Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

[gipa69]

"With regards to the Bloomberg story on wheat, this is the same bearish argument as they had last week. The price of wheat should go down because there will be lots of it by next summer. These people should get the Nobel prize for eradicating world hunger. You simply feed next year's wheat to today's starving . It's called pre-eating. With the Australian crop being the latest to implode (from 26 mln. tons to 11) the world balance sheet is totally broken, and someone somewhere will have to do without. Last week there were food riots in Morocco, because of a 30 % increase in the price of wheat. Within 5 days, Morocco bought 350,000 tons. You can't substitute enough rice, because the world rice stocks are at 30 year lows, just like wheat. Given an exorbitant price and rioting people, guess what governments do? To give you an idea how precarious the U.S. wheat balance sheet is , U.S. export sales are now almost 24 mln. tons, out of a projected 29 mln, with fully 8 months left in the crop year. Between now and next summer the available exportable supplies from all origins are far below the import appetite, even at these prices . At the current pace we will be sold out in less than 3 weeks. And that will put U.S. stocks at minimum pipeline levels. Durum wheat recently traded in the U.S at $ 17.50 a bushel. No, that is not a typo. I hope the Bloomberg crowd don't plan to eat pasta next spring, because that price tells me that there may not be any."

 

[Fleursdumal]

 

[Fleursdumal]

A guardare gli OI stanno chiudendo i long su dic e aprendo contestualmente short sulle scandenze lontane
Oggi barbonato qualcosa sul dic in long in overnight dove dal quasi limitdwn si è passati ad andare marginalmente in verde , vola alle stelle e adrenalina a mille
chiuso anche uno spread W Kansas - W Chicago su dic e con questi due trades mi porto il WC H vicino ai 500
mantengo qualche calendar sul W chicago , dato che si stanno chiudendo alla velocità della luce
la luce è sul supply&demand report di venerdì

October 8, 2007

The Black Sea Steps Up

Wheat markets turned lower after setting another new all-time high either last week or the previous week (depending on the market), buckling under the pressure of bear spreading from a growing cadre of those who believe the market has finally topped.

Sunday’s night session and again on Monday saw heavy selling pressure continue as the market factors in the Australian drought, a much weaker European market, increased export competition emerging from the Black Sea, and a more negative technical outlook.

The major recent driver of these sky high prices has been unrelenting demand as countries lined up to buy what they could, exacerbated by another disastrous year in Australia. And the US got most of the export business, as Russia was slow to develop the rules for their threatened export tariff and other countries’ supplies were too tight to offer for export.

Now the game has changed. Russia finally stated their rules and the market promptly responded. Looks like a 10% tariff will do little to slow their pace of sales, especially to countries where they have a huge freight advantage – like Egypt and other North African countries where much of the recent business with the US had been done. Rumors that some of those recent US sales were being cancelled didn’t help the mentality of the bulls, either.

So we come into this week under pressure again and with the bulls on the run. We’re back testing the consolidation range of a month ago, and the critical support levels of those lows will likely be the ultimate determining factor of whether this market is just correcting or if, indeed, long term highs are in.

There is a supply/demand report out on Friday, but wheat numbers will reflect the small grains report from last month, so the market expects few surprises for US wheat numbers. World numbers will be the focus, as USDA will try to fine tune Australian production, and make adjustments to other regions.

Kazakhstan claims to have much more wheat than USDA last estimated, we’ll see if any changes are made for them. Australian officials are already talking roughly 12 MMT; last month USDA pegged them at 21 MMT, we’ll see if USDA can make that sharp of a drop in one month (doubtful).

For the wheat complex, it’s just that – complex. There’s probably not one person remotely associated with the wheat market that isn’t aware of the record tight world supplies, hence $9.50 wheat. But what’s next? Can the market sustain those price levels until the new crop comes along? There’s little doubt we’ll see more winter wheat acres, but what about spring wheat acres? There are many other choices for North Dakota and Canadian producers.

Is the export picture changing significantly? Have buyers secured enough for their needs until their new crop? Will they make good on their contracts or are there cancellations on the way? And what about the Black Sea, are they about to spoil another bull party?

 

[Sharnin 2]

Salviamo l'agricoltura sarda

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/topic-redirect-vp523944.html#523944

 

[Fleursdumal]

a leggere bene gli OI eod continua la liquidazione dei long sul dic e l'apertura di short su mar e oltre
da notare e sottolineare il fatto che con Imiweb è impossibile da giorni operare online per motivi tecnici
ma che azzo aspettano a collegarsi all'elettronico e a dare overnight? ormai alle grida son rimasti a scambiare solo 4 gatti , boh letteralmente incomprensibile a meno di non pensare a male , ovvio che poi si operi con altro , anche se una IW più efficente farebbe sempre comodo

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 10/10/2007

December wheat traded 10 3/4 cents higher in the overnight session.

The market continues to see fairly aggressive selling late in the day to drive the market off of the recent all-time highs. Ideas that buyers are close to covering all of their short-term needs and fears of a surge in production around the world continues to limit the buying. Egypt tendered to buy 55,000-60,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. The weekly crop updates showed that producers have planted 58% of the winter wheat crop compared to 65% last year and the 10 year average for this time of year at 62%. Kansas plantings jumped to 56% complete from 35% the previous week. Agronomists and traders see a jump of 10-20% in several key states for planted area in response to record high prices this year. The Russian Agriculture Minister revised the 2007 grain crop to 80 million tonnes from 79 million previous but left exports unchanged near 12 million tonnes. He also indicated that he would sign an order today or Thursday introducing export tariffs on wheat and barley. India total grain stocks on October 1st were at 15.6 million tonnes from 16.2 million targeted and from 10.1 million tonnes last year. Funds were noted sellers of near 3,000 contracts yesterday. Turkey issued a tender to buy 280,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of durum. Morocco will tender later this month to buy 260,000 tonnes of soft wheat.

The market closed sharply lower for the 4th session in a row yesterday for December wheat, while July wheat closed higher in 4 of the past 5 trading sessions. The break to 835 for December wheat appeared to have attracted increased buying interest from end users and ideas from speculators that the initial break off of the all-time highs ($1.26 3/4) has put the market in an oversold technical condition. New crop July wheat is leading the market higher as the spread activity and a shift in focus to the new crop situation helped support the July. Jordon bought 125,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and Taiwan is tendering to buy 88,690 tonnes of US wheat. In addition, Taiwan is tendering to buy 62,800 tonnes of US wheat. Tunisia has tendered to buy 92,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat and 75,000 tonnes of durum. Turkey announced a tender to buy 280,000 tonnes of soft wheat. Some areas of Australia received rain overnight but more may be needed to stabilize losses ahead of harvest. Weekly export inspections, released during the session, showed wheat exports at 31.5 million bushels, which was within trade expectations. Cumulative shipments have already reached 44.6% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 35% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Shipments need to average 17.8 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection.

NOAA issued a forecast for warmer than normal conditions for the winter for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country and for drier than normal weather for much of the southern US due to a developing La Nina. Basis at the Gulf held firm yesterday on strong export demand. For the USDA supply/demand report for Friday morning traders are looking for 2007/08 ending stocks to come in near 289 million bushels (range 211-355) as compared with 362 million posted in the September USDA report. S

 

[Fleursdumal]

oggi son scattate le inevitabili ricoperture in vista di domani, io mi son accattato un long sul dic per limit up , stop 5 sotto a 65

 

[Fleursdumal]

ok limit up quasi sul close , metto in cascina 13 cents che togliendo comm e cg scalo dal fottuto WC portando il pdc a 508
l'avevo quasi riacciuffato dopo essere stato anche 7k sotto ma basta una giornata come oggi per rivederlo 30 sopra

domani quasi quasi spero in limitup nell' overnight in modo da entrare e poi sfruttare la vola post supply&demand , chi vivrà vedrà e bestemmierà

 

[Fleursdumal]

il solito pazzesco ottovolante col WC che ha recuperato i 30 persi ieri per qualche minuto son stato addirittura in gain è ancora presto per suonare il requiem con l'onore delle armi alla bestia però se , seeeee sottolineo seeee oggi chiude basso possiamo iniziare a guardare al futuro con più fiducia con progetti di piramide a seguire

Mid-Session Wheat Market Report for 10/12/2007

December wheat opened 4 cents lower on the session at 879 and established an early range of 853 to 880 1/4. The market was called higher on the session but ideas that the report was not bullish enough to assume a test of the highs sparked aggressive new selling and a lack of new buying interest drove the market to limit-down before a bounce. The USDA pegged US 2007/08 all wheat production at 2.067 billion bushels, down from 2.114 last month. US ending stocks were pegged at 307 million bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 289 million bushels (range 211-355) as compared with 362 million posted in the September USDA report. World wheat production came in at 600.47 million tonnes from 606.24 million posted last month. The USDA lowered its Australian production estimate to 13.5 million tonnes from 21 million last month. World wheat ending stocks came in at 106.97 million tonnes as compared with 112.36 million tonnes posted last month and 122.72 million tonnes last year. This is the lowest world ending stocks figure since 1975. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 1.343 million tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 1.1 -1.4 million. Cumulative sales have reached 79.5% of the USDA forecast as compared to 49.9% on average over the last five years. Sales of 188,000 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. With India government officials indicating that wheat stocks are comfortable and rains in Australia helping to give traders a sense that the production will stabilize near the correct USDA estimate, the market saw a lack of new buying support on the initial break.

 

[giomf]

.


Che si dice qui . . ?



Su quali commodities intervenire questa settimana . . ?


.

 

[Fleursdumal]

.


Che si dice qui . . ?






.

che l' sard s'ammangiarn l'alisc

qui si sta zitti e mosca

dovesse finire il magic moment