Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Qualche tabella per chi soffre d'insonnia (per il caldo ... 
)
CRimages: Five Year Default Probabilities
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/07/sovereign-defaults-1820-to-1920.html
CRimages: Sovereign Defaults 1921 to 1980
CRimages: Sovereign Defaults 1981 to 2003
Tra tutte le nazioni (anche la virtuosissima Germania) manca solo l'Italia ...
)CRimages: Five Year Default Probabilities
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/07/sovereign-defaults-1820-to-1920.html
CRimages: Sovereign Defaults 1921 to 1980
CRimages: Sovereign Defaults 1981 to 2003
Tra tutte le nazioni (anche la virtuosissima Germania) manca solo l'Italia ...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece's debt auction
An uneasy calm
Panic about the euro zone has receded—for now
Jul 15th 2010
MOST people are not satisfied with mediocrity. But Greece’s auction of six-month treasury bills on July 13th turned inferiority into a cause for celebration. The beleaguered country managed to raise €1.6 billion ($2 billion) at a yield of 4.65% in its first venture into the markets since a €110 billion rescue package from the European Union and the IMF was secured in May.
That is hardly dazzling. The yield was still higher than when Greece issued similar paper in April, before the bail-out package was announced, and over three times what it was in January. Germany’s one-year bills yield ten times less than Greece’s six-month ones (see chart). Short-term bill auctions to roll over maturing debt are encouraged in the deal reached by Greece, the EU and the fund but the threat of an eventual debt restructuring makes investors unwilling to lend for long. Greece’s public-debt agency was forced to drop plans to auction 12-month bills. It is unlikely that Greece will attempt a sale of longer-term bonds before early 2012, and it may find few willing buyers even then because of the country’s increased debt burden.
The auction was nevertheless a relief. The yield was lower than the 5% interest rate Greece pays when it taps into the EU support package. The auction was 3.64 times oversubscribed. Although it was mostly a domestic affair, Petros Christodoulou, the debt agency’s director, says he was “pleasantly surprised by foreign investors’ demand”. Greece will try to raise up to €2.5 billion in an issue of three-month paper on July 20th.
Greece has also been getting pats on the back from its EU and IMF lenders for its progress on fiscal consolidation. George Papaconstantinou, the finance minister, this week announced that the country’s first-half budget deficit had been cut by 46% compared with last year, beating targets. On July 8th the Greek parliament passed a pension-reform bill which, if properly implemented, will radically change the country’s lavish social-security system. Credit-default-swap spreads on Greek debt have fallen to a one-month low.
The sunnier mood is not just confined to Greece. Portugal issued six-month paper earlier this month at a modest yield of 1.95%; this week’s decision by Moody’s to downgrade the country caused few ripples. Spain raised €6 billion in ten-year bonds on July 6th, tempting bids from China, among others. Laurent Fransolet of Barclays Capital says that “some of the hysterical reactions we saw in April and May have calmed down.” These developments have contributed to a rise in the euro to a two-month high against the dollar. But a bigger test of sentiment is looming. The announcement of the stress-test results for 91 European banks, due on July 23rd, will show whether the calm can endure or whether it preceded a storm.
(The Economist)
An uneasy calm
Panic about the euro zone has receded—for now
Jul 15th 2010
MOST people are not satisfied with mediocrity. But Greece’s auction of six-month treasury bills on July 13th turned inferiority into a cause for celebration. The beleaguered country managed to raise €1.6 billion ($2 billion) at a yield of 4.65% in its first venture into the markets since a €110 billion rescue package from the European Union and the IMF was secured in May.
That is hardly dazzling. The yield was still higher than when Greece issued similar paper in April, before the bail-out package was announced, and over three times what it was in January. Germany’s one-year bills yield ten times less than Greece’s six-month ones (see chart). Short-term bill auctions to roll over maturing debt are encouraged in the deal reached by Greece, the EU and the fund but the threat of an eventual debt restructuring makes investors unwilling to lend for long. Greece’s public-debt agency was forced to drop plans to auction 12-month bills. It is unlikely that Greece will attempt a sale of longer-term bonds before early 2012, and it may find few willing buyers even then because of the country’s increased debt burden.
The auction was nevertheless a relief. The yield was lower than the 5% interest rate Greece pays when it taps into the EU support package. The auction was 3.64 times oversubscribed. Although it was mostly a domestic affair, Petros Christodoulou, the debt agency’s director, says he was “pleasantly surprised by foreign investors’ demand”. Greece will try to raise up to €2.5 billion in an issue of three-month paper on July 20th.
Greece has also been getting pats on the back from its EU and IMF lenders for its progress on fiscal consolidation. George Papaconstantinou, the finance minister, this week announced that the country’s first-half budget deficit had been cut by 46% compared with last year, beating targets. On July 8th the Greek parliament passed a pension-reform bill which, if properly implemented, will radically change the country’s lavish social-security system. Credit-default-swap spreads on Greek debt have fallen to a one-month low.
The sunnier mood is not just confined to Greece. Portugal issued six-month paper earlier this month at a modest yield of 1.95%; this week’s decision by Moody’s to downgrade the country caused few ripples. Spain raised €6 billion in ten-year bonds on July 6th, tempting bids from China, among others. Laurent Fransolet of Barclays Capital says that “some of the hysterical reactions we saw in April and May have calmed down.” These developments have contributed to a rise in the euro to a two-month high against the dollar. But a bigger test of sentiment is looming. The announcement of the stress-test results for 91 European banks, due on July 23rd, will show whether the calm can endure or whether it preceded a storm.
(The Economist)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece Shipping Report Q3 2010 - New Market Report Published
New report provides detailed analysis of the Logistics market
Published on July 15, 2010
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
Greece's much-publicised fiscal and debt problems, which have prompted European Union intervention to save it from default, are definitely a dark cloud for the country's ports and shipping sector. Yet paradoxical as it may seem, there are also some indications of a silver lining. According to a report in the Times of London on May 29, the Greek shipping sector was optimistic about its immediate future. The article noted that Greek shipping interests had nearly 65mn tonnes of tanker and product carrier hulls on order in Asian yards 'to meet an unflagging demand in China and India for fuel, coal and iron ore'. The latest annual report by the Union of Greek Shipowners (UGS) noted that 'a dynamic increase in demand for raw materials has sustained the dry bulk freight market'. Additionally, the announcement in late May that the government was about to launch a tender for the Thriassio container hub concession reinforced the core view that the dire state of the Greek public finances makes public-private partnerships (PPPs) the only viable option for the Greek government to move ahead with planned infrastructure projects. The government's programme to reduce the deficit and implement structural changes specifically mentioned wider use of PPPs.
Chinese shipping company COSCO Pacific has expressed interest in the tender, as the company is seeking wider access in Greek transport infrastructure in order to improve intermodal links with its container terminal in Piraeus.
The immediate outlook is difficult. We are predicting that Greek GDP will contract by 2% again in 2010, after a 2% fall in 2009. Unemployment in double digits and public sector wage cuts will hurt domestic demand. In 2011 the economy will be flat. We are predicting average annual GDP growth over the next five years of only 0.6%. The government of Prime Minister George Papandreou will struggle to deliver the necessary spending cuts, and the rest of this year is likely to be politically turbulent with significant labour unrest.
2010 will be a standstill year at Greece's main ports. At the Port of Thessaloniki, where volume fell by 14.8% in 2008 and by another 2.3% in 2009, this year there will be marginal growth - volume will grow 0.2% to 15.718mn tonnes. At the Port of Piraeus, where there was a massive fall of 47.9% in 2008 and a 10.7% recovery in 2009, this year's growth will also be only 0.2%, taking volume handled to 11.621mn tonnes. Box traffic at the country's two key ports will be a little more dynamic, but still constrained by the Greek economic crisis.
The value of Greek trade collapsed by 15.7% in real terms last year, and will remain stuck at that low level in 2010. It will only begin to grow again in 2011. Across the five-year forecast period we believe average annual growth will be a very modest 2.6%, which nevertheless will be ahead of GDP's slow 0.6% annual expansion. We expect exports to be slightly more dynamic than imports in the five-year time horizon.
In slightly contrarian fashion, we believe that the main risks to our Greek shipping forecast lie on the upside. This is because we believe that the worst of the negative impact of the domestic economic crisis on the shipping sector has already been 'priced in'. By definition, the industry has always been outward looking and linked to global trade. We believe the combination of moderate improvement in the global economy with lower asset prices and a forced opening to the private sector in the ports and shipping business will create a potential for new investment and opportunities.
Greece Shipping Report Q3 2010: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com
New report provides detailed analysis of the Logistics market
Published on July 15, 2010
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
Greece's much-publicised fiscal and debt problems, which have prompted European Union intervention to save it from default, are definitely a dark cloud for the country's ports and shipping sector. Yet paradoxical as it may seem, there are also some indications of a silver lining. According to a report in the Times of London on May 29, the Greek shipping sector was optimistic about its immediate future. The article noted that Greek shipping interests had nearly 65mn tonnes of tanker and product carrier hulls on order in Asian yards 'to meet an unflagging demand in China and India for fuel, coal and iron ore'. The latest annual report by the Union of Greek Shipowners (UGS) noted that 'a dynamic increase in demand for raw materials has sustained the dry bulk freight market'. Additionally, the announcement in late May that the government was about to launch a tender for the Thriassio container hub concession reinforced the core view that the dire state of the Greek public finances makes public-private partnerships (PPPs) the only viable option for the Greek government to move ahead with planned infrastructure projects. The government's programme to reduce the deficit and implement structural changes specifically mentioned wider use of PPPs.
Chinese shipping company COSCO Pacific has expressed interest in the tender, as the company is seeking wider access in Greek transport infrastructure in order to improve intermodal links with its container terminal in Piraeus.
The immediate outlook is difficult. We are predicting that Greek GDP will contract by 2% again in 2010, after a 2% fall in 2009. Unemployment in double digits and public sector wage cuts will hurt domestic demand. In 2011 the economy will be flat. We are predicting average annual GDP growth over the next five years of only 0.6%. The government of Prime Minister George Papandreou will struggle to deliver the necessary spending cuts, and the rest of this year is likely to be politically turbulent with significant labour unrest.
2010 will be a standstill year at Greece's main ports. At the Port of Thessaloniki, where volume fell by 14.8% in 2008 and by another 2.3% in 2009, this year there will be marginal growth - volume will grow 0.2% to 15.718mn tonnes. At the Port of Piraeus, where there was a massive fall of 47.9% in 2008 and a 10.7% recovery in 2009, this year's growth will also be only 0.2%, taking volume handled to 11.621mn tonnes. Box traffic at the country's two key ports will be a little more dynamic, but still constrained by the Greek economic crisis.
The value of Greek trade collapsed by 15.7% in real terms last year, and will remain stuck at that low level in 2010. It will only begin to grow again in 2011. Across the five-year forecast period we believe average annual growth will be a very modest 2.6%, which nevertheless will be ahead of GDP's slow 0.6% annual expansion. We expect exports to be slightly more dynamic than imports in the five-year time horizon.
In slightly contrarian fashion, we believe that the main risks to our Greek shipping forecast lie on the upside. This is because we believe that the worst of the negative impact of the domestic economic crisis on the shipping sector has already been 'priced in'. By definition, the industry has always been outward looking and linked to global trade. We believe the combination of moderate improvement in the global economy with lower asset prices and a forced opening to the private sector in the ports and shipping business will create a potential for new investment and opportunities.
Greece Shipping Report Q3 2010: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com
tommy271
Forumer storico
Borsa Atene: Ase chiude a +2,2% su rally finanziari
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase della Borsa di Atene ha chiuso la seduta in rialzo del 2,2% a quota 1.608,76 punti con un volume di scambi relativamente consistente di 163,51 mln euro, guidato dal rally dei finanziari in scia all'offerta di fusione da 701 mln euro di Piraeus Bank.
I bancari salgono del 6,5% con Piraeus a +12,7%, Postbank a +21,5% e AteBank a +6,5%.
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase della Borsa di Atene ha chiuso la seduta in rialzo del 2,2% a quota 1.608,76 punti con un volume di scambi relativamente consistente di 163,51 mln euro, guidato dal rally dei finanziari in scia all'offerta di fusione da 701 mln euro di Piraeus Bank.
I bancari salgono del 6,5% con Piraeus a +12,7%, Postbank a +21,5% e AteBank a +6,5%.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Non so cosa pensare(
A pensare troppo ci si frigge il cervello ... specie d'estate
.
tommy271
Forumer storico
La Spagna non sta messa peggio della Grecia, solo che il peso dell'economia iberica è notevole: in grado di provocare un terremoto all'interno dell'euro.
In linea di massima potremmo definire il problema greco risolvibile con una spesa sopportabile mentre quello spagnolo è di dimensioni notevoli e difficilmente circoscrivibile.
Non credo però che il futuro sia così funesto (l'euro era dato qualche settimana fa quasi spacciato, adesso è arrivato quasi a 1,30 ...) se guardiamo ai grandi eventi "catastrofici" questi sono arrivati all'improvviso e violentemente.
Sulla Grecia già a gennaio sembrava scritto tutto il percorso ... un pò troppo anticipato e calcolato.
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
da condividere
Certo, Tommy, chi a Gennaio aveva già scritto con precisione matematico-finanziaria tutto il percorso del fallimento greco (haircut, default, uscita dall'euro, ecc.), si starà chiedendo dove avrà sbagliato
, visto che siamo a metà luglio e le cedolone vengono puntualmente onorate.... Avanti, si faccia avanti con nuove previsioni per dicembre...
Ciao, Giuseppe
Certo, Tommy, chi a Gennaio aveva già scritto con precisione matematico-finanziaria tutto il percorso del fallimento greco (haircut, default, uscita dall'euro, ecc.), si starà chiedendo dove avrà sbagliato
, visto che siamo a metà luglio e le cedolone vengono puntualmente onorate.... Avanti, si faccia avanti con nuove previsioni per dicembre...Ciao, Giuseppe
- Stato
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