timely rains are a must. Argentina is also in generally dry conditions but still too early in its growing season to do any damage.

Technically, wheat had three gaps last week, the last one which propelled us to new highs was closed that same day, but the market still closed higher for the day and thus not a blow off type of gap failure. While we’ve not taken out that minor spike high from that day, the market has not exhibited the exhaustion type of trade we would expect to see at all-time highs. And so we wait, acknowledging that we’ve seen some indication of the acceleration phase but not enough evidence of a top. It appears to me that the bull market is still intact, but I do think it’s very close to a top both in price and time.

 

[masconti]

Sono d'accordo con te, e devo esserlo perchè le mie posizioni sugli spreads che ho postato cominciano ad essere pesanti,soprattutto per il WZ/CZ (~100 cents)
E' probabile che una apertura alta in gap (molto probabile visto l'overnight) faccia da molla pe un bel sell-off.
Quello che mi preoccupa è il COT sul chicago wheat: le strong hands sono lunghe, i commercials sono praticamente flat e i piccoli sono shorts: con i commercials al palo, 50% lunghi e 50% corti la battaglia è impari e i piccoli probailmente saranno tirati a comprare per ricoprirsi.
Il quadro del COT sul Kansas è invece equilibrato fra i commercial short e i big speculator long.
Vediamo

 

[Fleursdumal]

questo il COT uscito venerdì scorso e riferito al martedì precedente

vedendo l'OI di ieri e riferendolo a quello del COT c'è una diminuzione di circa 15k, immagino tutte chiusure di piccoli

 

[Fleursdumal]

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/30/2007

December wheat traded 23 cents higher in the overnight trading session.

The market continues to find solid buying support from end user demand and from commercial traders scrambling to cover positions. In addition, some new buying from funds and short covering from speculators has helped drive US and European wheat prices to record highs. South Korea millers now seek 87,200 tonnes of US wheat and traders await a decision from India on how much of the 530,000 tonnes in offers from their import tender they will accept. After disappointing production from the US, Europe and Canada, traders were counting on a large crop from Australia and Argentina this season, but rain is needed badly in some areas of Australia or crop production ideas will begin to deteriorate rapidly. Argentina is also too dry and some of the intended planted area was not even planted. European wheat futures posted all-time highs at 252.5 euros/tonne overnight. In the last USDA supply/demand update, world ending stocks were pegged at 114.8 million tonnes for the 2007/2008 season, a 26-year low. In the India tender, officials received offers on supplying 530,000 tonnes with a range of prices of $385-$434 per tonne including cost and freight. This comes out at $10.47-$11.81 per bushel and will certainly be a test of demand from India on "how bad" they need wheat. India production is estimated at 74.89 million tonnes from 69.48 million tonnes last year when India was an aggressive importer. Traders believe India will accept the offers under $400/tonne.

New highs for French milling wheat futures and continued concerns for tightness ahead helped to support the market overnight Tuesday and into the open yesterday. The market gained throughout yesterday's session, eventually trading to new contract highs. Ideas that the spring wheat harvest pressures are winding down and that end users are caught without coverage helped provide underlying support. Strength in the outside markets and some growing concerns for dryness in Australia added to the positive tone.

Dry weather persists in Argentina, where more rain is needed to as the winter wheat crop there emerges from dormancy. Australia looks mostly dry as well for the next week with growing concerns increasing. Basis was steady. South Korean flour millers are tendering to buy 63,400 tonnes of US wheat tomorrow and another 23,800 after that, and Taiwan is tendering to buy 46,000 tonnes US wheat next week. For the weekly export sales report, to be released before the open, traders are looking for wheat sales to come in at 700,000-1.1 million tonnes versus 1,058,500 tonnes reported last week. Demand remains strong and southern hemisphere weather adds to the bullish tone.

 

[Inshar]

Non ho parole
781

 

[Inshar]

Non ho parole
781

a meno che non stia vedendo male, non ho il real time e non capisco, un sito mi da 760 un altro 781.50

 

[Inshar]

purtroppo il quote esatto era 781, e anche piu su
ma cosa state facendo voi? intendo gli short
in particolare ditro che aveva tanti contratti

 

[masconti]

Ho chiuso lo spread WZ/CZ poco fa. Perso deciso sul Weath, modesto guadagno sul Corn. Non volevo incorrere in un margin call anche perchè sarò via da domani a giovedì.
Lascio aperti sia pure in moderata perdita i KWZ/WZ.
Vedrò se entrare short sul WZ o riaprire il W/C.

 

[Fleursdumal]

mostruoso, entrato sul limit up fatico ad accettare l'idea di uscire in barbonaggio assoluto
lo soya sta tenendo bardone mentre il corn è cotto e sto iniziando a pensare di shortarmi il dic dato che il mar ce l'ho impegnato nel WC

Mid-Session Wheat Market Report for 8/30/2007

December wheat opened 2 1/4 cents higher on the session at 760 3/4 and established an early range of 759 1/2 to 788 1/2. Once again, the action this morning took the market to new contract and all-time highs. Strong export sales coupled with technical strength contributed to today's higher opening and subsequent gains. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 1,231,900 metric tonnes, which was above trade expectations calling for 700,000-1,100,000. Cumulative sales have reached 56.6% of the USDA forecast as compared to 37.1% on average over the last five years. Sales of 316,600 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. Tight world supplies have kept buyers interested despite high prices, and potential problems in Southern Hemisphere crops, especially if Australia and Argentina don't get rain in the next 4-6 weeks, add to the supply concerns.