Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

[Fleursdumal]

Buone news dalla Russia e si continua col vento in poppa , si può iniziare a pensare a una piramide a seguire , anyway meglio sempre restare con i piedi per terra dato che la bestiaWC in due gg può rimbalzare di 60c come ha fatto tra venerdì e lunedì

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 10/24/2007

December wheat traded 16 cents lower in the overnight session.

News that Russia will not boost the export tariff to 30% for now helped spark the selling pressure overnight. The Russian Agriculture Minister overnight said that Russia will only raise grain export duties after the country's grain export potential for the 2007/08 season is exhausted. Russia planned to export near 12 million tonnes. This news is disappointing to the bulls and sparked long liquidation selling. In addition, the weak close yesterday attracted increased technical selling. Russia still plans to introduce a 10% export tariff on November 12th. Funds were noted sellers of near 4,000 contracts yesterday as a lack of news on the Russian situation helped spark a long liquidation mode for the wheat market. In addition, a private research firm in Russia (SovEcon) raised their forecast for Russian wheat production to 47-48.25 million tonnes from a previous 45-47 million tonne forecast. On top of the Russian news, there is increased talk that flour mills in Toledo are importing soft red wheat from Canada which helped pressure the December futures and caused December to lose to other months on the spreads. South Korea seeks 24,000 tonnes of US wheat.

Profit-taking selling accelerated into the mid-session to drive December futures limit down for part of the afternoon yesterday, as a lack of new buying interest and increased selling late had the market closing limit down. Ideas that Russia could slap on export tariffs on wheat and a weak US dollar helped spark the early bounce and a positive tone for the outside markets was also seen as supportive. However, a lack of new news from Russia on the tariff issue combined with a slide in outside market forces helped spark a sharp sell-off into the mid-session. Ideas that the market is overbought and continued concerns that the world will see a massive production of wheat in 2008 due to record high prices this year helped spark some selling as well. A lack of news from Russia has created uncertainty which added to the tendency for long liquidation selling.

Some areas of the southwestern plains still need moisture. Too much rain into the wheat harvest in Australia could be an issue soon. Basis at the Gulf was steady but cash dealers were disappointed that the 30 cent drop in futures failed to attract new interest from key importers. The potential to see extremely tight cash markets into late this year and the aggressive export sales pace are supportive factors but there is increased focus on the surge in planted area around the world. The market should remain extremely sensitive to export news and weather. Specs continue to hold a huge net short.

 

[Fleursdumal]

un rimbalzo , specie con $ in caduta libera e il crudo ormai a 100$/barile, ci stava tutto ma non penso durerà molto
se WC a 400 se ne apre un altro

November 5, 2007

Wheat Unable to Sustain Rallies

Wheat started the week on a very positive note with limit up price action on another round of US dollar pressure and soaring commodity prices. However, as the week wore on, prices wore out and limit up wheat turned into limit down wheat later in the week.

Even despite some bullish news last week of a boost in world demand, the wheat complex found little positive price action and even less follow-through buying enthusiasm on a report from India that they would be seeking another 1 MMT in the near future, and from a number of other countries stepping up with tender or at least tender announcements.

Egypt made two significant purchases within a week’s time, the first from Russia for 190 TMT, and the second from Russia, US and Canada totaling 275 TMT. Of that, only 60 each went to the US and Canada. Despite the confusion in the last few weeks regarding Russia export tariff rate, they remain very aggressive exporters and the settlement of only 10% tariff will do little to slow that pace.

Therefore, the Black Sea will remain a fierce competitor in this export arena for some time with both Russia and Kazakhstan having plenty of wheat for sale and very willing to be the lowest price sellers. Ukraine announced they would delay rescinding their export tariff until Jan 1. That did little to move the market since they have little for sale this year anyway.

The export sales picture for the US hit a wall last week as only 180 TMT were sold the previous week, the lowest for the marketing year and just 1/3 of the lowest estimate. The report did include some cancellations, which is a very important factor to monitor. If the aggressive buying as prices were hitting all-time highs turns into more cancellations, then there will certainly be more price pressure to come as a result.

After the blistering pace to start the marketing year, our sales have clearly slowed down as competition steps up and transportation costs skyrocket. With the high cost of fuel, it actually costs more now for the US to land wheat in Egypt than it did when wheat prices were at all-time highs.

That harsh reality will certainly have a role as we move forward. Despite a weaker dollar making it cheaper to buy the actual wheat, the cheaper dollar makes crude oil more expensive which offsets the cheaper wheat. And the dollar shows few signs of making a stand against the onslaught of negative economic news and the continual interest rate declines.

The Southern Hemisphere is full swing into harvest with Australia roughly 15% complete. Ironically, some of their harvest has been delayed because of rain, of all things. Nothing like salt on the wound. Argentina is in the early stages of their harvest, looking at a very good crop coming and preparing for their export program.

Wheat conditions here in the US continue to show very different situations. The dry pocket of the southwest plains continues to miss important moisture and crops are in serious stress. Emergence is spotty and establishment will be weak as it heads into dormancy in those regions. Interestingly, however, most of the rest of the plains look good and have an adequate moisture base with good establishment. And so another production season begins with Mother Nature keeping things interesting.

 

[Fleursdumal]

supply&demand senza sorprese

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194

 

[Fleursdumal]

con il crudo a 100$ e il dollaro in picchiata anche un dead grain walking come il wheat non può esimersi dal riprendersi , sul mar potrebbe spuntare fuori dal ripido canale ribassista
si continua a tenere con tranquillità
altre note positive dallo spread S N-X8 , dove il meglio ancora è da vedere

DJ US Wheat Reviewoars On Outside Mkt Strength, Tech Buying

By Andrew Johnson Jr
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. wheat futures soared Tuesday, continuing to
consolidate recent losses on technical buying and spillover support from
soybeans and outside market influences.

December CBOT wheat ended 17 1/4 cents higher at $7.73 1/2, December KCBT
wheat settled 19 1/4 cents higher at $8.00 1/4, and December MGE wheat finished
26 cents higher at $8.58.

The market has been oversold for a while, and with selling interest seemingly
exhausted, futures settled into a consolidative theme until it determines if
demand has been generated or not, said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst
with Prudential Financial in Chicago.

The market attempted to push prices lower initially, and its inability to
challenge Monday's lows served as a signal that selling was exhausted,
McCambridge added.

Overall activity was light in thin holiday action, as traders took the
opportunity to square up a few positions heading the abbreviated trading
sessions for the remainder of the week, analysts added.

Meanwhile, new crop contracts received modest support from declining crop
ratings, as dryness continues to pressure crop development in the southern
winter wheat belt, analysts said. The DTN Meteorlogix Weather forecast said the
end of this week features the first winter storm system of the season in the
far southern Plains and Texas Panhandle region. This storm will bear close
monitoring for the potential of bringing several inches of snow and strong
winds to Southern Plains wheat and livestock areas.

In Argentina, showers will benefit both row crops and winter wheat. Wheat
areas need rain after recent stress brought on by a couple nights of
unseasonably cold weather last week.

In other news, Argentina exported 116,428 metric tons of wheat in September,
down 77% from the 497,121 tons shipped during the same month a year earlier,
the latest Agriculture Secretariat data show. Brazil was by far the leading
importer of Argentine wheat in September, purchasing 105,550 tons.

In CBOT pit trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various
commission houses, with speculative fund buying estimated at 2,000 lots.

KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE


KCBT wheat futures ended higher, buoyed by the combination of sharply higher
outside markets and declining crop ratings, analysts said. The new crop KCBT
wheat futures garnered support from ratings declines, as crop conditions in the
big three states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas continue to struggle,
McCambridge said.

Otherwise, technically based buying was featured, as the market continues to
correct off last weeks lows, a KCBT floor broker said. Active trade in the
December/March spread was featured as well, with the spreading winding out to
15 cents before settling at 14 1/2 cents, he added.

MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE


MGE wheat futures ended higher in step with the gains in other wheat futures.
Light hedge pressure was reported early, but end user buying later in the day
helped lift futures to session highs. Traders said there was decent amount of
spread trade, with the liquidation of December contracts featured as well as
options related buying, traders added.

 

[Fleursdumal]

ok tranquillità passa a controllo attento
aspettiamo un limit up
piccolo long su may da 857 stop 52
se e quando ci arriva riapro lo short su mar

 

[Fleursdumal]

certo per salire con petrolio e mp in ritraccio controcorrente solo per delle notizie di non ben quantificati danni in Argentina


November 26, 2007

Wheat Surges Higher

The wheat complex exploded higher last week, quickly taking us back to the swing highs and gaps from late October. Additional business from India and Pakistan along with increasing concerns about stressed wheat in the US and Argentina contributed to two volatile, holiday shortened sessions which saw limit up trade both days.

Argentina appears to have at least some degree of frost damage to wheat in the key state of Buenos Aires where wheat was in the filling stage when temps dropped into the high 20’s. While Argentina estimates just slight damage, it’s very difficult to quantify actual losses at this point. The market, of course, is ultra sensitive to anyone’s losses, and Argentina was expected to have a bumper crop that is just making its way to the world pipeline. While the damage is generally expected to be small, it will have to be harvest before we see just what the losses are.

We also are continuing to monitor the conditions in our own central/southern plains, with the dryness in the west expanding as the crop heads into dormancy. There is no lack of winter weather predictions, but suffice it to say that the US hard red winter wheat crop is more vulnerable to winter kill and will need early and timely rains in the spring to have a chance at normal production. Crop condition ratings fell again last week to just 45% good/excellent, compared to 57% last year. Kansas was rated at 40%, compared to 55% last year.

US export sales have recovered nicely the last couple of weeks, with respectable sales and, more importantly, no major cancellations. World business has seen a pickup as well, with Pakistan buying from the US and Canada, and India sealing a deal on 342,000 from what appears to be Russia. They’ve issued another tender for 350,000, which would take them to 2/3 of their announced plans to import another 1 MMT before their harvest starts in March. It is expected that Russia will delay increasing their export tax until January at the earliest which has prompted more aggressive offers from Russia and thus raised their domestic prices as well.

Technically, the market finally responded to the base of support built around the 100-day moving average. When it looked like prices would finally get a sustained rally off of that base, there was a surge of short covering and spread unwinding which pressured the row crops that had been the long leg and also created major bull spreading in the wheat complex itself.

It is still very interesting to note that despite a few days of the bull spread performing, it’s the new crop months that have surged and/or gapped into new contract highs. Those months never had the weakness of the old crop due mostly to their huge inverses. And now with the rally on the fronts, even with the spread action, we see the new crop months continue to perform well. And I think they will continue to hold their values very well until the market feels comfortable with what new crop production will be.

Granted, we have plenty of additional planted wheat acres worldwide – mostly in soft wheat regions. The prospect of a huge world wheat crop next year is very real. However, that could have been the case in 2007 as well, but weather got in the way. Given the precarious stocks levels, I think the market will keep new crop prices strong until we’re past the critical growing points of next year’s crop – which would take us to mid April at the earliest. Old crop futures can do lots of things given the volatility of the wheat complex and outside markets, but new crop will have to protect tight old crop supplies, acres, and also maintain the weather premium.

 

[Fleursdumal]

all right
non riapro unka su mar ,lì rimango solo con il WC storico
piuttosto ci si sposta su may , dove il WC è a soli 20c dal massimo
anche il calendar may-jun è tornato a 30c dal massimo

 

[Fleursdumal]

assolutamente folle wheat
apertura che lasciava immaginare limitdwn , recupero totale e punta verso l'alto
l'aspetto positivo è che nell'intraday è relativamente facile prendere l'onda
le scadenze del nuovo raccolto poi , rotta la fase congestiva , si son fatte 100c tutte d'un fiato e va a vedere che arrivano prima loro in limitup oggi
settimana prossima dati sui raccolti dell'altro emisfero
provato con un long sul may da 785 stop 80
chiuso il WC storico su mar prima che riprenda i 500 , che mi rompe er ca aver bruciato 130c , riaprirò un WC con W su may e C su mar , il W may sta perdendo il premio sul mar , mentre il C may potrebbe prenderlo se mai il C si deciderà a partire stile wheat

 

[ditropan]

assolutamente folle wheat
apertura che lasciava immaginare limitdwn , recupero totale e punta verso l'alto
l'aspetto positivo è che nell'intraday è relativamente facile prendere l'onda
le scadenze del nuovo raccolto poi , rotta la fase congestiva , si son fatte 100c tutte d'un fiato e va a vedere che arrivano prima loro in limitup oggi
settimana prossima dati sui raccolti dell'altro emisfero
provato con un long sul may da 785 stop 80
chiuso il WC storico su mar prima che riprenda i 500 , che mi rompe er ca aver bruciato 130c , riaprirò un WC con W su may e C su mar , il W may sta perdendo il premio sul mar , mentre il C may potrebbe prenderlo se mai il C si deciderà a partire stile wheat

chissà perchè ogni volta che lo vedo mi viene il vomito.

questa mattina batteva -1,5%, lo rivedo adesso a +2,5% !

... io intanto oggi mi sono chiuso qualche roussel + giornata fatta con calma scalpando l'eura. ... ogni volta che lo vedo questo wheat mi si torcono le budella !

 

[Fleursdumal]

prontamente tornato in rosso ma vaffa miravo al l up mi son dovuto prendere di corsa almeno 10c quando è ridisceso a piombo
l'adrenalina qui non manca di certo